By Robbie Butler
It's great to be back from our summer break and as normal with turn to the Galway Races. The week long Festival gives us a great chance to put Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) to the test.
Once again, for non-economists, Fama published a groundbreaking article in May 1970 called the "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work", which appeared in the Journal of Finance and conceptualized the idea of the efficient market hypothesis. Put simply, Fama concluded that 'the house always wins'. Applied to horse racing, it means we can't systematically beat the bookies.
For the fourth year in a row we will be putting this to the test by following leading Irish trainer Dermot Weld, as he seeks to win yet another Leading Trainer Championship at the festival. Success in 2013 was followed by losses in 2014 and a heavy loss last year, leaving the score at 2 - 1 to the bookies.
Day 1 starts at 5.15pm today. DK Weld has five horses going to post. A hypothetical stake of €2 (to win) will be wagered on on all Weld trained runners shorter than 4/1, and €1 each way on all those 4/1 or greater. Daily updates to follow…
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DAY 1 Review: The opening day started really well with Right Honourable obliging at odds of 5/4. This early promised wasn't to last however, with the remaining four horses failing to land a blow. Behind after Day 1 but with six days to go a turnaround is possible.
Stake: €10
Return €4.50
P/L: -€5.50
Total Stake to Date: €10
Total Return to Date: €4.50
Week P/L: -€5.50
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DAY 2 Review: A tiny profit reported yesterday thanks to two winning favourites and an each-way third at 10-1. Again, a decent start wasn't followed up, but with six chances today our early losses could be recouped going to the midway point. Yesterday's results yielded the following:
Stake: €10
Return €10.12
P/L: €0.12
Total Stake to Date: €20
Total Return to Date: €14.62
Week P/L: -€5.38
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DAY 3 Review: A big step backwards on Galway Plate Day, with things starting look ominously like 2015. Six horses went to post across five races but all failed to win a race, despite the fact two of these started as odd-on favourites. (both finishing second). Small consolation was found in the 6.40pm Tote Handicap when Creme De La finished 2nd at odds of 7-1
Stake: €12
Return €2.75
P/L: €9.25
Total Stake to Date: €32
Total Return to Date: €17.37
Week P/L: -€14.63
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DAY 4 Review: A very quiet day yesterday. Just two runners sent to post, the lowest number on any given day in recent years. Don't Tell No One almost got us off to a great start in the opening race. Despite finishing 3rd, the eight year old was less than half a length behind the eventual winner at odds to 11-2. Emergent was the only other runner, but couldn't manage better than 6th place in the 3.30pm Listed Arthur Guinness E.B.F. Corrib Fillies Stakes.
Stake: €4
Return €2.38
P/L: -€1.62
Total Stake to Date: €36
Total Return to Date: €19.75
Week P/L: -€16.25
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DAY 5 Review: Seven horses went to post on Friday. Just one winner however, at odds of 11/8, and an each-way 3rd at 4/1. This limited the damaged but still a loss on the day, which are added to the overall loses so far.
Stake: €14
Return €6.75
P/L: -€7.25
Total Stake to Date: €50
Total Return to Date: € 26.50
Week P/L: -€23.50
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DAY 6 Review: Saturday was a quieter day, with just four horses going to post for the Champion Trainer. Like Friday, just one winner, Firey Speech at odds of 11/4. This was almost enough to break-even on the day.
Stake: €8
Return €7.50
P/L: -€0.50
Total Stake to Date: €58
Total Return to Date: €34
Week P/L: -€24
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DAY 7 Review: The final day saw five horses go to post. With three of the odds-on favourites that morning, we probably needed all five to win to beat the market. As expected, this failed to materialise. Only Tarazani managed to get his head in front at odds of 15/8.
Stake: €10
Return €5.75
P/L: -€4.25
Total Stake to Date: €68
Total Return to Date: €39.75
Week P/L: -€28.25
**************************************************************************************************************************************************
It's great to be back from our summer break and as normal with turn to the Galway Races. The week long Festival gives us a great chance to put Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) to the test.
Once again, for non-economists, Fama published a groundbreaking article in May 1970 called the "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work", which appeared in the Journal of Finance and conceptualized the idea of the efficient market hypothesis. Put simply, Fama concluded that 'the house always wins'. Applied to horse racing, it means we can't systematically beat the bookies.
For the fourth year in a row we will be putting this to the test by following leading Irish trainer Dermot Weld, as he seeks to win yet another Leading Trainer Championship at the festival. Success in 2013 was followed by losses in 2014 and a heavy loss last year, leaving the score at 2 - 1 to the bookies.
Day 1 starts at 5.15pm today. DK Weld has five horses going to post. A hypothetical stake of €2 (to win) will be wagered on on all Weld trained runners shorter than 4/1, and €1 each way on all those 4/1 or greater. Daily updates to follow…
***************************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 1 Review: The opening day started really well with Right Honourable obliging at odds of 5/4. This early promised wasn't to last however, with the remaining four horses failing to land a blow. Behind after Day 1 but with six days to go a turnaround is possible.
Stake: €10
Return €4.50
P/L: -€5.50
Total Stake to Date: €10
Total Return to Date: €4.50
Week P/L: -€5.50
***************************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 2 Review: A tiny profit reported yesterday thanks to two winning favourites and an each-way third at 10-1. Again, a decent start wasn't followed up, but with six chances today our early losses could be recouped going to the midway point. Yesterday's results yielded the following:
Stake: €10
Return €10.12
P/L: €0.12
Total Stake to Date: €20
Total Return to Date: €14.62
Week P/L: -€5.38
***************************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 3 Review: A big step backwards on Galway Plate Day, with things starting look ominously like 2015. Six horses went to post across five races but all failed to win a race, despite the fact two of these started as odd-on favourites. (both finishing second). Small consolation was found in the 6.40pm Tote Handicap when Creme De La finished 2nd at odds of 7-1
Stake: €12
Return €2.75
P/L: €9.25
Total Stake to Date: €32
Total Return to Date: €17.37
Week P/L: -€14.63
**************************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 4 Review: A very quiet day yesterday. Just two runners sent to post, the lowest number on any given day in recent years. Don't Tell No One almost got us off to a great start in the opening race. Despite finishing 3rd, the eight year old was less than half a length behind the eventual winner at odds to 11-2. Emergent was the only other runner, but couldn't manage better than 6th place in the 3.30pm Listed Arthur Guinness E.B.F. Corrib Fillies Stakes.
Stake: €4
Return €2.38
P/L: -€1.62
Total Stake to Date: €36
Total Return to Date: €19.75
Week P/L: -€16.25
**************************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 5 Review: Seven horses went to post on Friday. Just one winner however, at odds of 11/8, and an each-way 3rd at 4/1. This limited the damaged but still a loss on the day, which are added to the overall loses so far.
Stake: €14
Return €6.75
P/L: -€7.25
Total Stake to Date: €50
Total Return to Date: € 26.50
Week P/L: -€23.50
**************************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 6 Review: Saturday was a quieter day, with just four horses going to post for the Champion Trainer. Like Friday, just one winner, Firey Speech at odds of 11/4. This was almost enough to break-even on the day.
Stake: €8
Return €7.50
P/L: -€0.50
Total Stake to Date: €58
Total Return to Date: €34
Week P/L: -€24
**************************************************************************************************************************************************
DAY 7 Review: The final day saw five horses go to post. With three of the odds-on favourites that morning, we probably needed all five to win to beat the market. As expected, this failed to materialise. Only Tarazani managed to get his head in front at odds of 15/8.
Stake: €10
Return €5.75
P/L: -€4.25
Total Stake to Date: €68
Total Return to Date: €39.75
Week P/L: -€28.25
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