The Economics of Sport
  • Sports Economics
  • About
  • Workshop
  • Selected Publications
  • Book Reviews
  • A Primer on Gaelic Games
  • Upcoming Events
  • Media
  • Education
  • Resources & Links
  • Data

Students, Stress and Sport

30/5/2015

 
By John Considine
Two researchers at the Economic and Social Research Institute have recently published a paper on the factors that influence the stress students feel doing the main state examination (Leaving Certificate).  One of their findings is that students who participate regularly in sport experience less stress.

Joanne Banks and Emer Smyth use data from a study that followed approximately 900 students between 2002 and 2007/8.  They use a combination of quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews.  Their results are published in the Journal of Youth Studies.  It is the sport related findings that of particular interest to this post, however, it is worth noting some of the other findings.  For example, females experience much higher levels of stress than their male counterparts.

Another interesting finding is that higher achieving students feel under greater pressure.  The authors put this down to academic self-image.  One possible way around this might be to get parents and teachers to focus on the efforts of the child rather than their results.  Most teachers and sports coaches realise that they should praise the efforts of their charges rather than praise the person.  Carol Dweck provides an excellent account of the dynamics in her book Mindset.  She describes research where students who were praised for their effort subsequently performed better than student who were told that they were intelligent.

When it comes to interpretation of the results from Banks and Smyth, it is worth noting the social side.  The authors highlight the negative impact of feeling isolated and the positive impact of belonging to a larger group.  The negative impact of being isolated can be seen by the large, and statistically significant, impact on how the students (see Table 2 below).  The positive impact of belonging, and frequent involvement, in school-based sport is also clear from the result presented in Table 2.

In the text surrounding Table 2, the authors also provide the details on tests that are not reported.  It is important to outline these other findings so as to clearly understand what is presented in Table 2.  The authors found "that participation in extra-curricular activities such as school-based clubs and drama had no significant association with stress levels".  In other words, it is NOT about belonging to any school-based club or society.  Nor is it about sport outside of school.  The authors examined the "relationship between participation in non-school sports and stress" and "[n]o significant effect was found".  Therefore, it is NOT about sport per se.  It is the combination, and the frequency of the involvement, in school-based sport that is important.  It is worth quoting extensively from the authors to reinforce this point.

"The analyses indicate that students who take part in school-based sports on a more frequent basis (three or more times in the previous two weeks) have lower stress levels than their peers.  In order to assess whether this was related to the impact of physical activity rather than social participation, analyses examined the relationship between participation in non-school sports and stress.  No significant effect was found so it is evident that an activity which combined school belonging and physical exercise played a role in reducing stress".
Picture

Explaining the 'Dictatorship' At FIFA

29/5/2015

 
By Robbie Butler

The FIFA Presidential election takes place this afternoon. Sepp Blatter is odds-on to win. This despite the fact FIFA is engulfed in crisis.

I spoke to friends yesterday who asked me how is it that Mr Blatter continues to be elected as President despite the huge reputational damage done to FIFA over the past number of years. For the answer we can turn to a 2005 article in the Journal of Economic Perspective by Stanford Professor Barry Weingast called The Constitutional Dilemma of Economic Liberty. 

This paper provides an explanation as to how an incumbent can remain in power in the face of widespread opposition. As things stand, Mr Blatter will win the election thanks to support he receives from both the Confederation of African Football (CAF) and  Asian Football Confederation (AFC). It is almost impossible to prevent the current President from remaining in power unless those opposed to his rule convince either the CAF or AFC member associations to abandon him. Neither so far have. It must be in their interests to keep Mr Blatter in power.

Weingast's paper describes this scenario. It starts by claiming that most constitutions fail. This happens when those in power abuse citizen rights, rule by decree or call off an election. Because no external enforcement mechanism exists for most constitutions, success requires that constitutions be self-enforcing in the sense that  officials have an incentive to honour constitutional provisions. Herein lies FIFA's problem. Perverse incentives exist. 

Weingast poses the question how do some constitutions provide incentives for political officials to abide by the constraints announced in the constitution? 

Why is this crisis engulfing FIFA and not other sporting organisations? The answer lies with the member associations FIFA govern. If associations can coordinate their reactions against FIFA in the face of potential transgressions, they can provide officials with incentives to honour association rights. However, two problems exist. First, coordination among associations may be difficult or even impossible, because they may disagree along several dimensions. Secondly, Mr Blatter has been exceptionally politically astute, using a divide-and-conquer strategy to benefit some members at the expense of others. 

Imagine the following scenario. The President wishes to retain power. In order to do so he needs support from one of two confederations; UEFA or CAF. The President has three options open to him. 1) Honour both UEFA and CAF. 2) Transgress against either UEFA or CAF. 3) Transgress against both UEFA and CAF. Given that he needs support from one of the two, Option 3) is unlike as it will probably result in him losing power. Option 1) is also unlikely as he will have to share his gains with both UEFA and CAF. Therefore, Option 2) is chosen; in this case the President transgresses against UEFA and shares some of the gains with CAF. The matrix below models this. The Nash Equilibrium occurs in the top left-hand box. After today, the Nash may well be the top right-hand box. UEFA may ask themselves why did we bother?

Picture
For a full explanation of the dynamics of this matrix check out the Weingast article.

More on Brazilians in European Football

28/5/2015

 
By David Butler

Last week John Considine forwarded me an
article that reported on claims that the Brazilian national team had been picked by sponsors and commercial partners since 2006. The theme of the article was that only 'marketable' players were selected for Brazil.

Recently, I
looked at the increase in Brazilians and Argentinians playing in three European leagues - I'm interested in labour mobility for footballers over the last two decades. If these reports are true maybe it is in the interest of Brazilian players to play in the big European Leagues to increase their chances of national selection (and of course increase their remuneration too)?  

Below is the data for the rise in Brazilians since 1992 for the EPL, La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A.

Serie A currently has the most Brazilians for the season just gone out of the four leagues (37). Interestingly, Serie A had its highest amount of Brazilians (51) last season - the year of the World Cup.  There has been a general increase in Brazilian imports since the 90s for all leagues, especially after the Bosman ruling,  but since the mid 00s the Bundesliga and La Liga have witnessed a decline in the numbers arriving. The Brazilian influx to the EPL took off in the mid 00’ and has stabilised over the last 5 seasons at 13-14 players per season.

Picture

FIFA, Corruption & The Simpsons Revisited

27/5/2015

 
By Robbie Butler

In June of last year we demonstrated how the Simpsons can be used to teach us so much about economics. One such post examined corruption in world football, Given the day that's in it we decided to republish the piece. Enjoy. 

"A number of weeks back we did a selection of sports economics and the Simpsons pieces to coincide with the launch of Homer Economicus: The Simpsons and Economics. Last week’s Sunday Times report on the alleged corruption surrounding Qatar’s successful 2022 World Cup bid gives us more ammunition. The newspaper claims that large sums of money were passed between those behind the Qatar bid and FIFA representatives with voting privileges. At the centre of the allegations is former FIFA's executive committee member Mohamed bin Hammam. The Qatari national was supposedly a key figure in securing the 2022 World Cup. However, the Sunday Times reports that leaked email documents prove bin Hammam paid members of other nations' Football Associations prior to the 2022 FIFA World Cup bid. FIFA’s main sponsors (such as adidas and Sony) are now publically calling for an investigation into the matter. 

This corruption story comes hot on the heels of another. A recent international friendly between Scotland and Nigeria at Fulham’s Craven Cottage was supposedly targeted by match-fixers. These allegations of fraud in the “beautiful game’ were so serious that the Scottish Football Association contacted the National Crime Agency to investigate the matter.
PictureHomer with the Executive Vice President of the WFF
In March of this year, Fox aired You Don't Have to Live Like a Referee¸ the 16th episode of the 25th season of The Simpsons. The plot goes as follows. Following Lisa’s success in a school ‘hero’ competition, a speech she gives during the event goes viral, the result of which is Homer being asked to referee games during the World Cup in Brazil by the Executive Vice President of the fictitious World Football Federation (WFF). The VP satirically says to Homer “Mr. Simpson, please help us. The rot is everywhere. In fact, I see that eh, I myself am about to be arrested for corruption”, before being led away in handcuffs.

Following an excellent refereeing performance in an opening round match between Brazil and Luxembourg, Homer becomes the target of match-fixers. He is greeted by men who offer him a briefcase full of cash. Homer refuses the bribe and vows to be an honest referee despite the protests of the match-fixers. However, upon hearing that he is in fact not Lisa’s ‘hero’, he becomes depressed and decides to drink his problems away. Devastated by Lisa’s ‘betrayal’ he decides to accept a bride on the World Cup final between Brazil and Germany. Homer is offered $1 million so that Brazil will win the World Cup. Upon overhearing this conversation Lisa begs Homer not to take the bribe.  

During the game, a Brazilian by the name of El Divo dribbles into the penalty area before diving. Homer true to his morals however, does not award the penalty. Germany go on to win the match 2-0 and lift the World Cup.
Picture
Picture
Picture
While most of us strongly doubt the actual World Cup final will be  the victim of match fixing, this Simpsons episode is a timely reminder of the dangers posed by match-fixers. The build up to Brazil has been marred by street protests, unfinished stadia and alleged corruption at the highest level of the game. Above all things let’s hope the football is clean. After all that’s why we watch".

Points On The Double!

26/5/2015

 
By Robbie Butler

Last weekend I watched Hull City unsuccessfully battle against relegation following a 0-0 draw against Manchester United. I found the game intriguing despite witnessing no goals. A friend of mine finds this bizarre and questions how I could possibly watch a sport where games can have few, if any, scores. Fans of basketball, rugby or Gaelic Games often find these sports far more entertaining as the objective is to outscore your opponent, rather than defend and hope to sneak a goal. Enter Gaelic football. Followers of the game will be at this stage all too familiar with criticism of the sport, which many are suggesting has become overly cynical and defensive. While attacking an opponent is essential, is seems to becoming less of a priority, with teams happy to defend and soak up pressure.  

For those unfamiliar with the game, the 2014 All-Ireland Final was slammed as being one of the worst, if not the worst, in history due to the negative, defensive tactics on display. 

Since then, a number of high profile parties have come forward to express their views as to how Gaelic Football might be changed for the better. One such proposal was a reduction in the number of players from 15 to 13 to create greater space and more scoring opportunities, particularly goal scoring chances.

Last week I spoke to a colleague on the matter. I asked him if organisers wanted more goals, why not increase the return for a goal, from say 3 points to 5? Rugby has successfully done this for decades with try scores. He laughed and said it would make the problem worse. I deferred to his GAA knowledge. The argument he made was that teams would not be more incentivised to score goals but more fearful of conceding, leading to even greater defensive play.

So how do you get players to move away from their own goal? We both suggested a scoring line, let’s say beyond the 45 yard line, where any point from outside this would count for double. The best comparison is the 3 point score in basketball. This would reward accurate kicking from long distances and force teams to defend higher up. Furthermore, higher defences would allow for more space between the 45 yard line and the goal and should create more goal chances.

Paul Merson & Predictions: Final Update

25/5/2015

 
By David Butler

On the 28th of August I began recording Sky Sports Pundit and ex-Premier League Footballer Paul Merson’s predictions for EPL fixtures. These predictions are usually published by Sky Sports the day before EPL matches. The first five entries that followed his predictions can be found here, here, here, here and here.


So how did the 'Magic Man' fare this season?  

Merse predicted the outcome of 379 fixtures*. He successfully predicted the right result 155 times, the correct score 38 times and has been incorrect on 186 occasions. As per the past entries, Merson's predictions are compared to the output of a random number generator and can be seen below.

Also included is Merson's Premier League Table which represents what the 2014-2015 EPL would look in light of his estimations. Merse rightly predicted Chelsea to be champions, got three out of four Champions League teams correct and suggested Burnley would be relegated.

He does however overestimate the performance of high performing teams and underestimate the weaker ones. I've written about the psychology behind this in previous entries.

For Merson, Arsenal and Tottenham are interesting cases. The results will not be unsurprising for fans. Merson thought that Arsenal would be 2nd and overestimated his former club's total by 14 points. In contrast, he thought that Tottenham would be 11th and underestimated the North London club's total by 17 points. 
Picture
Randomness - Final Update
Picture
Paul's Pie Chart - Final Update
Picture
*There was no observation for one fixture – given that this was Arsenal at home to Sunderland, an Arsenal win was assumed for the purposes of the league table. The score line of 3-0 was predicted by Merson's Sky Sports News colleague Charlie Nicholas.

Opportunity Cost Fantasy Football Style

22/5/2015

 
By Robbie Butler

Recently I learned of a very nice way to use Fantasy Football to explain the concept of opportunity cost. What a great entry point to learning this is. Opportunity cost is one of the most fundamental concepts in economics. Put simply, opportunity cost is what you give up to get something else. The concept expresses the relationship between scarcity and choice, two fundamental aspects of the world we live in. When governments spend money they must decide where it will go. Some people would like to see it spent on healthcare, others education, and others social protection. A common issues facing governments today is that citizens often wish to live in a low tax country, with world class public services. Unless people are willing to pay for public services (through taxation) it is often not possible to deliver first rate healthcare, education, etc. 

Secondary school students probably don’t worry themselves about this scenario. After all, very few are part of the tax net, and fewer still require the use of public healthcare. However, what many do care about is their fantasy football team. For those unfamiliar with this concept, fantasy football is a game where a person picks players from a given league with fictitious money and forms a team. The most commonly used site for this is the Official Premier League Fantasy Premier League. In Fantasy Premier League each player is asked to select 15 players playing in the English Premier League before the season commences. The team can be altered on a weekly basis and transfers made, using the £100 million pounds given to each player at the start of the game. And here is where the economics starts…

15 players are required (2 goalkeepers, 5 defenders, 5 midfielders and 3 forwards). While the prices of players changes based on performance during the year, the values of players going into the final round of matches this season will indicate just how tricky it can to pick a team. As things stand the most expensive players in their positions are presented in the diagram below to the left. The cost of the assembled squad comes in at a cool £135.1 million. Unattainable however, given the budget. Choices must be made. Who should one give up in other to afford someone else? Students might decide they need player of the year Eden Hazard and hence are prepared to replace injury-prone Daniel Sturridge with a less expensive forward. The opportunity cost of having Hazard is therefore a Sturridge or Costa maybe.
Picture
Most expensive 15 players
Picture
Dream Team
The evidence suggests there are a number of under performers in this squad. All things equal, by now these players should have accumulated the most points and be part of the Dream Team. Not all are as can be seen in the second diagram below. Again however, this team is unattainable as it comes in at £116.5 million. 

The decision facing all Fantasy Football players is like that of government. What should I give up in order to have the things I want most? A great way to teach opportunity cost.

Has Phil Still Got The Power?

21/5/2015

 
By Stephen Brosnan

Recently, Phil Taylor failed to reach the Premier League Darts play-offs for the first time in his career following a 7-5 defeat to Gary Anderson. Since its inception in 2005, Taylor has won the League a record 6 times, including a 44 game unbeaten run between 2005 and 2008. So what has caused Taylor’s failure in the 2015 league? One logical view is that darts has become more competitive over time. There are a number of ways in which the degree of competition between players can be measured. One common measurement is the Herfindahl Index of Competitive Balance (HICB). Figure 1 shows the HICB for the PDC Premier League between 2007 and 2015. 
Picture
Between 2007 and 2011, the PDC League actually became less competitive. During this period Phil Taylor won the league 3 out of the 5 years with James Wade and Gary Anderson recording one win each. However, since 2012 the PDC Premier League has become more competitive. This has coincided with the increase in the number of players in 2013 from 8 to 10. Since this increase, Phil Taylor has failed to win the league with Dutch players Michael Van Gerwen and Raymond Van Barneveld winning in 2013 and 2014 respectively. So far 2015 has been the most competitive year of the league since its inception with a HICB Index of 151.07. Another argument is that Phil Taylor’s scoring is not as good as in years gone by. Figure 2 highlights Taylor’s average PDC score against the league average between 2007 and 2015.
Picture
Figure 2 indicates that despite his relative drought in league wins in recent years and Taylor’s failure to qualify for the playoffs this year, he is still performing above the league average. Taylor’s average has actually grown on average annually since 2007 by 1.94%. However, the rest of the league has been closing the gap on Taylor with the average score of the PDC league growing by 4.60% annually. So the numbers seem to indicate that Phil Taylor still has ‘the power’ that has seen him dominate the sport for so long. However, the problem for Taylor is that competitiveness in the league is getting stronger. 



Stephen Brosnan is a research assistant in the Department of Economics, University College Cork. 

Meanwhile, on Stage 10 ...

20/5/2015

 
By John Considine
Today's other blog post examines events on Stage 9 of the Giro d'Italia.  Those following the race will know that Stage 10 also brought plenty of drama.  Yesterday, Richie Porte was penalised 2 minutes for accepting an offer of help from a cyclist from a rival team after Porte received a puncture.  Plenty of cyclists have criticised the implementation of the rule.  The Australians and Sky are not pleased (see Business Insider Australia account here and the reaction of Sky's team principle here).

Predatory Behaviour in Cycling?

20/5/2015

 
By John Considine
Last Sunday a situation developed in the Giro d'Italia that if it happened in the business work could have been classified as predatory behaviour.

Coming into the Giro the favourites to win the overall race included Alberto Contador, Fabio Aru, Richie Porte, and Rigoberto Uran.  At the start of Stage 9 on Sunday, as leader of the general classification, Contador held the pink jersey.  Aru was four seconds behind him in second place.  Porte was 18 seconds behind Aru in third place.  Uran was in eight place 84 seconds behind Contador.

Towards the end of Sunday's stage, a brave solo effort by Tom Jelte Slagter was being chased down by a breakaway group.  Behind this breakaway was the main bunch, including all the favourites.  Then, with 12km to go, Aru made a move that resulted in three of the four favourites themselves breaking away from the main bunch.  Missing from the group was Rigoberto Uran.  The group comprised of Aru, Landa, Contador and Porte.

Despite having a teammate in the group, Aru soon realised he was unlikely to shake off Contador.  Both realised that they had dropped Uran.  Then a conversation took place between Aru and Contador.  We don't know exactly what was said but from that point onwards the breakaway group worked together to put some time between themselves and Uran.  The net result is that Uran fell a further 45 seconds back.

SKY's Richie Porte does not seem to have been part of the conversation and was a reluctant participant in the effort.  Landa did most of the work at the front.  However, when Porte refused to do his share, Landa dropped back and clearly indicated he was willing to sit on Porte's wheel unless he did some work.  The commentators seem to think that Porte's shirking was more about maintaining his own position rather than any concern for the dropped Uran.

One could argue that Uran has nobody but himself to blame for not being in a position to respond to Aru's attack.  Contador and Porte were covering such a possibility.  I have not seen, nor read, criticism of the "collusion" that damaged a rival.  Collusion between riders is par for the course.  It is not seen as a problem.  Breakaway riders will frequently collude to stay away.  This is what happened on Sunday.  It just so happened that that three of the four favourites were in the group.  Acceptable competition in the cycling world is different from that in the business world.

That is not to say that the cyclists do not have rules on these things.  Cyclists do not tend to attack each other around feeding stations or when there is a call of nature.  Cyclists usually slow the pace to allow those involved in a crash back into the race.  Earlier this year, the peloton was split by a train barrier descending during the Paris-Roubaix race (here).  Those on the favourable side of the barrier allowed the others to catch-up (after some prompting).  However, these informal rules can be interpreted in different ways.  In the 2010 Tour De France, Alberto Contador took advantage of a mechanical failure to the bike carrying the Yellow Jersey and Andy Schleck.  Schleck was upset and labelled Contador's behaviour as "unfair" and threatened "revenge" (here).

Schleck was clearly upset by Contador breaking an unwritten rule.  Contrast this with Schleck's reaction to Contador being stripped of the 2010 Tour de France win because of breaking the written doping rules.  Schleck was installed as winner.  Yet, Schleck was reported as saying that for him Contador was always going to be the 2010 winner (here).  Slightly strange but definitely unsurprising.
<<Previous

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013

    About

    This website was founded in July 2013.

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    American Football
    Athletics
    Baseball
    Basketball
    Behavioural Economics
    Boxing
    Broadcasting
    Competitive Balance
    Cricket
    Cycling
    Darts
    David Butler
    Declan Jordan
    Drugs
    Ed Valentine
    Epl
    Esports
    Expenditure
    F1
    Fifa World Cup
    Finances
    Funding
    Gaa
    Gaelic Games
    Gambling
    Game Theory
    Gary Burns
    Geography
    Golf
    Greyhound Racing
    Guest Posts
    Horse Racing
    Impact Studies
    John Considine
    John Eakins
    League Of Ireland
    Location
    Media
    Mls
    Mma
    Olympics
    Participation
    Paul O'Sullivan
    Premier League
    Regulation
    Research
    Robbie Butler
    Rugby
    Simpsonomics
    Snooker
    Soccer
    Spatial Analysis
    Sporting Bodies
    Stephen Brosnan
    Swimming
    Taxation
    Teaching
    Technology
    Tennis
    Transfers
    Uefa
    Ufc
    World Cup
    Wwe

Related

The website is not formally affiliated to any institution and all of the entries represent the personal views and opinions of an individual contributor. The website operates on a not-for-profit basis. For this reason we decline all advertisement opportunities. 

Contact

To contact us email sportseconomics2013@gmail.com or find us on Twitter @SportEcon.