by Declan Jordan

​One of the explanations for the persistence in relative age effects in sport is the physiological benefits that players born closer to the age cut-off for under-age competition (usually earlier in a calendar year) have over players born later in the period. At a young age this can mean up to almost a year in the development of players in the same age category. This physiological advantage may be compounded by the advantages of getting more game time and subsequently more coaching. This could mean some young players dropping out of the game, leading to a persistent age effect.

In football this physiological difference may be more beneficial in different positions. For example, goalkeepers tend to be taller than outfield players, and defenders also tend to be taller and bigger than midfielders and attackers (we can of course think of many midfielders and attackers that are tall and big).

The graphs below show the breakdown of quarter of birth for elite under-17 footballers - i.e. those representing their countries at FIFA U-17 World Cup Finals between 2007 and 2014. There are four tournaments each for male and female players over the period. The data comes from FIFA and player position is designated on the website for each tournament.

The figures show, from the flatter distribution of the female players, that relative age effects are far more pronounced for males than for females.   

However, within each cohort there is no difference in the relative age effect across different positions. This means that the proportion of players in each cohort born in each quarter of the calendar year is similar to proportions in each field position. This suggests that physiological differences at early stages of development may affect the likelihood of selection (and subsequent coaching attention) in every position. Unlike rugby, it seems there isn't a position for all body shapes in football. Perhaps an interesting question would be to look at relative age effects by position in a sport like rugby, where physical size matters for different positions.

By Robbie Butler

Rome yesterday joined Boston and Hamburg becoming the 3rd city to abandon plans to host the 2024 Summer Olympic Games. Mayor Virginia Raggi’s election in June was based on a number of issues including a commitment to end plans to bid for the Games.

The proposed €5.3 billion budget will now be used for 'other' projects.  

Raggi cited the fact that Rome is still supposedly paying for the Olympics it hosted in 1960! Three cities still remain in the race Budapest, Los Angeles and Paris. So long as there is more than one the power rests with the International Olympic Committee (IOC). 

I wonder will other cities and countries follow Rome's move...

Andrew Zimbalist Circus Maximus: The Economic Gamble Behind Hosting the Olympics and the World Cup provides an excellent analysis of the economic costs and benefits of this and similar mega-sporting events. 

By John Considine

There has been a number of posts on this site dealing with the issue of football shirts and replica kits.  At the start of each season, David Butler has written about the cost of getting a footballer's name printed on the back of a football shirt. There are four instalments of "shirtonomics". Robbie Butler has posted on changes in the Irish national shirt and on the origins of shirt sponsorship in English football. I have written about the UK Office of Fair Trading investigation into price-fixing in the replica kits.  It is a subject that is of particular interest to those who contribute to this website.

In this context, I would like to recommend an article from Sport in History.  The article is from a special edition of the journal devoted to sports kit (here).  The title of the article is "From Sportswear to Leisurewear: The Evolution of English Football League Shirt Design in the Replica Kit Era".  It is difficult to do justice to the article in a short blog post because of the level of detail covered in approximately 40 pages.  In addition to the text there are some excellent pictures and stories. The pictures include graphs of data and adverts used during the different eras.  For example, Figure 5a present a line graph of the percentage of replica shirts/kit that include (i) sponsor's logo, (ii) club badge, and (iii) maker's logo. There is a superb contrast between the steady increase in shirts carrying the club badge compared to the zero to 100% spike in both logos that occurred during the 1970s.  A key to understanding the spikes is a knowledge of the way that the 1968 UK Copyright Act allowed a groundbreaking deal between Admiral and Leeds United.  The article explains the chronology.

Much of the article traces the evolution through three phases.  The first phase was the child-replica football kit.  A key step in this phase was Umbro's 1959 decision to market child-sized kits to individual customers.  Prior to 1959, kits were primarily sold to clubs as sportswear.  The second phase was the official replica era.  One could argue that this era ran from the 1970s to the present (aided by the addition of club and manufacture logos to shirts of all sizes).  The third phase is the retro-replica.  This phase overlaps with the second phase and is built on the nostalgia amongst many football fans.

One particular part of the article illustrates brilliantly the way things have changed.  In 1968/69 the catalogue for Umbro featured the Manchester United and Scotland player Denis Law endorsing the kits of "Manchester United and Scotland, ... eight other leading English clubs, three Scottish clubs and the international kit of England".  Would a current Manchester United player be allowed to make such an endorsement?  How marketable would a shirt be without the club badge, sponsor's & manufacturer logo, and the name of  footballer playing Champions League?

By Robbie Butler

The League of Ireland finds itself again in a strange place. On Thursday night, Dundalk FC arguably got the best result in the history of the league when they managed a 1-1 away to AZ Alkmaar in the Europa League. This resulted is framed against a League that has undergone constant change and crisis over the past number of decades.

Many of the problems in the League are due to the proximity of Britain to Ireland. For almost 100 years the best Irish talent has been exported to the Britain. Some of these players have acquired legend status at the biggest clubs. The flow of talent from Ireland increased rapidly towards the end of the twentieth century, and today, hundreds of Irish players earn a living in the various professional leagues in Britain.

Demand for the League of Ireland has been suitably reduced. The demand function for the product is no different to any other. The price, income, quality, preferences, the probability of a team’s success, etc. are all determinants of demand. If you export your best talent, demand will fall. 

The high point of interest in the League of Ireland is said to have occurred during the 1950 and early 1960s. Interest in the League has subsequently declined since. What caused this to happen? There are a number of reasons, but it’s no coincidence that at the same time the League started to see a drop in attendance figures, live football from England started to appear on Irish TV screens, with the FA Cup Final broadcast live on free-to-air television . European competitions also started to appear on our screens.

Live televised football increased in quantity during the 1970s and 1980s and in 1992 BskyB changed football as we know it. Sunday afternoon football was to become a permanent fixture. This gave the League of Ireland a big problem. Sunday afternoon had been the leagues traditional kick-off time.

Over the course of the next two decades, clubs in the league experimented with various different kick-off days and times. The majority of clubs migrated to Friday nights. This is probably driven by the actions of competitors. Until this season, the Premier League was screened from 12.45pm to 7.15pm on Saturday, from 2pm to 6pm on Sunday’s and Monday evenings. European competition was shown live on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday night. Friday is all that was left.

But now another, potentially bigger problem, has emerged. Sky Sports have changed this again. There is now nowhere for League of Ireland clubs to realistically go to avoid direct competition. I fear this could spell the end for some. While many football fans probably love the arrival of live Friday night Premier League football, keep in mind there is an opportunity cost. It may be the very survival of the League of Ireland First Division.

By Robbie Butler

Horse racing fans in the UK and Ireland might have been surprised on Saturday afternoon, when for the first time in a very long time, Channel 4 did not have live racing on our screens. This despite the fact one of just five Classics (The St Ledger) went to post at Doncaster on Saturday afternoon.

The annual Group 1 instead appeared on sister channel More 4 and was replaced on Channel 4 by live covered of the Paralympics from Rio. This could simply be down to demand by viewers and a decision by the channel to screen the more popular event. Sponsors of the St Ledger, Ladbrokes were pragmatic. Spokesman for the company David Williams, said: "We've got to be realistic. Racing doesn't have a God-given right to have first dibs at the TV buffet of sports broadcasting...we understand the bigger picture".

This could be the first parting shot by Channel 4 to horse racing authorities, in response to the channel ceasing all racing coverage at the end of 2016. This responsibility will pass to ITV who successfully purchased the broadcasting rights from 2017, for an estimated £30 million.

Whether this moves turns out to be successful remains to be seen. The movement of Royal Ascot from its traditional BBC slot to Channel 4 a number of years ago saw a drop in viewing numbers. If racing coverage appears on ITV1 (as many expect) it's likely the sport could see a rebound. If however other channels become the sports home e.g. ITV4, the sport may not get the viewing figures it expects. 

Either way, the move is a statement of intent by racing authorities. Only time will tell if it is successful.

By Robbie Butler

Sports economics formally arrived at University College Cork yesterday evening when I delivered the first lecture in the subject to third year undergraduate students registered in the Bachelor of Commerce and Bachelor of Arts degrees.

I was joined by fellow blog contributor David Butler. David shared his recent experiences at the European Sports Economics Association conference, and made special reference to the session related to teaching sports economics. 

The module will run for the duration of the first semester at UCC. ​Further details on the content can be found here. 

By John Considine

Earlier this week, Stage 15 of this year's La Vuelta had significant consequences for the race.  Nairo Quintana finished the stage second but he tightened his grip on the race leader's red jersey.  Chris Froome, Quintana's main rival for the red jersey, finished 2 minutes and 37 seconds behind Quintana.  As a result, the Colombian rider opened up a gap of 3 minutes and 37 seconds on Froome.  This gap was important because, as expected, Froome won today's time trial.  In the process, Froome reduced the lead to 1 minute and 21 seconds.  Now everything comes down to tomorrow's difficult penultimate stage because Sunday's stage is usually a processional stage.  Froome will depend on his Sky team to help him overcome the deficit.  And here is where there is another consequence of Stage 15.  It could help determine the ultimate winner and it could have implications for the credibility of the organisers of La Vuelta.

At the end of Stage 15, over 90 riders were outside the time limit allowed for the stage.  Included in this group were most of Team Sky.  They should have been disqualified from further participation in the race.  However, the organisers decided to overturn this rule.  Now Froome will rely on these riders to defeat Quintana.  Although, Froome himself did not agree with the ruling (here) he may still benefit massively from the ruling.

Organisers of cycling's grand tours put in place incentives to make each day's racing attractive to the fans.  There is a stage win.  Then there are the range of jerseys that signify the best rider in a category up to that point in the race.  And there are rewards from the most combative rider and team, intermediate sprint points, and money.  Some teams might not have a potential winner of the general classification and they seek to get their sponsor's name promoted by a variety of these means.  For example, they may target particular stages for a win.  To avoid the tours becoming only a series of consecutive days of racing there is a minimum effort required on every day.  Those who decide to save all their energy on a given day by having a leisurely spin are in danger of disqualification.  This is why the decision on Stage 15 has caused so much debate.

Tomorrow the red jersey's destination will be decided.  Will it go to Froome with the help of riders who should have been disqualified? I hope not.

By David Butler

No doubt Valon Berisha will become an iconic name in Kosovo after the Red Bull Salzburg midfielder scored in the Balkan territory's first World Cup qualifying match since becoming a FIFA member. At first I was thrilled to see the Kosovans do well but then I started to question whether their arrival will spell qualification trouble from teams like the Republic of Ireland in the years to come. While the Kosovans are currently minnows, naturally they will have motivations to progress. They haven’t had a bad start; Finland were drawn from Pot 5, not Pot 6, and on top of that, it was an away point they achieved in Turku. If my memory serves me right not long after Montengro came on the seen they achieved a draw with Ireland. 

As all European soccer fans know, qualifying for the World Cup in Russia is challenging. Apart from Russia, who qualify automatically as hosts, only thirteen slots in the final tournament are available for European teams. What’s more, the lowest place runner up doesn’t even get into a play-off. As Robbie Butler showed here, us Irish draw an awful lot of matches.

An issue for the European bloc, and perhaps for those that consider tournament design, is the expansion of the qualification stage. While this has happened on a piecemeal basis, the break-up of the USSR and Yugoslavia were particularly relevant. The graph below shows the number of European teams competing in the World Cup qualification round from 1982 to 2016 and the number of slots available (discounting automatic qualification). Approximately 40% of teams qualified from Europe from 1982 to 1990. This has fallen since then. Now under a quarter of the entrants reach the finals. The number of places on offer at the finals has remained relatively constant. 
 
​As a comparison, the second graph shows the same information for South America (CONMEBOL). The number of slots available here has increased over the years. Approximately one third of teams qualified in 1982. By the time Russia 2018 comes along 45% of CONMEBOL entrants will reach the finals.

Yesterday the new FIFA president Gianna Infantino floated the idea of a 40 team World Cup. While there is an obvious quality trade-off here as we all saw from the expanded Euro 2016 Finals, it may provide a greater opportunity for European teams to reach World Cup Finals.

While things don’t often happen instantly in international football, quick changes can come about from time to time. Wales rose from a bottom qualifying seed for the 2014 World Cup to a top seed for 2018. Iceland, and to a lesser extent Northern Ireland, have shown that success on the international stage is possible, even with relatively small populations. 

By Robbie Butler

European qualification for the 2018 World Cup in Russia started this weekend. ​Competition is set to be fierce with just 13 places available for the 54 UEFA members entered in the qualifying round. Gibraltar and Kosovo both compete in World Cup qualifying for the first time. The nine group winners will qualify automatically for the Finals, while the eight best group runners-up will enter a two-legged playoff (as is normal). The four playoff winners will join the nine group winners and head to Russia for June 2018.

The Republic of Ireland have a difficult task ahead of them. Due to the country's UEFA co-efficient at the time of the draw last year, they were placed in seeding Pot 4. In theory, three 'better' teams are in the group. These are Wales (1), Austria (2) and Serbia (3). Moldova and Georgia complete the list.

From an Irish perspective this may not be all that bad. The graphic below plots the FIFA World Ranking of each of the top three seeds and the Republic of Ireland for the past two years. 

Despite being ranked below Serbia in the draw, the Republic of Ireland have consistently outperformed the Serbs for the past year. Austria may also be there for the taking. The central European country were one of only eight teams eliminated at the Group Stages of Euro 2016, despite being an outside tip by some to win the competition. Top seeds Wales have never been placed in Pot 1. While the Dragons had an excellent Euro 2016 tournament, they lack the pedigree of other top seeds such as Germany, Spain and France.

With a ball yet to be kicked, the Republic of Ireland should enter the qualifying phase in the belief that they can top the group. The country have only achieved this once before (Euro '88 qualifying). This is a great chance to do it for a second time. COYBIG.

By John Considine

Two days ago, Murad Ahmed wrote in the Financial Times about how broadcasting money was fuelling the latest transfer spending by Premier League clubs (here).  The focus was on how broadcasting money drove spending.  It noted that "all 20 Premier League teams have a guaranteed £100m in television rights from a new £5.1bn deal with Sky and BT".  It also noted that the performances of Leicester City and Spurs last season causes other clubs to spend in an effort not to be left behind.

Last night, in his usual Thursday night radio slot on Off-the-Ball, John Giles drew attention to the importance of transfer spending for the broadcasters.  Giles noted that the broadcasters got a form of indirect kick-back from their expenditure on broadcast rights.  The money from broadcast rights allowed the Premier League clubs buy the better players and this, in turn, make the product the broadcasters deliver more attractive.  The link between the broadcasters and the Premier League helps both.  (Of course, one could argue that Pay-TV customers would have still seen Pogba even if he had stayed in Juventus or he had gone to Real Madrid.)

The FT article makes a reference to the Deloitte Football Money League.  A previous post here illustrated the point.  What is noteworthy is that Manchester United are poised to move to the top of the DFML despite three years of underperformance on the field.  While there is a link between on-field and off-field performances, there is a strategy that larger clubs can follow in an effort to minimise the damage done by short-term downturns in sporting performance.  The strategy is to buy assets that generate commercial revenue that is less linked to performance.  Buy celebrity footballers. The Economist magazine drew attention to this when Real Madrid bought David Beckham over a decade ago (here).  Many are now speculating that Manchester United are following a similar model with their 2016 signings (here).

Whether or not Manchester United are following a Galacticos business model, or a blockbuster strategy, it is clear that the Premier League and the broadcasters are in this together.  Increases in broadcasting rights paid to the Premier League is funding player purchases.  These players are then generating greater interest in the product delivered by the broadcasters.  On the surface it looks like a win-win situation.