By John Eakins & David Butler

Over coffee yesterday we chatted about the relationship between the top goal scorers in domestic leagues over a season and the title winners that year.  Somewhat to our surprise there is a weak relationship between the two. 

The data below shows the domestic league winners in England, Germany, Spain and Italy over 21 seasons (83 seasons in total and not 84 as in 2004/2005 there was no league winner in Italy) and the top domestic league scorer for each season. Earlier in the year Declan Jordan considered a similar topic here for the League of Ireland.

Only 28% of top goal scorers in each of the domestic league competitions played for the champions. It occurred 8 times in the Premier League and 7 times in Spain while only 5 and 3 times in Germany and Italy respectively. What’s more, of these 23 occurrences, the golden boot award was shared 5 times.   As John Eakins argues here this may be linked to the offensive and defensive philosophies associated with different European leagues.   

Having just one superstar seems important but may not be enough to win a league.

By Ed Valentine

                                                Sebastian Vettel: “Which tyres is he on”
                                                Race Engineer: “Primes - but he (Daniel Ricciardo) stopped later than you”
                                                Sebastian Vettle: “Tough luck!”
 
The Chinese GP didn’t give fans anything to shout about but it did provide the type of set up economists love by throwing up a mix of strategies, gains and losses based on the constantly evolving track and tyre conditions. The circuit comprises two 270° right hand corners which caused all to suffer from left front graining and it proved to be a limiting factor during the race.

Generally the trend this season compared to last is to pit one less time in race conditions. Last year, the soft and more grip-giving tyre (which is 0.6 - 0.8 of a second faster over 1 lap when used as a new set) gave optimum performance over 5 – 6 laps during a three stop strategy. This year the majority of leading runners have been aiming for two stops in race conditions as they can eek more life out of the softer rubber without falling off a performance cliff as quickly.  Eight laps into a stint in Shanghai the medium tyre became quicker as graining caused the soft compound to lose performance which essentially means that 0.6 - 0.8 of a second advantage gets whittled down and then becomes slower after those eight laps.
 
Pre-race models demonstrated that a two stop strategy would be about six seconds quicker than a three stop strategy but care would be needed to enable than to happen. The graph below shows that Fernando Alonso went for a three stop strategy.  He took the life out of soft tyres and dumped them after 12 laps. Ricciardo went for a two stop strategy.  He managed to squeeze 17 laps out of his tyres and produce competitive lap times. So why did Alonso rather than Ricciardo finish on the podium?  Because Ricciardo he could not get past his team-mate Sebastian Vettel (despite implied team orders).

Ricciardo managed to stay out for three laps longer in order to have less race laps to do during the final stint. This tactic is known as offsetting. Alonso pitted sooner than Ricciardo and offset him by four laps which gave the Spaniard more pace in the middle stint but would cause him to suffer from older tyres towards the end. This really came home to roost as Ricciardo was closing in on the Ferrari at about one second per lap.  Unfortunately the chequered flag came too soon and Ricciardo was left to rue what happened in the middle of the race.

Vettel was initially on a three stop plan but by lap 25 everyone had decided a two stopper was the optimum strategy. If Vettel had let Ricciardo through on lap 23 then Ricciardo would have caught Alonso with four laps to go. Alonso was forced into a 23 lap final stint in a bid to outwit Rosberg in the Mercedes. The Mercedes driver sailed past Alonso during the final stint as the offset didn’t work out the way of the Ferrari number 1.

This move by Alonso ultimately cost him time on the road relative to Ricciardo but Ricciardo lost out by being behind Vettel. The graphic below shows how much quicker he was than his team mate prior to being allowed past.

This cost the best part of five seconds.

Nico Rosberg's Mercedes spent much of the race catching up after a poor start but good economics got him into 2nd.

Can Mercedes be caught? The silver arrows had a 22kp/h advantage over the Red Bull on the kilometre long straight at the Shanghai International circuit. That equates to almost 100 meters or 2 seconds on average. Development through the season would allow for the better teams to find about 1.5 – 2 seconds overall. The technology is very immature and so bigger gains can be made by the teams who have more to learn from their overall package.
 
Mercedes will win the championship but their massive advantage should narrow substantially in the second half of the season.

By John Considine

Two months ago, while we were walking the dog, my eight-year old son told me he could not understand why people who found a meteor would sell it.  He pointed out that he knew they would get a lot of money for it but he asked "Why would people do that when it is a once in a lifetime experience?".  I said that it was probably because they valued the money more than the meteor.  We left it at that.  He did not say that I had helped him understand the issue and I did not ask.

In the intervening two months the GAA have sold the broadcast rights to some of their games to pay-TV and Munster rugby have announced that they are considering selling the naming rights to their iconic home (Thomond Park).  Plenty has been written about the GAA decision (including on this blog).  The Munster announcement will generate plenty of comment over the next few days.  Both decisions involve the trading of part of the sport for a monetary return.  Some people will react like my son and wonder how the GAA/IRFU could consider such a trade.  Others will say that the people involved valued the money more than what they were selling.

When I was reading the Irish Times account of the possibility of selling the naming rights to Thomond Park (here), I thought it was so appropriate that the Head of their Advisory Commercial Board was also chairman of the British Museum.  A museum.  A place where were we put things from the past like the trees from the Joni Mitchell song.  A sports museum might be a place one goes to see sports shirts without logos, stadia without corporate boxes, or low ticket prices that enabled more children to see big games.

Thomond Park is the home of Munster rugby.  It now hosts the bigger Munster games while Musgrave Park is the venue for smaller games (but has its name already sold to the Irish Independent).  Musgrave Park has also held some of the more memorable games.  In 1973 my father took an eight-year-old me to see Munster draw with the New Zealand All-Blacks at that venue.  In those days the Munster team was, what some people might claim, a team more representative of Munster - being made up of those eligible to represent the province rather than those contracted to the club for a wage.  This was the amateur era where, according to the romantics, people played for the love of the game and the area they represented (the word amateur apparently has it roots in French and Latin words for love).

Many people lament the commercialisation of sport.  One of the more thought provoking accounts, that I have read, is presented by the philosopher Michael Sandel in his book What Money Can't Buy.  It is difficult to read the chapter titled 'Naming Rights' and not feel that sport is losing something with ever increasing commercialisation.

Sandel is clear about where the blame lies for this increasing commercialisation.  The problem is market reasoning.  Economics.  He discusses the way autographs are sold.  He discuss Skyboxes for corporate clients.  He discusses Moneyball.  He says "Moneyball made baseball more efficient, in the economist's sense of the term.  But did it make it better?  Probably not."

There is a lot to what Sandel says.  Economics does change the way you look at the world.  It does change the way you thnk.  It is something that I wonder about as a teacher.  It is something that I wonder about as a father.  Last week my son returned to the issue of selling meteors.  He informed me that he now had a slightly different view on the issue.  He explained that if he found a meteor that he would not sell it until he was close to the end of his life.  He said that before he died he would sell it and give the money to his children.  I was left wondering if my response to his earlier question was responsible for a certain loss of innocence.

But, maybe we worry too much about these things.  As kids we usually do not know or care about the money side of the game.  As my father perched me on his shoulders in 1973, I knew nothing of such things.  I just wanted to see the All-Blacks and the Munster No. 10 Barry McGann.  I'd bet there are current eight-year olds who will watch Munster this weekend and will not care about whether the players are professional or amateur.  They will identify with the team and for 80mins that is all that will matter to them.  There will be plenty of older people who will feel exactly the same.

As we get older we lose some of our innocence.  David Conn describes his falling out of love with football and Manchester City when he discovers that fans pay their money to football companies rather than football clubs (see book review section of this blog).  But he later found himself drawn back as the oil-rich owner brought City back to some of its original values.  It probably also helped that City were on their way back to the summit of English football.  A similar thing might be happening to some Liverpool FC fans as they close in on their first title in 25 years. 

Around the same time that rugby folk are identifying with the red jersey of Munster, another group of people in Munster will be identifying with the red of Liverpool FC against Chelsea.  Amongst those cheering on Liverpool will be a group of economist colleagues of mine.  Being from a different country, and being economists, does not stop them using the word "we" when referring to Liverpool FC.  It would seem the emotional attachment to their team dominates their rational side!  It would seem that their training as economists has not changed them in this regard.

While we lose some innocence as we grow older we hold some values.  I have heard fans of other teams saying they would like to see Steven Gerrard win a title.  They value the fact that he is a local Liverpool lad who has only played with Liverpool (even if he nearly went to Chelsea).  Fans identify with this value.  Once a person identifies with a team, usually as an impressionable kid, they remain loyal to that team.  It is part of their identity.

Philosophers like Michael Sandel are not the only one to realise that the discipline of economics could do with some improvement.  George Akerlof and Rachel Kranton have drawn the attention of the profession to the importance of identity in economics.  Our ideas about ourselves matter.  It is the "self" in self-interest.  If my son wants to define himself as a person who thinks that meteors are priceless then maybe his economist father won't do too much damage.

By David Butler

Various media sources have carried stories that consider the impact psychiatrist Dr.Steve Peters may have upon the England squad at this summer’s World Cup, focussing on his talents in light of their disastrous shoot-out record in recent major finals.

Dr.Peters who is an English sports psychiatrist and author of the best seller the chimp paradox has previously worked with Team Sky in Cycling, with Ronnie O’Sullivan in Snooker and with many British athletes. In November 2012 he was recruited by Brendan Rodgers to Liverpool F.C. for a weekly session with the players and from what media reports suggest, comes with a sterling reputation. 

While some may argue that scoring a penalty is the greatest sign of psychological strength in football, from albeit limited experience and from casual observation I believe that looking at goals conceded in the final minutes is as good a proxy as any for evaluating a football teams mentality (yet not denying that it is of course more complex than just this).

The first graph below charts how many goals Liverpool have conceded in the last ten minutes in the approximately sixty Premier League matches since Dr. Peters has been involved with the club (I don’t know when he started exactly, but it was reportedly sometime during November 2012). The sixty Premier League games previous to his appointment are compared to this. Also I included how many of these goals occurred inside stoppage time.
 
The second graphs digs into the data a little deeper controlling for consolation goals scored against Liverpool in the last ten minutes. A goal was considered consolation if it was scored in the final ten minutes and there was already more than one goal between the teams.

While Liverpool have experienced different managers over the course of  these 120 games with alternate philosophies, many of the key personal on the pitch remained the same.  Since Dr.Peters arrival the amount of goals they have conceded in the final ten minutes has almost halved and they have only conceeded one stoppage time goal in the Premier League  (Lukaku for West Brom last season). For the sixty games previous to his appointment Liverpool conceded fourteen goals in the last ten minutes, five of which actually came in injury time - Liverpool fans may recall a particularly painful Robin Van Persie goal at 90+8.

It is unlikely that this trend is purely down to one appointment but it may help remind us that football, like all sports after all, happens between the ears!

by Declan Jordan

In a recent post I considered the relative performance of clubs based in capital cities and in particular the differences between European former Communist countries and western European countries. Reviewing the data I was struck by the relative performance of capital-based clubs in small and large countries. It appears that in smaller countries (in terms of population) capital-based clubs do better. Two sets of graphs show the relationship below. These use the same country set as the previous post. The first graphs (with a blue background) show the relationship between national population and the proportion of titles won by clubs from the capital city since 1992. The difference between the two graphs is that the second removes the outlier in terms of population (Russia). It demonstrates a quite clear negative linear relationship between country size and the performance of capital-based clubs. 

I returned to Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski's explanation of capital-based clubs' previous poor performance (and predicted future success) in Why England Lose. They suggest that in capital cities football "no football club can matter all that much". That capital cities have other attractions and diversions that provincial cities don't have and so their football club becomes more important. I have a lot of sympathy for this view living in Ireland's second city (by population) and hailing from it's third where it seems that sport matters so much more to the citizens. 

The success of provincial city football clubs and relative under-performance of capital clubs may also be based on the extent to which provincial cities have a critical mass of population on which to draw. Where the population is dispersed throughout several larger cities this may reduce the extent to which a capital-based clubs may have an advantage over provincial clubs. Combined with the 'other diversions' idea it may be that capital clubs should not be expected to do well at all. The final two graphs above show the relationship between the share of the population living in the capital city (in 2010) and the proportion of titles won by capital-based clubs since 1992. The second graph removes outliers with relatively high proportions (approximately one third) which are Latvia and Estonia. It shows a positive relationship which suggests that where the capital city population is a smaller proportion of the total population - indicating larger provincial cities and/or a more dispersed population - the less successful are capital-based clubs. More robust analysis and controlling for other factors is needed to be definitive of course.

By Robbie Butler

In a number of previous posts I shed light on horse racing in Ireland by examining the number of people employed in the sector relative to the distribution of public funds throughout the industry.

For those unfamiliar with the sport, horse racing in this country is run by Horse Racing Ireland (HRI). The industry is heavily dependent on state support. The Department of Agriculture annually invests more than €50 million into the industry, 80% of which goes to horse racing (greyhound racing gets the remaining 20%). Prior to the financial crisis, support for the sector fell under the remit of the Department of Arts, Sports and Tourism and at the peak of the Celtic Tiger received in excess of €70 million.

Horse racing was sometimes seen as a symbol of the Celtic Tiger with the now infamous 'Galway Tent' a reminder of excesses of the past. The Galway Festival was regarded as a Schelling point for many in Irish society keen to ‘beat the market’.

The growth of racing festivals has continued despite the downturn with Galway and other tracks attempting to move on from the crash of 2009. None more so than Punchestown. The April/May festival at the Co. Kildare track is now seen as a rival to the four day Cheltenham Festival held each March in the Cotswolds.

Previously, I offered an explanation as to why Irish horse racing continues to thrive internationally and why English trained horses are arriving in larger numbers to run on these shores. The answer is simple – money. Irish tracks, on average, offer more to winners, largely thanks to support received from the Department of Agriculture. English trainer Nicky Henderson couldn’t have put it better this past January. When considering whether to run his mare Une Artiste in Thurles he said:

“She [Une Artiste] could have run at Newbury for £2,700, or go to Ireland and run for more than €30,000. [I've] never been to Thurles but Barry (Geraghty, jockey) knows his way round."

Sadly for Henderson and co. the horse could only finish second.

So should we expect more English horses to come to Ireland for the Punchestown Festival in future and less Irish to travel to England? The raw data would suggest no. Despite the fact Irish tracks pay more to winners on average, the Cheltenham Festival eclipses Punchestown when it comes to prize money. If we consider Grade 1 races only at both festivals we find there are 13 at Cheltenham and 12 at Punchestown. Eleven of these races are directly comparable and are presented in the table below.

The Cheltenham Festival has little to fear. Prize money in almost every race is greater at the English track. The Gold Cup is worth than 300% plus more than its Irish equivalent, while the Champion Hurdle is worth 141% more. The RSA Novice Chase has prize money of more than double that of the corresponding race at Punchestown, the Growise Champion Novice Chase.

Only one of the eleven races is worth more in Ireland than England; the Champion Bumper. This is not surprising as the race has failed to really capture the imagination of English trainers and yet has a certain mystique in Ireland. Irish horses have dominated the event since it commenced in 1992 with nine of the last eleven winners trained in Ireland.

So while it's great to see the Punchestown Festival growing, it has a long way to go to get on terms with the Cheltenham Festival.  

By Laura Donnellan

In the 1970s, a tripartite agreement (TPA) on the movement of horses between the United Kingdom, Ireland and France was established. Under the TPA, horses could be transferred without the need for formal veterinary inspections between the three countries. In 2005 a revised TPA was negotiated and under section 4 (1) it stipulated that passports were required for horses. However, in Ireland the portal inspection facilities were not equipped to inspect horses and attest that the accompanying passport was correct nor were the personnel trained to inspect the welfare of the horses. Many horses were passing through ferry ports and border crossings without microchip numbers being checked. In most instances officials were not inspecting markings with the passport details. There were concerns about equine welfare under the 2005 TPA as the risk of undetected disease and the movement of horses destined for slaughter became increasingly apparent. The 2005 TPA resulted in horses being transferred for slaughter; however, this was not disclosed by the horse-dealers.  This posed problems for Ireland as horses are not generally bred for food in this country. As a result, many horses destined for slaughter were moving from Ireland to the UK and France in breach of the terms of the TPA. Horses destined for slaughter were required to be notified through the TRACES system (Trade Control and Expert System-a centralised database for tracking the movement of animals and products of animal origin from both within and outside the EU) and health certificates had to accompany these animals. The TPA created a loophole whereby these lower grade animals were being moved without any traceability.

In 2009 the Council of the European Union introduced legislation, Directive 2009/156/EC (OJ L 192, 23.07.2010) on health conditions governing the movement and importation from third countries of equidae. The Directive covers intra-Union movement and importation from outside the European Union. Under the Directive, exemptions may be granted for horses used for sporting, recreational or cultural purposes. The Directive had consequences for the TPA. After the horse meat scandal erupted in 2013, it was  decided that the TPA would be amended; these amendments will come into force on the 18th of May 2014. Under the new rules, the movement of “high health” horses will be traceable between Ireland and France and France and the UK. 

There are two parts to the revised TPA. The first part relates to the requirements for horses moving between Ireland and France and between the UK and France. The second part of the TPA refers to the requirements for horses moving between Ireland and the UK. 
 
On the 18th of May 2014 the transfer of horses between Ireland and France and the UK and France (and vice versa) will be restricted to the following:

• Thoroughbred horses being moved for racing, breeding, training or moving to a sale,
• Sporting horses competing in a FEI (Fédération Equestre Internationale) sponsored competition, and
• Non-registered thoroughbred horses.

Under the new TPA, all movements of horses between the UK and France and Ireland and France (and vice versa) will be required to be notified under the TRACES system. Horses demonstrated to be of “high health” by an Approved TPA body (which may include sporting associations, industry federations or similar bodies approved in Ireland, France and the UK) and travelling with a DOCOM and valid passports are exempt from the requirements of Article 4 (1) Council Directive 2009/156/EC. Movements of horses between France and Ireland and France and the UK (and vice versa) will have to be accompanied by a health certificate issued by a veterinary surgeon, as required under Article 4 (5) of Council Directive 2009/156/EC. Horses classified as “high status” which are moving between France and Ireland and the UK and France (and vice versa) have an exemption under Article 6 of the 2009 Directive. Article 6 provides that Member States with an alternative control system which provides equivalent guarantees may be exempt from the provisions of Article 4 (1) and Article 8 (1) (b) on a reciprocal basis. Article 4 (1) states that horses must show no clinical sign of disease at inspection and inspection must be carried out 48 hours in advance of the embarkment or loading of the animal. This applies only to horses registered in a studbook or likely to be registered in a studbook. Article 8 (1) (b) requires that a health certificate complying with Annex III accompany the transportation of equidae for breeding, production and slaughter.
 
Although not yet finalised, the following are likely to be the Approved TPA bodies in Ireland: 1] The Irish Thoroughbred
Breeders Association –thoroughbred breeding animals including thoroughbred animals moving to sales 2] The Turf Club - racing thoroughbreds and 3] Horse Sport Ireland –competition sport horses competing at FEI competition  events.
 
Under the category of “high health” status, such equines must be subjected “to regular veterinary supervision to ensure that a genuine high status health status is maintained” (section 4.1 TPA 2014).

Under Section 6 (1) of the 2014 TPA, in the event of a confirmed outbreak of a listed disease, the signatory Member States must notify each other within 24 hours. Section 7 of the TPA 2014 provides information on diseases. This must be communicated by either the Animal Disease Notification System (ADNS), by email or fax.
 
The movement of horses between Ireland and the UK is unaffected by the 2014 amendments as both countries have a shared health status for horses. The amendments relate only to movements between Ireland and France and the UK and France. Horses moving between Ireland and the UK must be accompanied by a passport, which was required under the 2005 TPA. 

While the 2014 TPA is to be commended, its implementation is another matter. There is a need for appropriate facilities and personnel at all ferry ports in order to ensure that the terms of the TPA are adhered to. Regular reviews will be required in order to monitor the situation.  The creation of Approved TPA bodies should greatly enhance the effectiveness of the new TPA. 

For a more detailed discussion see, Laura Donnellan, “The transfer of race horses between the United Kingdom, Ireland and France: the 2014 Reforms” (2014) 3 (1) Global Sports Law and Taxation Reports 19-21.

Laura Donnellan is a lecturer in Law in the University of Limerick.  She is the author of Sport and the Law: A Concise Guide published by Blackhall Publishing.

By John Considine

Brendan Kennelly (NUIG) sent me this link to a physics blog post on the size of sports fields.  It is based on a recent New Journal of Physics article of the same name written by Baptiste Darbois Texier and colleagues.  The blog piece is by Lisa Zyga.

A central point in the article is that the distance the ball (or shuttlecock) travels seems to determine the size of the sports arena.  The authors give the example of a game where a balloon is knocked over a net as in volleyball.  They point out that the effective length of the arena is 3 meters because that is how far the balloon will travel no matter how hard it is struck.  They note how the there is a clustering around the solid black line in Figure 2 below.  In other words, the length of sports field is around the maximum length the ball will travel.  They note that the two outlier games of Squash and Jai Alai (denoted with red squares) have walls that keep the ball in play.

The authors also examine how fast the ball covers the length of the sports field (if travelling at maximum speed).  They note that there is clear classification of ball games (badminton is different).  There are ball games that require precision & reflex actions.  These are located in the lower left-side of Figure 3.  Then there are games that take more than one movement of the ball to get them the full length of the field.  These tend to be team games that involve strategy on how to move the ball.  They also tend to have a target at the end of the field or arena.  These are located in the upper right-side of Figure 3.

By John Considine

In a previous blog post I reviewed the recommendations of the Joint Committee on Transport and Communications in relation to Sport Ireland Bill 2014 (here).  Specifically, I examined two of the recommendations they made.  One of these recommendations questioned the proposal in the Bill that the research function be brought back within the Department of Sport.  The Committee recommended that the Minister reconsider such a move.  I argued that the reasons provided for this recommendation were a bit "wishy washy".

I decided to examine how much money was involved.  The Annual Accounts of the Irish Sports Council reveal the figures.  The amounts are reproduced in the table opposite.  In the period between 2007 and 2012 the Irish Sports Council spent over €2m on research.  This represents a fairly health budget for research.  I'm guessing those with responsibility for this budget want to keep control of it.

There was a large fall in the amount spent in 2010.  While there has been some recovery in 2011 and 2012, the annual totals are less than the amounts spent in 2008 and 2009.  In both of these years the Irish Sports Council spent over half a million euro annually on research.

The Irish Sports Council funded research can be accessed here.

By Robbie Butler

For the non-football fan, the ‘away goals’ rule is probably the most difficult to understand after the offside rule. First introduced in 1965, the rule was instigated in order to determine a winner more readily in European competitions. The rule also has another idiosyncrasy. The away goals rule encourages the visiting team to be more attacking and can result in more open and exciting football matches. Economics teaches us that people respond to incentives. Footballers are no different.

Critics of the rule often argue it gives an advantage to the team playing at home in the second leg. Should extra time be required, the home team get to play an extra 30 minutes in front of their spectators. The counter argument is that the visiting team has an extra 30 minutes to score an ‘away’ goal.

For those unfamiliar with the rule it works as follows. Should a two-legged tie end in a draw once both the score from the first leg and the score from the second leg have been added together, goals scored away from home will count as double.

A recent example can be found from examining Chelsea’s win over Paris St Germain (PSG) in the Champions League quarter final. The score line from the first leg in Paris was 3 – 1 to PSG. Chelsea won the second leg in London 2 – 0. An aggregate score of 3 – 3. Chelsea however advanced to the semi-finals as they had scored one away goal (now counting double).

There have been some strange situations regarding the rule since its introduction in 1965. During the 1971-1972 season Dutch referee Laurens van Raavens wrongly ordered Rangers and Sporting Lisbon into a penalty shootout following a 6-6 aggregate score in the European Cup Winners Cup. Rangers had in fact won on away goals and following defeat in the shootout, successfully appealled the result, going on to win the competition!

The Champions League semi-final in 2003 provides an even better tale.

AC Milan are probably the only team ever to score at their home ground (San Siro) and have the goal counted as an ‘away’ goal by UEFA.  How you ask? The Rossoneri were playing against arch rivals Inter Milan, with whom they share the San Siro. Both legs were played at the same ground. AC were officially the ‘home’ team in the first leg which ended 0 – 0. Inter were the ‘home’ team in the second leg. The second leg ended 1 – 1 meaning an aggregate score of 1 – 1. AC Milan advanced having scored one ‘away’ goal to Inter Milan’s none.

I bet the designers of the rule in 1965 never thought of that one.