By David Butler
The Follow the Pundit! page on this website keeps tabs on pundits who systematically predict scores in the English Premier League.
Perhaps the most famous mystic is ex Arsenal and Aston Villa footballer Paul Merson. So how is the Sky Sports pundit getting on this season? After predicting 313 score lines, Merse has forecasted 44% of the match outcomes correctly. He has predicted the correct score line 7% of the time.
As per last season, Merse overestimates the performance of some teams and underestimates the performance of others. This is a common pattern. Below is a Premier League table that shows the aggregation of Merson's predictions over the course of the 2015/2016 Premier League season. Merse has overestimated Arsenal’s performance by 24 points and Chelsea’s by 21. West Brom fans will be most aggrieved. He has underestimated their performances by 25 points and his predictions (if all correct) would mean that the baggies are rock bottom, collecting just 15 points!
The Follow the Pundit! page on this website keeps tabs on pundits who systematically predict scores in the English Premier League.
Perhaps the most famous mystic is ex Arsenal and Aston Villa footballer Paul Merson. So how is the Sky Sports pundit getting on this season? After predicting 313 score lines, Merse has forecasted 44% of the match outcomes correctly. He has predicted the correct score line 7% of the time.
As per last season, Merse overestimates the performance of some teams and underestimates the performance of others. This is a common pattern. Below is a Premier League table that shows the aggregation of Merson's predictions over the course of the 2015/2016 Premier League season. Merse has overestimated Arsenal’s performance by 24 points and Chelsea’s by 21. West Brom fans will be most aggrieved. He has underestimated their performances by 25 points and his predictions (if all correct) would mean that the baggies are rock bottom, collecting just 15 points!
Paul Merson - Predicted Table September 2015 Interestingly, on the 4th of September 2015 Sky Sports published how Merse thought the final table would look. It’s looking impossible that his predictions will be able to reflect this estimate with only a few rounds of matches remaining this season. That said, his individual predictions have reflected that he believed Norwich, Sunderland and West Brom would all struggle. Leicester City are the elephant in the room of course, but who could have predicted their rise?
It may seem that Merse is not doing great with his predictions but he is performing just as well as other pundits who make forecasts. To see similar statistics for Mark Lawrenson and Ian Holloway, check out the Follow the Pundit! page. This recommendation should come with a health warning for Aston Villa fans however (Lawro hasn't predicted Villa would score since Christmas!)
On Wednesday the 6th of April both Robbie Butler and myself are participating in a WIT Sports Seminar from 2pm. At this I will be presenting more data on estimates made by pundits. The title of the paper (with John Eakins & Robbie Butler) is called Mystics and the Market – An Empirical Analysis of Premier League Score Predictions.
It may seem that Merse is not doing great with his predictions but he is performing just as well as other pundits who make forecasts. To see similar statistics for Mark Lawrenson and Ian Holloway, check out the Follow the Pundit! page. This recommendation should come with a health warning for Aston Villa fans however (Lawro hasn't predicted Villa would score since Christmas!)
On Wednesday the 6th of April both Robbie Butler and myself are participating in a WIT Sports Seminar from 2pm. At this I will be presenting more data on estimates made by pundits. The title of the paper (with John Eakins & Robbie Butler) is called Mystics and the Market – An Empirical Analysis of Premier League Score Predictions.
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