By Robbie Butler

On Sunday I sat in a Dublin pub, prior to kick-off in the Ireland Poland game, watching Scotland take on Gibraltar in their UEFA European Championship qualifier. Both Irish and Polish fans had an interest in the game given that Scotland are very much in the mix for qualification to the finals from Group D.

As expected, Scotland started the game in complete control. However, having taken the lead after 18 minutes, Scotland then did the inexplicable – they conceded a goal. This was Gibraltar’s very first competitive goal and the name Lee Casciaro will now go down in history. The Lincoln Red Imps FC player was winning his 5th cap when he silenced Hampden Park and sent the hundred or so travelling supporters into delirium. Normal service did resume thereafter and Scotland ran out 6 – 1 winners.

Given the structure of the European Championship Groups, one could question the value of allowing a nation like Gibraltar to participate. While the top two teams will qualify directly from each group, the highest ranked third-placed team will also qualify. However, as one group contains just five teams, matches against any 6th placed team in each group will not be included in this ranking.

Many nations, like Gibraltar, face a similar uphill struggle. The problem is obviously one of population, a key ingredient in economic growth as well as football. Gibraltar simply doesn’t have the numbers. I have a tendency to group ‘smaller’ countries together when in fact they face very different circumstances. Excluding Kazakhstan, which has a population of over 16 million, the other Pot 6 (bottom seeds) countries in the UEFA European Championship Qualifying draw were Luxembourg, Liechtenstein, Andorra, Faroe Islands, Malta and San Marino. The populations in each country are presented below and compared to Gibraltar.

Whilst one might think these countries are ‘all the same’, the population’s stories tell us something very different. Gibraltar has just 30,000 citizens. That’s the equivalent of a large Irish town like Bray or Navan. Luxembourg and Malta are vastly more populated. Even Andorra has more than two-and-a-half times the population of Gibraltar. San Marino is very similar to the tiny British Territory. Since the Italian surrounded microstate entered UEFA qualifying in 1990 they have played 124 games. Their record to date reads Won 1 - Drawn 4 - Lost 119. It could be a long road ahead for Gibraltar.  

In terms of contribution to their team’s overall goals, Charlie Austin has had the highest contribution, playing an active part in two thirds of all QPR’s goals this season. Burnley’s Danny Ings is second in terms of involvement in team’s goals either scoring or assisting in over half of all Burnley’s goals this season. Given both these clubs currently lie in the Premier League relegation zone, injury or suspension to either of these players would have a significantly negative impact on the chances of the team’s Premier League survival.

Harry Kane has been a revelation for Tottenham Hotspurs this season, particularly since the turn of the year. Kane has contributed scored 16 goals and provided 6 assists which accounts for 48% of all Spurs’ goals. The loss of Kane’s contribution would see Spurs drop 19 points, the highest points contribution by any one player. Also, Tottenham have failed to win any of the four games which Kane has not featured, highlighting his importance to Spurs competitiveness. Alexis Sanchez highlighted his importance to Arsenal’s quest for Champion League football with 13 goals and 7 assists which resulted in winning 19 points for the Gunners so far this season.

The over reliance of clubs on one key player can seriously undermine a club’s ‘long term’ competitiveness over the course of the season. Sergio Aguero has scored in just 2 out of Manchester City’s last 9 games which has seen the club drop 15 points and lose serious ground in the title race. Man. City’s only marginal hope of a title challenge is a result of Chelsea dropping six points on the back of Diego Costa’s return of 1 goal in last 6 games. Down the other end, Aston Villa’s survival chances have been boosted by the form of their star man Gabby Agbonlahor (3 goals in 2 games) which has resulted in 6 points while the fate of Burnley, Leicester and QPR looks grim on the back of their star player’s recent form (Austin 2 goals in 8, Ings 3 goals in 8 and Ulloa 0 goals in 10).

Stephan Brosnan is a research assistant working in the Department of Economics at University College Cork. 

By Robbie Butler

I recently spoke about the challenges facing the Qatar 2022 World Cup, the first World Cup in history not to be played during the traditional, Northern Hemisphere summer months. Both FIFA and the organisers in Qatar have gone to great lengths to explain the need for the switch, and argue that football simply cannot be played in conditions of 45 -50 degrees Celsius during the months of June and July in the tiny Gulf state.

And therein lies another problem. Qatar is tiny by global standards. 

Depending on what you classify as a country, Qatar comes in as the 164th biggest state on the planet, one place behind the Falkland Islands! Since the World Cup went to a sixty-four game tournament in 1998 thirty-two teams have competed in the Finals. World Cup Finals have been staged in France (1998), Korea & Japan (2002), Germany (2006), South Africa (2010) and Brazil (2014). The illustrations below show how Qatar (purple) compares in terms of its geographic size to each of these former hosts (pink).

Another problem is surely the location of the twelve proposed hosting venues, spread across seven locations six of which are located on the eastern side of the Qatar Peninsula.  Doha (4) and Al Rayyan (3), which lie just 55km away from one another, will together provide seven of the stadia for the event. The locations of Al Daayen, Al Khor, Ash-Shamal, Al Wakrah and Umm Salal will each provide one stadium.  

Finally, just for the Irish perspective, here’s how Qatar compares to Ireland. Ireland (70,273 km²) is 6.07 times as big as Qatar (11,571 km²). In fact, counties Cork and Kerry combined cover some 12,300km², roughly 760km² more than Qatar.

Maybe this Rugby World Cup bid isn’t a bad idea after all…;-)

By Stephen Brosnan

This time twelve months ago, Roy Hodgson was less than two months away from picking his England squad for Euro 2014. At the time he said "I have to do it on the merits of the players. It's not like it has been in the past sometimes where loyalty can be rewarded."

Fast forward 12 months and Roy’s sentiment seems to have changed somewhat. Discussing the selection of England’s most in form striker Harry Kane for England’s upcoming fixtures Hodgson stated “Often if someone like Kane is going to come into the squad, then someone is going to drop out and up until now most of the players that we've had, at least in the forward area of our squad, have done quite well for us during the autumn, so you can't include everybody unfortunately.” The England strikers Hodgson selected for England’s autumn fixtures were Wayne Rooney, Danny Welbeck, Rickie Lambert and Saido Berinho. Table 1 looks at the performance of these strikers compared to other English strikers in the Premier League to assess whether they deserve to keep their place on merit or are selected based purely on reputation.

Harry Kane is the most inform striker in the Premier League averaging 8.4 points per game in Fantasy Premier League. Kane is the highest scoring English forward in the Premier league (16 goals) and joint highest assists, with Danny Welbeck (4 assists each). Also, Kane has the best goals per minute ratio, averaging a goal every 105.5 minutes in the Premier League. Charlie Austin is the second highest English goal scorer in the Premier League and second in goals per minute played, averaging a goal every 144 minutes. These figures are even more impressive considering Austin is playing for relegation battling QPR.

By contrast, looking at England’s strikers from their last squad we can see Saido Berinho, who didn’t feature in any of England’s games is highest scorer with 12 goals followed by Wayne Rooney on 10. Arsenal’s Danny Welbeck, England’s highest scorer in  the World Cup qualifiers has only registered 4 Premier League goals ( 1 every 388 minutes) while Rickie Lambert has only registered 2 goals all season since his transfer to Liverpool (1 every 303 minutes). These rates are lower than Jermain Defoe and Peter Crouch who have long been forgotten in the international scene.

Roy Hodgson announced his squad this morning which included Wayne Rooney, Daniel Sturridge, Danny Welbeck and Harry Kane in the forward line. Realistically, given Rooney’s position of England captain only three forward places were available in the squad. Hodgson’s selection seems to be a mixture of both form and reputation. In-form players such Berinho, Austin and Ings are excluded in preference to fit again Daniel Sturridge and ‘marmite’ player Danny Welbeck, England’s top scorer in qualification so far. Also, Harry Kane has been rewarded for his fine form with his first senior call up.

Hodgson’s selection can be considered a safe bet. England’s most in form striker has been included along with the players who have been there and done it. All the strikers are on the books at clubs usually challenging for Champions League places which begs the question whether Berinho, Ings and Austin’s form would have warranted a call up if they did not play for less attractive clubs such as West Brom, QPR and Burnley. However, that is a question for another day.

Stephan Brosnan is a research assistant working in the Department of Economics at University College Cork.