By David Butler

According to Met Éireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, it rains in Ireland approximately 150 days a year along the east and south east coasts, to about 225 days a year in parts of the west of Ireland.  Inclement conditions makes it hard for those living here to exercise outdoors from September to March. Playing surfaces commonly flood in the winter months. Even if the wet conditions don’t stop you, bad weather often makes for more of an unpleasant experience.  I often wonder whether we might be a fitter nation in the summer months owing to our climate?

Now that April has arrived the uptake of one super public health initiative will likely get going again - organised road running. This usually comes in the format of races, usually between 3km and 10km. There seems to be an increase in the frequency of these events over the past decade. Many races serve the function of fundraisers for sporting clubs and often a proportion of the proceeds are given to charity. In Munster these events are usually located in rural areas or suburban towns.  I would guess that the same is probably true for much of the country given the economics of organising these races. Locating a race outside of major urban areas probably ensures lower organisation costs.  The Irish times estimated the cost of holding a race in Dublin some time ago, something which is expensive given the price of road closures and policing.  

The personal costs of taking part in these events are low, the only sporting equipment needed is relatively suitable footwear. The entry fee is approximately €10. Importantly, the races are inclusive, accommodating all runners from serious athletes to amateurs and even children that just want to run for fun. Given the health benefits and positive externalities (a great community spirit materialises), these events may warrant support or subsidies from local councils. 

Below is the number of road roads, fun runs, trail races and mountain races taking place in the counties of Munster between April and August. I gathered these from numerous blogs and websites online. Cork leads the way.  I could find 126 events in total.  

By Robbie Butler

One of the many tasks of the economist is to try and make predictions . Following the onset of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and subsequent economic collapse in many countries, the Economics profession came in for criticism.
Many questioned how such an event could happen and how economists generally failed to see it coming. Addressing the London School of Economics in November 2008 Queen Elizabeth II quizzed academics "If these things were so large, how come everyone missed them?"

One need only look at Ireland to see how inaccurate forecasts can be. As late as October 2008 the Department of Finance, ESRI, IMF and Central Bank were all predicting a contraction in economic activity of less than 1% of GDP the following year. By January 2009 this had risen to between 3.5% and 4%. The actually contraction was closer to 9%.

Should we beat ourselves up? Maybe not, making accurate predictions is hard and there is a substantial amount  of uncertainty involved.  We can draw an analogy here to Premier League predictions at the start of the season - a competition that could be considered a 'semi-closed' system and an environment where an outcome could be easier to predict. The table below is an abridged version of predictions from different individuals last August courtesy of The Guardian.

In the article there is a picture of Claudio Ranieri with a caption underneath that reads “Claudio Ranieri may struggle to keep Leicester City in the top flight”. That said, I don’t blame the predictors. I had similar thoughts myself.

By David Butler

Over the past few months a growing number of Premier Leagues matches (in addition to other sporting events) have been broadcast by Snapchat as a ‘live story’. For those unfamiliar with the  technology, Snapchat is a global image and video messaging app that is freely available on smart phones.  It offers a new advertising platform given its massive user base. Live stories are compilations of photos and videos from Snapchatters at events and locations around the world.

According to Snapchat these live stories “typically appear for 24 hours”. Once you are in the location of a live story (inside a football ground for instance) you can make a contribution and it may be uploaded to the live story for the world to see. For instance, if you were inside the Britannia Stadium last Monday night you could send a Snapchat  image or video to the live story of Stoke vs Tottenham.

Perhaps broadcasters are already compensated for a live story, but it got me thinking whether broadcasting through this medium infringed on the rights of TV companies who have paid for exclusive access to Premier League matches. Albeit amateur footage, anyone with a smart phone could have seen action from the Britannia last Monday. Three of the four goals were shown. One didn’t need a Sky Sports subscription to catch lots of highlights for free.  The Premier League and Sky strongly support the 3pm blackout – I’m not sure if Snapchat stories are exempt from this too?

Live streaming through the internet seems to be the big challenge for companies like Sky going forward. While it’s clearly not the same quality of product now, is it too big of a step to think of phones having the technology to perfectly stream games to others outside of the stadium from where they are sitting in years to come? At concerts and cinemas I often see that attendees can be asked to leave if they are seen recording any of the material. Should this rule apply to those inside a stadium at a live sporting event?

The threat of smart phones and apps like Snapchat may not be worrying big broadcasters yet.  Evidently, they are still handing enormous sums over for Premier League TV deals. That said live streaming through smart phones  may be something to keep an eye on going forward - after all, these devices and the internet in general are only going one way!

By Robbie Butler

Anyone that’s been watching the incredible Leicester City story this season must be wondering what has happened to Marc Albrighton. In many ways, Albrighton is a microcosm of the club’s story. The 26 year old winger was released by Aston Villa at the end of last season (official statement), having signed for the club as an eight year old, making over one hundred senior appearances. Born and raised just fourteen miles north-east of Birmingham city, Albrighton recently said “It was a real shock when Villa let me go…I was led to believe I was getting a contract, and then I found out two days after the season finished that I wasn’t”.

This quote illustrates the precarious position many footballers find themselves in at the end of each season. The footballer’s contractual position is quite unique. Breaking of contracts frequently occurs. Seeking “permanent” status on the back of multiple contracts, as almost every other member of the labour force seeks, has yet to happen. Albrigton, like all football players, has a very short window to earn a living and hopefully secure his future. Becoming unemployed last May must have been a very stressful situation. I’m sure the offer of a four-year contract from Leicester City was very welcome and ensured financial stability until he was thirty.

What’s happened since is simply remarkable. Albrighton, deemed surplus to requirements by now already relegated Aston Villa, is a maximum of eight points away from winning a Premier League medal. From a football perspective this is every player’s dream. The greatest benefits of this season will surely be economic.

Albrigton’s CV may include a Premier League medal, will include Champions League football and who knows what else. Leicester are in line for a financial windfall from both their Premier League finishing position and Champions League football. Albrigton may see an improved contract offer or an extension to the current deal. He may win his first full England international cap to add to his U20 and U21 caps. Endorsements may also follow. As a Premier League winner, if Leicester prevail, he should have no problem securing contracts well into his thirties. He will also be an attractive proposition for cash-rich clubs in China, the Middle-East and the MLS. In short, he is weeks away from securing his financial future.

Of all the bad decisions those in charge of Aston Villa have made over the past number of years, surely releasing Marc Albrighton must rank amongst the worst.

By Robbie Butler

The 2016 SSE Airtricity League of Ireland Premier Division is seven games into the season and the league table has a familiar look already. Dundalk FC are top. Champions in 2014 and 2015, if Dundalk retain their crown they will become only the 4th club in the history of the League to win three consecutive titles, and follow in the footsteps of Shamrock Rovers (1984/85-1986/87), Waterford (1967/68-1969/70) and the now defunct Cork United (1940/41-1942/43).

Followers of the top European Leagues might think this is very much the norm. Bayern Munich look set to win their fourth consecutive league title next month. Juventus as closing in on a remarkable 5th Scudetto (Italian league title) in a row, matching Inter’s five-in-a-row from 2005/6-2009/10. Barcelona won three La Liga titles from 2008/9-2010/11. Celtic are set to make it five and counting since 2011/12.

The League of Ireland is somewhat different. The recently published Football and Money: A Soccernomics Guide presents data on dominance in twenty European leagues since the 1960s. The League of Ireland stands out for two main reasons:

1. Firstly, the most league champions wins by a club over the last 50 years stands at just 7 (Shamrock Rovers), the lowest on the list.
2. The league has the highest number of league championship winners over the last 50 years at 15 (Athlone Town, Bohemians, Cork Celtic, Cork City, Cork Hibernians, Derry City, Drogheda United, Drumcondra, Dundalk, Limerick United, Shamrock Rovers, Shelbourne, Sligo Rovers, St. Patrick's Athletic and Waterford).

​What also struck me about the league is a club that currently have the joint lowest number of points (4) in the Premier League this season; Sligo Rovers. The Bit o' Red were league champions just over three years ago. Relegation is a possibility this season and would not be the first time a champion of recent years were relegated. League of Ireland clubs seems follow a rise and decline pattern. A number of years building up to a league title, followed by a period of slow, or in some cases rapid, decline.
​
The figures below present the league position of the eight most recent champions in the Leagues since the 1997/98 season.

From these illustrations it should be clear to see that Dundalk's current position is not as one might expect given the past twenty years. The Co. Louth based club appear to be bucking the trend to date. Most clubs go through a very similar pattern and in some cases two or more cycles can be identified.

For example, Bohemians appear to have gone through three cycles. Drogheda United are on the decline in a second cycle. This might also be said of both Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athletic. Sligo Rovers fans must be worried. Their decline is in full swing and they could go the way of previous champions such as Cork City and Drodegha United to be relegated. 

Dundalk's recent dominance is bettered only by Shelbourne. The Dublin club weren't outside the top three between 1998 and 2006 and were crowned champions no less than six times during that period. Since then they have suffered two relegations and lie just one point off the bottom of the second tier of Irish football. 

by Declan Jordan

Recently I posted on this blog about the potential for taxation measures to address some of the negative effects of Ireland's problem with gambling addiction. In the course of it I noted the substantial difference between the rate of betting tax (1% paid by bookmakers) and the VAT rate (23%), and suggested that there was scope for an increase in the betting tax (among other suggestions) which could be paid by the bookmakers or by punters.

I received an email from a UK colleague who took issue with my suggestion that the negative effects of gambling (internalising the external effects) could be achieved by punters paying taxes (especially at a higher rate) on their bets. As I reflected on the points, I realised he was right and that this element of my suggestion could in fact worsen the problem for gambling addicts. As he pointed out, there is a difference between alcohol consumption and betting consumption. An increase in the price of alcohol (through higher excise for example) should reduce the quantity consumed, albeit at a slow rate given alcohol's price inelasticity. For gambling however, the difficulties arise from the total value of money gambled and the difficulties this poses for addicts, so an increase in the price of gambling (by raising a tax levied on punters) would increase the overall value of bets and probably exacerbate the financial difficulties (and ensuing personal and social difficulties) for problem gamblers.

I think this means higher taxes would have to be borne by the bookmakers, and not passed on to punters. My other suggestions, a higher bookmaker-paid betting tax and/or a levy on bookmaker profits would still be beneficial in my opinion where the revenue is directed into education about and support services to those with gambling problems. This would mean ending the situation where revenue from betting taxes are largely invested in the horse racing and bloodstock industries to keep the vicious cycle going. The tax on bookmaker profits may be preferable to a high betting tax since it would be easier to collect and monitor where there is such substantial online gambling.

The conclusion I've drawn is that it would seem very difficult to internalise the external effects of gambling on an individual basis - and this makes sense when one considers that gambling addicts impose costs largely on themselves (and families) through their behaviour. This would mean the societal costs would need to be internalised in the aggregate.

There are two other initiatives that should also be mentioned.

My correspondent made the very useful suggestion that a reliable national estimate of the prevalence of problem gambling and gambling addiction would be very beneficial in Ireland to inform policy and I agree. 

I think also as part of the policy measures to address the problems of gambling there should be a ban on advertising and sponsorship by bookmakers, similar to that in place for tobacco companies and to a limited degree for alcohol. 

By David Butler

The Follow the Pundit! page on this website keeps tabs on pundits who systematically predict scores in the English Premier League.  

Perhaps the most famous mystic is ex Arsenal and Aston Villa footballer Paul Merson. So how is the Sky Sports pundit getting on this season? After predicting 313 score lines, Merse has forecasted 44% of the match outcomes correctly. He has predicted the correct score line 7% of the time.  

As per last season, Merse overestimates the performance of some teams and underestimates the performance of others. This is a common pattern. Below is a Premier League table that shows the aggregation of Merson's predictions over the course of the 2015/2016  Premier League season. Merse has overestimated Arsenal’s performance by 24 points and Chelsea’s by 21. West Brom fans will be most aggrieved. He has underestimated their performances by 25 points and his predictions (if all correct) would mean that the baggies are rock bottom, collecting just 15 points!

Interestingly, on the 4th of September 2015 Sky Sports published how Merse thought the final table would look. It’s looking impossible that his predictions will be able to reflect this estimate with only a few rounds of matches remaining this season. That said, his individual predictions have reflected that he believed Norwich, Sunderland and West Brom would all struggle.  Leicester City are the elephant in the room of course, but who could have predicted their rise?
 
It may seem that Merse is not doing great with his predictions but he is performing just as well as  other pundits who make forecasts. To see similar statistics for Mark Lawrenson and Ian Holloway, check out the Follow the Pundit! page. This recommendation should come with a health warning for Aston Villa fans however (Lawro hasn't predicted Villa would score since Christmas!)

On Wednesday the 6th of April both Robbie Butler and myself are participating in a WIT Sports Seminar from 2pm.  At this I will be presenting more data on estimates made by pundits.  The title of the paper (with John Eakins & Robbie Butler)  is called Mystics and the Market – An Empirical Analysis of Premier League Score Predictions.

By Robbie Butler

According to Irish state broadcaster RTE work published in the weekly general medical journal The Lancet, states that Irish women will be the second most obese in Europe by 2025. Speaking on RTE Radio One’s Morning Ireland today, Professor Donal O'Shea of University College Dublin said this situation could become almost impossible to reverse unless immediate action is taken by government. He went onto say that Ireland has moved from being one of the thinnest countries in Europe in the 1960s and 1970s, to being one of the heaviest.

An increase in average incomes has played a large part in this. So too is the fact that Irish diets contain more sugar and salt than at any other time in our history. Diet is just one side of the coin. The other is exercise. Regrettably, the number of people engaging in physical exercise is in decline.

The stats on this make for sober reading. The latest data available on this comes from the Central Statistics Office Quarterly National Household Survey for Q2 2013. I present an abridged version of this below. 

The column of concern should be that labelled "Not a member of any sports or fitness clubs". Of the 15,860 persons sampled by the CSO in 2013, more than 40% ticked this box. The breakdown of this by "Age group" appears to be remarkable. Somebody aged 15-24 is almost as likely to not be a member of a sport/fitness club as a person age 65+. 

The regional data is also very interesting. The Border region and South-West are far more active than the other six regions. It's anyone's guess why this is the case. Worryingly, almost 50% of those sampled in Dublin, Mid-East, Mid-West and South-East were not a member of any sport of fitness club.