By Robbie Butler
It’s that time of year again in Ireland. People head west to Galway for the seven-day racing festival. For many this is the highlight of the Irish horse racing calendar. For the third year in a row we will be following leading trainer Dermot Weld, as he seeks to win yet another Leading Trainer Championship at the festival. Success in 2013 was followed by a loss last year, leaving the score at 1 - 1.
Each day we’ll follow Weld trained horses and put Fama’s ground-breaking article "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work", which conceptualised the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), to the test. A hypothetical stake of €2 (to win) will be wagered on on all Weld trained runners shorter than 4/1, and €1 each way on all those 4/1 or greater. Daily updates to follow…
DAY 1
A decent start on our quest to beat the bookies. Six horses went to post, three of whom were favourite. Two short priced runners could only finish second, while Sierra Sun at 9/1 was a neck 5th and just out of the placings. However, True Solitaire (6/4) and Harasava (9/4) both obliged, and Defining Year (5/1) finished 3rd in the 5.45pm.
Stake: €12.00 Return: €13.75
Profit: €1.75 Week P/L: €1.75
DAY 2
Our decent start on Day 1 was wiped out. Again, six horses went to post, four of whom were favourite. However, no return is reported. An early blow but there is still time to recover.
Stake: €12.00 Return: €0.00
Loss: €12.00 Week P/L: - €10.25
DAY 3
Just four DK Weld runners went to post on day three. Stuccodor almost got us off to a flying start but was out-battled on the run in and could only finish second. Time to Inspire (5/4) did get into the winners enclosure but the other two runners (Shahzeena and New Agenda) did not. Another loss today.
Stake: €8.00 Return: €5.50
Loss: €2.50 Week P/L: - €12.75
DAY 4
For the second time this week, DK failed to saddle a winner. However, the damage was limited due to some big priced each way success. A number of non-runners resulted in just five runners going to post. Waheeb's second appearance this week saw him finish third at 7/1 while Grecian Tiger, also reappearing for a second time, finished third at 10/1. Still a loss on the day.
Stake: €10.00 Return: €6.50
Loss: €3.50 Week P/L: - €16.25
DAY 5
More frustration on Day 5. Five horses went to post; three finished as runners up, while Tandem was just outside the place money at 7/1. No success to report.
Stake: €10.00 Return: €0.00
Loss: €10.0 Week P/L: - €26.25
DAY 6
The trend for the week continued on the second last day. Just four runners. First Figaro did limited the damage, winning the last race. The other three starters were all placed but at odds short than 4/1.
Stake: €8.00 Return: €3.82
Loss: €4.18 Week P/L: - €30.43
DAY 7
Just one winner on the final day and at odds at 1/3 it did little to arrest the damage done earlier in the week. Just three runs in total meant a small loss on the day
Stake: €6.00 Return: €2.76
Loss: €3.24 Week P/L: - €33.67
Outcome
A pretty rough week all told. After a great start on Day 1, losses were reported on every other day. Nearly a dozen second placed horse meant it was a story of what could have been. A total stake of €66 saw a loss of €33.67. For the second year in a row the market has beaten our strategy.
The great thing about this however is that there is always next year. Roll on 2016!
It’s that time of year again in Ireland. People head west to Galway for the seven-day racing festival. For many this is the highlight of the Irish horse racing calendar. For the third year in a row we will be following leading trainer Dermot Weld, as he seeks to win yet another Leading Trainer Championship at the festival. Success in 2013 was followed by a loss last year, leaving the score at 1 - 1.
Each day we’ll follow Weld trained horses and put Fama’s ground-breaking article "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work", which conceptualised the efficient market hypothesis (EMH), to the test. A hypothetical stake of €2 (to win) will be wagered on on all Weld trained runners shorter than 4/1, and €1 each way on all those 4/1 or greater. Daily updates to follow…
DAY 1
A decent start on our quest to beat the bookies. Six horses went to post, three of whom were favourite. Two short priced runners could only finish second, while Sierra Sun at 9/1 was a neck 5th and just out of the placings. However, True Solitaire (6/4) and Harasava (9/4) both obliged, and Defining Year (5/1) finished 3rd in the 5.45pm.
Stake: €12.00 Return: €13.75
Profit: €1.75 Week P/L: €1.75
DAY 2
Our decent start on Day 1 was wiped out. Again, six horses went to post, four of whom were favourite. However, no return is reported. An early blow but there is still time to recover.
Stake: €12.00 Return: €0.00
Loss: €12.00 Week P/L: - €10.25
DAY 3
Just four DK Weld runners went to post on day three. Stuccodor almost got us off to a flying start but was out-battled on the run in and could only finish second. Time to Inspire (5/4) did get into the winners enclosure but the other two runners (Shahzeena and New Agenda) did not. Another loss today.
Stake: €8.00 Return: €5.50
Loss: €2.50 Week P/L: - €12.75
DAY 4
For the second time this week, DK failed to saddle a winner. However, the damage was limited due to some big priced each way success. A number of non-runners resulted in just five runners going to post. Waheeb's second appearance this week saw him finish third at 7/1 while Grecian Tiger, also reappearing for a second time, finished third at 10/1. Still a loss on the day.
Stake: €10.00 Return: €6.50
Loss: €3.50 Week P/L: - €16.25
DAY 5
More frustration on Day 5. Five horses went to post; three finished as runners up, while Tandem was just outside the place money at 7/1. No success to report.
Stake: €10.00 Return: €0.00
Loss: €10.0 Week P/L: - €26.25
DAY 6
The trend for the week continued on the second last day. Just four runners. First Figaro did limited the damage, winning the last race. The other three starters were all placed but at odds short than 4/1.
Stake: €8.00 Return: €3.82
Loss: €4.18 Week P/L: - €30.43
DAY 7
Just one winner on the final day and at odds at 1/3 it did little to arrest the damage done earlier in the week. Just three runs in total meant a small loss on the day
Stake: €6.00 Return: €2.76
Loss: €3.24 Week P/L: - €33.67
Outcome
A pretty rough week all told. After a great start on Day 1, losses were reported on every other day. Nearly a dozen second placed horse meant it was a story of what could have been. A total stake of €66 saw a loss of €33.67. For the second year in a row the market has beaten our strategy.
The great thing about this however is that there is always next year. Roll on 2016!
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