by Declan Jordan

Today sees the return of the Airtricity League of Ireland for a new season. It seems there is hardly a season goes by in this league where there hasn't been a change of format, and so it is with this season. The Premier Division is once again reduced to 10 teams for the first time since 2011. This will be the sixth season out of sixteen since the move to summer football that there have been 10 teams in the Premier Division.

For fans in Munster there is also the added excitement of three clubs from the province in the League for the first time since 1994, when Limerick, Cork, and Cobh were in the top division.

This season Cork City (the champions), Limerick FC, and Waterford FC will play each other four times in the league. Clubs from these cities were mainstays in the top tier of the league right up to the early 1990s and it is a common complaint about the league that Dublin clubs have dominated in the last two decades or so. There are well-founded worries about the viability of clubs in the provincial cities because of that Dublin dominance.

However, a look at the experience of the league since the move to summer football in 2003 suggests that Dublin dominance may be waning. The table below shows the spread of top tier clubs by province, including a column for Dublin. The location of the champions is indicated by a box for each season, with a tick when the champion was based in the capital. Note that I have included Bray Wanderers as a Dublin team, which might not make too many Seagull supporters happy, but most functional region factors would suggest they are within the Greater Dublin Area (not least its connection to the Dublin by light rail). 

The data suggests a decline in the dominance of Dublin clubs, indicated by the lack of a champion since 2013 and a reduction in clubs from Dublin in the top tier. It seems there is a concentration within Dublin among a smaller group of clubs - Shamrock Rovers, Bohemian FC, St Patricks Athletic, and Bray Wanderers. In the early to mid part of the last decade there were clubs that have since failed to keep up (Shelbourne and UCD) or gone out of business (Dublin City, Sporting Fingal). Cabinteely joined the league in 2015 but have not come near to promotion in that time. Is it a coincidence that Dublin football clubs have slipped away just as the Dublin gaelic football team has dominated their sport?

Perhaps too much shouldn't be read into the last couple of seasons for Dublin clubs, as the league has been dominated by Dundalk and Cork City. The former were champions for 3 seasons and runners-up last year. The latter were runners-up for 3 seasons before their breakthrough last season. These clubs have been able to reinvest money earned from European competition and player transfers to the UK to maintain their hold on the best playing talent in Ireland and keep ahead of any chasing pack.

The distribution of clubs outside of Dublin, and greater success for those clubs, can only be good for the sustainability of the league. It remains to be seen if Dublin clubs can be revitalised to challenge again. The sports economist in me wants to see strong Dublin clubs, because competitive balance and regional balance are good for the league. The Limerick FC fan in me however wants to see Munster dominance for a while.
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By David Butler

No doubt Valon Berisha will become an iconic name in Kosovo after the Red Bull Salzburg midfielder scored in the Balkan territory's first World Cup qualifying match since becoming a FIFA member. At first I was thrilled to see the Kosovans do well but then I started to question whether their arrival will spell qualification trouble from teams like the Republic of Ireland in the years to come. While the Kosovans are currently minnows, naturally they will have motivations to progress. They haven’t had a bad start; Finland were drawn from Pot 5, not Pot 6, and on top of that, it was an away point they achieved in Turku. If my memory serves me right not long after Montengro came on the seen they achieved a draw with Ireland. 

As all European soccer fans know, qualifying for the World Cup in Russia is challenging. Apart from Russia, who qualify automatically as hosts, only thirteen slots in the final tournament are available for European teams. What’s more, the lowest place runner up doesn’t even get into a play-off. As Robbie Butler showed here, us Irish draw an awful lot of matches.

An issue for the European bloc, and perhaps for those that consider tournament design, is the expansion of the qualification stage. While this has happened on a piecemeal basis, the break-up of the USSR and Yugoslavia were particularly relevant. The graph below shows the number of European teams competing in the World Cup qualification round from 1982 to 2016 and the number of slots available (discounting automatic qualification). Approximately 40% of teams qualified from Europe from 1982 to 1990. This has fallen since then. Now under a quarter of the entrants reach the finals. The number of places on offer at the finals has remained relatively constant. 
 
​As a comparison, the second graph shows the same information for South America (CONMEBOL). The number of slots available here has increased over the years. Approximately one third of teams qualified in 1982. By the time Russia 2018 comes along 45% of CONMEBOL entrants will reach the finals.

Yesterday the new FIFA president Gianna Infantino floated the idea of a 40 team World Cup. While there is an obvious quality trade-off here as we all saw from the expanded Euro 2016 Finals, it may provide a greater opportunity for European teams to reach World Cup Finals.

While things don’t often happen instantly in international football, quick changes can come about from time to time. Wales rose from a bottom qualifying seed for the 2014 World Cup to a top seed for 2018. Iceland, and to a lesser extent Northern Ireland, have shown that success on the international stage is possible, even with relatively small populations. 

by Declan Jordan

​This has been a pretty dismal season for Irish rugby clubs in European competition. Both Leinster and Munster were out of the competition with two games to play in the group stages. Ulster require a bonus point win and a string of favourable results to emerge from their group. Connacht, in the Challenge Cup, is likely to be the only Irish team in European competition after the Six Nations.
 
It’s probable that this will be the first season since 1998 that an Irish side will not appear in the knock-out stages of the elite European club competition. The situation was very different in the not-so-distant past when Munster and Leinster between them shared five titles in the six seasons between 2006 and 2012. It is important not to overstate the perceived decline of Irish club rugby based on one season (after all Munster and Leinster have appeared in the semi-finals in the last three seasons – sharing that with Toulon, Clermont and Saracens), there are persistent warnings that Irish clubs are no longer in a position to compete, and that this problem is likely to get worse before it gets better. There have been accusing fingers pointed at French Top 14 clubs (particularly Toulon) and English Premiership clubs for distorting the market for rugby playing talent with their large chequebooks – often funded by wealthy owners.
 
Toulon has now won the trophy for the last three years. Over that time their squads have boasted some the greatest names in world rugby – and this year even has former Munster and Ireland talisman Paul O’Connell. It is argued that Pro-12 clubs cannot hope to compete with the financial muscle of the French and English leagues. There are almost daily reports of threats of elite Irish players being lured to France and England to play their rugby. This is likely to be true but the claims that this prevents a level playing field ring a little hollow when the benefits that Irish clubs in particular have enjoyed during their recent successful years.
 
The success of the Irish clubs in Europe was an obvious motivating factor in the changes demanded by French and English clubs in the new qualification rules for the European Cup (formerly the Heineken Cup). In a previous post I noted that elite players at French clubs played more championship games for their clubs than their Irish counterparts.

​Since top players were centrally contracted to the Irish governing body for rugby (the IRFU), players were used more sparingly. There was very little at stake in the ‘domestic’ competition of the Pro12 (or whatever it was called at the time) since Irish clubs were guaranteed their places in the following season’s Heineken Cup. This has now changed so Irish clubs are likely to take the Pro-12 much  more seriously. (In that context, Connacht’s resurgence is even more worrying for the more dominant Irish clubs with limited country representation in European competition).
 
The lack of qualifying pressure and the implicit financial subsidy involved in the central contracting of Irish players were distortions in the “level playing field” in European rugby in Irish clubs’ favour. The lack of concern at these distortions at the time from Irish rugby commentators and officials makes their current protests less credible.

by Declan Jordan

The Economic and Social Review (Ireland's leading journal for economics and applied social science) publishes two sports economics articles in its latest issue. One of the articles is written by colleagues in UCC and this blog (the Butler Brothers). The other is an article by Barry Reilly of the University of Sussex on the demand for League of Ireland football, specifically Premier Division football.
 
This paper is particularly timely given current debates within the league and the Irish football community generally on the contents of the Conroy Report on the sustainability of the league. The paper is a very welcome contribution to the Irish sports economics literature. This is the first paper of which I am aware that conducts such a robust analysis of the determinants of demand for the league. This might primarily due to data limitations, with attendance figures for the league only recently being available more generally and being somewhat reliable. It is notable that the attendance data (sourced from extratime.ie) are, for some clubs, estimates from journalists and others in attendance rather than official club or league records.
 
The paper structures the determinants of demand around three groups of variables, expected match quality, outcome uncertainty and opportunity costs for supporters. The findings are consistent with studies for lower leagues in England and in general are unsurprising. The evidence though shatters some dearly held myths about League of Ireland attendances. For example, there is a perception that club supporters would tire of games involving the same Dublin teams too frequently in a season, but the paper finds that derbies (in Ireland these are almost completely between Dublin clubs) are strongly positive effects. Also, live TV broadcast of the game (or another game at the same time) has no significant effect on attendance and the weather seems to be irrelevant (either we League of Ireland fans are a hardy bunch or the switch to “summer soccer” has removed the weather as an important effect).
 
The key findings are that fixture quality, uncertainty of outcome (a better chance of a home win), geographical distance between the teams, recent team performance and seasonal competitive balance have positive effects on match attendance. The paper is comprehensive and should be used to inform decisions on restructuring and reform of the league. The author suggests that there is little evidence from his analysis that an increase in league size in justified and it is hard to disagree – since such a move would necessarily reduce the number of matches that had an important outcome at stake. The striking finding for me from the paper is the importance of outcome uncertainty – where “the perceived certainty of a match outcome adversely affects attendance for matches where the ex ante  home win probability is 0.25 or less” (page 504), and particularly that a fifth of matches fall into this category. This is strong evidence against an increase in the size of the Premier Division.
 
The author however goes on to recommend a “sizeable reduction” in the size of the Premier Division – and I think the case is less convincing here. The author doesn’t indicate what a sizeable reduction would be. Currently the Premier Division has 12 teams and the Conroy Report has recommended a reduction to 10 from the 2017 season. Is there a point after which the size of the Premier Division works against it being a credible competition? Greater match quality is assumed to accrue from a greater concentration of playing talent in fewer clubs and that these clubs would then be of closer quality. This may very well be the case but the semi-professional (or for some clubs amateur) status may work against clubs attracting talent, particularly for provincial clubs. A good player may be indifferent to playing with one of the many Premier Division Dublin or nearby clubs but it is more difficult for provincial clubs to attract the better players from Dublin.  In his most recent book, using a different measure, Stefan Szymanski noted that the League of Ireland was the most competitive European league, so this would seem to suggest the status quo is working in terms of competitive balance.
 
The Conroy Report refers (and the paper also makes passing reference) to having more games where something is at stake. This is not necessarily increased with fewer clubs (although more balanced clubs would likely mean greater uncertainty of outcome for individual games). The Conroy Report suggests having a break in the season where the division splits in two. In a previous post I suggested an MLS-style conference system with play-offs, which would keep clubs interested longer in the season.
 
Finally, although it is beyond the scope of Barry Reilly’s paper, the question needs to be asked about what the League of Ireland is for. If it is to generate greater interest (measured for example by attendances) then why not exclude clubs that have shown over many years that they cannot generate large crowds. Perhaps this occurs anyway with the loss of clubs like Monaghan United, Sporting Fingal and Dublin City – it is hardly likely that a club like UCD could be run on a commercial basis. However, if the league is intended to provide an outlet at senior level for as many Irish football supporters then a more regional structure is required and would need to be supported. It is relevant to note that only today the Irish Times reports that soccer is the most popular sport in Ireland – though this is hardly visible in attendances at League of Ireland grounds.
 
It is these questions that need to be answered before the league is reformed once again. The history of League of Ireland reform suggests that tinkering with league size or structure will fail to address medium to long-term sustainability without a fundamental soul-searching about the league among those who run it and care about it. Barry Reilly’s paper is a critical element in the discussions on what changes are needed, as (finally) we can point to evidence on which to base decisions.

by Declan Jordan

​In a recent post my colleague Robbie Butler raised the thorny issue of FIFA country rankings. He bemoaned the problem of countries achieving a higher world rank than should perhaps be warranted because some countries will play more competitive matches against tougher opposition because of their continental affiliation than others. He’s right of course. But the problem of games against tougher opposition is perhaps one that some countries might welcome.
 
The FIFA ranking (or to give them their full title the FIFA/Coca Cola World Ranking) is largely a marketing exercise and is of little consequence. Teams from different continents rarely play each other. In the World Cup finals, teams from various continents are generally kept apart in the group stage draw. This means the overall ranking has little impact, with a country’s position relative to other countries in the same confederation being the critical aspect. For this reason, comparing positions across confederations is of limited value.
 
It does however prompt comparison of how countries accumulate ranking points and inevitably calls into question the conduct of competitive qualification tournaments in each confederation. I have written before about my views on the unfairness of the African qualification process relative to Europe and South America. The African and European contexts are similar to the extent that both confederations have about the same number of affiliated members (54 and 55 respectively). The root of the unfairness lies in huge disparity between the number of qualifiers each continent has – Europe 13 has spaces (not including hosts Russia) and Africa has 5.
 
The African qualifying campaign for Russia 2018 has already begun, and for 13 countries has already ended. In the middle of this month it will have ended for another 20 countries – this is 30 months before the finals will be held. For me this was brought home when looking at the fixtures for my football-mad son, who is Ethiopian, and seeing that they managed to overcome Sao Tome e Principe after being surprisingly beaten 1-0 in the first leg. Their reward is a game against Congo (the eighth ranked African team) in two weeks' time. It seems he has a much better chance supporting Ireland.

Could football fans and national associations in Europe countenance a situation where the lowest 26 ranked teams would have a play-off to continue with World Cup qualifying and risk being eliminated from the World Cup in October 2015 for a 2018 World Cup Finals tournament? The bottom 26 nations in Europe currently includes Turkey, Serbia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Finland, Norway, and more importantly the Republic of Ireland.
 
The first play-offs in Africa were held last month and 13 countries have been eliminated from the 2018 World Cup – having played two matches, one at home. The second round puts the 13 winners from the first round with the remaining 27 African nations who play in a home and away qualifier – the 20 successful teams will progress to play in five groups of four teams with the winner of each group going to the finals in Russia. This means the majority of African countries (33 out of 53 in the current campaign) have less than four World Cup qualifying matches and two at home. 
 
(This contrasts hugely with the South American qualifying campaign where teams play 18 games in a league format with the top four  In fact, Ecuador and Uruguay both won less than half of their matches (7 from 16) in qualifying for the 2014 World Cup – there were 16 games in qualifying last time because Brazil qualified as hosts).
 
The argument of course is that the European teams are better and so deserve more places at the finals (one hopes it is not based on market size or Asia and Africa will soon be entitled to a lot more spaces on that criteria). The FIFA rankings can be used to justify the superiority of the European (and South American) nations. However, this is a circular argument where nations can achieve more points by playing more competitive games, with some of them against higher ranking teams). Playing these (and more of them) fixtures makes teams better – or at least gives them an opportunity to improve more rapidly. Is it possible that Wales’ dramatic improvement from 112th in the world in 2010 to 8th in 2015 could have been achieved in a qualifying environment like Africa’s? This shows the benefit of having games against the 'best' to develop players at international level.

by Declan Jordan

Fans and commentators in Gaelic Football have been very exercised by the spate of one-sided games in the All-Ireland series recently (for a primer on Gaelic games see here). There have been calls for the Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA) to "do something" or risk turning spectators away from the sport. The future of the game itself has been called into question by the more doom-laden pieces. As someone with less than a love of this particular sport, I have given very little thought to the future of the game. However, there are some very interesting sports economics issues being raised by the current debate.

Jim McGuinness said, in an article in the Irish Times last week, that the one-sided games in the previous weekend made him fear for the game. He said "the gap between the elite counties and the rest is becoming a chasm. This is blatantly obvious now, and the GAA has to address the issue urgently". His suggestions to improve the situation centre around better coaching, paid for by more money from the GAA to "poorer" counties. An alternative proposal is Joe Brolly's suggestion of a two-tier Championship to ensure closer games is one proposed solution. 

What the arguments are based on is the classic idea of competitive balance. There are growing concerns that more games at the latter end of the Championship are so imbalanced that there is no uncertainty in the outcome. Jim McGuinness worries that "if what happened last weekend at Croke Park happens for the next five years in a row, then the 60,000 people who turned up will become 30,000 and it will dwindle from there. Who wants to see that?". 

Gaelic games are unusual in that they place greater importance on the knock-out Championship than the league tournament. In some ways the league is considered as a form of preparation for the Championship. Attendances at Championship games far exceeds attendances at league matches - even league play-offs and finals. A 'back-door' element was introduced to avoid the situation for decades where half of the counties would have one Championship game every year. Now counties are guaranteed a minimum of two - which is still a difficult situation for counties that train and prepare over the winter and spring. It also mitigates against team development where a county will find it difficult to progress on the basis of two matches at Championship level in a year.

The importance of the Championship also makes it difficult to measure competitive balance in Gaelic games. The structure of the Championships - with four provincial competitions leading into an All-Ireland series - also makes it difficult to determine how much (im)balance there may be nationally. Also, a knock-out tournament may at times through up mismatches simply because of the teams drawn against each other and how those teams have fared in previous rounds' draws. This is important in the current debate because very often the availability heuristic hinders good decision-making. This means we tend to rely on immediate examples and our opinions are more heavily weighted toward more recent information. In the Sunday Independent, Eamonn Sweeney was getting at just this notion (perhaps more succinctly than me) when he referred to the idea of a two-tier championship and worries about imbalance as this year's "Big Stupid GAA Idea".

So, is there any evidence, apart from a couple of games in which Dublin and Kerry rack up huge wins? The table below shows the number of counties that have appeared at different stages in the Championship since 2004. It also shows a breakdown between 2004 and 2009 (6 seasons) and 2010 and 2015 (6 seasons) - while the winners and finalists aren't known at this stage we do know that there won't be a new team reaching those milestones.

The main story in terms of imbalance in the Championship over the past 12 seasons has been a relative decline in  Kerry dominance between the two periods. Kerry appeared in every final in the first period - winning 4 of them. Since 2010 they have had to settle for "only" 2 final appearances and 2 semi-final appearances including this year. Interestingly Kerry's dominance at provincial level is stronger in the second period (winning 5 of 6) than the first period (winning 3 of 6). Dublin have dominated Leinster winning 10 of 12 titles while they have only recently appeared as the potentially dominant county. Over this period they have no final appearances until 2011 with 2 semi-finals in the first period. In the second period they have appeared in the same number of finals (2) as Donegal, Kerry and Mayo (this may after this year's semi-finals).

Looking at the numbers in general there would appear to be some evidence of greater imbalance as the number of counties reaching a semi-final has declined. However, it would seem that these counties may be more competitive as the number of different finalists and winners has increased.

I can't recall similar calls for two-tier Championships and moves to enhance competitive balance during the mid-2000s when Kerry were dominant. Perhaps the spectre of the most populated county (Dublin) with its potential for commercial success is dominating hearts and minds. If Dublin go on to win this year expect more calls for "something to be done". Otherwise we can wait for nest season's big GAA idea.