By Robbie Butler

Wishing all our readers a very happy, peaceful Christmas and best wishes for 2026. The picture above was taken last Tuesday (16th of December) on the University College Cork Quad.

2025 proved to be one of our most productive years to date. Eight papers were accepted or published during the year across football, GAA, grehound racing and boxing. The full list is below for those that wish to read further. 

1. An Exploration of English Premier League YouTube Highlights Consumption: Unexpected Outcomes & Schadenfreude. (2026) European Sport Management Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1080/16184742.2025.2578530.
2. Butler, D., Butler, R. and Singleton, C. (2026). Objective Calls under the Spotlight: Referee Consistency and Behaviour on Football’s Biggest Stage. Journal of Sports Economics. https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025251396508.
3. Butler, R., Butler, D. and Gaine, B. (2026). Folk Beliefs and Fast Thinking: An Empirical Test of the Coffin Trap in Greyhound Racing. Review of Behavioral Economics.
4. Butler, R. (2025). An Introduction to the James Quirk Special Issue and the Economics of Combat Sport. Journal of Sports Economics 26(2), 135-138. https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025221112843.
5. Butler, D., Butler R., and Maxcy, J. and Woodworth, S.  (2025). Outcome Uncertainty and Viewer Demand for Basic Cable Boxing. Journal of Sports Economics 26(2), 196-213. https://doi.org/10.1177/15270025231156052.
6. Eakins, J., Considine, J., Collins, N., Horgan, P., & Weir, C. (2025). Sequential Decisions and Compensatory Tendencies: Evidence from Camogie. The Economic and Social Review, 56(3, Autumn), 341-361.
7. Butler, D., & Butler, R. (2025). The Baby Club: Paternity and Performance in a High‐Pressure Setting. Kyklos, 78(2), 510-524. https://doi.org/10.1111/kykl.12429.
8. McCarthy, C., Bradfield, T., Butler, D., & Butler, R. (2025). Emissions from air travel and major football tournaments. European Sport Management Quarterly, 25(4), 663-683. https://doi.org/10.1080/16184742.2024.2416891.

The blog will return on the 28th of January 2026 for it's 14th year. 

By John Considine

My guess is that most economists would have heard of Kenneth Arrow and have some idea of the work for which he was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics.  For example, he is known for showing the difficulty combining individual attributes into a common measure (apologies for the generality).  My guess is that fewer would know that Arrow was influenced by a paper by a Harvard mathematician with a keen interest in cross-country running.  Gordon Tullock has documented how Arrow acknowledges the influence of E.V. Huntington's 1938 paper "A Paradox in the Scoring of Competing Teams".

Today, while looking for an excuse to take a break from grading students' work, I read this very short paper again.  It is two pages in length.  Huntington opens the paper with a brief discussion of scoring teams of students and cross-country runners.  Because individual times were not usually available, the scoring of the running teams has to be done by the rank method.  By contrast, the student marks can be aggregated directly.  Huntington then presents six cases where teams, comprising of three students per team, are scored using the aggregation of their marks and the ranking method.  In all six cases, Team A scores 268, Team B scores 267, and Team C scores 266.  However, the rank method give six different rankings: ABC; ACB; BAC; BCA; CAB; CBA.

There is a touch of understated class about the following two lines from Huntington.  "In many practical cases it will make no difference which method is used.  Nevertheless, the question has a certain theoretical interest which seems to be worth discussing."

By John Considine

In these couple of seconds from yesterday's game between Brentford and Leeds United both managers raise their hands into the air.  If they were not taking part in a Mexican Wave then what prompted a similar reaction from the opposing managers.  Were they reacting to the same event in the same way?  Or, maybe, one manager was reacting to a challenge by a player from the opposing team and the other manager was reacting to the decision of the referee to award a free.  We don't know but we are more likely to think it is the second explanation because we start with the belief that they are unlikely to agree.

A seminal paper in the area is over 70 years old.  It is called "They Saw A Game". The game was a robust 1951 football game between Dartmouth and Princeton.  When the authors solicited the views of the respective student supporters, they discovered that the students saw the game differently.  My guess is that a survey of supporters of Brentford and Leeds United would also disagree on a share of referee decisions from yesterday.  Therefore, I would question the research that measures referee-error using fan websites.

By John Considine

Over the last 24 hours an amount of Irish media outlets reported the comments of swimmer Daniel Wiffen about the Enhanced Games, e.g. "For me, it's not swimming".  My guess is that "swimming" for Wiffen is more than specific movements of a body in liquid.  I would guess that he means that it is more than having a level playing field (a poor image for a water sport) because there is the opportunity for all swimmers in the Enhanced Games to be on the same substance.  Maybe we need to clearly define what we are seeking to discover when we run a competition (borrowing from a title of a famous Hayek article).  Is it is how fast a human body can "naturally" cover a distance in water?  But this begs the question as to what we mean by "natural". 

We should keep an open mind and repeatedly ask what are we measuring.  We might think we are measuring X when it might turn out we are measuring Z.  In his experiments, Walter Michel started out trying to establish what strategies kids used to combat the pull of instant gratification.  Offered a choice between one oreo (marshmallow) immediately or two when the experimenter returned, Michel observed the kids.  Years later, Michel decided to see how his subjects were getting along with their lives.  He discovered that those who were better at combatting the pull of instant gratification did better academically and in their careers.  After the passage of another period of time, Michel returned again to the issue.  Was there a potential cause outside the individuals themselves?  He found that the kids who did better where those with wealthier parents.  It can be difficult to devise a competition that measures exactly what one wishes to measure.  How many poor kids don't get the opportunity to compete in various sports because of their poverty?

Tonight Newcastle United play in the UEFA Champions League.  Some of their fans are not too pleased about the limits on "financial doping" due to rules such as the UK's version of Financial Fair Play.  There is probably a grain of truth in the view that these rules are designed to keep poorer clubs from transforming themselves with the help of a "sugar daddy".  The club picked a wealthy parent but are constrained in their use the owner's wealth.

In "Competition as a Discovery Procedure", Hayek mentioned sporting and academic competitions.  Many of the "governing bodies" for academic competitions are worried about "unnatural" influences, i.e. the use of artificial intelligence.  Academic doping.  Enhanced intelligence.  Objectors raise issues not dissimilar to financial doping or chemical doping in sport.  But where does one draw the line.  Students from wealthier backgrounds can afford private tuition ("grinds") or go to better institutions.  Maybe AI levels the playing field.  It brings us back to the question "what are we trying to measure when we are using a competition as a discovery procedure?"

We are delighted to share the news that the 14th European Sport Economics Association (ESEA) Conference, held at University College Cork in August 2023, received an award at the 2025 Fáilte Ireland Conference Ambassador Recognition Awards recently. The event was delivered by the local organising committee — David Butler, Robbie Butler and Pat Massey — on behalf of the ESEA Board.
​
This achievement reflects the collective effort and support of everyone involved, and we are grateful for the collaboration that made ESEA 2023 such a success. The gathering included the annual PhD workshop, with candidates from Europe, North America and Asia receiving direction and advice from leading academics in the field.

The main conference lasted for three days, beginning with a keynote address by Professor Jane Ruseski (John Chambers College of Business and Economics, West Virginia University) — the first female keynote speaker at the conference.

The conference concluded with a keynote address by Professor Alex Bryson (IZA Institute of Labor Economics, University College London (UCL)), who is also a Research Fellow at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (London) and a Rutgers Research Faculty Fellow.
​
Over 100 academics and visitors attended the events of the 5-day programme, which included a gala dinner at Cork’s iconic Jacob’s on the Mall. In recognition of these events, the Irish tourism board — Fáilte Ireland — presented Robbie with an award, which he received on behalf of co-organisers David and Pat

By John Considine

As has been documented here previously, the Last Two Minute Reports (LTMR) produced by the NBA provide the kind of data that is difficult to get elsewhere.  These reports provide expert opinion on the decisions made by officials during the last two minutes of an NBA game.  Every decision is evaluated as correct or incorrect.  Critically, this includes non-calls, i.e. potentially foul play but deemed not to be so.  Data from the LTMRs show that just over 80% of decisions are non-calls.  This is not surprising as one could argue that there is a non-call ever second.  Below is a sample of data taken from the LTMRs.

This data is taken from a paper published in the Journal of Law and Economics.  The authors, Naci Mocan and Eric Osbourne-Christenson, examine each of the categories for racial bias and find in-group bias in the 1,068 incorrect non-calls.

What struck me about the incorrect non-calls (1,068) is that these are fouls that the referees miss.  Referees are missing around 1 in 4 fouls.  While the error rate for non-calls is 8.33% compared to 5.22% for call, there are a lot more non-calls.  What would be the implications for the game if they started calling more fouls?  Players would probably adjust and foul less.  But there would almost certainly be more stoppages.  What would be the implications for the consumers at the venue and watching the broadcast?  Would it disrupt the flow of the game and, therefore, enjoyment? It is difficult to know.

By Robbie Butler

The 17th European Sport Economic Association Conference will be held from the 19th to the 21st of August, 2026 at the University of Zurich, Switzerland. It will be the second time the Swiss city has hosted the event with further details on abstract submission, fees and registration availbale here.

Hosted at the prestigious University of Zurich, this three-day event brings together leading academics and industry expertsfrom around the world. Set against the stunning backdrop of Zurich—one of Europe’s most vibrant and intellectually rich cities—the conference offers an environment for exchanging ideas, presenting new work, and building collaborations in sports economics.

As usual, the event is preceded by the annual PhD Workshop, running from the 17th to the 19th of August. Details on this can also be found at the link above.

By Robbie Butler

I am just old enough to remember Ray Houghton’s goal at Euro ’88. It’s not even the first Irish goal I remember. Paul McGrath has that honour: Ireland 2–0 Bulgaria, October 1987. This was the great arrival of the Republic of Ireland in major “finals” on the international stage. I was lucky to catch the first great wave of Ireland’s football team: Euro ’88, Italia ’90, USA ’94.

RTÉ'S Darragh Moloney named cities after Troy Parrott’s recent heroics in Budapest last week: Stuttgart, New York, and Vienna. He could have added Genoa (probably our most famous hour) and Lille.

I was lucky enough to see all of these. And seeing them made me want to replicate our team’s achievements when I was young. How do we do this? We buy the jersey. I had various Ireland kits from 1988, 1990, 1994, and 2002. I did buy some after this, but not to the same extent; age and the performance of the team are probably to blame.

What has been noticeable in recent years is the failure of children here to wear the green jersey I wore so proudly as a child. Instead, you are more likely to see Liverpool, Man City, PSG, Barcelona, even Inter Miami or Al Nassr. The world has never been smaller, and global clubs have never been bigger, but it still feels like something of our own has been slipping away.

There may now be light at the end of the tunnel. Last week at underage soccer training, two children turned up in green Ireland jerseys. It was just days after Parrott’s famous hat-trick. It felt like a small but genuine spark; the kind of moment you hope might catch. If Ireland can manage to qualify for the World Cup next summer, only Czechia and either Denmark or North Macedonia stand in the way, I suspect the number of children wearing Irish jerseys will rise exponentially. When the national team is vibrant, it pulls people back in: pride, identity, belonging. The jersey becomes more than just a shirt again.

Good news for revenue at an association ridden with debt. And also good news for a country that rallies around its football team. The bad news is that there appear to be supply-side issues. An online search for kids’ Ireland jerseys returned a blank. Demand seems to have soared in recent days following the heroics in Hungary. Let us hope supply can be ramped up quickly and that this is the start of the good times returning on all fronts.

By David Butler

Sports broadcasting markets across Europe have been disrupted more than usual by piracy - on this iteration of the piracy cycle IPTV is the culprit.  Recently DAZN investigated losses through piracy in France; they estimated a loss of 400 million euros per annum, although I think they are assuming that the alternative to piracy is consumers just buying a subscription, which is not a reasonable assumption.

Just last week La Liga President Javier Tebas called piracy “the biggest challenge in the world of football and the sports industry in general.” He claimed it cost La Liga roughly €700 million each season. He appealed to the 10 commandments and consumer morals relating to stealing. He stopped there however with the biblical references and did not extend to ‘Thou shalt not covet’ or make any reference to greed…
​
My view is that IPTV could grow without the internet service providers stepping in. At present, ISP's may not have an incentive to do so, but legal changes could make it a requirement. At present droves of fans are out on the high seas and this could increase.  Why? The current price points of services, the proliferation of streaming firms holding rights (which require consumers to buy multiple subscriptions) and the absence of broadcaster competition at a match level. It is now very expensive for the consumer to view the matches of one club legally. The music industry had to learn a similar lesson historically, perhaps sports broadcasters will eventually learn it too. 

By Robbie Butler

“If only Ireland was in South America.” These were the words I used here in 2018 when Denmark ended our chances of qualifying for the World Cup in Russia. 

We find ourselves in a familiar situation once again. The Danes may be on the horizon soon.  Ireland are back in a UEFA playoff, this time facing Czechia and, should we advance, Denmark. The presence of Denmark on the path is an uncomfortable reminder of 2017, when they took the final European place at our expense. Some stories repeat themselves whether we want them to or not.

In 2018, I wrote about the challenges European teams face when qualifying for the World Cup, and how the structure of global qualification often highlights deep inequalities between confederations. Six years later, those themes have not only persisted — they have become even more noticeable.

Take Bolivia, for example. They have lost 10 of their 18 matches in South American qualifying and finished 7th out of 10 teams. Yet they remain alive, with a playoff route that runs through Suriname and then Iraq. To still be in contention after losing more than half of your matches is striking, and it calls attention to the contrast with UEFA.

Ireland’s potential opponents — Denmark (ranked 21st) and Czechia (ranked 44th) — are considerably stronger than Bolivia’s possible playoff rivals. Suriname, ranked outside the top 120, and Iraq, ranked in the 50s, present a very different competitive landscape. The disparity in difficulty is hard to ignore.

The 2026 World Cup expansion was expected to ease the pressure on European teams. UEFA does indeed have additional places, and the playoff format now includes group runners-up plus high-performing Nations League sides. But in practice, the challenge remains steep. Strong teams are concentrated in Europe, and the playoff system continues to produce paths where competitive balance varies dramatically from one confederation to another.

In 2018, I suggested that geography plays an outsized role in determining who qualifies. The evidence today still supports that view. South America’s round-robin format ensures that even teams with poor records remain within reach of qualification. Other regions, too, offer second chances that would be unthinkable in Europe, where a single dip in form can drop a team from automatic qualification into a high-pressure playoff against well-ranked opponents.

This is not to criticise Bolivia or any other nation taking advantage of the system in place. Every team can only play the matches assigned to them. But it does raise a broader question about global competitive balance, and whether expansion alone is enough to address long-standing structural differences across confederations.

For Ireland, the task is once again a demanding one. Czechia are well-organised and experienced in knockout scenarios, and Denmark need no introduction. Our route involves difficult, tightly contested European fixtures, while elsewhere teams with significantly weaker records continue to progress.

​In 2018, I concluded with the thought that things might be different “if only Ireland was in South America.” Today, looking at the contrasting paths laid out for the 2026 qualifiers, that sentiment still resonates. The World Cup may be expanding, but the inequalities in qualifying remain very much intact.