By John Eakins

My fellow economists (Robbie Butler and Dave Butler), myself and a few other colleagues will be entering a relay team for the 2017 Cork City marathon on Sunday 4th June. Last year we did a decent time, 3 hours 40 minutes approx. and finished 93rd out of 689 relay teams. Dave has a previous blog post on our performance here.

We are obviously hoping to improve on that time this year around and in the last few weeks we have been pounding the pavements. Whilst running a route around your home allows you to clock up the miles and get your body conditioned, usually a much better indicator of your performance is to enter an organised race. Luckily there are a huge amount of local races which are organised in and around the Cork city area. I like doing organised races because I always tend to run faster in them compared to when I am training on my own. Clearly, the competitive streak becomes much stronger when I am racing against others than myself!

But how fast am I? Being honest, I think I am a relatively slow runner. I did two runs recently, a 4 mile and a 5 mile run and I recorded times of just under 34 minutes and a little over 43 minutes respectively. My average pace is around about 8.30-8.35 min/mile. Now I am sure that some reading this will say, “yes, that’s slow” but maybe others will say “that’s not too bad”. And that is the thing about performance – it is hard to answer the question “what is a good time for me?” because it depends on a wide range of factors.

To 'explain' performance, the approach that an economist (or econometrician) would use is to try and control for these factors using some form of statistical analysis. Interestingly, a method, analogous to this already exists in the form of an age grade score or time. Used by some race organisers to level the playing field, age grading is a way of adjusting ones performance according to age and gender. It works by comparing your time to the world record performance for a person of the same age and gender. The world record time is divided by your time to get an age graded score in percentage terms – see here. So for example for the 4 mile race my age-graded score was 52.16% and for the 5 mile race is was 51.54%. Approximate comparative levels for age grading are as follows: 90 per cent or above equal’s world class; 80 per cent or above equal’s national class; 70 per cent or above equal’s regional class; and 60 per cent or above equal’s local class. I am none of those classes (that is not a surprise to me!) but my 51/52% score doesn’t seems too bad relatively speaking. Let’s see what happens in the marathon on Sunday.

By Stephen Brosnan

Competitive balance in sport is generally considered an important determinant of an individual’s interest in sporting activities. In this month’s edition of the Journal of Sports Economics, Nalbantis et al examine the impact of fans’ perceptions of suspensefulness on their willingness-to-pay for a single-game ticket for German Bundesliga club, Stuttgart F.C. Furthermore, the authors explore whether competitive balance influences monetary decisions of supporters. The findings suggest that fans’ perception of competitiveness influence their spending behaviour, at least up to some ‘saturation’ point above which variations in competitive balance are less relevant for fans.

The issue of competitive balance has been increasingly identified as a potential issue in the National Basketball Association. Currently, four teams are competing in the NBA conference finals – the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs in the West and the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers in the East. The last number of years has seen the league dominated by two teams – the Cavs and Golden State. This year, these two teams boast a perfect 10-0 record in the playoffs sweeping past their opponents in the first two rounds (4-0) and  both currently leading their respective conference finals (2-0). In game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals, the Cavs set a new NBA record for lead in the playoffs (41 points) and eventually beat the Celtics 130-86. Similarly, Golden State brushed past the SA Spurs 136-100 in the West.

The two powerhouses of the NBA have contested the previous two NBA finals and look set for the trilogy this June. The series are tied at 1-1 which Golden State winning the title in 2015 and the Cavs claiming the title in 2016. As such, the matchup between these two franchises may be the only game involving these teams with any significant degree of uncertainty. However, these two teams boasted the highest average attendances when the played away from home during the 2016-17 regular season. This suggests that fans still attended games even though the uncertainty surrounding the outcome of those games was significantly low. To put into perspective, last year the Golden State Warriors set a new NBA record of 73-9, including 54 wins in a row from January 31, 2015, to March 29, 2016. These results suggest very little uncertainty in outcomes yet attendances increased when the Warriors came to town.  

However, many analysts have pointed out that one defining series at the end of the season may be enough to keep fans interested in the NBA. Last week NBA Commissioner Adam Silver insisted that the dominance of the two teams was “not a concern” and “we should celebrating excellence” while colour commentator Tony Fiorentino insists “parity doesn’t work as well as dominance”. While dominance by two teams in the NBA does not seem to significantly impact fans’ willingness to attend matches, it most certainly reduces incentives to stay awake until 1.30am to watch the playoffs as this writer can attest.

By David Butler

For the last three seasons I’ve recorded the predictions and success rates of Sky Sports pundit Paul Merson and BBC pundit Mark Lawrenson for English Premier League matches. The ‘Follow the Pundit!’ section on the website provided updates on the success of these football ‘experts’ who systematically predicted Premier League scores each week.

The stats for the 2016/2017 for both pundits are displayed below. Both have performed better this season. Both pundits predict the right outcome more than half of the time. Merse slightly outperforms Lawro.

The average week for Merse and Lawro will see them call six right outcomes and four wrong ones. Of the six right outcomes they usually call one correct score line,

By Stephen Brosnan

Previously, Declan Jordan wrote about the inclusion of sport in the manifesto of various political parties in the run up to the 2016 general election in Ireland. The United Kingdom general election is scheduled to take place on 8 June 2017. As such, I thought it may be interesting to look at the coverage of sport in the manifestos of the three major political parties in the UK – the Conservative Party, Labour and Liberal Democrats.

Sport participation is generally considered to provide a multitude of positive benefits to individuals and society including but not limited to (i) reductions in crime (ii) increases in social capital and social integration (iii) improvements in health through physical activity and (iv) improvements in education outcomes. Studies examining the impact of sport participation on happiness (Huang & Humphreys, 2012), future income (Dewenter & Giessing, 2015), labour market outcomes (Lechner, 2015) have generally found sport participation to provide societal benefits. However, despite these widely held beliefs regarding the positive impact of sport participation on education, health and social issues, the major political parties in the UK tend to allocate very little by way of interest in developing and outlining strategic objectives for sporting activities, at least in their election manifestos.

Table 1 Words in UK Major Party Manifesto Dedicated to Sport

Table 1 shows the word counts attributed to sport by the major political parties in each of the last three general elections.

The Labour Party have dedicated 206 words to sport in their manifesto which generally is aimed at decreasing the cost of Premier League matches and advocating supporters trusts appointing at least two directors on the board of British football clubs.

The Liberal Democrats allocate 29 words dedicated to objectives for sport. These are related to introducing ‘safe standing’ at football clubs, requiring the Sports Grounds Safety Authority to prepare guidance for implementing this change.

The Conservative Party, the current governing party and expected by most to comfortably win the general election, have no words attributed to the development of sport in their manifesto for government.

This apparent lack of interest towards sport and sporting activities is perhaps surprising firstly given that the United Kingdom is considered by many to be a leading sporting nation and secondly given the many societal benefits that can spillover from sporting activities.

Recently, I have explored the impact of sports participation on crime in 323 local authorities in England. The results of the working paper indicate that sport participation reduces crime rates for both property and person crimes in English local authorities between 2012 and 2015. The findings suggest that sports participation has a stronger effect on person crimes as opposed to property crimes. The results show that a 10% increase in sports participation leads to a fall in person crimes of 1.30 and 1.56% while a 10% increase in sports participation rates leads to a fall in property crimes of between 0.64 and 0.73%.

By Robbie Butler

Followers of the League of Ireland will be very familiar with the league's ups and downs over the past number of decades. Sadly, there have been more downs than ups, with the league undergoing constant change and restructuring. Myself and David discuss the evolution of this since 1970 here.

We are not the only economists researching the League of Ireland. Prof. Barry Reilly from the University of Sussex recently presented during the same session as I at the 2017 Irish Economic Association Conference. His paper considers the effect days of the week have on attendance in the League of Ireland.

Unlike most leagues where broadcasting rights are by far the most important source of match day revenue, the domestic league here is difference. Gate receipts remain very important and account for 1/3 of all revenue on match days. Reilly states that this places the league 3rd in Europe, behind only Switzerland and Scotland. 

Getting fans to games has been a problem and continues to be. Traditionally, match days in Ireland were Sunday. This changed in the early 1990s when Sky Sports started to broadcast live Premier League games on Sunday afternoons. League of Ireland clubs were compensated for this (mainly in the form of floodlights) and moved games to Friday and Saturday nights.

The introduction of Summer Soccer in 2003 has required the use of additional days of the week to accommodate cup matches and a two week summer break. Reilly finds the use of non-traditional days (such as Monday and Tuesday) has a significant, negative impact on attendance. The use of these days should be reconsidered by League organisers. The author suggests moving earlier rounds of the cup, where attendances are on average much lower than league games, as one possibly way to overcome fixture congestion. 

Interestingly, attendance at cup games soars from the quarter-finals onward. It is suggested that two-legged cup semi-finals be adopted to help boost club coffers. 

By Robbie Butler

In my most recent post I consider how Fantasy Premier League points can go someway to showing which players are under/over performing based on the value there are assigned in the game, and the number of points they have collected so far this season. As the season draws to a close we almost have a full picture of performance and can see which players are performing best.

With this in mind, I decided to consider the top performing English players to see what the England team might look like if England manager Gareth Southgate picked the first eleven based on Fantasy Premier League points. This analysis doesn't include players not playing in the Premier League, so there is no place for Joe Hart even though he may have outperformed the goalkeeping pick had he been based in the Premier League.

Assuming a 4-4-2 formation, the team would read: Heaton (Burnley), Cahill (Chelsea), Walker (Spurs), Daniels (Bournemouth), Baines (Everton), Alli (Spurs), Sterling (Man City), Milner (Liverpool), Barkley (Everton), Kane (Spurs) and Defoe (Sunderland). The most recent England international included  four of this list with Walker, Sterling, Alli and Defoe all starting in the World Cup Qualifier against Lithuania in March. Ross Barkley was an unused substitute. 

Interestingly, the team includes the uncapped Charlie Daniels, who at 30, is probably unlikely to be included in an England team at this stage of his career. James Milner is also retired from international football and very unlike to appear again for the Three Lions. 

By David Butler

Following the Monaco versus Juventus match last Tuesday Ireland’s well-known pundit Eamon Dunphy waxed lyrical about the Italians defensive talents. Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci were mentioned in the same breath as other Italian greats such as Franco Baresi, Paolo Maldini and Fabio Cannavaro. His argument was provocative and based on the premise that great defending is not appreciated as much as it should be in the modern game. If my memory serves me right, Pep Guardiola’s style was mentioned as the antithesis to the approach of the Italian grafters.

Does Mr.Dunphy have a point? If we use end of season player awards as a measure of ‘appreciation’, it might be possible to ask if defending is held in the same esteem. How often are defenders talents appreciated above their colleagues in alternative positions and has this changed over time?

Below is the data by position for First Division/Premier League awards based on the following recognized honours.

1. Premier League Player of the Season (PLPOS) - The recipient is chosen by a panel assembled by the league's sponsor, consisting of members of "football's governing bodies, the media and fans". (first season awarded: 1994-1995)

2. PFA Players' Player of the Year (PFA Players) – the winner is chosen by a vote amongst the members of the players' trade union, the Professional Footballers' Association. (first season awarded: 1973-1974)

3. PFA Fans' Player of the Year (PFA Fans) - The shortlist is compiled by the members of the Professional Footballers' Association (the PFA), and then the winner is voted for by the fans of the league. (first season awarded: 2001-2002)

4. FWA Footballer of the Year (FWA) - The winner is selected by a vote amongst the members of the Football Writers' Association (FWA), which comprises around 400 football journalists based throughout England. (first season awarded: 1947-1948)

5. PFA Young Player of the Year (PFA-YPY) The winner is chosen by a vote amongst the members of the players' trade union, the Professional Footballers' Association. (first season awarded: 1973-1974)

I could access data on 194 awards since 1947. 82% of the honours have gone to midfield and forward players. The table below shows the numbers by the award and position.

The FWA honours are the most interesting to consider as they go back to 1947. Maybe Mr.Dunphy has a point. Interestingly, the Football Writers Association decorated defenders more in the past. From 1947-1959 seven defenders won the awards. Five defenders were given the title from 1960-1969. Four from 1970-1979 and three from 1980-1989. Since Steve Nicol won the award in 1989 no defender has scooped the prize...Toby Alderweireld shouldn't get his hopes up any time soon.

For the other awards, the YPY always seems to be an attacker’s prize, with Kevin Beattie and Kyle Walker being rare defensive exceptions.

Do the players themselves appreciate defensive talents more than other parties such as sponsors, fans or writers? Maybe not anymore. For the first two years of the award (to players by players), defenders won the prize – Norman Hunter and Colin Todd. This was followed by goalkeepers, Pat Jennings and two years after that Peter Shilton. Attackers have dominated since. Gary Pallister, Paul McGrath and John Terry are the only other defenders to win the award from their colleagues.

Your left asking why has there been a decline in defenders getting the awards, especially since the Premier League came along? While, of course, the game is about scoring goals, the trend is interesting to think about. Have attackers drastically improved or defenders become weaker? Do modern football writers just have a love for attacking? The mind can also race away with conspiracy theories - is it for commercial reasons that defenders seem to be less appreciated now? Are forwards easier to market the product with? Despite the frequency of 0-0's, the score lines where you would expect to see 'good defending', these are usually given the graveyard slot on highlights shows. 

Next, it will be interesting to see whether a similar pattern exists for the Italian awards.

By David Butler

While it’s always a good idea to treat ‘paper talk’ as cheap talk, I couldn’t help but notice the papers claim that “Manchester United will have to make Antoine Griezmann the Premier League's best-paid player if they are serious about signing him this summer - and a deal could cost the club £155m” (Daily Mail – May 2nd).Today, it was reported that “Monaco forward Kylian Mbappe has not been the subject of a £72m bid from Manchester United (Sky Sports). These types of transfer values are extreme.

After paying €105 million (£89.3 million) plus bonuses of €5 million for Paul Pobga in August 2016, the Red Devils could break the world record again. Given that Pogba has hardly set the world on fire on the pitch (particularly in light of his cost), it makes me wonder about Manchester United’s motivations for purchasing players. Specifically, whether getting returns to investment on the pitch is as important a factor in their transfer spending as it once was?

While not questioning the talent Griezmann, Mbappe etc., ‘efficiency’ may not be a word you would associate with spending £155m on one player. Could one player ever justify this fee on the field and/or off the field in terms of other commercial revenue such as merchandising, endorsements etc.? Griezmann is 26 also, so it could hardly be argued that his re-sale value would be higher.

The literature on signalling theory may offer some alternative insights.

Performances and results are not as they once were for Manchester United. This type of spending, while obviously attempting to improve the squad, may also be an attempt to signal quality (and perhaps hope) for a generation of fans use to far superior performances. Also, it may ensure that a new generation of fans don’t get enticed by rival clubs or other ‘sellers’. Maybe paying extravagant sums is as much about flexing financial muscle as it is about attempting to win leagues for Manchester United.

There is a literature in economics that argues that firms make costly signals through advertising. This is a cost incurred to separate themselves from lower quality sellers. Sometimes for firms the content of this advertising does not matter and can even be irrelevant. Just the fact that they are advertising and expressing some sort of financial clout can be a means to signal information. It can often work too as low quality sellers have little or nothing to gain from advertising.

Perhaps a mix of motivations have to be considered when values such as £155m are suggested. While, of course, Manchester United maybe in a financial position to afford a player at the value , I’m sceptical that the motivations for paying this much can be based on traditional performance-related metrics.

Maybe advertising quality and making a costly signal by means of a marquee signing is as a much a goal of Manchester United as any other when it comes to transfers of late?

Then again, maybe this is a backdoor strategy to profit-maximising that considers the long run future in tough times. Perhaps these type of mega transfers will ensure a steady flow of new young fans? If buying a player for £155m is about advertising as much as anything else, maybe such sums could be rationalised.