The Economics of Sport
  • Sports Economics
  • About
  • Workshop
  • Selected Publications
  • Book Reviews
  • A Primer on Gaelic Games
  • Upcoming Events
  • Media
  • Education
  • Resources & Links
  • Data

A Closer Look At Who Participates In Sport In Ireland

27/2/2015

 
By Robbie Butler

Recently the Central Statistics Office (CSO) released results from their sports module of the Household Budget Survey (here). John Considine wrote a short post which presented data on participation in sport and physical exercise (see here). 

I decided to dig a little deeper into the wealth of data that has been made available. I present two bar charts which examine participation in specific sports and physical exercise by gender and by region. Some interesting patterns emerge.

The first considers participation in sport and physical exercise by gender. 13 sporting/exercise categories are identified by the CSO. The participation by gender breakdown is provided below.
Picture
As one would probably expect, participation in yoga/pilates and dance categories are dominated by females. For every 97 women that engage in yoga/pilates, just three men do it. Dance is almost as unbalanced, with around 7 participating men for every 92 women. The most balanced sport in terms of participation is athletics with an almost perfect 50:50 split. 

At the other end of the yoga/pilates and dance spectrum lies soccer. This came as a surprise to me. Whilst I never doubted that men play more soccer than women, I was shocked by the size of the imbalance from the CSO figures, with around 4 female soccer players for every 96 males. There are two possible explanations for this. One is that men simply love to play soccer and drive the participation numbers way up. The other is that female soccer is not facilitated as it should be. Lack of teams, competitions and infrastructure may be discouraging/preventing women from playing the sport. This is all the more worrying in light of the wonderful press womens soccer in Ireland has received via Stephaine Roche's wonder strike - voted the second best goal in the world in 2014!.
The second figure illustrates participation in sport and physical exercise by region. Again, the data throws up some interesting findings. 
Picture
Aerobics/Gym, Swimming and Cycling make up almost 50% of participation in sport and physical exercise across all eight Irish regions. Soccer is least popular in the West region when compared to percentage participation in the other seven. Gaelic Football is virtually non-existent in the South-East, with just 0.6% of those participating in sport and physical exercise playing the sport. Soccer on the other hand has a disproportionately large playing population in the region (12.3%). This is more than 4% more than its closest rival  (8.2% of the Dublin participating population). 

Hurling and camogie are non-existent in the Border region. The CSO don't even report a figure for participation! The native codes are most popular in the West and Mid-West. Gaelic Football is strongest in the Border region and is also prominent in the Midlands, West and South-West. Golf is strongest in the Mid-East, South-East and Dublin

Finally, a closer look at capital. While not dissimilar to the rest of the country, Dubs do Aerobics/Go to the gym more than any other region. Maybe this is because those in the capital are more health conscience and wish to stay fit more than those living in other regions. Or maybe it is down to access and facilities, and the reason those in Dublin go to the gym more is simply because there are more gyms...

Fifty Shades of Greece

26/2/2015

 
By John Considine
Yesterday, the recently elected left-wing government in Greece suspended professional football indefinitely.  This first sentence, like the way the information was first conveyed to me, suggested that it was typical of the response of a government that does not know what it is doing.  Opinion is divided on how the Greek government is attempting to deal with the burden of debt that it carries.  As I read the strikingly similar media reports, I soon found that the fact that the government was left-wing and recently elected was not really important.  This is the third time this season that football has been suspended.  Syriza can't be blamed for all of the suspensions.

The proximate cause of the suspension was violence off the pitch.  The media reports talked about violence amongst fans and in the boardroom where the sport is governed.  What I find difficult to understand is how the suspension of all professional games might solve the problem.  A more usual solution is to get the offending entities to play games behind closed doors.  This solution does not seemed to have worked.  Is the suspension of all games a better approach?  Two earlier suspensions in Greece do not seem to have done the trick.

Economists will have a particular perspective(s) on the issue.  Most economists will usually suggest that the solution can be found in altering the incentives of the people who engage in this activity.  However, there may be some disagreement as to whether economics should stick to financial incentives or not.  And, there may be a few economists that argue that a rational choice model is not the way to go.  Then there is the issue of evidence and how it is interpreted.  Rather than discuss the issues involved I leave you look at the following picture from the Washington Post and refer you to the website Economists Do It With Models where Jodi Beggs discusses the issues in 'Causal Friday'.  For those who do not wish to read Jodi's explanation it should be noted that 50 Shades of Grey may NOT be a public health risk.  The exact causal relationship between violence and sport can be even harder to discern than that between 50 Shades of Grey and injuries from sex toys.
Picture
As the situation in Greece plays itself out we may be better informed about the relationship between sport and violence.  We may even find a solution.  Unlikely, but who knows for sure.

Those who have visited the Economists Do It With Models website will know that Jodi Beggs likes The Simpsons.  A few of us here on Sportseconomics.org also enjoy the antics of Homer and company.  Last summer, a number of posts on this blog examined the economics of sport using The Simpsons.  It is possible to use The Simpsons to raise some issues about the events in Greece and about the relationship between violence and sport more broadly.

In 'The Cartridge Family' it is suggested that soccer encourages violence because it is not violent and has too few scores.  A riot erupts at a soccer game because the fans seems to find it boring.  (There is also a reference to a British football hooliganism in the form of Groundsman Willie.)  The Simpsons also deals with the issue of banning sports.  In 'The Great Wife Hope', Marge takes it on herself to stop mixed martial arts contests.  Marge has to become a contestant to stop the sport!

Of course The Simpsons is a cartoon and not reality.  Yet there can be similarities with reality.  Last month, Senator Catherine Noone took to the Irish airwaves to propose the banning of Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC).  She subsequently backtracked after a cringing interview where she admitted to not having seen the sport (the Irish Independent account is here).  Senator Noone is not from a left-wing political party like Syriza.  She is a member of Fine Gael.  Opponents attempt to link the party with a fascist past when they refer to its members as "the Blueshirts".  When the debate involves labels like right-wing and left-wing then the real issues can become lost.  Sometimes it is better and more informative to consider the issues in a more abstract and humorous form such as The Simpsons.
Picture

Where Have Seria A Clubs Gone?

25/2/2015

 
By Robbie Butler

The trouble in Seria A continued last weekend when Parma, a club I would have called my “Italian team”, had to postpone their league match with Udinese as they could not afford to pay for stewarding at the game. Being a child of the 1990s I fell in love with the unfashionable Italian club whose former players include the likes of Tomas Brolin, Fabio Cannavaro, Juan Veron, Gianfranco Zola, Faustino Asprilla and the evergreen Gigi Buffon. Parma’s problems have been on-going for over a decade since local diary giant Parmalat, who financed the club, went bankrupt. 

In many ways the club are indicative of what is going on in Italian football at another level; European performance. The club won the European Cup Winners Cup and European Super Cup in 1993, and the UEFA Cup in 1995 and 1999. Italian football was in its pomp. This era wasn't short lived. As late as 2003 AC Milan and Juventus played out a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford in an all-Italian Champions League Final. 

Despite a Seria A club winning the again in 2007 (AC Milan) and 2010 (Inter Milan), Italian clubs really aren’t competing the way they used to. In an economic sense, one could argue the league is now caught in a vicious circle, with no tendency towards equilibrium possible since the reduction of its Champions League qualification slots in 2012. This is primarily due to the performance of Italian clubs and the national league’s UEFA ranking.
Picture
Despite being clearly ahead of the German Bundesliga in 2010, Seria A is now ranked much lower than its German equivalent. Should the rapid improvement of French clubs continue, thanks to the inflow of foreign investment, it’s like Seria A will be ranked the 5th best league in the near future.  

Champions League performance has also declined since the all-Italian final of May 2003. The illustration below graphs Italian club participation from the Group Stages of the Champions League to the Final from the 2003-2004 season to this season. The last time 4 Italian clubs made the Group Stages of the competition was 2009-2010. Since 2010 Sampdoria, Udinese (twice) and Napoli have all been beaten in the 3rd Qualifying Round. Inter Milan were the last Seria A club to reach the semi-final stage, and actually went on to lift the trophy, but that was in 2010. 

Picture
With only Juventus left, it may be the case that we have no Italian representative left in Europe’s premier club competition by the end of this round. Watch this space.

The Winners Curse in Sport

24/2/2015

 
By David Butler

The winner's curse is the tendency for individuals to overbid in common value auctions when information between buyers and sellers is not complete. If you are bidding in an auction with many others for an asset that you don’t know the value of, a winning bid can be overly optimistic and it can exceed the intrinsic value of the asset purchased. Simply put, if you win an auction when you don't really know what something is worth, there’s a chance you’ll be had! This curse has been shown to even affect experienced bidders.

This curse was originally conceptualized in light of auctions for oil reserves in the Mexican Gulf and famous experiments by William Samuelson and Max Bazerman during the 1980’s showed how buyers in the lab consistently fail to appreciate their information disadvantage when formulating a bid in bargaining games. When the best strategy to take is to opt out, the temptation to bid is too much for some. 

Economists have since looked to sport as a means to test for the winner's curse in the field. The big advantage of sport is that it provides scope for productivity evaluations that other auctions do not. We can tell how well an asset has performed after they are purchased, in this case a sports star.  

In particular, economists have looked toward baseball. The original study on the topic was by James Cassing and Richard Douglas. In 1980 the researchers analysed the bidding strategies of potential buyers of free agents in Major League Baseball, as naturally each franchise would place a different value on what a free agent is worth. The researchers found that from 1975 to 1980 free agents were overpaid relative to their productivity. A second study that cited the winner's curse was written in 1993 by Lawrence Kahn. While his research did not specifically set out to address the curse, Kahn ended up explaining his results in light of it. His study looked at salary and contract length for virtually all Major League Baseball players from 1987 to 1990. The winner's curse or 'super competitive' bidding was found again.  The most recent study comes from 2008 by John Burger and Stephen Walters who revise downward the strength of Cassing and Douglas’ (1980) original findings. Using superior measures of productivity to gauge player performance, they argue that there was positive returns to free agency over the late 1970’s and also the 1990’s. They suggest a ‘weak-form’ version of the winner's curse exists as the full expectations of buyers may still not be met.  

More information is often suggested as a solution to this curse but given that status and buying superstars for commercial purposes seems to be important across sports, it may always be the case that owners are not particularly concerned about efficiency or rational bids. Bounded rationality with a boosted ego may do just fine!

Sport – Live, in the Technicolor of Money

23/2/2015

 
By Pádraig MacConsaidín

1946. Fifty minutes. Twenty in the first half, thirty in the second, the first live televised soccer match broadcast by the BBC, with coverage cut short due to fading light and limited technology.

2016. 168 live games at an average of £10.2 million per game. Saturday packages, Sunday packages and for the first time ever, Friday night fixtures. A record deal for live broadcasting rights to the English Premier League (EPL) with Sky and BT having agreed to pay £5.136bn for live TV coverage rights for three seasons from the beginning of the 2016/17 campaign. A deal on this scale may be new to the UK, but they have been getting progressively bigger over the years, and the EPL now joins the top table of sports broadcasting deals.

The new Sky and BT deal with the EPL represents the fourth largest broadcasting deal in history in terms of total amount paid for rights, behind the NFL (American Football), NBA (basketball) and MLS (baseball). In terms of cost per annum, the deal is tied with the NBA as the second most expensive agreement, as reflected in the table below.
Picture
Source: BBC
In the US TV rating wars, the sports field is a key battleground. With 97% of all sports programming being watched live, in the world of megabucks TV deals, the gravy train that is the NFL rules supreme. The most recent TV rights deal began with the season just gone and will run through until 2022. The NFL’s broadcast packages with CBS, NBC, Fox and ESPN reflects an increase of 60% on the previous deal, with ESPN committing to pay the greatest amount in order to secure the exclusive rights to the lucrative Monday Night Football slot. The slot, a weeknight in prime time, is the highest rated show on US cable television. In an environment where peoples’ consumption of broadcast content is changing, with the rise of online video services, sports broadcasting has become the last bastion for broadcasters in what may be argued is a stagnating television market. Governing sporting bodies hold the monopoly on power.  Supply and demand in action, and in the US, working for the NFL. 
Picture
Source: BBC
PictureSource: BBC
While the EPL deal is relatively modest in comparison to that of the NFL, what the agreement does reflect is the upward trend in the revenue to the EPL from TV income since the league’s inception. From modest beginnings of £191m over a five year period in 1992, the new deal represents a 2,589% increase on the value of the TV agreement. With the EPL’s global appeal growing and coverage broadcast in over 212 territories across the world, the EPL’s claim to be the world’s most watched league holds some validity. The continued growth in popularity of the EPL’s rendering of the beautiful game, the now commonplace foreign preseason tours of the league’s biggest and best, and the mooted overseas regular season games - similar to the NFL’s arrangement with London; mean that the continued rise in popularity of the EPL could potentially lead to TV income to rival the NFL, given the nature of soccer’s global appeal.

In a previous post, reference was made to the fact that the arrival of the EPL, BSkyB and TV revenue heralded an influx of non-British players in search of lucrative financial rewards. Following the announcement of the new EPL deal, the President of La Liga, Javier Tebas, sounded a warning to Spanish clubs to have a more equitable distribution of TV revenue or face losing its stars to the EPL. This would no doubt only further increase the profitability and selling power of the EPL product for future TV deals. Time will tell, but would Messi, Rodríguez or Ronaldo really fancy it on a wet, blustery night in Stoke? For the right price, I venture they would.

Pádraig MacConsaidín holds a BSc Government degree from University College Cork and is the Department of Government, Richard Haslam - Graduate of the Year 2014.

Market Forces in the Europa League

20/2/2015

 
By Robbie Butler

I had some sympathy for my brother (and fellow blog contributor) David when we met at the gym this morning. I asked him had he watched his team (Tottenham) in the Europa League last night. He turned to me and said “No – market forces”.

Last Autumn, following Liverpool’s return to the Champions League I joked with him about Spurs’ European adventures compared to the bright lights of Madrid (where Liverpool were heading). We even spoke about whether Spurs would have been better off (in football terms) if they had finished below Manchester United last season and been absent from European competition.  Each Thursday I would joke and ask questions such as “Who are you playing in the Thursday Cup tonight?” of “What part of the USSR are you visiting this week?”

The joke was on me come November. Liverpool’s draw with Basle in Match Day 6 sent the Merseyside club into the Europa League by virtue of finishing 3rd in their Champions’ League group. While I had enjoyed Tuesday and Wednesday night football, David and every other Spurs fan, had soldiered on Thursday nights watching Spurs play Partizan, Beşiktaş and Asteras Tripolid on 3e no less!

February arrives. Spurs played Fiorentina at White Hart Lane last night. 3e broadcasts from Anfield.. Even Setanta Ireland couldn’t save him. Celtic versus Inter Milan was shown live.

Why? The answer is simply market forces. Until Spurs fans outnumber Liverpool fans in Ireland it’s hard to see the day when the former will get precedence over the latter, ceteris paribus. Good news for me but you do have to feel sorry for all those Tottenham supporters who have followed their team this autumn and winter through lesser-known-Europe. Don’t worry though – we’ll make sure you’ll never walk alone. 

 Will Spurs and Liverpool be disrupted by the Europa League?

19/2/2015

 
By David Butler

Not for the first time this year the media has considered the perverse effects of playing in the Europa League. Today, Sky Sports reported  “there has been a remarkable improvement to Liverpool and Tottenham's results [in the EPL] since their last European ties on December 11 and 12”.

It's commonly insinuated that playing in the Europa League causes a ‘hangover’ and that juggling two competitions influences domestic performance.  Taking account of all the data since the beginning of the Europa League competition in the 09-10 season, it becomes clear that English teams that reached the group stages of Europa League have actually won more domestic matches three days later following a Thursday night match.

While I don’t control for the standard of opposition here (as Europa Cup entrants are usually above average performers), the location of the EPL match, or compare post Thursday results to the rest of a teams results, the aggregate stats on an issue that has an important temporal component suggests that there’s not much in the 'hangover' idea. At best there may be some weak effect going on.  
Picture

Two Interesting Findings From Penalty Shootouts

19/2/2015

 
By David Butler

I came across two interesting papers published relatively recently when researching penalty kicks. Both consider psychological variables that influence one party, either the goalkeeper or the kicker in a penalty shoot-out. 

1. The first finding comes from a paper published in Psychological Science in 2011 by Roskes, Sligte, Shalvi, and  De Dreu. This one relates to goalkeepers. The researchers collected data from World Cup penalty shootouts and show that Goalkeepers are more likely to dive to the right when in a losing position in a penalty shoot-out. This is attributed to psychological bias towards choosing 'right' when forced to act quickly. 

2. The second paper comes from 2009 and was published in Psychology of Sport and Exercise. This time the application is to the penalty taker.  The researchers, Jordet, Hartman and Sigmundstad show that there is a link between a penalty takers success and the length of time taken between the referee’s whistle to signal a player can proceed and when the kick is actually taken. Taking a longer time to respond to a referee’s 'ready signal' was positively correlated to successful conversions. John Considine has since told me that the book Scorecasting (reviewed by John in the book section of this website) has a  short chapter on the 'myth' that the opposition should delay (or ice) the kicker in American Football.  The data does not support the strategy for soccer.

So, when it comes to penalties maybe goalkeepers should jump to the left more and kickers should try to leave nations hold their breath a little longer!

Cartels, Cricket & Ireland

18/2/2015

 
PictureEoin Morgan: The Irish Cricketer who Captains England
By Gary Burns

Monday’s success at the Cricket World Cup by Ireland over the West Indies is fueling a debate about the development of cricket in Ireland and the opportunities for the non-Test Playing nations. The ICC displays elements of a sporting cartel, which makes it difficult for any team outside the test status nations to decide games, funding and even participation at the next world cup.

Ireland have history when it comes to upset victories, defeating Pakistan in 2007, England in 2011 and now West Indies. These results prove an ability to compete at the top level. Ireland is ranked 11th in the world and have associate nation status. Only ten countries have test status. Ireland have achieved these victories with just nine One Day Internationals (ODIs) against Test playing nations in the past four years. England have played 21 ODIs in 2014 alone against Test status nations. The top eight teams in particular have a clear advantage in that tours and schedules are very much geared to their needs. The victory has further muted the ICC's claim that cricket is only competitive among eight teams on which they are basing the restriction of the next World Cup to ten teams. Of course, one victory at a world cup does not warrant a change in rules, however if Ireland were to advance from their group by finishing in the top four of seven, the ICC would certainly have to reconsider its position.

A comparable situation perhaps is the Rugby World Cup, which facilitates 20 teams. It is comparable in the sense that there is a limited number of ‘top’ teams. Since 2000, rugby has increased the traditional tournaments in the Northern and Southern hemisphere to six and four teams respectively to promote the development of the game in Italy and Argentina. A veritable cartel approach in cricket means that the traditional nations (top 8) have a guaranteed income stream from tours and matches against each other. It suits these teams, as revenue does not have to be diluted among further nations. The ICC is off setting future development outside of these countries to maintain the status quo for existing test nations.

Further to this Ireland has the problem that players who stay with Ireland do not get the opportunity to play test cricket, which has meant some players have switched allegiance to the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB). Most notably the current England ODI captain Eoin Morgan and Boyd Rankin. Virtuous and vicious cycles emerge under the current arrangement.

If the associate nations are to be competitive which is the excuse for reducing the world cup numbers, then Ireland , Scotland, UAE, Afghanistan and Netherlands have to be ,at the very least, given an opportunity to play against the test status nations, particularly against the top eight (Australia, England, India, New Zealand, Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka and West Indies).

The term upset and giant killing has been used to describe Ireland’s most recent victory. This is perhaps a truism in the sense that our team has limited opportunities to beat a traditional cricketing powerhouse. However if Ireland continually defeat these nations which they have in world cups then perhaps it will become more expected of them.

Most sports have a top tier, however most sports incentivise the lower tier nations by offering a chance to promote themselves. The induction of many smaller states in international soccer is testament to this. In international soccer and rugby newer states may not drastically improve but it serves to develop the sports. This is currently not the case in cricket.

Latest Figures on Participation in Sport and Exercise

18/2/2015

 
By John Considine
The Central Statistics Office have released the results of their sports module from the Household Budget Survey (here).  There is a wealth of information provided for those interested in the numbers.  Below is Figure 1 from the release.  It shows that 37.9% of the population are engaged in sport.  Another 27.5% are engaged in walking for recreational purposes or utility purposes.

I'm guessing that over the coming weeks there will be a number of blog posts that will drill down into the data.
Picture
<<Previous

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013

    About

    This website was founded in July 2013.

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    American Football
    Athletics
    Baseball
    Basketball
    Behavioural Economics
    Boxing
    Broadcasting
    Competitive Balance
    Cricket
    Cycling
    Darts
    David Butler
    Declan Jordan
    Drugs
    Ed Valentine
    Epl
    Esports
    Expenditure
    F1
    Fifa World Cup
    Finances
    Funding
    Gaa
    Gaelic Games
    Gambling
    Game Theory
    Gary Burns
    Geography
    Golf
    Greyhound Racing
    Guest Posts
    Horse Racing
    Impact Studies
    John Considine
    John Eakins
    League Of Ireland
    Location
    Media
    Mls
    Mma
    Olympics
    Participation
    Paul O'Sullivan
    Premier League
    Regulation
    Research
    Robbie Butler
    Rugby
    Simpsonomics
    Snooker
    Soccer
    Spatial Analysis
    Sporting Bodies
    Stephen Brosnan
    Swimming
    Taxation
    Teaching
    Technology
    Tennis
    Transfers
    Uefa
    Ufc
    World Cup
    Wwe

Related

The website is not formally affiliated to any institution and all of the entries represent the personal views and opinions of an individual contributor. The website operates on a not-for-profit basis. For this reason we decline all advertisement opportunities. 

Contact

To contact us email sportseconomics2013@gmail.com or find us on Twitter @SportEcon.