By Robbie Butler

For those that watch the League of Ireland, it seems apparent (to me anyway) that competitive balance in the league has shifted in the past number of seasons.

On the 4th of November 2018 Cork City and Dundalk will meet for the 4th successive year in the FAI Cup Final. The meeting of the same two teams, four years in a row, has never happened in the FA Cup or Scottish Cup. This is also true of the Copa Del Rey and many other cups across Europe I have checked. 

Given the dynamics of a knock-out competition, and the probability of drawing a team at any stage, it is quite remarkable that Cork and Dundalk meet again. It is all the more remarkable that the last 3 meetings ended tied at the end of normal time, meaning neither has been beaten over 90 minutes in the FAI Cup since late summer 2014! This year's league table gives us further insight to the dominance of these two clubs, and how Dundalk's achievement in regaining the league title is somewhat of an outlier in recent years.

Since 2009 (ten full seasons) six clubs have been crowned champions of Ireland; Bohemians (2009), Shamrock Rovers (2010 and 2011); Sligo Rovers (2012); St Patrick's Athletic (2013) Dundalk (2014, 2015, 2016 and 2018) and Cork City (2017).

The charts below demonstrate how Dundalk and Cork have solidified their positions in recent years. 

It has taken Dundalk just one season to regain the league title. It remains to be seen if Cork City can do the same next year, but if they can it will be further evidence of a "Big 2" in Ireland. For the first time in the history of the League of Ireland, which commenced in 1921, the same two teams finished first and second (in any order) five years in a row. The previous record stood at three. 

​This is important in the context of what comes next. The other four winners of the League since 2009 have failed to regain their title. This is not unusual and I have previously addressed the issue here.

The graphic above presents league position for Bohemians, Shamrock Rovers, Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athletic from the season before winning the title to four years after. Following on from winning the League, all four then start a gradual slide. In the case of Bohs and St Pat's, this meant battling with relegation not long after winning the league.

What Dundalk and, to a lesser extent, Cork City are doing is not what we have been used to in recent years. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues. While such dominance will not be welcomed by fans of other clubs, it is in the interest of the league generally, in terms of improving UEFA coefficients and European club competition progression. 

The upcoming FAI Cup Final will be required viewing. If extra time is needed, both Dundalk and Cork will go close to 5 years without losing a FAI Cup game in normal time. I wonder has any other country ever had this experience? 

By David Butler
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As the League of Ireland is coming to a conclusion there have been recent posts on topics such as attendance figures and play-off records.   

For international readers of this blog it may seem unusual that our league is concluding. The League of Ireland, unlike many European Leagues, adopts a February-October schedule. This is colloquially known as ‘summer soccer’. The league switched from an August-May schedule in 2003. We’re not the only UEFA country with this domestic league structure; other countries, many of which have harsher climates than Ireland, also adopt a February/March-October/November schedule. Examples include Estonia, Finland, Georgia, Latvia and Lithuania.

The motivations for the February-October schedule were partly strategic (Irish teams would be mid-season when competing in European competitions) and also to increase the attractiveness of the product. Playing mostly through the summer months allows for improved playing conditions, perhaps bringing with it more attractive football and larger attendances.

Below is an attempt to visualise ‘summer soccer’. The charts show the recorded temperature and sunsets for each match this season at the location where it was played. The average temperature for a League of Ireland match this season was 9.66°C (median, 9°C). For me, this is hardly balmy weather and might be even slightly higher than previous years as we had a warm summer. Several of the earliest fixtures are played before the clocks go forward in March, hence the jump in the sunset data.

These data lend to the view that the use of the term ‘summer soccer’ is misplaced – if anything there colloquialism should be ‘winter-summer-winter soccer’ given the Irish climate. Somehow I don’t think it will catch on!

By Daragh O'Leary

Competition design is an essential element of sport. The structure of these competition dictate the outcomes that are achieved. Organisers of events should be interested in designing competitions that are fairest to all those competing. 

One positive attribute of the league system is that it’s a very fair type of competition to judge which teams are the strongest. It’s a test of a team’s ability and endurance over a long period of time where every team plays each other twice (home and away). With this in mind you can say that the team which finishes 1st is probably the overall strongest in the league, the team in 2nd is probably the next strongest in the league, and so on. So it makes sense that if three teams from a league are going to be promoted to a higher division that those three teams should be the three strongest in that league. 

With this in mind, I turn to the Championship Playoffs in the second tier of English football. As most know, the step up from Championship to the Premier League is no easy task for any club. In fact John Eakins found that on average at least 1 of the promoted teams are relegated from the premiership the following season (see here).

While the step up is big for all promoted clubs, it is probably tougher for the club which gains promotion via the Championship Playoffs. For any reader who is unsure how the Championship promotion system works, the teams which finish in 1st and 2nd gain automatic promotion to the Premier League the next season, and the teams that finish in 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th place compete in a knockout competition for the third available promotion spot. 9 times in the last 20 years has a team which gained promotion via the playoffs managed to avoid relegation from the Premier League the following season. And there’s a good reason for this too. They’re usually a much weaker side than the other two promoted teams.

This system might seem a little unfair considering that at the end of last season there was thirteen points between 3rd place Fulham and 6th place Derby County. Yet both teams are equally eligible for promotion to a higher division the following season. Fulham did go on to win the playoffs that year but usually the 3rd place teams are not so lucky. Only 38% of the time in the past twenty years has the 3rd place team managed to gain promotion.

This appears even more unfair when you consider that the teams which win the playoffs and finish in 3rd place perform better in the Premier League the following season than teams who win the playoffs and finish below 3rd place. As can be seen in the table to the right, only 37.5% of teams in the last 20 years which win the playoffs and finish 3rd are relegated, whereas teams which win and finish in lower league positions all get relegated more frequently the next season.

With this in mind, does it not seem fairer that the top three teams from the Championship should be promoted? Particularly when you consider that the financial rewards gained from competing in the Premier League are far greater than those gained from competing in the Championship, and that being the next season puts serious financial pressure on a club. Of course, the Championship playoffs make for great entertainment, but should promotion spots to a higher league not be given out on a “best team for the job” basis?

By Robbie Butler

There was a time when buying your favourite club's home shirt was somewhat of an investment. One could be confident that their team would wear the shirt with pride in the seasons that followed. Crest and sponsorship deals were largely unaltered from season-to-season. Fans could even wear the jersey once it had been replaced by another, usually with minor alterations, and only those with a keen eye could spot the difference.

Not so anymore. In fact, the only thing that seems to change faster than managers in the Premier League today, are the kits players wears.

The data below presents information on 37 clubs that have played in the Premier League since 2009/10 and the number of kits launched during that time. Obviously, this is an overall figure so naturally teams that have never been relegated are much higher on the scale.

In total, 587 seperate kits have been launched in the past ten seasons. The "big 6" of Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United, Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspurs are responsible for just over 200 of these, roughly 35%. Spurs (41) are the only club to break the 40-kit barrier. This can be largely explained by differing sponsorship deals in the Premier League and Champions League in seasons past. 

On average, clubs that have played in the Premier League for at least four of the past ten seasons, have produced 2.8 kits per season. This data is present below.

Again, Tottenham lead and are followed by Newcastle United. Whilst Tottenham's jersey's differed at times due to sponsor changes, Newcastle actually launched four different jerseys during the 2013 – 2014 and 2014 – 2015 seasons. This had been done just once before (Everton 2008-2009). 

It seems the football jersey is not the investment it once was. As they say, caveat emptor.

By Robbie Butler

In Semester 1 of the 2016/17 academic year I started teaching a module "The Economics of Sport" for the first time at UCC. This elective module (for 3rd year students) explores aspects of economics through the lens of sport. Participants are introduced to economics concepts such as industry analysis, competition, public finance and labour markets using examples and data from the professional sports industry. 

The structure of the module has altered a slightly since the first deliver and this year students covering the following six sections:

• Section 1 – Introduction to the economics of sport;
• Section 2 – Competition design and rule changes; 
• Section 3 – Demand and profit maximisation;
• Section 4 – Labour market issues and imperfections;
• Section 5 – Economic impact and mega-events;
• Section 6 – Sports broadcasting (past, present and future).

Since it was introduced, the uptake has been remarkably strong. The figure aside illustrates this for the three years of the module's existence. 

While it is not possible for me to verify this, I have been told by colleagues in the sports economics domain (whom I meet at conference) that the undergraduate class in Cork is probably the biggest sports economics in any third level institution. 

Regardless, my objective of spreading the message that sports economics' content seems to be working. Our research masters is then a natural pathway for those that wish to continue in the area, and delve deeper into the subject.  

by Declan Jordan

At the business end of the Airtricity League of Ireland there is very little yet to be decided. Dundalk are on the verge of being champions, UCD won the First Division, and Bray Wanderers are effectively relegated from the Premier Division.
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It is also very likely that my own club, Limerick FC, will take part in the relegation/promotion play-off against as they seem destined to finish second from bottom of the Premier Division.

To find some hope I looked back over previous playoffs. It made for unhappy reading. The table below shows the outcome of the last 11 relegation/promotion playoffs (there were no playoffs in 2017 and 2008).

In the last 11 years, the First Division team won the playoff. The odds would seem stacked against Limerick this season. The remarkable success of the promoted teams may reflect the momentum going into the game, where from a First Division gets a boost from achieving a play-off place while the Premier Division team is deflated by not avoiding a play-off place.

This may be a similar effect in the English Championship where the promotion play-offs are contested by teams finishing third to sixth at the end of the season. In the last 10 seasons, the third place team was promoted 50% of the time.

By John Eakins

The new American football or NFL season is just four weeks old but it has already caught many people’s attention with some exciting games and outrageous plays. The highlights section on the nfl.com website is a great way of catching up on all of the best action over each weekend for those who have yet to be fully initiated into the game. American football matches are generally exciting to watch but I am sure for a person who hasn’t seen a game before they can be difficult to follow. In describing the NFL to a novice, most people would probably start with the line that it is similar to rugby and the origins of American football is interlinked to an extent with Rugby. In both games the objective is to get the ball from one end of the pitch to the other end of the pitch into either the oppositions in goal area (rugby) or end zone (in NFL). You can also score by kicking the ball through the goal posts either with a conversion, drop goal or penalty goal in Rugby or a point after touchdown or field goal in the NFL.

There are many other facets of the game however that make American football quite different to Rugby. One is the goal posts. In Rugby the goal posts are H-shaped but in American football they are shaped like a fork with just two prongs. The other difference is that the goal posts in Rugby are on the try line or at the front of the in goal area whereas in the NFL they are at the back of the end zone. What is interesting about this is that there was a time when the goal posts in American football were H-shaped and positioned in the same spot as they are now for Rugby.

The following Sports Illustrated article (here) provides a quick history of NFL Goal Posts. When the NFL was founded in 1920 it originally had H-shaped goal posts at the back of end zone to follow the NCAA (National Collegiate Athletic Association) rules. But in 1933 the NFL wrote its own rules and positioned the goal posts at the goal line. Interestingly the article states that this was to increase field goal attempts because there was too many tied games. In 1967 a proposal to change the shape of the goalposts to a fork was put forward mainly because of safety concerns but also because teams were using the goalposts in offensive strategies, e.g. an extra blocker. Initially the fork shaped goalposts were placed on the goal line but by 1974 every team had placed them at the back of the end zone to remove their influence (almost) completely.

Why the quick history lesson? In researching the history of NFL goalposts it made me wonder if the Rugby law makers have ever thought about making a similar change to their goalposts. What would be the costs and benefits to such as change? The benefits for changing would be broadly similar to what happened in the NFL and would particularly remove the awkward rule where a player can score a try by grounding the ball at the base of the goal posts (which is the case in rugby union but not interestingly in rugby league). It should make it easier to score a try although there is an argument that the additional benefit of removing H-shaped goal posts is much greater in American football given that the ball can be thrown into the end zone, a play which is not permissible is rugby.

The costs of changing would probably be reflected in a decrease in penalty goals and drop goals (conversions wouldn’t be affected as they can be taken from any point perpendicular to where the try was scored). This might not be that significant in rugby league where penalty goals and particularly drop goals are less important (drop goals are only worth 1 point in rugby league) but it would have major implications for rugby union. An allowance could be made for penalty goals by automatically bringing the ball forward to compensate for the extra distance but the same could not be done for drop goals. Whether penalty goals and drop goals are still important in rugby union is another matter and I suspect (although I haven’t checked the stats) they are less frequent. So we will see American football style goal posts in either rugby code at some stage in the future? Probably not given the costs (which would also include monetary costs) and benefits outlined. Tradition would also be a strong motivating factor against any such change..

By David Butler

Below I provide a picture of League of Ireland (LOI) attendance based on some fresh data for this season. The analysis rests on publically available information, accessible at extratime.ie, and is for an even sample of the first 11 home matches for all LOI Premier Division clubs. Some of the data points for individual match attendances are estimates.

​The average attendance at a Premier Division LOI fixture so far this season is 2,232. The biggest attendance was Cork City vs Dundalk at Turners Cross (6,672). The Munster derby of Cork City vs Waterford FC attracted a similar crowd (6,443). The lowest attendance so far saw 271 supporters turn out to watch Bray Wanderers defeat Sligo Rovers 2-1 on the 8th of July. The chart below shows total attendance for each club after 11 home matches.

Some interesting points come out in the data.
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Firstly, the large drop-off between the first and second home fixture, for nearly all LOI clubs, is interesting. A total attendance of 30,777 was achieved when all clubs first home attendances are added up. This falls to 18,613 for all second home fixtures. It seems many casual fans cannot be retained or perhaps the curiosity of a new season is quickly satisfied.

Fixture quality is probably important here but there is a big drop-off after the opening home fixtures (note: some second game fixtures are also on a Monday night which may also have an impact). This is an area clubs could try to target – retaining those first-day fans that may not come back. The chart below details this dip by club (white bars - first home match, grey bars - second home match).

Secondly, I’m interested to see if average attendances fall as the season progresses - my hunch is that LOI supporters can suffer from ‘fixture fatigue’ given the competition design; teams play each other twice at home and twice away. There is perhaps diminishing utility associated with a team coming to town for a second time (and a lower utility associated with heading on the road, to the same place, within a few months for away fans). Playing clubs twice at home also seems to lead to easily forgettable fixtures.

Below is a basic exploration of this idea. I’ve randomly looked at Waterford FC, Cork City and Sligo Rovers. To date, they’ve played several teams twice at home. The data seems to support the view that the second fixture attracts a lower crowd. Perhaps the quality of the second home fixture is diluted? Fans may have already had their fill. Of course, there are many other factors that that can influence the trend (time of the year, weather, match time, competing sporting events, the televised LOI match etc.) but looking at the same fixture twice does, for the most part, control for match quality and uncertainty of outcome. It may not be systematic across clubs either but is probably worth more investigation.

If attendance does suffer for this reason, it might be an inevitable trade-off of a more competitive league; having a competition where teams only play twice would require more, and most likely weaker, teams in the top tier. This could  cause competitive balance issues, especially at individual match level.

​For more on these topics; David Peel and Dennis Thomas had a paper from 1996 on the impact of repeat fixture on attendance in Applied Economic Letters (paywall). For a thorough analysis on the topic of demand for League of Ireland football see Barry Reilly’s ESR article here.

By Stephen Brosnan

Recently, I attended the 23rd International Conference on Science, Technology and Innovation indicators. The focus of the conference was to stimulate discussion on comprehensive approaches and indicators in the study of science, technology and innovation. A key debate at the conference was the use of quantitative and qualitative approaches to research evaluations. Typically, there are two approaches in the evaluation of scientific quality: peer review vs metrics. Peer review refers to a process of research assessment based on the use of expert opinion and judgment while metrics refer to a quantifiable measure used to track and assess the status of a specific process.

The use of metrics as a tool for evidence-based decision making has gained traction amongst sports teams, most famously by Billy Beane of the Oakland A’s. The ‘Moneyball’ strategy has been implemented by many sports teams with varying rates of success. Daryl Morey, General Manager of the Houston Rockets, has utilised metrics to assemble the team with the best regular season record in the NBA while Bill Gerrard has provided data analysis for both AZ Alkmaar in soccer and Saracens in rugby.  However, similar to the academic debate, there has been significant push back towards the overreliance on metrics to guide decision making. Charles Barkley, an 11-time NBA All-Star, argues that “analytics is crap” because the NBA is all about talent, that Morey is “one of those idiots”, and that proponents of analytics are "a bunch of guys who ain't never played the game [and] they never got the girls in high school”.

A key issue in the debate is that metrics tend to ‘count what is easily measurable rather than measuring what counts’. The argument is that metrics fail to capture important tacit elements of performance such as hard work, heart and determination. Furthermore, there is an argument that once a measure becomes known it is no longer a useful measure due to ‘gaming’ of the system. This occurred last year when OKC point guard Russell Westbrook was accused of padding his stats to achieve a season average triple-double. In the final regular season game, he needed 16 rebounds to average a triple-double for the second-straight year. Westbrook wound up grabbing 20, a career-high.

Another limitation associated with using metrics to guide evaluations and decision-making is that choosing the right metrics is not easy and the choice of metrics can lead to contrasting recommendations. This issue is evident every time there is a debate surrounding the greatest NBA player of all time. Michael Jordan’s fans point to his 100% record in NBA finals along with his six final MVP awards as reason he is the GOAT. The choice of these metrics paints the narrative that Jordan was the ultimate competitor with a win at all costs mentality and always showed up on the big occasion. However, Karim Abdul Jabbar’s supporters point to the fact he is the NBA leading scorer of all time with the most unstoppable shot ever, the Skyhook while Lebron James fans point to the fact that he is the only player to be top 10 all time in scoring and assists, thus painting the narrative of the perfect teammate that makes everyone better.

Recently, Jerry Muller published a book entitled “Tyranny of the Metrics” which highlights the dangers associated with the quantification of performance metrics in education, medicine, business and finance, government, the police and military. I think it is clear from this piece that sport may also be added to the list. Metrics may be used (and abused) in sport to convey particular narratives and recommendations and should be used as a complement - not a substitute for- judgements based on experience and expertise.

By Robbie Butler,

It was recently reported (see here and here) that UEFA intend to hold a discussion about the future of the "away goals" rule in European club competitions. Introduced in the mid-1960s, the rule is used as a tie-breaker where, in the event a two-legged match remains level, goals scored away from home count double. For example, if Team A and Team B drew 1-1 in the first leg (with Team A at home), and 2-2 in the second leg (with Team B at home), the 3-3 deadlock would be broken by virtue of the fact that Team A's 2 away goals exceeds Team B's single away goal.

Football has changed dramatically since the 1960s, with coaches and managers now suggesting that scoring away from home is not as hard as it once was. The costs associated with travel have collapsed in recent years, while labour mobility has shot up. Once unknown and distance places are much easier to now play in. Those in favour of the move also argue that an unintended consequence of the rule, is actually more defensive play, with teams afraid to concede away goals. Similar rule changes in rugby, to encourage more tries with the use of a bonus point, have had the same perverse effect. 

What does the data suggest? Below are the number of away goals scored in the UEFA Champions League, since the move in 2003/4 to the current competition structure. ​

The coaches and managers appear to be right. The most recent competition in 2017/18 saw the greatest number of away goals (44). This is six more the the previous record of 38 set during the 2013/14 competition. The trend is also upward, with the three lowest totals since 2003/4 reported in 2006, 2008 and 2012. Just 20 goals were scored away from home during the 2005/6 knock-out stage, less than half of last years' total.

In the months ahead it will be interesting to see what UEFA decide to do. A removal of the rule will allow for a nice comparisons in the years ahead, to see if teams (especially those are home) become more offensive.