The current threats to the Heineken Cup and the knock-on effects on the RaboDirect Pro12 is getting a lot of media attention. An earlier post by Paul O'Sullivan addressed the issues in the proposed Anglo-French European Trophy. In this post, Declan Jordan considers the knock-on effects on the Pro12.
The RaboDirect Pro 12 kicked off last weekend (and thankfully with wins for three of the four Irish provinces). The season started however without the clubs knowing what they need to do to qualify for the following year's Heineken Cup - if there is a Heineken Cup next year.
The English and French clubs have long been irked by the relative ease of qualification for the Heineken Cup from the Pro12 (formerly Celtic League and Magners League). This has been to the fore particularly given the success of the Irish provinces in the Heineken Cup, winning 5 out of the last 8 titles. The source of the English and French gripe is that Irish and Welsh provinces can rest players in their 'domestic' competitions as qualification for the following season is generally easier, while they have to keep their best players on the field longer and more often to ensure they finish high enough in their own leagues to qualify for the big money tournament.
The English and French clubs have long been irked by the relative ease of qualification for the Heineken Cup from the Pro12 (formerly Celtic League and Magners League). This has been to the fore particularly given the success of the Irish provinces in the Heineken Cup, winning 5 out of the last 8 titles. The source of the English and French gripe is that Irish and Welsh provinces can rest players in their 'domestic' competitions as qualification for the following season is generally easier, while they have to keep their best players on the field longer and more often to ensure they finish high enough in their own leagues to qualify for the big money tournament.
Although it is hard for an Irish rugby fan to say it, the English and French clubs have a point. For the last few seasons 10 out of the Pro12 clubs qualified for the Heineken Cup. For Irish clubs the minimum objective in the Pro12 has been to finish higher than Connacht to ensure Heineken rugby continues. Of course we can expect each team goes into the league season hoping to win the league and/or finish as high as possible in the table. But economists know that decisions are taken at the margin, which means coaches decide on their strategy for the forthcoming games given where ther club is at the time the decision needs to be made. It may be clear to a coach that they are not likely to win the Pro12 or even that they have secured a play-off spot and the priority may then shift to resting players for the more gruelling Heineken Cup matches. This is not an option for most English and French clubs who must finish in the top 6 in their respective leagues.
This holds up in a (not quite scientific) review of some player appearances in last year's tournaments. Taking a look at three clubs vying for honours domestically and in Europe from each league, there is a clear disparity in how they used a critical resource at flyhalf. Jonny Wilkinson appeared in 24 of Toulon's 28 Top 14 matches (86%) (including play-offs) and all 9 of their Heineken Cup matches on their way to lifting the trophy. Nick Evans played in 20 of Harlequin's 23 Aviva Premiership matches (87%) and 6 of their 7 Heineken Cup matches. Ronan O'Gara played in 50% of Munster's 22 Pro12 games but was available for 6 out of 8 (75%) of Heineken Cup games.
Of course Ronan O'Gara is the only one of those players who would have been called up to international duty, though he appeared rarely for Ireland last season and would have been available to Munster for games between Ireland matches.
This holds up in a (not quite scientific) review of some player appearances in last year's tournaments. Taking a look at three clubs vying for honours domestically and in Europe from each league, there is a clear disparity in how they used a critical resource at flyhalf. Jonny Wilkinson appeared in 24 of Toulon's 28 Top 14 matches (86%) (including play-offs) and all 9 of their Heineken Cup matches on their way to lifting the trophy. Nick Evans played in 20 of Harlequin's 23 Aviva Premiership matches (87%) and 6 of their 7 Heineken Cup matches. Ronan O'Gara played in 50% of Munster's 22 Pro12 games but was available for 6 out of 8 (75%) of Heineken Cup games.
Of course Ronan O'Gara is the only one of those players who would have been called up to international duty, though he appeared rarely for Ireland last season and would have been available to Munster for games between Ireland matches.
The English and French leagues have proposed that the top 6 in the Pro12 would qualify for the Heineken Cup, though each country would be guaranteed at least one entry. This would also involve a reduction to 20 teams with the holders and Amlin Challenge Cup winners also entering. This suggests that, for example, a top four finish may not be sufficient to secure qualification for an Irish club if the others performed very well. The English and French have threatened to withdraw from the Heineken Cup if they don't get their way. This morning there are reports that the French and English clubs are planning a new European competition for the 2014/15 season. Whether this goes ahead or not, and there is clear brinkmanship at play, it is very likely that some change is probable in qualification from the Pro12.
There is also a tension between what is good for the clubs and what is good for the league and the respective power of these will shape the outcome. A more competitive Pro12 with the best players in action is likely to boost interest and attendances. There are also likely to fewer 'dead rubbers' or inconsequential games when clubs are fighting for qualification that is available to only half of them. On the other hand, the clubs will not want to reduce the chance of playing in Europe.
This is likely to drag on and may not be resolved before the end of the current Pro12 season. This means the only way clubs can be sure of qualification is to get into the top 6. Cue a very interesting and more competitive season, on and off the pitch.
There is also a tension between what is good for the clubs and what is good for the league and the respective power of these will shape the outcome. A more competitive Pro12 with the best players in action is likely to boost interest and attendances. There are also likely to fewer 'dead rubbers' or inconsequential games when clubs are fighting for qualification that is available to only half of them. On the other hand, the clubs will not want to reduce the chance of playing in Europe.
This is likely to drag on and may not be resolved before the end of the current Pro12 season. This means the only way clubs can be sure of qualification is to get into the top 6. Cue a very interesting and more competitive season, on and off the pitch.
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