By Ed Valentine

When the Premier League announced the latest TV deal totalling more than £5 billion earlier this year Richard Scudamore claimed the product offered is so attractive because it’s unscripted drama and that anything can happen at the top or bottom of the table. Though there seems to be little change in the top four or five clubs from season to season fans do get treated to occasional shock results.

The graph below demonstrates that last season the Premier League was subject of a “Peloton” effect where Chelsea were the breakaway leaders with a few followers off the pace behind them and then a cluster of about 13 clubs lagging down the road.

By Robbie Butler

I've attended all three home qualifiers at the Aviva Stadium for the Euro 2016 qualifying campaign. Despite the fact we are unbeaten at home, have defeated Georgia in Tbilisi, and managed to grab a fantastic point against world champions Germany in Gelsenkirchen, it's now likely the Boys in Green won't even finish in the top three places in Group D. People have argued that this is down to defeat against Scotland last Novemeber in Park Head. Whilst true, I believe another factor is the points Ireland have dropped in the Avivia.

Since the turn of the year, the team has secured two draws in Dublin. Four points were left behind. Only three were lost in Scotland. Upon reflection I started to consider how often I have watched the Irish team play out battling draws. Recently I can recall these against Germany (home and away), Italy (home and away), Russia, Sweden, Slovakia, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic (I'm sure there are more!), all of which occurred from the time in Croke Park to today. Ireland don;t lose to many games to qualify for major tournaments, they draw too many. 

The first graphic below presents data on all qualifying games (excluding play-off matches) from 2002 - 2014.The country that has drawn the most qualifiers during the period - Republic of Ireland. 

Israel have not qualified for a major competition since the 1970 World Cup. Bulgaria have failed to qualify for a European Championship of World Cup since 1998.Serbia did qualify for Euro 2004, and the 2006 and 2010 World Cups, but they also won most of the list (30 wins). Northern Ireland did not qualify for any major tournament during the time period. 

While I shudder to that that Ireland are not one of the best 24 teams in Europe at the moment, should the team fail to reach the Euro 2016 Finals, the country's win ranking in qualifiers from 2002 to 2014 would support this uncomfortable reality. Ireland have won 25/60 games, a win rate that places the team in 24th spot. This is behind countries like Norway, Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Bosnia, Romania and Turkey.

Draws might have done in the past, but winning games, especially those at home, is what gets countries to finals.

By Robbie Butler

It’s that time of year again in Ireland. People head west to Galway for the seven-day racing festival. For many this is the highlight of the Irish horse racing calendar. For the third year in a row we will be following leading trainer Dermot Weld, as he seeks to win yet another Leading Trainer Championship at the festival. Success in 2013 was followed by a loss last year, leaving the score at 1 - 1. 

Each day we’ll follow Weld trained horses and put Fama’s ground-breaking article "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work",  which conceptualised the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), to the test. A hypothetical stake of €2 (to win) will be wagered on on all Weld trained runners shorter than 4/1, and €1 each way on all those 4/1 or greater. Daily updates to follow…

DAY 1
A decent start on our quest to beat the bookies. Six horses went to post, three of whom were favourite. Two short priced runners could only finish second, while Sierra Sun at 9/1 was a neck 5th and just out of the placings. However, True Solitaire (6/4) and Harasava (9/4) both obliged, and Defining Year (5/1) finished 3rd in the 5.45pm. 

Stake: €12.00     Return: €13.75
Profit: €1.75   Week P/L: €1.75

DAY 2
Our decent start on Day 1 was wiped out. Again, six horses went to post, four of whom were favourite. However, no return is reported. An early blow but there is still time to recover.

Stake: €12.00     Return: €0.00
Loss: €12.00   Week P/L: - €10.25

DAY 3
Just four DK Weld runners went to post on day three. Stuccodor almost got us off to a flying start but was out-battled on the run in and could only finish second. Time to Inspire (5/4) did get into the winners enclosure but the other two runners (Shahzeena and New Agenda) did not. Another loss today. 

Stake: €8.00     Return: €5.50
Loss: €2.50   Week P/L: - €12.75

DAY 4
For the second time this week, DK failed to saddle a winner. However, the damage was limited due to some big priced each way success. A number of non-runners resulted in just five runners going to post. Waheeb's second appearance this week saw him finish third at 7/1 while Grecian Tiger, also reappearing for a second time, finished third at 10/1. Still a loss on the day. 

Stake: €10.00     Return: €6.50
Loss: €3.50   Week P/L: - €16.25

DAY 5
More frustration on Day 5. Five horses went to post; three finished as runners up, while Tandem was just outside the place money at 7/1. No success to report. 

Stake: €10.00     Return: €0.00
Loss: €10.0   Week P/L: - €26.25

DAY 6
The trend for the week continued on the second last day. Just four runners. First Figaro did limited the damage, winning the last race. The other three starters were all placed but at odds short than 4/1. 

Stake: €8.00     Return: €3.82
Loss: €4.18   Week P/L: - €30.43

DAY 7
Just one winner on the final day and at odds at 1/3 it did little to arrest the damage done earlier in the week. Just three runs in total meant a small loss on the day

Stake: €6.00     Return: €2.76
Loss: €3.24   Week P/L: - €33.67

Outcome
A pretty rough week all told. After a great start on Day 1, losses were reported on every other day. Nearly a dozen second placed horse meant it was a story of what could have been. A total stake of €66 saw a loss of €33.67. For the second year in a row the market has beaten our strategy. 

The great thing about this however is that there is always next year. Roll on 2016! 

By Sean O'Connor

Last Wednesday (15/7/15),  the Major League Soccer’s Players Union (MLSPU) released its latest survey on player’s wages for the 2015 season. Rather than discuss the results ad nauseam, the table below indicates the top 20 earners in the league, along with a number of other players who may be of interest to both Irish fans and supporters of English teams.

By John Considine

Two days ago, the Irish Times raised the issue of the GAA distributing statistics on their games.  The piece by Andy McGeady highlighted the range of people currently engaged in collecting such statistics and the possibility for some action by the governing body.  It could be inferred that the market for GAA statistics needed greater regulation.  While I would have some sympathy with this view, there are many issues that would need to be addressed.

McGeady pointed out that there is a commercial market for such material, e.g. GaelicStats.com.  There are also other sites from which interested parties can gather data, e.g. dontfoul.wordpress.com.  In addition, many media outlets provide some basic statistics on the games they cover.  Therefore, one might wonder why there is the need for the GAA to collect (or purchase) and distribute such statistics.  Who would benefit from such a change?  Not Rob Carroll of GaelicStats.com (unless the GAA purchased his services to collect the statistics).  The media might get the statistics cheaper than having to purchase them.  The GAA and the wider public might benefit from a greater evidenced based discussion of the games.  However, the case for greater GAA intervention is far from settled.

For the moment, let us go with the McGeady suggestion.  It is possible to read the McGeady piece as suggesting the GAA coordinating the collection and distribution of statistics from county teams.  Alternatively, the GAA could outsource the collection of data to a professional firm like Opta or GaelicStats.  Or, it could use its army of nationwide volunteers to collect the data.  If the GAA desired then it could establish a GAAStats wiki.  In this case they could have those who use the stats collection apps on their phones to submit their data to a central system.  The central system would facilitate some cross checking and verification of the data.  It may not have the internal consistency of an Opta system but it could benefit from the wisdom of crowds.  Such a system is a possibility.  However, it would require some planning and regulation.

The biggest issue would involve deciding on the exact definition of the data to be collected.  Let me illustrate some of the issues using data on the 2015 Munster Senior Hurling Final between Tipperary and Waterford.  I'm going to use the stats provided by the broadcaster of the live event (RTE) and two newspapers (Irish Examiner and Irish Independent).  Below are the scoring statistics.  The numbers in blue font are "correct" but many of those in black font are open to interpretation.

The problem comes from the definition of a scoring chance.  Are balls that trickle wide over the end line defined as a scoring chance?  Are all balls that that the goalkeeper collects from an opposing player defined as a scoring chance?  What happens where a player has possession in the middle of the field, 50m from goal, is unchallenged, and decides to play the ball into a team mate 10m from goal?  It is clear that there would need to be some agreement on what constitutes a scoring chance.  Defining this is a bigger coordination problem for a wiki but it remains a problem for Opta and others.  The commercial operations would also need to answer these questions and train the coders appropriately.

The numbers in red font (above) are a problem that is easier to explain and clarify.  It seems that 65s are classified as frees.  The denominator is harder to explain.  Waterford committed 11 fouls.  What frees are not included in the denominator?  Ones that are outside the scoring range? Again there would need to be some common understanding on these issues.

Both teams hit one free wide.  They also struck one wide each from a side line puck - something not included in the statistics above.

The difficulty with definition carries over into what we might call the "possession" statistics.  Here are the statistics from RTE, the Irish Independent, and the Irish Examiner.  Not all sources agree on the stats to be collected and there is some disagreement on the exact numbers.

The stats on discipline also show a difference of one in the frees Tipperary conceded.  A possible explanation is the 13m conceded by Tipperary on a Waterford free during the second half.  It is interesting to note that Waterford players attracted a yellow card for over 50% of their fouls.  It is also interesting that they conceded 5 frees to Tipperary's one foul in the second half.

What other statistics should be included and how would they be defined?  These are all questions that would need to be considered.  What should we make of the fact that there were 17 side line pucks (with 13 of those going to one team)?  Or is it important to know that both teams got two 65s?  Do we need to know the number of hand passes in a game (59 with one team performing 37)?

What statistics would we need to examine the role of the "sweeper"?  It is hard to know.  However, some numbers might suggest that there is greater variation to the "sweeper" role than is acknowledged.  Padraic Maher (Tipperary) collected the ball on three occasions where it was battled or blocked by the Tipperary full-back.  By contrast, Tadhg de Burca (Waterford) got three hand passes from his full-back.  There was also a difference in what each sweeper did with the ball.  Maher accounted for 33% of all Tipperary hand passes on the day (and he also delivered a few short stick passes).  By contrast, De Burca accounted for about 5% of Waterford's hand passes.

McGeady's suggestion is a good one but it will require a bit of thought.  Maybe the GAA should facilitate this discussion.

By David Butler

Following the Republic of Ireland’s 1-1 draw with Scotland in June the 42.ie published an article written by John O’Sullivan that discussed the difficulties Irish international footballers faced in light of globalised world football. The story is not inherently new to football fans in this country, and while not doubting its complexity, goes something along these lines – there are now fewer opportunities for Irish players to develop their skills with elite English clubs and given the relative weakness of our own domestic league, we are failing to develop footballers to compete as successfully at a senior international level as we have done in the past.

John’s analysis and the comments section are thought-provoking. The usual candidates for explaining our failure to develop talent are discussed.  Poor underage footballing infrastructure, outdated or narrow coaching methods, weather conditions, the disconnect between domestic footballing institutions and a weak League of Ireland are all mooted in one form or another. There is merit in many of John’s points and also from the Irish fans who have responded, several of whom clearly have experience working at a grassroots level. 

Here are some numbers on the issue of talent development and the progression to the Republic of Ireland senior team. I concentrate on our U-21 level as it is a common place from which succession to the senior team occurs. 

From the 18th of May 2006, when the Irish U-21s defeated Azerbaijan until the 10th of September 2012, when Ireland beat Italy 4-2, the Irish U-21s have played 45 times. I could access data for the squad for 40 of these matches (4 of the 5 missing matches were also non-competitive). The data was collected from a range of sources including FAI archives, UEFA archives, RTE reports, Sky Sports reports and Irish Times reports.  Any player that played on the senior team before playing U-21 was not included in the analysis – there was only one player to my knowledge that this was true for, Aiden McGeady.

Here’s the scoop.

1. Over these 40 games considered between 2006 and 2012 the Republic of Ireland U-21s called up 137 players.

2. 29 (21%) of these U-21s were later capped at a senior international level for the Republic of Ireland.

3. 12 (9%) of these U-21’s have recorded 10 or more senior international caps – 7 were born in Dublin, 3 were born outside of the capital and 2 were born outside of the Republic.

4. Of these 12 players (that we could assume have ‘made it’ at a senior level given that they have 10 caps) the average and median number of U-21 caps they recorded was 9.

5. The players capped the most at an U-21 level were Joseph Mason (21 caps), Shane Redmond (21 caps), Shane Duffy (20 caps) and Owen Garvan (16 caps). Only Shane Duffy, who switched allegiance from Northern Ireland, has recorded a senior international cap.

While it's unrealistic to expect every U-21 international to progress to a senior level, my intuition tells me that other countries have higher progression rates. These numbers also raise further questions. In particular, whether or not Ireland should cut their losses on an U-21 player if they are not ready to progress after collecting a dozen or so U-21 caps?