Examining the teams who topped their respective groups, no team did worse than collecting 67% of points from the maximum e.g. 10/15 for a team playing 5 home games or 8/12 for a team playing 4. Out of the 27 teams who finished first during the three qualifying campaigns, only 9 went the entire process with a 100% home win rate. These were Spain, England, Netherlands (WC 2010), Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Spain (Euro 2012), Holland, and Russia (WC 2014).

A number of teams who finished second and third during these three campaigns had extremely impressive home records, yet still finished behind teams who didn’t perform as well as home. For instance, qualifying for WC 2010 (Portugal, Greece, Slovenia, and France), Euro 2012 (Republic of Ireland, Bosnia, Croatia, and Montenegro) and WC 2014 (Greece, and France) either matched or bettered first place teams home record, yet still finished behind them. This phenomenon was the same for certain teams finishing second and third. Moreover, there are cases of certain teams finishing third even though they matched or bettered the first placed teams points accumulation (see Slovakia and Czech Republic, 2010; Russia and Armenia, 2012; England and Switzerland, 2012).

Collecting as many points as possible from home can aid in qualification, however, there are quite a number of exceptions to the rule. When it comes to the argument of a strong home record to ensure qualification, or at least reaching a play-off, there is no greater exception to the rule then the Republic of Ireland. Although going unbeaten for the entire campaign under Giovanni Trapattoni, only 39% of Ireland’s total points came from home games. Out of all teams who finished in the top three during the 2010 World Cup qualification campaign, Ireland’s home record was the poorest in regard to collecting the maximum number of home points available.

Similarly for the European Championship campaign it was Ireland’s away record which helped them secure second. Only 48% of their total points came from matches at the Aviva Stadium. Honourable mentions should be made to the likes of Russia, England (both group winners) and Estonia and Czech Republic (runners up) who performed much better on the road then at home, even better then Ireland. Even for the last World Cup qualifying campaign there are numerous examples of teams preforming much better away from home. So although home form can matter, a strong away record can be just as good. Can Ireland do it again? A nation holds its breath.

By Robbie Butler

Outliers: The Story of Success is a 2008 book written by Malcom Gladwell. Among other things, the book repeatedly mentions the “10,000 Hour Rule”. This rule suggests that there is no such thing as innate talent but instead claims that the key to success in any field is, to a large extent, a matter of practicing a specific task for a total of 10,000 hours.

Recently, I have started playing six-a-side football with a group of lads I know. Five of the group happen to be primary school teachers. We started chatting about football in school and I discovered that in all four schools (two of them work together) football is ‘banned’ at break time!

I started to reflect on my experiences in St Paul's Boys National School in Lisduggan, Waterford. In the early 1990s school was as much about football to me, as it was education. From 1st class onward we played football when and where possible. Large footballs were forbidden so a tennis ball was used. It was almost impossible to control but made it much easier when one moved to the larger football.  

School started at 9.15am but our matches regularly kicked-off before 8.45am. “Small break” involved a rapid 15 minute game from 10.55am to 11.10am. 

“Big Break” was the main event. Lunch was quickly devoured so that games started around 12.35pm and finished at 1.15pm. All in all, we played roughly 90 minutes of schoolyard football per day with a tennis ball. That’s five full matches per week, not to mention the hours spent playing on the road after school, or with clubs and friends at weekends.

By the end of primary school, I estimate we had played more than 1,600 hours of football in school. That’s more than 16% of the way to Gladwell's magic 10,000 Hour Rule.  

This 16+% cannot be accumulated today. Many of the great Irish players of the past surely benefited from this “extra” practice time. No doubt, Niall Quinn, Ronnie Whelan and Robbie Keane were all beneficiaries of playground football. Today’s generation do not get this opportunity. The Cork children that attend the schools of my team mates don’t have the opportunity a young Roy Keane once had in the very same schools. Insurance, health and safety, etc. are all cited for this decision.

In the early 1990s getting hurt was part of school life. Cuts, bruises, scars. They were all worth it so that you had the lunchtime bragging rights. It might be some time before we see the next Roy Keane emerge; kids simply don’t get the opportunity they used to.

By Robbie Butler

I was saddened recently when I heard the news that former Irish Champion jockey Charlie Swan has decided to retire from training at the end of the month. Swan (48) took out his training licence in 1998 and enjoyed notable success with Offshore Account and One Cool Cookie. I will always fondly remember him as the partner of the mighty Istabraq, the greatest hurdler I ever saw.

This week Charlie was joined by Joanna Morgan. The first female jockey to ride professionally at Royal Ascot, Morgan called it a day this week having taken out her training licence in 1997.

Both Swan and Morgan cite rising costs as the reason for opting to leave the sport they love. Writing in the Irish Independent on Monday, Richard Forristal was quite critical of the horse racing industry. His piece "HRI Spin Conceals Real Truth Of Stats" suggests all is not well within racing circles, despite central authority’s insistence that the sport of kings is on the rise again.

Anyone that follows racing will know that the 2008-2009 financial crash has hit the industry hard. The sport in many ways had come to symbolise Celtic Tiger Ireland. Syndicates, the Galway Races, trips to Cheltenham and beyond. Getting horses entered in races, particularly lower graded ones was an achievement during the mid-2000. The data below illustrates just why Charlie and Joanna have left the game.

The trend is worrying and there is nothing to suggest it will be arrested in the coming years. Furthermore it appears that both flat and national hunt racing are becoming less competitive at the upper end. Just 3 horses entered the Grade 1 Novice Chase last weekend at Leopardstown. A maximum of five will probably line out for the Irish Champion Hurdle this weekend.

This is just one tiny snapshot of the past five years. The Horse Racing Ireland Fact Book provides a wealth of statistics and data for the interested reader and is available free from their website.