By Ed Valentine

Recap of Week 10
Returns €82.50
Net Returns €32.50
 
The ‘both teams to receive a card’ double paid off and although it was a modest return it now brings the pot more or less the value of a single week’s outlay. Liverpool to win against struggling Leeds is tempting however we could also say ‘struggling Liverpool’ given recent form. The focus instead will be at the top of La Liga and Serie A.
 
Week 11 selections:
Inter Milan vs Sampdoria
Inter 2-0 anytime lead €25 @2.05
Potential net €26.25
 
Real Madrid vs Girona
Real to win €25 @1.30
Potential net €7.50
  
The pot is €52.20 in deficit after 10 game weeks.
Total outlay €500
Total returns €447.50

By Robbie Butler

Back in March 2015 I wrote "The Tiny Gulf State" and examined Qatar's 2022 World Cup hosting. A very quick seven and a half years later, the competition is almost upon us.

While Qatar is a remarkable venue for many reasons, one of the most remarkable is its size. This will be the most condensed World Cup ever. 

The 2015 blog post contained a map of venues. The 2022 map is even more concentrated then back then as Ash Shamai is no longer a host city. The five locations were games will be played are presented below to the left. Qatar's area compared to Ireland's is compared to the right (taken from 2015).

The concentration of this global event is quite extraordinary. It could not be more different to the last two World Cups in Russia and Brazil and the pan-European Euro 2020.

By Robbie Butler

“A few weeks ago I reviewed "An Economist Goes to the Game: How to Throw Away $580 Million and Other Surprising Insights from the Economics of Sports” by Stanford economist Prof. Paul Oyer. 

The review has recently been published in Business Economics - The Journal of the National Association for Business Economics by Yale University Press.

The full review is  now available online here. 

Recap of Week 9
Total returns €39
Net - €11
 
As losses go last week was not so bad. Valencia were held to a draw in a scrappy game against Elche while Bayern won which helped to limit the damage. The pot is still in a double digit deficit which is recoverable with 28 or so rounds to play.

​This weekend it’s about chipping away at the deficit. Serie A and Scotland.
 
Week 10 selections:
 
Juventus vs Empoli
Both Teams to receive a card 1.30
 
Hearts vs Celtic
Both teams to receive a card @1.25
 
Placed as a double €50@1.63
Potential Net returns €32.50
 
The pot is €85 in deficit after 9 game weeks.
Total outlay €450
Total returns €365

By John Considine

In The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Football Is Wrong, Chris Anderson and David Sally explain some of the problems with defensive statistics.  There is a section called 'The Maldini Principle: Dogs That Don't Bark'.  In that section they discuss how Paolo Maldini "rarely made a tackle".  They also discuss how Jaap Stam's reduction in defensive production (as measured by statistics) reflected his improvement as a defender.  Other thought he was becoming less effective!  Stam was transferred and Anderson & Sally say "Ferguson went wrong".  Ferguson admitted as much later (although the issue is confounded by Stam's book).

If you are showing up towards the top of the defensive statistics then you are doing something wrong.  Coaches love to claim that tackles and other measures show work rate and commitment.  They do but there is a reason you are having to defend.  You don't have the ball.  It is much easier to defend with the ball.  Attack is the best form of defence.  I was reminded of this today by the statistics ribbon on Sky Sports News.  Players from the teams lower down the Premier League show up on the lists such as "Most Tackles".  See the picture below.

There are no players listed in the table above from the top five clubs.  There is a problem if you are showing up on these statistics.  Last night the number of saves made by the Nottingham Forest goalkeeper helped move his side off the bottom of the table.  However, if he continues to have to make as many saves as last night then there is a good chance Nottingham Forest will be relegated.

Compare the above Sky Sports Statistics with their attacking statistics below.  Now the players are those from teams towards the top of the table (James Maddison accounts for the two entries in the lowest row of the table).

By David Butler

​Over the last few years, I have read some interesting sports economics papers that consider externalities associated with sport. These often relate to the impact of sporting events on crime, domestic violence or pollution. Typically, they consider negative externalities, which economists usually agree outnumber positive ones. Another interesting contribution appeared online in The Journal of Human Resources last week. Hollingsworth et al. (working paper version here and published paywalled version here) consider how lead exposure impacts learning in elementary school by taking advantage of the February 2007 move in NASCAR racing to switch from leaded to unleaded fuel.

The authors show that “exposure to lead emissions has economically significant effects for elementary students living near emission sources” and “that exposure to airborne lead correlates with reduced standardized test performance across the student achievement distribution”. In short, children going to school near race tracks after the switch started to do better.

A couple of things struck me. First, why it took so long to switch fuel type given the known adverse affects of lead (there may well be a valid reason).  Second, NASCAR races appear to be once off or spot events – can this effect be solely down to these few occasions? I wonder were there wider environmental changes going on in these locations related to fuel use. If the effect is solely down to these few events, of course, that is worrying for individuals living closer to motorways or maybe airports that are more frequently used. Very interesting contribution from the authors and another paper to add to the wider sports externalities literature. 

By Ed Valentine
 
Recap of Week 8
 
Vamos! Last week’s Madrid double win has given the pot a big lift. Whist it’s still in the red the deficit has been reduced. The average weekly loss is €9.25, about the price of a Guinness in a swanky Dublin bar.

Total returns €118
Net€68

This week there is some good value to choose from. Selections are below:
 
Week 9 selections:
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg
€30 on Bayern to win @1.3 Returns
Total potential returns €39
 
Valencia vs Elche
€20 on Valencia to win @1.45
Total potential returns €29
  
The pot is €74 in deficit after 8 game weeks.
Total outlay €400
Total returns €326

By Robbie Butler

The English Premier League's Fantasy Football game has been used on this blog previously to explain economic issues such as opportunity cost and trade-offs. With inflation now raging in the the UK, and around the globe, the performance of Manchester City's newly signed Erling Haaland can give us a timely example of the problem.

With just two months of the new season played, Haaland's performance on the pitch has been nothing short of remarkable. The Norwegian striker has scored 15 goals in just 9 games, and is 7 clear of 2nd placed Harry Kane. Haaland delivers a goal or assist every 42 minutes - that is impressive output. 

This is great news for all Fantasy Football players that have Haaland in their team. Goals earn points and Haaland is regularly scoring into double figure. In fact, he has amassed 102 points already in the game, an average of more than 11 per game week. These points can then be doubled if Haaland is selected as "game week captain".

The crowd has spoken. As of now, 84.3% of teams in the game have selected Haaland. That is 8.97 million of the 10.64 million players. Not only that, almost everyone is now captaining Haaland.. So effectively, with the exception of about 15% of players, everyone else is playing with 10 players plus Haaland.

When Haaland scores and I check my points that total looks impressive. A quick check of others brings me back down to earth. Everyone has Haaland. Everyone has him as captain. In gameweek his captaincy rate rose to 98.81%. The Norwegian is simply inflating everyone's score. 

In today's inflationary spiral, fear of inflationary psychology are influencing central bankers, particularly the ECB. The days of quantitative easing are a distant memory and the solution of inflation is the raising of the price of money (interest rates) rather than the printing press. If everyone gets something, all boats should rise the same, and the difference remains.

Haaland is demonstrating this on a weekly basis.

By Robbie Butler

While Mo Salah had little impact on the football pitch yesterday, it appears he might be doing much more off the pitch. Recent work by Ala’ Alrababa’h, William Marble, Salma Mousa and Alexandra Siegel in the American Political Science Review attempts to measure that exposure to celebrities from stigmatized groups can reduce prejudice across wider society. 

Using the case of the famous Liverpool forward - Mohamed Salah - the authors examine reported crime rates in the UK and 15 million tweets from football fans living in the UK. The authors find a particularly important effect in the Liverpool area, with hate crimes dropping "by 16% compared with a synthetic control" and supporters of Liverpool halving "their rates of posting anti-Muslim tweets relative to fans of other top-flight clubs".

By Ed Valentine
 
Recap of Week 7
 
The first half of last week’s double got the round of to a good start. Within a few minutes of kick off on Saturday however Liverpool found themselves 2-0 down. They recovered well to lead 3-2 with 10 minutes remaining and the winnings looked safe. The match ended 3-3 and killed off any net profit. That’s the 4th consecutive losing bet. Things need to turn around soon. Hopefully La Liga will offer some positive returns with a Madrid double!
 
Week 8 selections:
 
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Atletico to win @1.55
 
Getafe vs Real Madrid
Real to win @1.52
 
This will be placed as a double
€50 @ 2.36
 
Potential net returns €67.80
 
The pot is €142 in deficit after 7 game weeks.
Total outlay €350
Total returns €208