By Robbie Butler

The UEFA Nations League returned last night and will continue over the coming days. For those unfamiliar with the tournament, the competition has been created by UEFA to reduce the number of friendly internationals teams play, and offers an opportunity to qualify for Euro 2020. Unfortunately for the Republic of Ireland we have had little to cheer. Things could change on Monday night when the country travels to Denmark, and a win would lift team moral going into the UEFA European Qualifiers.

The game on Monday night (and those in the Nations League that have preceded it) has one oddity when compared to other Irish international games. It is a competitive fixture that is not available on free-to-air television. The reason this is unusual is down to European Commission rules and the Irish Statute Book.

At present, EU Member States can designate sporting and cultural events as being of major importance to society. Any events so designated should be available on a free-to-air television service.The  Irish Statute Book (2016) currently says "All events deemed to be “of major importance to society for which the right of a qualifying broadcaster to provide coverage on a live basis on free television services should be provided in the public interest”. This list includes, amongst other things,Ireland’s home and away qualifying games in the European Football Championship and the FIFA World Cup Tournaments, and Ireland games in the European Football Championship Finals and FIFA World Cup Finals Tournament.

Effectively, this means all competitive games involving the team must be shown on free-to-air television in the "public interest".

​The Nations League has recently joined the list of UEFA competitions. I wonder if this competition will be added to the Statute Book when reviewed by the Former Minister for Communications, Climate Action and Environment. Last year the Minister added the "All-Ireland Senior Ladies Gaelic Football and Camogie Finals to the Free to Air designation list with full backing from the Cabinet and the European Commission".

It would seem to make sense for Nations League games to join the list. 

By Robbie Butler

Major League Soccer (MLS) will complete its 23rd season on the 8th of December 2018 when the MLS Cup Final is held. The competition is currently in the semi-final stage with Atlanta United FC, New York Red Bulls, Portland Timbers and Sporting Kansas City all still standing in the competition.

For those unfamiliar with the MLS, the competition design is somewhat different to European soccer leagues. For one the top domestic prize is referred to as a "cup". This is effectively akin to winning the league, but mirrors that of other popular US sports in that there is a regular season, followed by the playoffs. The upside of this approach is that teams finishing as low as 6th in either conference (split east/west) can be crowned winners of the MLS Cup.

This approach has similarities in Europe. The Champions League can be won by finishing as low as 4th in one's domestic league, and second in the qualifying group. The Championship Playoffs in English League Football involve teams placed 3-6 (or 4-7 in League 2) battling it out for promotion. Rugby league's Super League is the closest competition design I can think of in a European context to mirror the soccer in the United States.

Whether you are for or against this competition design, one cannot but marvel at the opportunity for franchises to succeed. Atlanta United are in just their second season of the Eastern Conference of Major League Soccer, yet "The Five Stripes" are within touching distance of a place in the MLS Cup Final. Only New York Red Bulls stand in their way. 

The closed system that is MLS, and most of US sport, somewhat facilities this. Maybe this is the reason why the 23 franchises in the league this year will become 24 once FC Cincinnati join in 2019, and 26 by 2020 once Inter Miami and Nashville join the league. And their chances of success are much higher than in top European leagues. The figure below presents data on the number of league winners in each league since the first MLS season in 1996, and the number of league wins accumulated by the most successful club. 

Major League Soccer is more competitive than any of the top European leagues. As the theory would suggest, open systems with promotion and relegation, tend to foster inequality among teams. Winning the league title may be of far less concern to clubs who fear the threat of relegation. 

On the other hand, in a closed system (such as the MLS or Major League Baseball), in theory each team has equal probability of success (winning the Championship) at the start of the regular season. Maybe this why there have been 12 different MLS Cup Champions since 1996, and just 5 different champions in England, Spain and Italy. 

The system in the US might be much different to Europe but there are certainly things that could be learned. ​I'm sure fans of German and Italian soccer, other than Bayern Munich and Juventus supporters, would agree as the former look to win their seventh title in a row, and Juventus their 8th title on the spin.

By Daragh O'Leary

My favourite sports quote of all time is “the more I practice, the luckier I get”. It was made by South African golfer Gary Player. The quote is brilliant because it sheds light on a much debated topic within sports, the talent vs development debate. The talent side of the debate states that great sportspeople are born with a predisposition towards being good at their sport. The development side subscribe to the view that “great players are made and not born”. The debate tends to polarise people to one side of the fence or the other.

On one hand there are exceptional sportspeople who may be considered “late bloomers” and take longer to develop than others (Jamie Vardy). However, there also seems to be people who were destined for greatness at a very young age (Kylian Mbappé). To try and see which side of the debate is correct I took a look at 18 players from Manchester City’s squad that played Burnley two weeks ago and took note of the age where they first received their international cap, be it at underage or senior level.

Here, receiving an international cap is a proxy for talent being recognised as to receive one you have to be viewed as one of the best, if not the best in your country. The idea here is that if natural talent exists, it should be prevalent and easily observable in the majority of cases from a very young age. Or in other words, if natural talent is the reason people go on to play international football at senior level, then they should have been playing at international level from the year they were eligible to do so. However, this doesn’t seem to be the case in the data.

 If we look at splitting the players into two groups, children (U18) and adults (18 or over) then it’s a 50:50 split. Some player’s talents are recognised from a very young age, David Silva at 15 for example. Whereas some players don’t fully blossom until later into their career, Riyad Mahrez at 23 for example. While it’s nice to see the dispersion of ages at which players made their first international appearance, the findings aren’t conclusive enough to prove which side of the debate is correct.

Half the sample received international caps at a young age, indicating they may have had a natural predisposition toward being good footballers; but the other half were adults by the time they finally received their first international cap, indicating they may be the product of development and practice.

So, is it the case that these “late bloomers” are people who had a natural talent and it layed dormant within them during their childhood? Or is it the case that we perceive people who are good at something at a young age as naturally talented because that’s the most readily available information to us and we just haven’t seen the endless hours they’ve put in in training? This is definitely an area where more research could provide valuable insight.

By John Considine

It is easy to find a variety of Vince Lombardi quotes where the man states that there is a price to be paid for anything worthwhile.  While sportspeople may occasionally forget this sentiment, those involved in sport at any serious level agree with Lombardi.  Those who play Gaelic games are no different.  This can be confirmed by a reading of a recent Economic & Social Research Institute report written by Elish Kelly and colleagues.

The report is titled Playing Senior Inter-County Gaelic Games: Experiences, Realities and Consequences and it presents a huge volume of data on the self-reported experiences of the players.*  Probably my favourite picture in the report is Figure 6.26 (reproduced below).  Allowing for all sorts of potential biases in the responses, it is a pretty impressive endorsement of the experience.  Much of the report detailed the demands on these amateur players but the bottom line was that virtually all respondents agreed with the statement "I am glad I made the choice to play inter-county".

Looking at some of the other responses, it would seem that the price paid was primarily in terms of forgone income.  Figure 6.30 of the report shows that the single biggest reasons for ceasing to play inter-county was to "Focus on Professional Career" (47.6%).  The same percentage (47.6%) said that the area they would like to spend more time on was their Professional Career (Figure 6.20).

The beauty of Figure 6.26 is that it gets to the essence of the issue.  Admittedly, it is being asked after the decision.  However, as Professor Eamon O'Shea said at the launch of the report, there is a revealed preference issue here.  The guys chose to play.  They were prepared to pay the price.

Of course, sportspeople are prepared to haggle about the price (or other elements).  Those who play Gaelic Games successfully lobbied for government funding in the form of grants to players.  I have encountered a few students, from various sports, who initially seek special treatment because of the impact of the sporting endeavours on their academic performance.  (They could do with remembering that Lombardi's words have wider significance - whether it is sporting or academic achievement, "you've got to pay the price".)

The value of the report is that there are concerns about the price paid by inter-county players.  It is important that playing inter-county remains within the price range of most.

​
[* I was a member of the Oversight Committee for the Report.]

By David Butler

RTE covered an interesting story yesterday of research by scientists at TCD and UCD looking at the genetic structure behind the speed of a race horse. The news story can be read here. As it suggests this would offer valuable information to breeders and trainers, who have to decide the optimum distance for a thoroughbred.

My take on the science is that the researchers have located, at a genetic level, what regulates the production of myostatin protein – this proteins affects horse muscle and thus their ability to run alternative distances.  

I am by no means an expert on horse biology and I am left wondering to what extent is this a heritable trait? I’d be surprised if this wasn’t discovered and accounted for by breeders and trainers already through the trial and error of the breeding process (at a non-genetic level). Surely they have learned of a horse’s raw ability early on in the training process? It would be interesting to measure how far off the judgments of trainers would be compared to the scientific recommendations.

Heritable traits do act as important indicators to buyers as seen through hammer prices, but how much of thoroughbred’s performance is attributed to genetic lineage is highly debatable. The Irish Horseracing body publicly discloses this uncertainty to potential buyers, suggesting that the attribution to genetics can even be as low as 9%. Lineage seems to offer a loose guide.

If it was possible to identify a ‘speed gene’ when thoroughbreds were only foals or yearlings, what would the implications be? My guess is that balance within races may be affected - more information could increase the precision of trainers’ judgment regarding the ideal distance for a horse. Also sale and hammer prices could be influenced if buyers seek out this information in veterinary reports. For instance, knowing that your potential purchase will be stayer may limit the selection of races relevant for the animal, the associated prize money and hence your estimate of the thoroughbred's value.

My skepticism is always raised when I hear any claim identifying an ‘x/y/z gene’ but it will interesting to see how this develops. In some ways the uncertainty associated with the breeding process and the genetic ambiguity creates lots of the drama – this reminds me of the Ned Flanders quote from the Simpsons episode Lisa the Skeptic when he claims that “science is like a blabbermouth who ruins the movie by telling you how it ends. Well, I say there are some things we don't want to know. Important things.”

Knowing these things about horses are clearly important but despite scientific advances genetics is only part of the story and I don’t think we will be able to ever know “how the movie ends” - environmental factors such as course, weather, going, jockey, training, the role of other horses will probably always keep the drama in place.

By Robbie Butler

In 1988 Calgary hosted the Winter Olympics. The Canadian city overcame competition from Falun in Sweden and the northern Italian town of Cortina for the right to host the games. Some thirty years later, Calgary once again wants to host the Games. This time it must overcome obstacles at the home, the most obvious being the local taxpayer.

In order for the bid by Calgary to continue, local taxpayers are going to the polls next week in order to decide if some $2.8 billion dollars of public money should be used to fund the Games.

Canadians are better placed that most when it comes to such questions. The 1976 Summer Games in Montreal  is a classic example of a spending overrun. The Olympic Stadium cost more than 5 and a half times the original estimate and ended up with an outlay of around $1.4 billion. The legacy of this meant that Canadian's were still incurring the financing cost of the stadium until 2006. Somebody born in 1977 (the year after the Games), assuming they began paying taxes at 18 years of age, contributed for 11 years for a Games that haven't occurred in their lifetime. 

This time around it is somewhat different, and locals will get the chance to decide whether they should continue with the bid. It is interesting to note that in recent years Olso, Kraków, Lviv, Stockholm, Graz, Sapporo and Sion have all withdrawn Winter Olympic bids. Stockholm, having withdrawn from the 2020 race will also vote on a bid for 2026. Quite aptly for Calgary, Cortina has also expressed an interest in bidding, and like the Swedes and Canadians', will put the bid to a public vote.

It will be very interesting to see the outcome of next week's vote in Calgary. Should the vote pass, and the city be selected by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) as the preferred host, many things will happen. Hosting the Games will bring a sense of pride and civic engagement. Many locals will be excited in the lead up to the event, and the hosting of the Games themselves may cause the general mood to heighten further. One thing that won't happen -the taxpayer in Calgary will not make money from the event. 

By Sean O'Connor

This Sunday sees two of Ireland’s most talented teams do battle at the Aviva Stadium for the Irish Daily Mail FAI Cup. Sunday will mark the sides 4th consecutive time meeting, with Cork City currently edging on Cups collected having bested Dundalk for the last two years.

The competition has been contested 97 times since the first final was played between St. James’s Gate and Shamrock Rovers in the 1921-22 which James’s Gate won in a replay in Dalymount Park. Counting replays a total of 122 matches have been played with total goals scored of 176 (1.4 goals per game). In terms of attendance, a total of 2,314,080 individuals have attended the various games (18,968 per game). These include venues such as Dalymount Park, Tolka Park, Lansdowne Road, the RDS, Tallaght Stadium and, most recently, eight final in the revamped Aviva Stadium.

The figure below plots the attendances at these eight finals. As can be seen there was been a large fall in attendance from the 1st Final in the Aviva Stadium (2010) to the 2nd. The can be explained by the presence of Shamrock Rovers in the 2010 Final, the Dublin club's first since 2002.

Attendance from 2011 to 2017 has been relatively stable. The red line on the figure below indicated the previous three finals between Cork City and Dundalk. It’ll be interesting to see if this trend continues on Sunday.

By John Considine

Austerity in the UK is coming to an end.  At least that is what the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer told those listening to his Budget Speech.  It has probably ended in Ireland a few years ago (although you will find a few rare birds who claim there was no austerity, a few more who will claim it remains, and one or two others who will insist the term is meaningless).  If one is to judge by non-capital Exchequer expenditure on sport then the "recovery" has been in progress since about 2013.  Since 2012 non-capital sports expenditure has increased marginally as a proportion of overall non-capital expenditure.

Examining the period since 2012 also allows us to assess the period of Fine Gael led administrations.  The distribution of Exchequer sports expenditure by line item (Vote 31) is illustrated in the pie chart below.

The Exchequer expenditure on Sport Ireland accounts for just under 60% of the total for the period 2012-18.  (Broadly speaking one could add the Dormant Account Funding to this figure as this funding shows up in the accounts of Sport Ireland.)  The vast majority of expenditure on Sport Ireland is classified as non-capital.  Turning to the how Sport Ireland uses this money, we see that the biggest item of expenditure in the Sport Ireland accounts is the grants.  Effectively, the government outsources the task of managing this non-capital expenditure to Sport Ireland.  A screen shot of some of the relevant grants is provided below (these are from the latest Annual Accounts on the Sport Ireland website).

Outside of pay, the remaining items in the pie chart are capital grants administered by the Department of Transport, Tourism and Sport.  The political bias in these allocations has provided the basis for plenty of discussion in a variety of places (including on this blog, e.g. here).  By their nature, capital grants allow the decision maker greater influence.  It also opens up the opportunity for credit-claiming.  This is more difficult for non-capital grants.  As the screenshot above shows, non-capital grants are reoccurring and changes are usually incremental.  Less room for credit-claiming.

By John Eakins

The new NBA basketball season has just started with the main headline attraction being the move of LeBron James from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the LA Lakers and whether he will revive the once famed basketball franchise. While his move is likely to generate more interest and higher TV viewing figures, this hasn’t stopped the NBA experimenting with a new revenue generating streaming model.

As reported here, here and here, the NBA is giving the option to fans to stream the final quarter of any game for a nominal once off fee – reported to be $1.99 in most of the stories above. From my reading, the option only appears once the 3rd quarter buzzer sounds rather than purchasing it before the match starts. It also appears to be just a streaming option at the moment (rather than purchasing it through your TV operator) and is appealing primarily to digital users which, as some of articles state above, is a growing market for basketball fans, especially younger ones. Interestingly, the articles also suggest that NBA are also looking at some stage in the future to allow fans purchase the live stream of a match at the start of any quarter with different prices points attached. A great example of price differentiation by a monopolist if there was ever one.

It will be interesting to see whether this is successful or not. In some ways it’s a no-brainer for the NBA. The actual costs of implementing such a feature are probably small – the fact that they stream the full game already would suggest that it should be quite easy to introduce a separate final quarter streaming service. In economics talk, the marginal revenue of such a service would outweigh the marginal cost. Basketball is also a game which suits such a new revenue strategy given that it’s divided into four quarters and in most games the outcome is still up for grabs coming into the final quarter. It also appeals to the behavioural concept of instant gratification, which some of my colleagues on this blog have written about before. Why waste time watching the whole match when you can catch the shorter and potentially more important part for a cheaper price. I have to admit, when watching recorded American Football highlights (another sport that this revenue model could be applied to), I myself sometimes forward to the final quarter.

Could this model be applied to other sports? One could offer to purchase the 2nd half of football matches or rugby matches, the last 10 overs of a cricket match, the last round of a golf major, the last 2 games in a tennis set or perhaps just purchase the tiebreaker if there is one. The options would appear to be endless and given how streaming is becoming more prevalent as a means of broadcasting sports events, I wouldn’t be surprised if there were more examples of this offered in other sports in the near future. However I can’t see it replace the traditional TV viewing experience just yet. There is still something appealing in watching how a match unfolds from start to finish from the comfort of your armchair on a big television screen.

By David Butler

After a long season many League of Ireland fans deserve a pat on the back for following their club the length and breadth of the country.  In my opinion, away trips are a far different experience from attending a home match and although the chances of a loss go up, nothing seems better than a win on the road in front of a big home crowd.
​
Travelling to away games is a commitment and carries costs in terms of money and time. Some fans may think they have it harder than others so the chart below shows the total kilometres travelled by a fan who went to all away fixtures in this year’s LOI as measured from each clubs home stadium to the visiting ground. The numbers are only one-way, so in reality you can double the totals!

Unsurprisingly, the Derry City fans have to travel the farthest. To put their 5,228 kilometres in perspective, that would be about the same as leaving the Brandywell and travelling to Georgia (Tblisi is 5055km away according to Google Maps). Cork City fans have the equivalent total distance to cover as a one-way trip to Ankara, Turkey. Waterford fans have the third longest distance to travel. Their total travel over the season would equate to leaving the RSC and heading to Moscow.

One the opposite end, fans of Dublin clubs can take advantage of the fact that many rivals are on their doorstep. Rovers, Pats and Bohs have each other all nearby and have short trips to the north and south for Dundalk and Bray respectively.

In some sense it’s good that there significant travel distances – this is a sign that the spatial structure of the league is balanced. A concern for many small leagues, and something we suffered from in the past, was the emergence of a ‘tramway league’. At the moment having Derry, Sligo, Waterford, Cork and Limerick present is a good thing for the league. Perhaps all that is missing to have a strong regional-capital balance is a competitive team based in Galway.