By Daragh O'Leary

One of the great things about being a researcher is that if I see something in society that sparks my interest, I can analyse it out of curiosity, and it still counts as work. I find myself regularly doing this with sport. My most recent endeavour has been looking at the role of kick-off times in Premier League fixtures.
 
Last year I was one of many heartbroken Arsenal fans who had to endure losing out on Champions League qualification to Tottenham Hotspur. With this said, Arsenal challenging for top four was a welcome change from their two previous campaigns where they finished 8th each year. Being involved in the top four race at all hinted that long-needed improvement was finally taking place. Despite this improvement, the Gunners still managed to lose some matches in spectacular fashion. Losses to Everton, Crystal Palace, Spurs, and Newcastle were particularly hard blows to take.
 
However, amid my heartbreak, I couldn’t help but spot a pattern in some of these disappointing results. They all took place away and at night. I immediately took to data to see was there anything significant in this pattern. As it turns out, there is. Even when controlling for factors like fixture difficulty, attendance, red cards, relative age of teams, distance between teams and the time of the season, I keep finding a distinct pattern of home advantage being intensified by later kick-off times. I refer to this as the night owl effect.
 
Home teams appear more likely to win and win by greater margins when playing in late kick-offs (17:30 & 20:00) compared to early kick-offs (12:30). Why is this the case? The primary conceptual reasoning for the existence of home advantage is crowd effects. These are psychological effects provided by fans which help support and intimidate players and officials. I can think of two reasons why crowd effects may change during later kick-offs.
 
Firstly, later kick-off times may mean lower levels of support for the away team. There is generally lower demand for later kick-offs. Later kick-offs create greater opportunity costs for attending football matches. This is particularly the case for away fans who may have to travel long distances to attend football matches or even pay for accommodation if a return journey on matchday isn’t feasible. The map provided illustrates the distances some fans may have to travel to support their team. Less away fans means less support for away teams, which could mean poorer away team performances. Thus, home advantage could be greater in later kick-offs.
 
Secondly, later kick-off times might create more hostile environments for away teams to play in. Alcohol consumption is common among Premier League spectators and has been known to increase aggressive/violent behaviour. Given that drinking is typically considered a part of the night-time economy, it could be reasoned that later kick-off times may facilitate greater alcohol consumption among sport spectators and result in more hostile atmospheres for away teams to play in via crowd effects. Thus, intensifying home advantage.
 
The existence of this night owl effect within the Premier League raises questions about the fairness of the double round-robin format. Is home advantage really distributed fairly in the Premier League if the fixtures aren’t all on at the same time?

By John Considine

Yesterday the BBC carried a piece on the passing of a past President of the GAA (here).  Mick Loftus was more than just an administrator.  He also had the distinction of representing his county as a player.  Yet, he said he “gained more satisfaction from refereeing than anything else”.  We are unlikely to see his likes again.
 
The quote in the above paragraph, and the one in the title of this blog post, are from a lovely book by Jim O’Sullivan.  Published in 2002, Men in Black is Jim’s conversation with 18 GAA referees.  As I grew older, I learned to appreciate Jim’s reporting style.  He described the game but tended to let the reader draw their own conclusions about how the teams and players had performed.  The book is written in a similar style.  This is a book about those who held the whistle.  It is not a book about Jim O’Sullivan.  Like a good referee, he does not seek to insert himself into the narrative.
 
One of the recurring themes in the book is the effort of the referees to let the game “flow”.  One account opens with the hypothesis that letting the game flow could be measured by the number of free shots awarded.  One regularly hears the same idea nowadays.  Most commentators claim that the best hurling game of 2022 was the Munster hurling final and that the referee let the game “flow”.  However, the number of free shots awarded does not support the hypothesis.  The problem is not with the view of the game or the refereeing.  The problem is the measure of "flow" that is used.  The 2022 Munster hurling final was in the upper end of the distribution for the number of free shots awarded.
 
An increasingly rare contributor to this blog advocates a better measure.  John Eakins says that the flow of the game is best measured by the free shots NOT awarded.  I think he is correct.  The problem is with empirical verification.  There is no data on the number of free shots not awarded.  In last year’s Munster final, there was an implicit agreement between the players and the referee that there would be a high burden of proof on what constituted foul play.  The players adjusted and some of the exchanges were extremely robust.  Some off-the-ball stuff bordered on assault.  Gladiatorial stuff.  Great viewing.  But there were plenty of frees awarded and nearly all were well deserved.
 
My economist-self has written that the competitive balance of the game can help explain its appeal (here).  It helps.  But I know in my bones that the physicality is at least as important to the viewer.  The players knew it in their bones the day of the final.

By Robbie Butler

The Irish National Hunt racing season draws to a close this week with the traditional Punchestown Racing Festival. While the winners on the course are different every year - often Cheltenham winners struggle to follow-up in late April - what does not change is the winner of the "Leading Trainer" award.

For the 16th year in a row W.P. Mullins will be crowned Champion Irish National Hunt Trainer. What a remarkable feat for the Carlow man who now holds legendary status in Irish racing circles. As Mullins receives his award, Cullentra based trainer Gordon Elliott will finish as runner-up for the 11th year in a row.

Such is the dominance of these "big two" that many other trainers struggle to keep horses in training. The data of prizemoney winnings across the 100 most successful trainers over the past 10 years can help us understand why.

Over the past decade, Mullins and Elliott would appear to have become more dominant, rising from a combined 25% take of all prizemoney in 2013/14 to almost 38% today. The high point of this concentration occurred in 2018 when the two shared more than 40% of all prizemoney during the 2017/18 season. That's two trainers not far off sharing half of all prizemoney during a season.

The decline of 2019, 2020 and slow recovery in 2021 and 2022 can be largely explained by two factors; Elliott's training ban and the rise of trainer Henry De Bromhead. The Waterford man has finished 3rd to these two for the past five seasons, and has surpassed €2 million in prizemoney in three of the five.

A closer look at this seasons data confirms that the leading five national hunt trainers (Mullins, Elliott, De Bromhead, Gavin Cromwell and Joseph O'Brien) in the top 100 won more than half of all prizemoney (51.8%). The other 95 trainers, ranked from 6th to 100th, shared the remaining 48.20%.

By John Considine

Yesterday, for a few moments, there was a good discussion between the Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform and a NewsTalk radio presenter.  It came at the end of a 14-minute interview (interview here).  The presenter asked about the Minister's misgivings concerning the Football Association of Ireland's bid to co-host Euro2028.

The Minister set out his objection clearly.  It is the one that most economists would list.  Specifically, he questioned the claim that the event would bring extra tourist to the country rather than displace those tourists who already visit.  Anyone trying to find a hotel room in Dublin will know what the Minister is talking about.

It was a pity that the Minister continued by saying that he accepted the answer he got from the Department of Sport.  That answer started with a bit of waffle about marketing the tournament.  It then proceeded to talk about increasing accommodation.  Again, I presume that anyone looking for accommodation in a host city is unlikely to disagree with such an objective.  However, it seems strange that any accommodation issue is going to be sorted for a handful of football games in 2028 rather than the hundreds of other days in 2028 alone - let alone the thousands of days until then.

The presenter did his best to highlight that the claims by the Department of Sport missed the mark.  The Minister repeated his claim that he accepted the answer provided by the Department of Sport and then he started to drift into the "sport has other benefits" arguments.

Overall, it was a big plus that the Minister acknowledged the arguments presented in the economics research literature in addition to the ones presented in "research" by commissioned consultants.

By David Butler

In light of the Animal rights campaign group disrupting the Grand national last weekend I thought it timely to repost the graph below with updated data (1970 to 2023).

Over time, fewer horses are falling in the race and the number of horses being pulled up is trending upwards.

There is an upward trend in the number of 'unseated riders' over the period. This is when only a jockey hits the turf. What appears to be happening is that risks/costs imposed on the horse have been lowered over time. 

By David Butler

There is a debate in Ireland about who should be our national football (soccer) teams number one goalkeeper. Luckily, we have two young Premier League goalkeepers to call on. Gavin Bazunu plays regularly for relegation candidates Southampton while Caoimhin Kelleher is the reserve goalkeeper for Liverpool.  

The discussion is that Bazunu is receiving game time and gaining valuable experience but he is shipping a lot of goals.  Kelleher is not playing – we do not know how many goals he would have conceded. Importantly, Bazunu is not solely responsible for every goal conceded – the entire Southampton defence should shoulder the blame. Ireland’s last famous goalkeeper knew this all too well; Shay Given was known as an amazing ‘shot-stopper’ (although that is his job!), largely because he had plenty of practice with a weak Newcastle defence in front of him.

It is hard to disentangle individual from team performance, but more and more we are getting access to statistics that allow us to do this. 

The ‘post shot expected goals’ stat (PSxG) quantifies a goalkeeper’s ability at making saves and is expected goals based on how likely the goalkeeper is to save the shot. This is calculated by OPTA and other football stats providers. The xG includes penalty kicks, but does not include penalty shootouts. In a nutshell, this stat takes into account the quality of the shot, the distance from the goal, angle, type of shot (head, foot, etc), the position of the defenders and goalkeeper, and other variables. The stats companies then calculate the probability of a goal being scored after a shot has been taken.

By subtracting goals conceded from the PSxG, we can determine whether a goalkeeper is overperforming or underperforming compared to their expected performance. Positive numbers indicate better performance and maybe luck. The evidence would suggest that Bazunu is not doing well.

The table below is ranked from smallest to largest by the difference in goals to PSxG for the current Premier League season. I removed the goalkeepers who only played a handful of matches. Unfortunately, Bazunu is bottom of the list. He has conceded about 15 more goals than he 'should have'. The Liverpool number 1 goalkeeper – Alisson - is performing best. Caoimhin Kelleher may have to warm the bench for some time yet. We don't have an observation for Kelleher, so I guess the debate will rumble on. 

For more on the use of goalkeeper performance stats and how they correlate to pay see a new paper in the European Journal of Sports Management here.

By John Considine

The final stage of a professional road cycling race took place yesterday.  The race was the Giro di Sicilia or the Tour of Sicily.  The slogan for the race was “The Race Across Beauty”.  It was apt.  For the most part.  As the breakaway made their way up the final climb, a climb that would decide the winner of the race, the overhead shots captured images of illegally dumped rubbish.  The words of the Eurosport commentators suggested it was not an unexpected image.
 
Those seeking public funding for sports events frequently cite the tourism benefits of television coverage.  Images of roadside dumping are unlikely to encourage tourism.  The hope is that these images will not undo the other captivating images.  Earlier in the day the viewers were treated to fabulous images of Mount Etna.  There were inviting images of the cyclists climbing and descending with the Mediterranean in the background.
 
In most cases, the coverage of road cycling races is a form of promotional video.  For example, when the race passes some significant building or landscape, captions are placed on the screen and the race commentators turn into tourist guides.  The history of the scene is presented.  This week the viewer was left in no doubt about the impact of earthquakes and volcanos on the landscape of the island.  Occasionally, particularly in the Grand Tours, there will be a discussion of the local food and beverages.  Picture postcard stuff.   Wish you were here.
 
Could there have been better planning of yesterday’s stage?  Could the local authority not have ensured that a couple of waste collection vehicles travelled the route on the morning of the race?  Or could the organisers not have planned to route to avoid potential trouble?  Possibly.
 
The biggest difficulty is that the race, or at least the latter part of it, is broadcast live.  It would have been difficult to ensure that the broadcaster avoided unpleasant images.  If the locations were known then they could have been cleaned before the event.
 
Contrast these unpleasant live images with those presented in the Inspector Montalbano TV series.  Another potential use of public funds.  Here the images are carefully managed and edited.  The fictional policeman and his surroundings are a more inviting advert for Sicily than the Andrea Camilleri books on which they are based – although the books present more culinary details than is present in the TV series or the Eurosport coverage.  The first book is called The Shape of Water and the blurb on the cover starts with “When the body of a respected and prominent engineer Silvio Luparello is discovered in the Pasture, a rubbish-strewn site brimming with drug dealers and prostitutes, …”.  The investigation turns on a detail in a photograph of the dead man.  A detail that is spotted by his wife.  Something that is out of place.  Something that takes from the narrative that the dead man's enemies are trying to present.  A bit like a few black bin bags in The Race Across Beauty.

Yet, the books also evoke a feeling for the place that is more likely to encourage than discourage the reader to visit the island.  Maybe a few black bin bags are unlikely to do too much damage.

By John Considine

Tonight is Night 11 of the 2023 Cazoo Premier League Darts.  Every Thursday night since February 2nd, eight players have engaged in a single elimination tournament as part of a larger league.  This is a fascinating competition design.

The winner of each night receives five league points and £10,000 for winning three matches on the night, i.e. quarter-final, semi-final and final.  The runner-up receives 3 league points for winning two matches leading to the final.  Those who win their quarter-final will earn two league points.

The first seven nights pitted each contestant against every other contestant once at the quarter-final stage.  Night 8 then used the results of the first seven nights to seed the contest on that night.  The seeding is one favoured by many tournament organisers.  It can be summarised as 1v8; 4v5; 2v7; 3v6 (or 18452736).  There was only one upset in the seven matches with the 6th seed beating the 3rd seed.  The semi-finals were 1v4 and 2v6.  The final was 1v2.  The top seed (1) emerged as the winner in Night 8.
 
Night 11 is one of the second set of 7 nights where each contestant will play every other contestant once.  Night 16 will repeat Night 8.  After that the top 4 will proceed to the knockout semi-final stage.  The ultimate winner will pocket £250,000 from the overall £1,000,000 prize fund.

It would be a mistake to think that things always work out as neatly as Night 8 in 2023.  While we only have one other year of this format, there are more upsets 2022.  If this format is maintained for a few more years then it might yield some interesting insights.

By John Considine

The numbers above are those for the rows in the Wikipedia table for Managerial Changes in the Premier League seasons 1992-3, 2002-3, 2012-3 and 2022-3.  Four season separated by 10 years.  Thirty years from first to last.  The 2022-3 table of data has a different format to the earlier decades.  It is listed by event rather than club.  There are 17 rows already.  Will this be the high point for managerial changes in a season?

By Robbie Butler

This week UCC held its annual prize-giving ceremony in the College of Business and Law. The event marked the inaugural awarding of the James Quirk Memorial Prize in Sports Economics.

James (Jim) Patrick Quirk (November 27, 1926 – June 4, 2020) was a Caltech Professor of Economics. He was also Professor of Economics at the University of Kansas and is widely regarded in the field of sports economics. Prof Quirk was one of the first ever “sports economists” and made his seminal contributions to the subject, as early as the 1970s, which continued for the next 40 years.

Prof Quirk is of Irish decent and the Quirk estate are pleased to support an annual prize in University College Cork’s “Economics of Sport” module to remember the lifetime of contributions made to this field. This award is presented to the student with the best academic performance annually in EC3219.

The inaugural winner was BA (Economics) graduate Shane Kelleher pictured below with the Dean of Cork University Business School Professor Thia Hennessy.

Shane left UCC in 2022 and has continued to develop his understanding of sports economics. In September 2023, he will return to UCC to begin a two year Masters in Education to teach business and economics at secondary school level.

​Well done Shane!