The Economics of Sport
  • Sports Economics
  • About
  • Workshop
  • Selected Publications
  • Book Reviews
  • A Primer on Gaelic Games
  • Upcoming Events
  • Media
  • Education
  • Resources & Links
  • Data

Beat The Bookies 2.0 - Week 11

28/10/2022

 
By Ed Valentine

Recap of Week 10
Returns €82.50
Net Returns €32.50
 
The ‘both teams to receive a card’ double paid off and although it was a modest return it now brings the pot more or less the value of a single week’s outlay. Liverpool to win against struggling Leeds is tempting however we could also say ‘struggling Liverpool’ given recent form. The focus instead will be at the top of La Liga and Serie A.
 
Week 11 selections:
Inter Milan vs Sampdoria
Inter 2-0 anytime lead €25 @2.05
Potential net €26.25
 
Real Madrid vs Girona
Real to win €25 @1.30
Potential net €7.50
  
The pot is €52.20 in deficit after 10 game weeks.
Total outlay €500
Total returns €447.50

Qatar Approaches

27/10/2022

 
By Robbie Butler

Back in March 2015 I wrote "The Tiny Gulf State" and examined Qatar's 2022 World Cup hosting. A very quick seven and a half years later, the competition is almost upon us.

While Qatar is a remarkable venue for many reasons, one of the most remarkable is its size. This will be the most condensed World Cup ever. 

The 2015 blog post contained a map of venues. The 2022 map is even more concentrated then back then as Ash Shamai is no longer a host city. The five locations were games will be played are presented below to the left. Qatar's area compared to Ireland's is compared to the right (taken from 2015).
Picture
Picture
The concentration of this global event is quite extraordinary. It could not be more different to the last two World Cups in Russia and Brazil and the pan-European Euro 2020.

Book Review: “An Economist Goes to the Game".

24/10/2022

 
Picture
By Robbie Butler

“A few weeks ago I reviewed "An Economist Goes to the Game: How to Throw Away $580 Million and Other Surprising Insights from the Economics of Sports” by Stanford economist Prof. Paul Oyer. 

The review has recently been published in Business Economics - The Journal of the National Association for Business Economics by Yale University Press.

The full review is  now available online here. 

Beat The Bookies 2.0 - Week 10

21/10/2022

 
Recap of Week 9
Total returns €39
Net - €11
 
As losses go last week was not so bad. Valencia were held to a draw in a scrappy game against Elche while Bayern won which helped to limit the damage. The pot is still in a double digit deficit which is recoverable with 28 or so rounds to play.

​This weekend it’s about chipping away at the deficit. Serie A and Scotland.
 
Week 10 selections:
 
Juventus vs Empoli
Both Teams to receive a card 1.30
 
Hearts vs Celtic
Both teams to receive a card @1.25
 
Placed as a double €50@1.63
Potential Net returns €32.50
 
The pot is €85 in deficit after 9 game weeks.
Total outlay €450
Total returns €365

Attack is the best form of defence

19/10/2022

 
By John Considine
In The Numbers Game: Why Everything You Know About Football Is Wrong, Chris Anderson and David Sally explain some of the problems with defensive statistics.  There is a section called 'The Maldini Principle: Dogs That Don't Bark'.  In that section they discuss how Paolo Maldini "rarely made a tackle".  They also discuss how Jaap Stam's reduction in defensive production (as measured by statistics) reflected his improvement as a defender.  Other thought he was becoming less effective!  Stam was transferred and Anderson & Sally say "Ferguson went wrong".  Ferguson admitted as much later (although the issue is confounded by Stam's book).

If you are showing up towards the top of the defensive statistics then you are doing something wrong.  Coaches love to claim that tackles and other measures show work rate and commitment.  They do but there is a reason you are having to defend.  You don't have the ball.  It is much easier to defend with the ball.  Attack is the best form of defence.  I was reminded of this today by the statistics ribbon on Sky Sports News.  Players from the teams lower down the Premier League show up on the lists such as "Most Tackles".  See the picture below.
Picture
There are no players listed in the table above from the top five clubs.  There is a problem if you are showing up on these statistics.  Last night the number of saves made by the Nottingham Forest goalkeeper helped move his side off the bottom of the table.  However, if he continues to have to make as many saves as last night then there is a good chance Nottingham Forest will be relegated.

Compare the above Sky Sports Statistics with their attacking statistics below.  Now the players are those from teams towards the top of the table (James Maddison accounts for the two entries in the lowest row of the table).
Picture

Lead Exposure & Academic Achievement

15/10/2022

 
By David Butler

​Over the last few years, I have read some interesting sports economics papers that consider externalities associated with sport. These often relate to the impact of sporting events on crime, domestic violence or pollution. Typically, they consider negative externalities, which economists usually agree outnumber positive ones. Another interesting contribution appeared online in The Journal of Human Resources last week. Hollingsworth et al. (working paper version here and published paywalled version here) consider how lead exposure impacts learning in elementary school by taking advantage of the February 2007 move in NASCAR racing to switch from leaded to unleaded fuel.

The authors show that “exposure to lead emissions has economically significant effects for elementary students living near emission sources” and “that exposure to airborne lead correlates with reduced standardized test performance across the student achievement distribution”. In short, children going to school near race tracks after the switch started to do better.

A couple of things struck me. First, why it took so long to switch fuel type given the known adverse affects of lead (there may well be a valid reason).  Second, NASCAR races appear to be once off or spot events – can this effect be solely down to these few occasions? I wonder were there wider environmental changes going on in these locations related to fuel use. If the effect is solely down to these few events, of course, that is worrying for individuals living closer to motorways or maybe airports that are more frequently used. Very interesting contribution from the authors and another paper to add to the wider sports externalities literature. 

Beat The Bookies 2.0 - Week 9

14/10/2022

 
By Ed Valentine
 
Recap of Week 8
 
Vamos! Last week’s Madrid double win has given the pot a big lift. Whist it’s still in the red the deficit has been reduced. The average weekly loss is €9.25, about the price of a Guinness in a swanky Dublin bar.

Total returns €118
Net€68

This week there is some good value to choose from. Selections are below:
 
Week 9 selections:
Bayern Munich vs Freiburg
€30 on Bayern to win @1.3 Returns
Total potential returns €39
 
Valencia vs Elche
€20 on Valencia to win @1.45
Total potential returns €29
  
The pot is €74 in deficit after 8 game weeks.
Total outlay €400
Total returns €326

Inflation And Erling Haaland

12/10/2022

 
By Robbie Butler

The English Premier League's Fantasy Football game has been used on this blog previously to explain economic issues such as opportunity cost and trade-offs. With inflation now raging in the the UK, and around the globe, the performance of Manchester City's newly signed Erling Haaland can give us a timely example of the problem.

With just two months of the new season played, Haaland's performance on the pitch has been nothing short of remarkable. The Norwegian striker has scored 15 goals in just 9 games, and is 7 clear of 2nd placed Harry Kane. Haaland delivers a goal or assist every 42 minutes - that is impressive output. 

This is great news for all Fantasy Football players that have Haaland in their team. Goals earn points and Haaland is regularly scoring into double figure. In fact, he has amassed 102 points already in the game, an average of more than 11 per game week. These points can then be doubled if Haaland is selected as "game week captain".

The crowd has spoken. As of now, 84.3% of teams in the game have selected Haaland. That is 8.97 million of the 10.64 million players. Not only that, almost everyone is now captaining Haaland.. So effectively, with the exception of about 15% of players, everyone else is playing with 10 players plus Haaland.

When Haaland scores and I check my points that total looks impressive. A quick check of others brings me back down to earth. Everyone has Haaland. Everyone has him as captain. In gameweek his captaincy rate rose to 98.81%. The Norwegian is simply inflating everyone's score. 

In today's inflationary spiral, fear of inflationary psychology are influencing central bankers, particularly the ECB. The days of quantitative easing are a distant memory and the solution of inflation is the raising of the price of money (interest rates) rather than the printing press. If everyone gets something, all boats should rise the same, and the difference remains.

Haaland is demonstrating this on a weekly basis.

Can Exposure to Celebrities Reduce Prejudice? The Effect of Mohamed Salah on Islamophobic Behaviors and Attitudes

10/10/2022

 
By Robbie Butler

While Mo Salah had little impact on the football pitch yesterday, it appears he might be doing much more off the pitch. Recent work by Ala’ Alrababa’h, William Marble, Salma Mousa and Alexandra Siegel in the American Political Science Review attempts to measure that exposure to celebrities from stigmatized groups can reduce prejudice across wider society. 

Using the case of the famous Liverpool forward - Mohamed Salah - the authors examine reported crime rates in the UK and 15 million tweets from football fans living in the UK. The authors find a particularly important effect in the Liverpool area, with hate crimes dropping "by 16% compared with a synthetic control" and supporters of Liverpool halving "their rates of posting anti-Muslim tweets relative to fans of other top-flight clubs".
The figures to the right are Synthetic Control Results for Hate Crimes Analysis

According to the authors "The top panel shows the observed (solid line) and imputed (dashed line) monthly hate crime rates in Merseyside. The bottom panel shows the difference between the observed and imputed outcomes. In the posttreatment period, this is the estimate of the treatment effect. The black line shows the estimates obtained for Merseyside, and the gray lines show the estimates obtained when we treat each of the control units as if it were treated. The fact that the Merseyside estimates are consistently lower than the control group estimates provides evidence that our treatment effect estimates are unlikely to be due to chance."

The full paper is available online and can be found here.
Picture

Beat The Bookies 2.0 - Week 8

7/10/2022

 
By Ed Valentine
 
Recap of Week 7
 
The first half of last week’s double got the round of to a good start. Within a few minutes of kick off on Saturday however Liverpool found themselves 2-0 down. They recovered well to lead 3-2 with 10 minutes remaining and the winnings looked safe. The match ended 3-3 and killed off any net profit. That’s the 4th consecutive losing bet. Things need to turn around soon. Hopefully La Liga will offer some positive returns with a Madrid double!
 
Week 8 selections:
 
Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna
Atletico to win @1.55
 
Getafe vs Real Madrid
Real to win @1.52
 
This will be placed as a double
€50 @ 2.36
 
Potential net returns €67.80
 
The pot is €142 in deficit after 7 game weeks.
Total outlay €350
Total returns €208
<<Previous

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013

    About

    This website was founded in July 2013.

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    American Football
    Athletics
    Baseball
    Basketball
    Behavioural Economics
    Boxing
    Broadcasting
    Competitive Balance
    Cricket
    Cycling
    Darts
    David Butler
    Declan Jordan
    Drugs
    Ed Valentine
    Epl
    Esports
    Expenditure
    F1
    Fifa World Cup
    Finances
    Funding
    Gaa
    Gaelic Games
    Gambling
    Game Theory
    Gary Burns
    Geography
    Golf
    Greyhound Racing
    Guest Posts
    Horse Racing
    Impact Studies
    John Considine
    John Eakins
    League Of Ireland
    Location
    Media
    Mls
    Mma
    Olympics
    Participation
    Paul O'Sullivan
    Premier League
    Regulation
    Research
    Robbie Butler
    Rugby
    Simpsonomics
    Snooker
    Soccer
    Spatial Analysis
    Sporting Bodies
    Stephen Brosnan
    Swimming
    Taxation
    Teaching
    Technology
    Tennis
    Transfers
    Uefa
    Ufc
    World Cup
    Wwe

Related

The website is not formally affiliated to any institution and all of the entries represent the personal views and opinions of an individual contributor. The website operates on a not-for-profit basis. For this reason we decline all advertisement opportunities. 

Contact

To contact us email sportseconomics2013@gmail.com or find us on Twitter @SportEcon.