Following on from our successful workshop last week on sports betting, it is rather appropriate that we re-start our blog with the traditional Galway Races exercise that puts the Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) to the test.
Last year we branched out and followed two leading trainers. A profit of more than 31% was reported for Willie Mullins, but Dermot Weld followers would have incurred a loss. As this is our 6th attempt, and with last years draw, the scorelines stands at 1.5 - 3.5, in favour of the bookies. Not deterred, we go again this evening, and for the next six days.
The rules are as follows. A hypothetical stake of €2 (to win) will be wagered on on all Weld and Mullins trained runners shorter than 4/1, and €1 each way on all those 4/1 or greater. Guaranteed prices are assumed. The trainers will be evaluated separately.
Updates during the week will follow.
Following both trainers resulted in a profit of €56.32 for a €2 stake per horse. That's a 36.1% return. Things were even better for Mullins alone, with a reported profit of €71.52 for a €2 stake. This is a massive 63.9% return!