By Robbie Butler

We are in beautiful South-West Kerry this afternoon and will bring our second sports economics event on to the Ring of Kerry at Caherviceen Library.

Among other things, the town is famous for being the birthplace of Irish political heavyweight Daniel O'Connell. O'Connell was the preeminent force in Irish politics during  the first half of the 19th century, campaigning for Catholic emancipation and a repeal of the Acts of Union which combined Great Britain and Ireland. In 1829 he achieved Catholic emancipation in Ireland and is today often referred to as simply The Liberator or The Emancipator. 

Fittingly, our event today has a uniquely Irish theme and considers economic, social and sporting issues in Gaelic Games. Throw-in is at 4.30pm and all are welcome. The full programme is below.

By Ed Valentine

Close to 2pm every Saturday the football media rises to a chorus of pings generated by the landing of team sheets from the ether into the virtual timelines of the web. It’s generally followed by commentary on who’s in and who’s on the bench for the afternoon’s games with individual “big name” players who miss out on starting which generates the pre-match waffle. Very little attention is given however to the overall collective team selections over the course of the season. Below data is presented to give some insight on current trends in the Premier League 2019/20.
 
One team selection which did gain much criticism was Liverpool’s starting xi for the FA Cup replay against Shrewsbury Town. Despite The Red’s virtually unbridgeable points gap, Jurgen Klopp decided to take advantage of the winter break by fielding a team with the average age of 19yrs 102 days. This selection, in terms of age, is a clear outlier in terms of topflight men’s senior professional football. But by how much?
 
Analysis of season so far numbers shows the average age of Premier League starting xi is decreasing. Though this season’s figure has not surpassed the all-time low set in 2008/09, fans have seen 5 teams with line ups averaging 25yrs or less, an unprecedented event in the Premier League.

 There is no correlation between age of players on the pitch and more favourable numbers for shots, possession, distance run or any other key metrics. Younger players in midfield and defence generally have more positive possession turn overs (winning the ball back) than older players but the difference is not significant. What could be driving managers to select players of lower age is the speed of the game, distance covered per game and the ability of younger players to recover quickly from multiple matches per week.

​Perhaps Ed Woodward has swapped sabermetrics for age-metrics given that Ole Solskjaer’s team selections this season have been the youngest in the league and occupy 5 of the 10 youngest starting XI’s in the EPL. Watford, at the opposite end of the table, are pushing 30.  At 36 years old Ben Foster must feel like the designated driver of the Premier League.  Perhaps the Hornet’s team selection is based on who owns the most Elton John LPs in their record collection.

By David Butler

The League of Ireland restarts tonight with the first four fixtures of the 2020 season kicking-off between 7.45pm and 8.00pm. Wolves and Leicester will battle it out for the Champions League places in the Premier League from 8.00pm also. This will be broadcast on BT Sports (a premium subscription channel in Ireland and the UK).

Competing against the Premier League, albeit a relatively rare event now given our February to October calendar, is often suggested as a reason why League of Ireland attendances may stagnate.

The argument goes that high-quality football on television changes the opportunity costs for fans. They could be disincentivised from supporting a local team when a high-quality substitute exists on TV.

I’ll leave the morals of what football supporters ought to do to the fans who penned and sing the lyrics to the chant that makes up this entry's title. The empirical question however - whether conflicting Premier League matches on TV impact League of Ireland attendance? - is something I can offer some insight on. 

Research that Robbie Butler, Ewan Mullane and I are currently working on would suggest that there is no relationship between Premier League broadcasts and League of Ireland turnouts. Looking at attendance data from the 2018 and 2019 League of Ireland season, we find no statistical relationship between turnout and whether a match clashes with a Premier League broadcast (controlling for a range of other factors).  

Although we don’t compete with Premier League broadcasts very often, the evidence suggests that when we do, this doesn’t statistically impact the turnout here. There is two ways of looking at this. First, you could say this is good news – Irish clubs don’t have to worry about competing with televised Premier League matches.

On the other hand, televised Premier League not acting as a substitute may point to the fact that fans do not see the two types of football as interchangeable.  Maybe this is the worrying implication. At least if these Premier League broadcasts were taking fans away from the turnstiles, the league could behave strategically, altering scheduling or running promotions. I think the task of convincing consumers that both ‘products’ are substitutes is the challenging task.  At present the quality differential between the Premier League and the League of Ireland means that this may not enter the consumers mind.

By Robbie Butler

The 6th annual workshop on sport and economics will take place on Friday 22nd of May 2020 at University College Cork.

The event will have a dedicated session on sports broadcasting. The full schedule will appear in early April.

This event is funded by Cork University Business School and the College of Business and Law at University College Cork.

By Robbie Butler,

When teaching undergraduate students’ introductory economics, I speak about different market structures at an early point. The classification of these, from perfect competition at one extreme to monopoly at the other, is aided by using examples. Sport can help here. There are many examples of sports operating as “monopolies”. For example, The International Olympic Committee has a monopoly right on the sale of the Summer and Winter Olympic Games. They use this power to maximise their position with would-be-host cities.

The Major League Baseball has an effective monopoly of professional baseball in the United States. It administers the 15 teams in the National League (NL) and 15 in the American League (AL). MLB also oversees Minor League Baseball, which comprises 256 teams affiliated with the major league clubs. The owners of these franchises often operate as a monopsony - a market situation in which there is only one buyer – and use their power to maximise their welfare.

The next step from monopoly is a duopoly - a situation in which two suppliers dominate the market for a commodity or service. Golf can provide a nice illustration of this. While not a perfect representation of an industry with just 2 suppliers, the PGA Tour based in the United States and PGA European Tour are an effective duopoly. There are other professional tours (the Japan Golf Tour or the Southern Africa–based Sunshine Tour) but few can compete in money terms with the US or Europe. For example, the top golfer in Japan would rank about 40th in European Tour money standing. The leading US player earns about 3 times are much as those in Europe.

The power of the PGA Tour and European Tour has worked well for decades. However, change may be afoot with recent talk of the Premier Golf League. This would involve the worlds best players in the US and Europe, creating their own tour of about 48 players, and playing weekly competitions over 54 rather than 72 holes. Leading players have suggested that they do not play each other outside of the 4 Majors and the Player’s Championship (5 events in total) and that there is demand for more frequent battles between the world’s best.

Both current tours could not be impressed. This is not dissimilar to a decision by 22 English Football Clubs in the early 1990s who decided to break away from an administrator founded in 1888. The English Premier League was born, and the rest is history.

It may be that case that the duopoly of golf is coming to an end. If the Premier Golf League is successful the supply of professional golf will not be the same again.

David Butler

Before Christmas and back last April I wrote about the Sheffield United story. Chris Wilder’s approach has been to largely source talent from the UK and Republic of Ireland talent pool. The signing of Sander Berge recently was a rare departure from their past strategy. Of course, budget limitations may have been the source of this strategy and with the Blades having virtually secured their Premier League position for next year, the purse strings may have been loosened.

After yesterdays win Sheffield United are two points off the top 4 with an extra fixture played.  Wilder’s side are going closer to  'doing a ‘Moneyball', right’? 

The chart below shows the relationship between total points and average annual salary by club. This is sourced from talksport via a sport intelligence survey (take from it what you will)

Sheffield United have the lowest average player salary in the league (£728,000). To stick to the Moneyball rhetoric, they appear to be “buying wins at a discount”.  

By John Considine

On Saturday, a proportion of the population of Ireland will cast their votes in an effort to determine the next government.  The public funding of sport is unlikely to be a deciding factor in the minds of the voters.  Are voters swayed by the promise of sports funding?  Do voters reward politicians who deliver sports funding?  A previous minister with responsibility for sport asked the same question after the 2016 election.  The Mayo News reported his comments as follows.
     "When you look at some of the places I allocated money lately - like in Aughleam where I gave half a million euros for a hall, I got beaten two-to-one there [Ring got 91 votes while Sinn Fein's Rose Conway-Walsh got 191 votes].  In Mulranny, very substantial funding was provided to revitalise the whole area, and I got 42 votes [Jerry Cowley got 15 votes], so you have to wonder, do the people want delivery?  I don't know," stated Minister Ring.

It could be a case of 'eaten bread is soon forgotten'.

Earlier this week, the public funding of sport did make some headlines, e.g. an excellent piece by Kieran Shannon can be accessed here.  The Board of Basketball Ireland issued a statement outlining how they believe their sport was treated unequally when compared with the recent treatment of the Football Association of Ireland.  Towards the end of their two-page statement they draw attention to some of the benefits of basketball.  They could have added that the Economic and Social Research Institute found a statistically significant relationship between academic results and basketball (as illustrated in the extract opposite from Keeping Them in the Game and as explained in a previous blog post).  Hockey and Hurling are the other two sports showing statistical significance with academic results (look for the ** in the table).

It might be stretching things to say that basketball delivered for government, just as Michael Ring delivered for Mayo.  Basketball Ireland might wonder why the government seems to impose greater penalties on their sport.

When it comes to sports funding and the election, the prize for the most striking billboard goes to one seeking to reduce the public funding of the Greyhound Industry (the top half of the image on the left).  This funding has come under sustained attack since the National Broadcaster aired a Prime Time Investigates episode devoted to the industry (it can be viewed here).  The billboard explicitly seeks the removal of funding.  It is difficult to tell whether it will have an electoral impact.
​
​In my opinion, it is the repeated use of the funding as a benchmark that is likely to have a longer-term impact.  For example, a couple of months ago in the Dail (Parliament), a comparison was made between the public funding of the greyhound industry and the funding provided for the victims of sexual violence.  Ruth Coppinger said "Your government gave 25 million to the entire support sector, yet you saw fit to give 17 million to a cruel and ailing greyhound industry".  The outgoing Taoiseach (Prime Minister) responded by highlighting the increase in funding for victims of sexual violence.  He could only limit the damage done by the comparison.  Regardless of the outcome of the election, some incoming Ministers will find themselves explaining funding in the context of the money going to the greyhound industry.  These comparisons, rather Saturday's vote, are likely to have a bigger impact.

By Seán Ó Conaill

Although there have been no significant new developments or changes to the FIFA Regulations on the Status and Transfer of Players since the Brexit Referendum as exit date finally arrives the penny is beginning to drop for British clubs that their world is about to change in a very significant way. By virtue of leaving the European Union British football clubs will no longer be subject to a number of specific EU rules concerning the status and transfer of players.
The genesis for the current issues can be traced back to what is probably the most famous EU decision of them all – the Bosman case. In Bosman is was clearly enshrined that within the European Union footballers from EU member states (and a number of EEA States) were workers and could not be subject to any nationality restrictions. The decision produced a seismic shock in the football transfer world. For several years FIFA, UEFA and the EU grappled with how you could reconcile the rights of footballers as workers with the goals of protecting the integrity of the game, contributing to sustainable development and protecting the grassroots of the game. Eventually after protracted discussions a special compromise was reached. FIFA would bring forward Regulations on the Status and Transfer of Players which would apply globally however the Regulations would also contain a special subset of amended regulations which apply to transfers within the EU and EEA. 

Effectively you have two different systems in operation. Outside the EU minors cannot transfer internationally however within the EU players aged between 16-18 can transfer subject to a number of conditions being met concerning education, training, living standards and the appointment of a mentor. Furthermore, different rules apply on how training football clubs are compensated when a young player moves within the EU compared to when a player moves in another jurisdiction. Professional clubs within the EU also have an additional burden of conditions to meet if they want to secure compensation when a player under 23 leaves at the end of his contract in addition to lower levels of compensation being payable. Within the EU rules on a limit on the number of non-national players are strictly prohibited but are allowable in other jurisdictions.

Leaving aside the incredibly complex situation of Derry City FC which is an outlier subject to a number of exceptions, Irish clubs at all levels are about to have a very significant change to how they deal with clubs from the jurisdiction of the United Kingdom. Traditionally a culture of children as young as 14 being “sent over” to clubs in the UK to pursue football apprenticeships existed. British clubs had extensive scouting networks and identified talented players a young age leading to the players being made an offer at a young age. While this system produced some of the most famous Irish stars of generations past it should be noted for every Damien Duff and Robbie Keane there were 98 other young boys who were sent home, having had an exceptionally poor token level of education and told that they were not good enough. The training clubs often received very little, if anything by way of compensation.

In more recent times with the shift in the regulations precipitated by the post Bosman regulations thankfully elements of this practice have ceased. Instead players have signed with British clubs from the age of 16 upwards with the requirements for education provision being in place. Anecdotally the level of education actually provided is extremely poor. The Professional Football Association of Ireland for example commit a great deal of time, resources and guidance into helping footballers re-engage with education when they return from England and sign with League of Ireland Clubs. Many individual clubs also have relationships with 3rd level institutions which facilitate education for players in Ireland with my own employer University College Cork perhaps being the most prominent example via their multi-level collaboration with Cork City FC.

In theory a more structured system of training compensation to reward the grassroots and senior clubs involved in training the player is in place however this is more often ignored and waved aside by British Clubs rather than honoured. Various estimates of compliance suggesting figures of between 3% and 8% of the training compensation due being actually paid by the new clubs acquiring the young players from their training clubs. A standard play of agents is to make it clear that the foreign club interested in the next young star are only interested if there is no training compensation payable and if the training club looks for their entitlement under FIFA Regulations they will be ‘standing in the way’ of the players development and their big shot. One infamous agent for example when attempting to secure the signing of a promising young player who has gone on to have an excellent career at a high level in the professional game in England and internationally told a training club that they were only signing the young star as a ‘favour’, that the player would never actually make it and accordingly they would not even consider paying any compensation (the English club eventually did pay up after the training club told them where to go). Other agents threaten ‘bridge transfers’ whereby a player is transferred domestically to a professional club which removes the grassroots clubs’ rights to training compensation and then quickly sold on internationally – a practice which the FAI have tried to stop and once which FIFA is about to expressly prohibit.

All this however is about the change utterly. The UK leaving the EU means the transfer of players under 18 will cease. In what is perhaps a telling insight into the entire Brexit Project – the penny only seems to be dropping now what the consequence of this will mean for British clubs. No more will the likes of Cesc Fabregas be able to join a British academy at such a young age and when British clubs do look to sign players once they are old enough to do so the compensation they are, notionally at least, expected to pay will increase significantly. Although during the transition period footballers from the EU will continue to be able to work in the United Kingdom the situation for footballers after Brexit is likely to change. Irish footballers will also find themselves in a somewhat unique position. Ireland and the United Kingdom enjoy a Common Travel Area and workers have free movement within that travel area. An ordinary Irish worker can move freely and take up employment in the UK both as an EU citizen and by virtue of the Common Travel Area. At the end of the Brexit transition period EU workers, including footballers, will likely require a visa to work in the United Kingdom and quotas could be put on the number of players per team (similar to the old ‘3 Foreigners’ rule). Post Brexit Irish workers will still enjoy the right to work in the United Kingdom by virtue of the Common Travel Area however the situation for young Irish footballers is a little more complex.

Come 1 January 2021 young Irish footballers in theory will have the right to work in the United Kingdom their ability to do so will be hindered by the operation of the FIFA Regulations. On the one hand the law of the land will say that they can in in the UK the FIFA Regulations, however, will prohibit the players ages between 16 and 18 from being registered with any club. FIFA has announced that they will not change the regulations but that they will interpret them in such a way during the Brexit transition period to allow FIFA to look upon the UK as an EU/EEA member thus allowing British clubs one further transfer window. The door will firmly shut come the end of the year and without a change to the regulations British Clubs will be locked out of signing young players from abroad.
​
The implications and opportunities for Irish football are profound. Irish players had already started to struggle to gain a foothold at English clubs given what had been the increased international reach of English clubs in recruitment terms. More than ever the FAI must ensure that the best young Irish players are given an opportunity to develop at home because the traditional destination will be closed off to them. The change in development profile of the Republic of Ireland nation team over the last 10 years has been extraordinary with more players than ever before having League of Ireland in their development background. The recent development and success of the underage national leagues, although not without their critics, is just one small step but if the Irish National team is to have a future the FAI and other stakeholders must create an environment where the best players can develop without relying on someone else to do the graft. Never before has Irish football been handed such an opportunity.
 
Dr Seán Ó Conaill is the Director of the Centre for Sports Economics and Law at UCC, a Lecturer in Sports Law at the School of Law and a new FAI Council Member

By David Butler

After super Sunday, Graeme Souness was quick to point out that Manchester City are so effective at turning possession in to goals, and subsequently points. 

I've posted a few weeks back on how Manchester United, oppositely, have struggled when in possession. The chart below plots the relationship between Premier League clubs average possession rate this season and their total points (R² = 0.38). 

Liverpool have really been able to convert their high possession into points, Man City have not been able to replicate Liverpool's conversion rate.

Oppositely Newcastle's strategy has been successful - they don''t have the ball much but have still grinded out results. Norwich have seen plenty of the ball been haven't been able to convert this into more points. 
​

By Ed Valentine,

​Drivetrain, half shaft, launch control, track rod. The escalating terminology of DNFs in Formula One demonstrates how complex and technological racing has become. Cars do not suffer an “engine problem” anymore but instead have “energy recovery system – kinetic” issues. As the machinery becomes more complex and modern the dictionary of driving excuses will continue to grow.
 
Despite the trickle-down effect of race car technology filtering onto the road there is limited research in the area of Grand Prix attrition rates. With the boom in technology and driver aides since the turn of the millennium this seemed a good opportunity to investigate the primary causes of driver DNFs in F1 over the past 20 season.
 
Data presented below in the first figure has been analysed from every round of the F1 World Championship from 2000 – 2019 and charted with the top 4 causes of attrition in those events. The rate of DNFs has also been examined to determine if technological progress includes increased reliability. 

The bar chart shows that by far the prevailing cause of a DNF is driver error. Across the entire analysis over 35% of failures to finish result from driver crashes, spins or collisions. The number was decreasing however as gadgetry meant the cars became easier to drive but with the addition of more street style circuits where cars run at a cigarette paper’s width from the barriers this number is now on the rise. It could be argued that drivers are suffering from what behavioural economist call the Peltzman effect whereby the more safety systems that are in place the more risks they take. In some respects, the technology has outgrown the skill of the driver. It should be noted that there are 4 more races per season now than in 2000. This is reflected in the next figure

There is spike in engine/ power unit issues from 2014 – this is resulting from the new power unit technology brought about by a rule change. The rule aimed to cut costs and make engines greener. While they achieved the latter teams have lost prize money and sponsorship revenue by parking up before the race ends.

The second figure considers failure rates within races. The overall rate of retirements has dropped since 2000 with the figure being about 30% of where was 20 years ago. Cars are about 8-10 seconds faster per lap now than they were back then which underlines the increase in driver aides, the raised standard of driving and the durability of the technology at play. 2019 saw a race where all drivers reached the chequered flag, a rare event in the sport.

​A Formula One car typically has 80,000 component parts. If everything is 99.9% in working order that’s 80 parts that are not. With billions of dollars spent on incremental .001 second eye-blink gear change improvements it would be worth ensuring the most expensive component in the machine, the driver, can keep the car on the road. Otherwise the teams’ accountants will have a lot of insurance claims to look forward to.