By John Considine

The changing circumstances of the last few months seem to have changed some of the attitutes to sports broadcasting.  It is only a couple of years ago that it seemed like the sky was falling in because SKY were coming in to broadcasting GAA games.

The national broadcaster gave plenty of airtime to those who complained bitterly about the filthy foreign money corrupting the values of our national pastimes.  Many of those complaining had financial connections to the same national broadcaster.  Some have since moved on!

The politicians got in on the act and invited the governing body in front of them to answer questions.  Some heat was generated.  No light.

Most of the outpourings related to some "pensioner" who gave sterling service to the GAA.  It was Maude Flanders' stuff - "Will somebody please think of the children".

In the coming weeks there will be plenty of pay-per-view offereings on GAA games.  There is little complaining.  Soon we will get to find out how many people will electronically transfer the viewing fee rather than hand over cash at the turnstiles.  I, for one, am delighted with this new service.

By Daragh O'Leary

There was recent delight in Dundalk (and probably the rest of the country) when the League of Ireland side, Dundalk FC, were drawn in the same Europa League group as current FA Cup champions Arsenal. The COVID-19 restrictions obviously mean no fans can attend the games but there is obviously a certain value in a League of Ireland side getting to play against some of Europe’s top players. That is something which is brilliant about the Europa League competition, it provides a stage for smaller European clubs to play against larger ones without them being completely dwarfed by the opposition.

That being said, obviously one would still have to favour Arsenal to win both games but at least Dundalk may still be able to contest in these games more so than if they had to play in the Champions League against Bayern Munich for example. This is the beauty of second tier European cup competitions, they allow teams to play and contest at a level which is suited to their ability. Which is why I’ve always been slightly annoyed at a certain aspect of the Europa League competition, teams that come in third place in the Champions League Group Stage are entered into the Europa League round of 32.
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I’ve always found it annoying that a team playing in a higher tiered competition could just get entered into a lower tier competition when the former doesn’t work out for them. Not many would deem it acceptable for example if halfway through last year’s Premier League season Norwich City were to be put into the Championship rather than the Premiership because they were performing poorly. The introduction of Champions League teams to the Europa League competition makes it much more difficult for the teams in the Europa League to advance to the later stages of the competition. This is evident when we look at the percentage of finalists in the Europa League from 2000-2020 who came from the Champions League.

​When one considers the financial awards associated with the later stages of the competition (€8,500,000 for winners and €4,500,000 for runners up) it seems that this aspect from the Europa League hinders the potential opportunities for growth which it should provide to Europe’s second tier teams. The prize money, which a lot of the time goes to Champions League losers, should allow second tier teams to pursue investment to strengthen and build their teams with the hopes of reaching the higher levels of European football they are surly aiming for. 

By David Butler

Much has been made in the media of Ireland’s new approach under Stephen Kenny. It must be remembered however the players have, to a large extent, stayed the same.

The table compares a variety of in-play measures for Kenny’s first four games to two matches toward the end of the McCarthy era and three matches at the end of Martin O’Neill reign. These are competitive games. They’re not cherry-picked. Rather, this is where data (second-hand OPTA) is available. 

By Robbie Butler,

In the summer of 2017 I was asked to contribute to the Cork City FC match day programme. With University College Cork as the main sponsors of the club it was a nice fit and a chance to engage with the wider community in Cork.

I decided to touch on the general issue of championship uncertainty and the unique place that the League of Ireland holds when it comes to competitive balance. Within the article, which appeared in the match-day programme on the 9th of July 2017, I said the following:

"Often league success has been followed by a period of gradual decline, ending in financial distress and in some cases even relegation. The cycle of champions to relegation could take less than a decade to be complete. This rarely happens in other European leagues where followers will probably know Bayern Munich have just won their fifth consecutive league title, Juventus secured a sixth Seria A title, while Celtic have also been crowned champions for the past six seasons, and finished the current campaign unbeaten."

This may now become all too true for Cork City [again]. It has not taken a decade, but rather three years. The club remains bottom of the Premier Division in Ireland, and while relegation is still very much avoidable, less than 3 years ago the club won a historic league and cup double.

How can you go from double winners to relegation candidates in less than 36 months?

​In few (of any) other European league does a team that wins the domestic double face relegation 3 years afterwards.  And it is not the first time. Why does it happen here?

I have previously explored the issue here and here. One of the figures in the links is presented again below. It demonstrates how quickly League of Ireland champions can go into a spiral of decline 1 to 4 years post winning the league. ​Cork City's decline is even more rapid.

The rate of decline is even more apparent when compared to other European league winners from 2017 - the last time Cork City were champions.

The official UEFA 2017 Roll of Honour lists the league and cup champions that year for each nation member.

Should Cork City be relegated, the League of Ireland will be the only UEFA member where the 2017 league champions are no longer in the top division of their national league. This is an ongoing problem, and on which seems to be uniquely Irish. There is a need for the entire competition structure of the League of Ireland to be changed.

​As I have said previously, the removal of promotion and relegation would be the first positive step in helping what was once infamously called "the problem child" of Irish football.

By John Considine

From the beginning, the “About” tab on this site, The Economics of Sport, says “it is an analysis of issues in sport from those with an economic perspective”.  Those words were designed to convey the space in which we were operating and to avoid debates about whether or not the material was sports economics.  The philosopher David Papineau took a similar approach: “After struggling for a while, I made a decision.  Instead of writing about one of the topics philosophers of sport are supposed to write about, I resolved to write about something that interested me.  If it didn’t count as philosophy of sport, that would be just too bad”.  Those words come from Knowing the Score: How Sport teaches us about philosophy (and philosophy about sport).
 
Reading the book was like revisiting so many posts on this site.  A few posts addressed the definition of sport.  Papineau is closer to the posts that emphasis physical activity (one of our contributors talked about changing one’s footwear).  He is somewhat critical of the approach taken by the philosopher Bernard Suits.  Suits perspective has been supported in posts on this site.  Papineau does an excellent job of discussing sports people and who they represent.  A variety of opinions and perspectives have been expressed on this site.  More may follow as one contributor, was delighted to see England win a World Cup in cricket last year, has strong views on the “Irish captaincy”.
 
One of the five sections of the book is devoted to “Rules”.  It opens with a discussion of Thierry Henry’s handball in a game against Ireland.  That topic, and subsequent events, got some coverage here.  As does Trevor Chappell’s underarm bowling.  And, the 1994 Caribbean Cup.  And, situations where one is expected to foul an opponent.  It would seems sports fans from different disciplines are drawn to the same topics and examples.
 
The first section of the book is called “Focus”.  Here Papineau strays a little into what might be formally the area of psychologists.  Plenty of us economist do likewise.  Both philosophers and economists are like kids playing ball on a neighbour's lawn.  The positioning of this material at the start of the book probably reflects a judgement call on what gets the most readers interested.

There is a coherence and depth to this book that cannot be achieved on a website.  There is also a breath of experience that can only come from a lifetime of interest in sport (I did a bibliographic web search to confirm that the author had the time for such experience).  Reading the book is like being in the company of sage relaying their life experiences and lessons.

I’m slow to follow Matthew Syed’s advice to readers “A book that every sports fan should read and every sports writer should absorb”.  It might be a useful companion for those who have dredged the depths of statistical relationships to understand sports.  As the trainers of AI machines have discovered, the data on which the machines are being trained can surface biases in our society that we want to remove.  If you want to ponder the sporting world then this book is a great place to start.  I wish I had read it when it was published three years ago.

By David Butler

Last weekend saw ALOT of goals go in and with it a good start for the penalty taker strategy. Several penalty takers scored outside of the normal penalty scenario.

In terms of penalties, Jorginho and Bruno Fernandes both stepped up at odds of 7/2 and 15/8 anytime goal scorers. Outside of these two, many other penalty takers scored in-play such as Kane, Maupay and Wilson.

So far, a profit of €11.74

By David Butler

Considering the current application of the handball rule in the Premier League, I will track the returns to ‘anytime goals’ for the primary set-piece takers for each club over the forthcoming weeks. This is in the tradition of various entries on this blog over the years that have looked at ‘beating the bookies’ using systematic decision-rules. 

My motivation is the sharp increase in the number of penalties being awarded. In the EPL 2019-20 season there was 92 penalties awarded, 19 of which were for handball. Out of 28 games so far this season there has been 20 penalties awarded, 6 of which were handballs.

Sky Sports forecast that, at the current rate of penalty awards, there would be 292 given by the end of the season – surely this is good news for set-piece takers? To put that number in perspective, over the past five seasons the highest annual count of penalties was in the 2016-17 season at 106. On average over the last five seasons 94 penalties have been awarded - 3 gameweeks in, we're a fifth of the way there. 

So, is there money to be made from the increase in penalties awarded in the EPL or has the market incorporated the information already? Lets find out.   

I’m taking the first penalty taker as defined by the Premier League fantasy football game for the twenty clubs and the odds from a well-known bookmaker. I’ll also control for any injuries i.e. Richarlison is likely to miss out this weekend for Everton due to injury.

It will be a €1 stake on each penalty taker and a €20 weekly bet in total. Of course, these players could return outside of penalties too. For the forthcoming week the betting odds probabilities range from 4/5 (Aubameyang anytime goal scorer) to 13/1 (Norwood anytime goal scorer).
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All of this is assuming continuity in the application of the current rule going forward. The cynic in me thinks a better bet would be that words (in private) will be had with referees’ to ease up. Shame there’s not a price for that, it would probably be odds on if Sky's projections are correct! 

By Robbie Butler & Ed Valentine

"It's an absolute disgrace. An absolute joke." These were the words of Sky Sports pundit Jamie Carragher following the awarding of a penalty to Newcastle United against Tottenham on Sunday when Eric Dier had the ball headed off his arm, while looking the other way. 

It is hard to disagree with Carragher. The new interpretation of handball by Premier League referees and VAR is a joke. In fact, it is quite incredible (to us at least) how often the ball seems to strike the arm of a player in the lead up to a goal or penalty. Before the introduction of VAR almost everyone had a fair idea of what was handball and what was not.

​Prior to the introduction of VAR it was assumed that the technology could deal with the likes of Diego Maradona and Thierry Henry - instances where the hand is deliberately used to control ball. I also assumed we might see VAR used 5-6 times per season. "Oh did you hear VAR was used in the game between...",  just like Goal Line Technology. Instead VAR is eating the game. In the search for consistency with handballs, the unintended consequence has been the awarding of almost anything when the ball hits the arm - deliberate or not. 

Some handballs are clear cut - like the two mentioned above - others are not. This is why there is a referee. To make those calls. People will disagree. So be it. Football had survived (and thrived) for 150 years this way.

​If the rules continues as they currently are, another unintended consequence will be countless penalties in each game. The data below (supplied by Opta) can illustrate this. 

It is projected that the overall number of penalties could reach nearly 300 this season if this continues. That is not far off one per game. Penalties will become the norm - rather than the exception they once were - if this continues and handball will probably be the source of many of these.

By Robbie Butler

In May 2019 Irish national radio station Today FM broadcast its final episode of Premier League Live. The radio station had provided live coverage of a Saturday 3pm kick-off to radio listeners, and no doubt countless others online, for 21 consecutive seasons. I must admit, despite often listening to the show on the radio, I did not become aware of the decision to end the broadcast until the start of the 2019-20 season. 

I was both disappointed and surprised that the show had come to an end. For me, it was something that I habitually listened to on Saturday's and acted as a reference point in both my week and calendar year. As I reflected on the ending of the show in the weeks ahead, my surprise at the decision declined, but my disappointment remained. However, the game has changed over the past 21 years and the decision to end Premier League Live probably reflected this - and all of this before Covid-19. 

When I think of my consumption of the show it primarily occurred while I was in a car. I wonder how many others were in the same position? If I didn't happen to drive on Saturday afternoon, I probably didn't listen. 

A second issue must have been the television schedule that has become more and more important in recent seasons. The 3pm Saturday kick-off is now the home of many of the lesser games during the season. The 'big' fixtures generally take place at lunchtimes on Saturdays, on Sunday afternoons or Monday evenings. I wonder how much demand for listening was impacted by the games taking place.

The arrival of a 3pm game on television - the blackout does not apply in Ireland - was no doubt another blow to the radio show. Sometimes the game on TV was the same as that broadcast on radio. Of course, the televised game was behind the paywall, but could be viewed in most pubs.

And one has to wonder if the show would have survived this season, had it not been cancelled. The continuation of football behind closed doors means almost every game has a different kick-off time. Every game is broadcast on television, making the radio an inferior good. Well for most anyway.

With television today effectively having a match on numerous times a day, every day of the week, radio broadcasts may soon be a thing of the past entirely. 

By John Considine

A recent article in the Journal of Economic Psychology examines the statistical characteristics of successful breakaways in professional cycling.  In addition to a statistical analysis, "Friends for (almost) a day" also provides a strategic framework for explaining successful breakaways.  Before turning to the results from the paper, it is worth examining last Friday's stage in the Tour de France.  It will give an idea of the size of the task undertaken by the authors.

Last Friday was the remaining realistic chance that Peter Sagan had to take back the Green Jersey from Sam Bennett.  I say "take back" because Sagan virtually owns the jersey.  Since 2012 he has won the jersey every year except for 2017 when he was disqualified for causing a crash.  The race organisers also had a hand in the 2020 outcome.  While the evidence in this year's race suggests Sagan's speed is not what it was, it is worth remembering that the gap coming into Stage 19 on Friday was almost fully made up of Sagan's relegation from the points in Stage 11 (for bumping).

A thumbnail sketch of some of the key points from Friday's stage illustrate the complexity.  Almost from the start, one of Bennett's teammates, Remi Cavanga, went on a breakaway.  The commentators speculated that he hoped to get others to follow so as to minimise the points available to Bennett's rivals in the peloton.  Nobody went with Cavanga.  The commentators expressed surprise at his decision to press on alone for three reasons.  First, he was unlikely to make it all the way to the finish alone.  Second, he was depriving Bennett of help in the peloton.  Third, Cavanga was a potential winner of the following day's time trial (although some thought he might be practicing for it).

After a couple of hours, three other riders set off to bridge the gap to Cavanga.  They did not catch him until he had secured the maximum points on the intermediate sprint.  However, they did collect the points available for second, third and fourth.  Bennett got fifth and Sagan sixth as the sprinters broke from the peloton to contest the remaining points.  Then things started to get messy as small groups attempted breakaways.  Soon the four leaders were caught and the attacks continued.  Then, a group containing Bennett and Sagan broke away with 25km to go.  At this stage, Bennett was contributing to the breakaway as much as Sagan.  The commentators explained that while Bennett knows that the remainder of the breakaway group will try to dump him before the end, the commentators also suggested that he will be attacked more relentlessly if he does not contribute.  Initially it seems that the peloton gives chase.  But then they stop.  The winner will now come from the breakaway.  The unity of the effort to breakaway is now diminished.  The coalition starts to fragment.

At this stage Bennett decides to track Sagan.  He knows he can beat him in a sprint finish.  So he sits on Sagan's rear wheel.  Sagan's body language towards Bennett suggests he is not impressed with this tactic.  Another rider takes advantage of the breakup of the coalition to launch a successful counterattack.  He escapes.  Others follow suit but are now only battling for the minor places.  Bennett stays with Sagan.  Bennett finishes 8th and Sagan 9th.  The green jersey is almost secured by Bennett.  He proved himself a worth successor to Sagan.

"Friends for (almost) a day" attempts to put some structure on our thinking about such complex and dynamic situations.  It is not easy.  For example, it needs to define what constituted a breakaway.  It decided that a breakaway would need to be away from the peloton for 30km.  On Friday, Cavanga was away for more than 30km but the break that happened with 25km to go would not be classified as a breakaway.  The authors acknowldge the somewhat abitrary nature of their definition.  There is also a problem with the authors' attempt to explain the failure in terms of the public good free-rider.  Cavanga's breakaway failed but as he was alone it would be difficult to explain the failure in terms of free-riding.  Despite these limitation, the paper does provide statistical support for the economic theory on group sizes.  Initially, as the group size increases then the chances of success increases.  The effort to breakaway can be reduced by being shared.  However, as group size increases then this impact declines and turns negative.

The paper also shows that breakaways are likely to stay away on hilly or mountain stages compared to flat stages.  Maybe the authors will examine the potential reasons for this in the future research they promise.

When it comes to empirically evaluating strategic decisions using sports data, it would be fair to say that economists have zoned in on the penalty kick in soccer.  It is neater than most strategic situations.  Even here researchers simplify  by giving the kicker and keeper only two options.  By contrast, the authors of "Friends for (almost) a day" have attempted to quantity and explain a richer strategic setting.  And, despite the difficulties, they've done a pretty good job of it.