By David Butler

​Mick McCarthy emphasised that he had no ulterior motive following the selection of Luca Connell for the upcoming Republic of Ireland internationals. Connell has already lined out for Ireland at U-17 and U-19. This is a hot topic given England’s apparent growing interest in the player and in light of the Jack Grealish-Declan Rice debacles.

International eligibility is set out on page 70 of the FIFA statutes August 2018 edition. I’m led to believe Connell qualifies for the Republic under (c). Eligibility rules are as follows:

(a) He was born on the territory of the relevant association;
(b) His biological mother or biological father was born on the territory of the relevant association;
(c) His grandmother or grandfather was born on the territory of the relevant association;
(d) He has lived continuously on the territory of the relevant association for at least two years.

In an increasingly globalised world I would bet that eligibility controversies will increase in the years ahead. Given global migration patterns there will likely be greater numbers of players with at least dual citizenship.

The design of tournaments may also incentivise 'strategic capping'. There are clear balance issues in several international tournaments. Take the European Championships for example. Low risk competitive matches against Gibraltar, Faroe Islands, Andorra, Malta, San Marino etc. offer nations a great opportunity to strategically cap young players whose allegiances are unclear. These fixtures provide bigger nations a low risk potentially high reward environment to cap a young player. 

If strategic capping does increase my bet is that it is more likely to occur for players who were not born/raised in the country they are called up to represent. There is potential for a weaker identification in such cases and this is where it may likely be seen most. 

Perhaps the rules will change going forward – maybe age limits will be required to be met for a player to be called up for a senior competitive match.  

By Robbie Butler

The most recent Central Statistics Office (CSO) examination of sport and physical activity in Ireland was carried out as part of the Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS) in 2013. The QNHS Sport and Physical Exercise provides some interesting insights into a variety of sporting and physical activity pursuits, some of which have been discussed on this blog. The survey focuses on persons aged 15 years and over who participate in sport and/or physical activity by age group and type of sport.

This is of interest to me as I am reaching the age where running around a pitch is becoming more and more difficult. Fields sports are very popular in Ireland and while the rules vary between hurling, Gaelic football, soccer and rugby, fundamentally all require participants to run around a large surface area. Fields sports are just as much about running as they are about possession of the ball, as players usually hold the ball for a very limited time in a match that could take between 70 and 90 minutes to play.

The data below demonstrates how fields sports are largely the choice of younger members of the population. Soccer, Gaelic football, hurling and camogie and rugby all report declining participation through the age categories. 

​What sports do people substitute toward as they get older?

​Swimming, cycling and particularity golf seem to be the places the older generation migrate to. Golf is at it's strongest in the 65+ category. Swimming and cycling do see a decline but only after a notable rise in participation to at least the 45-54 age category. Dance and "other" physical activities are also popular for older generations. 

By David Butler

Over the last few weeks I’ve spoken to many nervous Liverpool and Tottenham fans prior to the Champions League final. The fear of having an impressive season but ending without silverware haunts Liverpool fans, and they are particularly uneasy coming up against another Premier League club. For Tottenham fans this may be a once in a lifetime opportunity to see their club in the Champions League final. Tottenham were underdogs at so many stages in the competition – the final is no different.

While the outcome of the final is zero-sum, the levels of pain and happiness may not be. If fans are loss-averse, surely the pain of losing will be greater than the joy of winning for each set of supporters. This got me thinking about the ‘emotional’ or ‘psychological hedge’ – betting against ones preferred outcome or true preferences to mitigate emotional losses.

What value would Tottenham fans place on winning the Champion’s League? The willingness to pay for Spurs supporters to see Hugo Lloris lift the trophy would vary depending on emotional attachment to the club and identity, but how many will ask themselves this question and then stake a similar amount on Liverpool to win? At present Liverpool are 8/15 to lift the trophy – if a Spurs fan would be willing to pay, say €500, to see Spurs as champions, they could hedge and earn over €250 in the likely event that this doesn’t occur. This may ease the pain of a defeat and sooth emotions when Jordan Henderson lifts the cup.

I often wonder how prevalent this type of betting behaviour is – I wouldn’t expect it be present for regular matches where the emotional risks are relatively low, but as these increase, particularly for cup finals, the prevalence of the emotional hedge may rise.   

The emotional hedge might seem like a logical approach, but betting that your club will lose can grate against one’s identity. There are negative emotions attached to betting against ourselves, perhaps a sense of disloyalty creeps in. How many die-hard fans would like it to be known that they’ve bet against their own? Maybe the emotional hedge is a very private phenomenon?

By Robbie Butler

This week it was announced that Gigginstown Stud would wind down operations over the coming years, with a view to exiting horse racing in Ireland in the medium term. With national hunt horses as young as four years old, this could take 6-7 years to play out, assuming the plan remains the same. 

What a blow this must be to many people involved in racing throughout Ireland. The maroon and white of Gigginstown have become famous over the past decade or more, and have enjoyed incredible success both in Ireland and the UK. Probably the most notable example of this (and there are many) is Tiger Roll's back-to-back Grand National successes this year and last. It seems strange to imagine not seeing the famous colours in the years ahead.

The economic impact if this on Irish horse racing will be sizeable. A gradual exit will help soften the blow, but there are few that have put as much money into horse racing in this country in recent times. Of course, there is an upside; that of competition within races.

Quite some time ago now, John Considine addressed the issue of concentration in ownership prize money winnings. Since then anyone that watches national hunt racing in Ireland will be aware of the concentration in the sport, particularly at the elite end of the spectrum. Two trainers and a handful of owners now dominate the sport. Gigginstowns' part in this is obvious, with the owners regularly running multiple runners in Grade 1, 2 and 3 races. In recent years, the owners ran large numbers of horses in big handicap chases and were known to run into double figures in races such as the Irish Grand National. I even recall watching a grade race a couple of seasons ago with just three runners, all of whom ran in the maroon and white. 

The decision to leave will have consequences both economic and and on the sporting front. Ireland's haul at Cheltenham may not reach the same heights as recent years but domestic racing should become more competitive. Many small trainers and owners could get their day in the sun in the seasons ahead.

By Robbie Butler

Our 5th Annual Workshop is just under two weeks away. The full programme is below.

There are a limited number of places available for those that wish to attend. To register for the event click here.

By John Considine

What is driving low rate of fourth down attempts?  That is the question asked by Brian Goff and Stephen Locke in a recent edition of the Journal of Sports Economics.  The paper by Goff and Locke is appropriately titled “Revisiting Romer: Digging Deeper Into Influences on NFL Managerial Decisions”.  Romer addressed the issue in 2006.  Goff and Locke bring more data and alternative techniques to the question.  And, while the authors make a valiant attempt to answer the question, the real value of this excellent paper is to make us question the question.
 
The paper opens with a short review of previous studies that have uses sports data to evaluate decision making.  They conclude that “In the case of many, if not most, of the studies showing a departure from simple rationality or maximization principles, questions arise as to whether the departure arises because agents incorrectly process the available information or because the objective functions for agents are more complex than simple models incorporate”.
 
Then the authors proceed to start by modelling the coach/manager as a points maximizer while acknowledging that “our results align very closely with Romer’s and appear to offer and expand confirmation that NFL managers are not simple maximizers of expected points”.  However, it is difficult to get away from the implicit assumption (or maybe it is a value judgement) that the decision makers should be maximizers of expected points.  This is despite the fact that Goff and Locke draw attention to Romer’s point that the fundamental objective for coaches is to win.
 
I wonder if there is an analogy with golf.  Should players seek to minimise the distance from the ball to the hole with each shot?  Is a player that lays-up stupid or fearful?  If we implicitly assume that the player should seek to minimise the distance to the hole on each shot, and the player takes a three-wood rather than a driver on the tee, then we presume it is incorrect information processing or risk-aversion that led to the decision.
 
The Goff and Locke paper does indeed dig deeper.  It uses more of the information from each game but not all of it.  Telling the reader that neither themselves nor Romer use all the game data acts like a flashing red light.  It prompts one to wonder why that is the case.  Why would one not use the data from the last 3 minutes?  To reinforce the point, they produce estimates that suggest that a “team that trails by 7 points is 3.2% more likely to go for a fourth down” and the fourth quarter “raises the likelihood of going for it by 9.7%”.  Different people might interpret these finding differently.
 
Overall, I think  the paper suggests that “the objective functions for agents are more complex than simple models incorporate”.

By Robbie Butler

​The race for the "Top 4" in the Premier League all but ended at the weekend. I have read a number of pieces about the race for 4th, and the recent failure of Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea or Manchester United to recently perform as expected. While Arsenal could still catch Tottenham it would take a three point and 9 goal swing on the last day for this to happen.

Although none of the four are playing particularly well at present, it would be wrong to deduce that the the race for the Top 4 this season is dramatically different to recent times. The form table for the past 5 games has Spurs 13th, Man United 15th and Arsenal 16th but the total number of points accrued after 37 games is not unlike most seasons over the past decade. The figure below presents the total number of points collected by the 4th placed team since 2009/10, and the minimum number required to finish 4th (assume better goal difference). 

If 40 is the magic number to stay up (and this may have gotten even lower over recent history), 70 is generally good enough to make the Champions League. Spurs (or Arsenal) could finish 4th with 70 points. 72 (twice) and 75 points were needed in 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2016/17. Spurs are somewhat different given the number of games they have lost. 10 defeats is generally enough to rule out the Champions League. The North London club have lost 13 games but will still probably finish 4th. A single draw all season is the reason they have been able to carry such a heavy loss rate.

While the past 5 games have not seen the clubs racing for 4th at their best, their totals at the end of the season will look well in years to come. ​Whoever finishes 4th will certainly have earned the right to player in Europe's top club competition next season.

By David Butler

The UEFA U17 European Championships begins in Ireland today. The graph below shows some data on birth date distributions for last years’ competition held in England last May.

The relative age effect is alive and well for the 320 U-17 players selected to represent their countries last year.

The first chart shows the skewed birth-date distribution for the U-17 Euro 2018 competition. 48% of the players are born in the first quarter of the calendar year.  

The second chart looks at the relative age effect by playing position. The effect is prevalent in all positions.

While RAE is a robust and a well-known phenomenon some recent papers have taken some interesting angles on the subject, in particular asking whether birth date correlates with pay in sport.

There is probably academic work done on this question but I often wonder whether those born in the final quarter of the year are undervalued by the market?  If age effects dissipate at senior and professional levels (which the evidence suggest they do), maybe elite underage players born later in the year should be in demand more. It would be interesting to test whether later-born youth stars carry a premium. They've made it this far after all.

By Robbie Butler,

This summer's GAA Championship broadcasting coverage by RTÉ was recently announced. In total the free-to-air provider will screen 31 football, hurling and camogie matches from May until September (excluding possible replays), BSkyB will again screen 14 games exclusively live on subscription channel Sky Sports, and share a further six matches with RTÉ. In total, a minimum of 45 games will be broadcast live on both terrestrial and free-to-air television over the coming months.

While the volume of live games being broadcast does not compare to the Premier League (200 matches will be screened live next season), 45 fixtures on television is very big when one compares it even to the recent past of the GAA.

Before competition structure was dramatically altered in the late 1990s and early 2000s, competitions were a straight knockout. The number of games (excluding replays) was therefore N-1. Assuming 32 counties of Ireland entered both the Liam McCarthy and Sam Maguire, the maximum number of games per year was limited to 62.

The changes to competition structure have removed this limit and significantly increased broadcasting revenues that can be generated. It should be no surprise to see a round-robin format now used in the Munster Senior Hurling Championship, and in the later stages of the All-Ireland Senior Football Championship. As many international competitions such as the Premier League and NFL continue to demonstrate, the revenue achievable from broadcasting deals can mean that gate-receipts become secondary. 

With the current broadcasting agreement set to run until 2021, the status quo of 45 games per season will likely continue for the next two year. However, do not be surprised to see additional fixtures from 2021. This may mean screening earlier games in the provincial championships or further rule changes, to expand upon existing league formats and other second-chance routes. 

By David Butler

The Championship made many of the headlines over the weekend given that Norwich City and Sheffield United are due to return to the Premier League next season. An emphasis was placed on the models these clubs operate that allowed them to challenge for promotion in a very competitive league. While Norwich have recruited internationally, the Sheffield United squad is drawn solely from the UK and Republic of Ireland talent pool. Their promotion is good news for the Republic as these players may line out in the Premier League next season.

The chart below plots the average market value of each Championship squad according to their current position. These positions might change somewhat over the next few weeks. The issues with Birmingham and Bolton also alter their position. The valuation data is sourced from Transfermarkt.com.

Norwich and Sheffield United have both performed well considering the estimated value of the squad which I’m considering a proxy for expected performance. Reliable salary data is not accessible.  Norwich have an average market value of £2.04m and Sheffield United have an average market value of £1.65m. That’s the same as Reading who are currently 20th.

West Brom, Aston Villa and maybe Middlesbrough will make the playoffs. This is not entirely surprising given the average value of their squad. Stoke are a clear outlier. They are currently 16th with the highest average market value of £5.02m. Another team with a strong Irish influence, Preston North End, are overachievers. They are currently 12th with an average value of only £726k.