Blog Archives

The Rise of the South Americans

19/5/2015

By David Butler

A number of my recent entries have looked at player migration patterns in European Leagues. This one considers the rise of the South Americans - in particular the influx of Brazilian and Argentinian players to European football since 1992.

The graph below aggregates the number of players playing in the Premier League, La Liga and the Bundesliga from 1992 to date that have Brazilian and Argentinian nationalities.

The Argentinian growth is primarily driven by La Liga. This would be expected as Spain and Argentina share a language. Initially, more Argentinians were arriving but this switched in the 2003-2004 season. Since the 2013-2014 season, once again more Argentinians are playing in these three leagues. While there was 30 from both nations in the three leagues in 1992 there are now 114.

The growth in demand for players from these two countries is greater than any other non-EU country. Something that is not surprising at all given their great reputations in football.

Explaining International Caps

18/5/2015

By Robbie Butler

Last Friday David Butler, Justin Doran, Sean O'Conner and I presented our paper "Explaining International Selection through Multi-Level Modelling" at a workshop seminar in University College Cork. Our paper employs multi-level modelling (MLM) methods to analyse the impact of player-specific, as well as regional factors, on the number of international caps a player receives over the course of his career. Our hunch to start with is that individuals born in wealthier European regions are more likely to accumulate higher numbers of international caps as their abilities are developed in places that have access to relatively better footballing infrastructure such as improved playing surfaces and training regimes. The rationale for this comes from previous work on this blog by David who points out the large number of German national players from the former West Germany.

Our paper considers six European countries (England, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain) between 1993 and 2014. Our data includes information on player caps, position, career length, youth caps (dummy), region of birth, as well as NUTS 2 regional level data such as distance to capital (km) and income of region. Some descriptive statistics from the data are presented below.

The preliminary results prove interesting. We find that an individual's success at youth level, in addition to the duration of their career, have a significant positively impact on the number of caps they win. The maps below give a more detailed overview of random effects (income) of our regression.

We observe that regional income levels have a significant effect, with individuals from higher income regions appearing to have a higher number of caps. There is however, substantial regional variation, captured in the MLM, across the regions and players considered.

Dublin, Croke Park, and Drug Testing in the GAA.

16/5/2015

By John Considine

This weekend the 2015 Leinster senior football championship starts. Over a week ago, Pat Flanagan (Offaly manager) raised an annual issue - Dublin playing at home in Croke Park (here). Flanagan argued that this conferred an advantage on Dublin. The data clearly show that there is an advantage playing at home in gaelic games. IIhave documented this previously on this blog (here).

Writing in the Irish Examiner, Brendan O'Brien, highlighted the revenue argument that is made to keep the game in Croke Park (here). O'Brien draws attention to the possible consequences of the combination of Dublin's dominance of the Leinster championship and the fact that all the Dublin games are played in Croke Park. O'Brien's piece draws attention to the tension between commercial and culture.

The Dublin camp have also addressed the issue in the meantime. Jim Gavin (Dublin manager) responded that the choice of venue is not decided by Dublin (here). The Dublin half-back James McCarthy also made a comment on the issue (here). McCarthy claimed they would love to play games outside Croke Park.

Ian O'Riordan is the journalist responsible for the McCarthy piece in the Irish Times. McCarthy briefly talks to the issue of drug testing. In the same piece, the President of the Gaelic Players Association, Dessie Farrell, is quoted at greater length about drug testing. Farrell articulates some of the fears of the players.

Today, Ian O'Riordan returned to the issue of drug testing in the GAA but this time in conversation with Irish 800m athlete Mark English (here). O'Riordan and English probably put the case more forcefully than I did yesterday (see below). However, there are similarities. In particular, the GAA needs to engage positively with drug testing.

Drug Testing and Irish Sport

15/5/2015

By John Considine

During the last week there has been a relatively lively debate on the issue of drug testing in Irish sport. One strand arises from the news that a GAA player has failed a drug test (here). Many sports view drug testing as a necessary evil. In an Irish context, some sports see it as a sort of compulsory purchase order. In exchange for funding from the Irish Sports Council, sports sign up for something they may not want to do by themselves. It can cause plenty of resentment amongst GAA players who do not get paid to play. It might be an idea for the sports organisations to take a different perspective on the issue and work with the Irish Sports Council to get a drug testing regime that would benefit all parties.

To shift the perspective a little, it is worth considering one element of the drugs testing options offered by the Irish Sports Council. The ISC 2013 Annual Report provides the following table of data where "10 organisations requested testing under the User Pays Programme". By requesting testing, that they will pay for, these organisations signal a willing to pay for drug testing. It seems fair to suggest that this reflects well on the organisations and sports involved - particularly Athletics and Rugby.

When an organisation is paying for the testing it probably feels in a better position to dictate the type of testing it wants. When the ISC is funding organisation then the ISC probably feels in a better position to set the terms of the discussion. However, in both situations there is a trade involved. If all the sports organisations adopted this mindset then they could probably get a programme that better suited their needs. They might also consider paying for extra tests just like rugby.

(Details on the 2012 Anti-Doping ISC Statistics were posted here previously.)

The European Hangover?

14/5/2015

By Robbie Butler

Last weekend Liverpool were all but guaranteed Europa League football next season. Despite an excellent run after Christmas in the league, defeats to Manchester United and Arsenal severely dented the Reds' chances of playing in Europe's premier club competition next season. As a Liverpool supporter this is disappointing. It's not so much that the Europa League brings you to second rate destinations around the continent, but more so with the fact that the competition has a disruptive impact on the domestic campaign. Saturday games become few and far between, with Sunday 3pm kick-offs the norm. Matches often aren't even screened live.

The second issue is something that anecdotal evidence, suggested by the media and others, points to; that of a "Thursday Cup" travel hangover. I find this odd. Teams playing in the Champions League on a Wednesday often play the following Saturday (a three day break). This is the same as the Thursday-Sunday schedule of the Europa League clubs. It's rarely suggested that the Champions League clubs are impacted the same way as those in the Europa League. Whilst I have shown that teams do potentially have to travel further if in the Europa League, the difference is hardly insurmountable. I wonder does the Champions League produce a similar league hangover?

Below is data for the six teams that played in Matchdays 1 - 6 in both the Champions League and Europa League in 2014. The table presents the outcome in league matches following their European games. League games that were hosted at home are marked blue, while away games are marked red.

The results prove interesting reading. Tottenham appear to be the most favourably treated club post-European games. Five of their six matches were played at home following action in the Europa League. That said, they lost three of these games and managed just nine points from a possible eighteen. A mean of 1.50 points per game. This is less than the 1.63 points per game they accumulated to date from their other 30 league games this season.

Spurs aren't alone. Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City and Everton all saw a drop in performance following their European games. The 'Difference' total at the bottom of the table quantifies the difference between the 'Mean' (number of points from the six games points European fixtures) and the mean to date (MTD) from the remaining 30 Premier League games.

Only Arsenal hold their own. The Gunners report an identical mean of two points per game. I guess nearly two decades of constant Champions League football will prepare you for almost anything. The Gunners league perfromance doesn't suffer. Yet another reason why Arsenal fans should be grateful for Arsene Wenger. I'd expect nothing less from an economist.

Identity and Meaning Making Implications in Boxing

13/5/2015

By Stephen Brosnan

Recently John Considine wrote (here) on the topic of values, identity and economics within team sports. While watching the ‘Fight of the Century’ between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao last Saturday night it was apparent that identity and its meaning making implications are just as evident in individual sporting contests.

The fight itself was the most lucrative in boxing history. The fighter’s identities were at the forefront of the pre-match hype with the fight being billed as a Good versus Evil affair. Pacquiao, the clean living family man carrying the hopes of a poverty stricken nation on his shoulders against ‘Money’ Mayweather, the arrogant, undefeated champion who boasts about an extravagant lifestyle and has been spent time in prison on domestic violence charges. At times, the contest seemed less a sporting contest and more a morality play, with each fighter playing up to their role.

Before the fight analysts predicted Pacquiao to dominate the early rounds, his identity as an aggressive all action fighter preceding him. However, the fight itself never quite got going. Mayweather, an expert in the art of defensive boxing, used his jab, quick reflexes and counter punching ability to nullify Pacquiao’s speed and aggression, thus stripping the Filipino of his identity as an all-action boxer.

However, during the latter stages of the fight the commentators noted that boxing can be a subjective sport with each person associating different meaning making implications to different events. The commentators questioned whether the judges would place greater value on Mayweather’s defensive tactics or would reward Pacquiao as the aggressor, throwing flurries of punches without causing much damage.

In the end, Mayweather won by unanimous decision to a chorus of boos from the crowd. Those in attendance who had identified the bout as ‘The Fight of the Century’ felt angry and disappointed with the lack of action. Pacquiao himself insisted “I thought I won the fight,” adding, “He (Mayweather) didn't do nothing.” Pacquiao evidently didn’t place much value on Mayweather’s style of fighting which he described as “running”.

However, none of this is likely to bother Mayweather too much. Mayweather fought a fight equivalent to Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea ‘parking the bus’ to claim the Premier League title this week. Mayweather and Mourinho have been branded ‘boring’ for their style yet their identity has always been ‘winners’ rather than entertainers. The only thing that matters to two of the best in their respective fields is the end result. While Mayweather and Mourinho always seem to run out winners, it’s the fans that often tend to end up being the losers.

Stephen Brosnan is a Research Assistant at the Department of Economics, University College Cork

The End of an Era for the Dutch in La Liga?

12/5/2015

By David Butler

Great footballers from the Netherlands have shone in foreign Leagues over the years. Many names come to mind such as Johan Cruyff (Barcelona), Marco Van Basten (AC Milan) and Ruud van Nistelrooy (Manchester United). A common destination for elite Dutch footballers was Spain's La Liga. Those days appear to be over for now.

The graph below shows the number of Dutch players that were available for La Liga clubs from 1992-2015. After the Bosman ruling there was an increase in the number of Dutch players to the league. A wave of famous imports included international players such as Clarence Seedorf, Roy Makaay, Frank and Ronald de Boer, Michael Reiziger, Phillip Cocu, Patrick Kluivert, Marc Overmars and Edgar Davids. I'm sure everyone would agree that this was a great generation despite their lack of international success.

For the first season since 1992 however, no Dutch player is available to play for a La Liga club this season. Barcelona owned Ibrahim Afellay is contracted in Spain but has been loaned to Greek side Olympiacos. Also, there are no la Liga head coaches or managers that are Dutch. Maybe this is a reason for the absence of Dutch imports? There are currently 3 EPL managers that are Dutch and 14 Dutch players play in the EPL.

It could be explained by other reasons also. Perhaps there are deeper workings that relate to retaining talent domestically for the Dutch? Maybe the Dutch are not producing like they used to ? They stole a march on many countries with their training methods and talent development programmes historically, perhaps the rest have caught up?

Grounds for Optimism?

11/5/2015

By John Considine

In his recent book, Circus Maximus, Andrew Zimbalist presents a critical view of the economic gamble involved in hosting the Olympics and the FIFA World Cup. Zimbalist explains why countries bid for these mega-events despite there being no economic case for the vast majority of these countries. Of course, there are winners associated with the bidding for the Olympics and winners from being awarded the event. However, the amount lost by the citizens of the successful city/county is usually greater than the amount gained.

While the vast majority of Circus Maximus details the downside of hosting these events, there are some small grounds for optimism. One of the grounds for optimism is the reduced number of bidders for the Olympics Games. The first sentence of Chapter 1 in Circus Maximus says "No city wanted to host the 1984 Olympic Games." Then Los Angeles stepped forward and made a deal. LA made a deal. LA leveraged the monopoly position it found itself in dealing with another monopoly. Zimbalist uses this example and the recent reduction in the number of bidders for the Olympics as one possible ground for optimism. The number of bidders for each summer Olympic Games since 1984 is presented in the graph below. The number of bidders climbs from the one city in 1984 to twelve for the 2004 games. It then declines to five cities for the 2020 games.

The reduction in the number of bidders alone will not automatically improve the situation for the potential host. Zimbalist illustrates this with the example of the 2014 FIFA World Cup where Brazil, instead of doing a deal like LA, went above and beyond the minimum required number of stadia.

Another reason for optimism is the manner in which the less powerful are starting to organise to protect their interests. Within the Olympic movement there is a movement towards a more democratic share of the revenues. Zimbalist explains how the failure of various US bids to secure events was interpreted as a backlash against its share of the revenues. As a result, in 2012 the US agreed to take a lower share of some of the revenue streams (including broadcast revenue).

The citizens of potential bidders are also making their views known through protests and the ballot box. They are voting against hosting such events (at least in the more democratic countries). Organisers react to the opposition in different ways. In many cases, guns are employed to make the case for hosting the event. In less democratic regimes, inhabitants close to the sites are moved at gunpoint and protesters face the massed ranks of armed security forces. In more democratic regimes, the hired guns are consultants and their chosen weapon is the impact study.

(Circus Maximus is reviewed in the Book Review page on this blog.)

Competition in Irish Grade One Races

9/5/2015

By Robbie Butler

Anyone that watched the recent Punchestown Festival could not be but impressed by the success of Carlow based trainer Willie Mullins who saddled a total of 16 winners over the course of the five day Festival. With 38 races going to post, this win rate is more than 40% and ensured the leading Irish trainer saddled 13 more winners than his nearest rival at the Festival.

Given the current crop of horses at the stables in Closutton it's likely this domination will continue. Below I provide data as to just how prolific the stable has become in winning top Irish races. Since November 2010 there have been 197 Grade One National Hunt races run on the island of Ireland. Mullins has trained more than 40% of these winners. The first figure below plots the percentage strike rate of the stable since November 2010. The increase in success has been dramatic. (Win % for 2015 includes all 21 Grade One races run between January and April)

Source: irishracing.com

The second figure examines where the improvement has been more impressive. Excluding the only Grade One National Hunt Flat Race at Punchestown, one can examine performance in the 15 Grade One Chases and 18 Grade One Hurdle races. While both have seen a marked improvement since 2010, hurdler performance has outstripped chase winners. This is no doubt down the the likes of Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Annie Power and Faugheen.

Source: irishracing.com

This year, the Mullins team have won 10 of the 12 Grade One Hurdler races that have gone to post. Only the Harry Fry trained Bitofapuzzle and former Champion Hurdler Jezki have managed to prevent a clean sweep.

Efficiency of Premier League Clubs Spending on Player’s Salaries

8/5/2015

By Stephen Brosnan,

Today, sportsperson’s salaries are a hotly contested topic in both national and international media. Recently, Raheem Sterling has been under the spotlight for his refusal to sign a £100,000 a week deal at Liverpool, a deal which manager Brendan Rodgers has described as ‘incredible’.

Last week, Bill Gerrard discussed the topic of analysing sporting efficiency using standardised win costs i.e. how much each team is paying for a win. For clubs, investments in players are made under the assumption that it will improve the clubs performance amongst other things such as increasing revenues through match day ticket sales, shirt sales and marketing. That being considered this article looks at the efficiency of Premier League club’s spending on players salaries.

Table 1 Premier League Clubs Spending on Player Salaries 2013-2015

*Table does not include Hull, Burnley, Leicester City or Crystal Palace.

Manchester United has the highest annual spend on player’s wages in the Premier League with £215 million being paid out in 2015. United have accrued 65 points so far this season thus paying out over £3.3 million per point. This makes Manchester United the most inefficient club in the league and with the club reportedly paying over £15 million for the services of Radamel Falcao, a player recently playing for the clubs under 21 squad, few could argue

Between 2013 and 2015, Tottenham have recorded fastest growth in annual salaries with £120 million being paid out in 2015, an annual average growth of 7.72%. This coincides with a period following the world record sale of Gareth Bale where the club bought spent £107 million on 7 players. Manchester United rank second in terms of growth in annual salaries after a similar investment at the beginning of the 2014/15 season following the clubs worst ever finish (7th) the previous year. While, Arsenal rank third in terms of growth in annual salaries of players courtesy of a change in transfer policy and the signing of players such as Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez.

So the question remains who have been the most efficient club in terms of spending on annual salaries? Southampton rank first for points per £million spent on players salaries. So far this season, Southampton have accumulated 56 points in the Premier League having spent £55 million on player’s salaries annually. This represents £982,143 spent on players salaries per point accumulated. Swansea have also performed well spending £1.23 million per point on player’s salaries in 2015. Both clubs have recorded average annual growth in wages of just over 5% per year and have both sold some of their best players in recent seasons which make their current league position more impressive. League leaders and champions in waiting Chelsea have also proved to be quite efficient paying £179 million annually in wages while amassing 76 points, a £/point ratio of just over £2.3 million per point.

Stephen Brosnan is a Research Assistant at the Department of Economics, University College Cork.

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The Rise of the South Americans

Explaining International Caps

Dublin, Croke Park, and Drug Testing in the GAA.

Drug Testing and Irish Sport

The European Hangover?

Identity and Meaning Making Implications in Boxing

The End of an Era for the Dutch in La Liga?

Grounds for Optimism?

Competition in Irish Grade One Races

Efficiency of Premier League Clubs Spending on Player’s Salaries

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