By Robbie Butler

44 years ago Algeria arrived at their first ever World Cup as rank outsiders. Nobody gave them a chance gainst a West Germany side that had won all eight of their qualifiers, conceding just three goals. Instead, Algeria won 2-1. Algeria on their World Cup debut, beating the 1974 world champions. It was, according to reports at the time, the biggest World Cup upset since North Korea beat Italy in 1966.

The African nation then lost 2-0 to Austria, before beating Chile in their final group game. Four points from three games in a competitive group, with two wins including one of the great upsets in the tournament's history. They sat back and waited.

There was just one problem. Their game against Chile had finished a day before West Germany played Austria. And now both European sides knew exactly what they needed.

West Germany scored after ten minutes. And then, in one of the most notorious passages of play in World Cup history, the game simply... stopped. Not literally. The players kept moving. But with that 1-0 scoreline putting both sides through at Algeria's expense, neither team showed the slightest inclination to alter it. In the second half, West Germany made just eight tackles. There were three shots; none on target. The Disgrace of Gijon was born.

Austrian TV told his viewers to turn their televisions off and fell silent. German broadcasters said that what had happened was a disgrace and nothing to do with football.

Algeria lodged an official complaint with FIFA. It went nowhere. West Germany went on to reach the final. Austria were eliminated in the next round. Algeria went home. And the match became known forever as the Disgrace of Gijón.

FIFA, to their credit, acted. From the 1986 World Cup onwards, the final games in each group stage have always kicked off simultaneously. The whole point is that teams cannot know what result they need before they play, removing the incentive for the kind of cynical calculation that unfolded in Gijón.

It is a rule that remains in place today. Every World Cup since 1986 has had simultaneous final group-stage finales. The Disgrace of Gijón literally changed how the sport is administered. Which makes what is happening tonight all the more extraordinary.

Austria and Algeria are in Group J, alongside Argentina and Jordan. Argentina have already won the group. Jordan are eliminated. Which leaves Austria in second and Algeria in third, both on three points, separated only by goal difference.
For the first time since 1994, the 2026 World Cup has reintroduced qualification for third-place teams; the eight best third-placed sides across all groups advance to the knockout round. Algeria, in third, are almost certainly safe if they get a draw. So a draw tonight puts Austria through as runners-up and Algeria through as a third-place qualifier. Both go home happy.

Let’s see if the moral outrage of 1982 is enough to change behaviour 44 years later…Austria and Alergia again but this time they are on the same side.

By Robbie Butler

Much has been made about FIFA President Gianni Infantino's appearance at both Ecuador vs Germany and Ivory Coast vs Curacao at the World Cup. The President has attended many games but the reason these games are different is because they kicked-off at exactly the same time on Thursday 25th of June.

Infantino uses private transport to move between games. The short distance between Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia and the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey - less than 100 miles - made this possible. Whether such an approach is good for the environment - a message FIFA and others have championed since the Green Goal campaign back at the World Cup in 2006, is questionable.

So too is the expansion of the tournament. And the travel distances involved for competing teams. But this was both knowable and known. The implications of the tournament were obvious to anyone that cared to look. In 2021, we started to consider this for every World Cup and UEFA European Championship since 1990. The paper explores the distances travelled by teams and CO2 emissions from their travel. The abstract and a link to the paper are below.

ABSTRACT

Research Question: This paper explores the environmental impact of air travel during two international football tournaments – the Mens FIFA World Cup and UEFA European Championships – by estimating CO2 emissions from the movements of competing teams. Specifically, we consider how travel associated with major international football tournaments has evolved over time.

Research Methods: We access data for 895 international football matches (June 1990–July 2024). Our data focuses on the travel associated with players and management travelling to, and within, host countries and includes the movement of more than 16,000 people. Estimates of CO2 emissions per passenger (per kilometre) are used to examine the environmental impact of travelling to host countries, and competing, during the tournament.

Results and Findings: Our findings are the first attempt to demonstrate the CO2 emissions from team travel to and within major football tournaments. Despite improvements in aeroplane fuel efficiency, the carbon footprint from team travel has generally not been reduced. The decision to expand these tournaments, locate matches across large geographic areas, and use co-host countries has exacerbated this issue.

Implications: Our findings can support sustainability initiatives and could be adopted by both federations to curb CO2 emissions which appear to undermine genuine attempts to become more environmentally friendly.

Full paper at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/16184742.2024.2416891. 

By Daragh O'Leary

Mayo Gaelic footballer, Kobe MacDonald, is about to change sport to Aussie rules when he starts his professional career with St Kilda Football Club in the Australian Football League. The eighteen-year-old will of course no longer be able to play for his local GAA club (Crossmolina Deel Rovers) or Mayo given that he will be moving to Melbourne, Australia. Naturally, many pundits within the Gaelic football space have begun speaking about the need for some kind of compensation to be given to his local club.

The motivation for this call for compensation is straightforward enough. Kobe MacDonald was developed as a footballer by his local GAA club and intercounty team, but now St Kilda is the club which will benefit from his development. Where the matter of compensation becomes less straightforward is the justification for it.

One of the amazing features about the GAA is that it is an amateur association driven by local community engagement. It is unfortunate then that when the GAA helps develop a player which will generate value for a separate professional club it won’t benefit from any of this value.

However, the amateur nature of the GAA means that its’ players are not paid by nor contracted to their clubs. Although some players may receive expenses and there are rules around switching club, GAA players are not employees of their club or county. Accordingly, it’s very hard to see a reason why an AFL team would have to compensate Crossmolina Deel Rovers for the services of Kobe MacDonald.

Robbie has previously written on the topic of transfers and contracts with reference to Alexander Isak’s transfer saga between Newcastle United and Liverpool F.C. In this post he argues that clubs could calculate compensation as the value of the remaining wages on a player’s contract which should be in line with the club’s valuation of the player’s services. For example, if a player was earning €1,000,000 a year and had three years left on their contract then a compensation fee of €3,000,000 could be paid to the club.

This is where the case for compensation becomes more difficult to justify in the case of GAA players.

They are not contracted to or compensated by their clubs so there are no obvious grounds for contractual compensation if the player decides to leave because there is no breach of contract occurring. Clubs may argue that they invest time into their players through coaching and facilities, but GAA players can point out that they, or more likely their parents, pay membership fees, contribute towards fundraising events, and in some cases volunteer their own time to help the club provide such services.

If Kobe MacDonald moved to Melbourne to work as an accountant, engineer, or teacher, there would be no expectation that his new employer should compensate Crossmolina Deel Rovers. The argument for compensation therefore appears to hinge not on the player's departure from the club, but on the fact that another sporting organisation stands to benefit from his footballing ability.

​The non-professional nature of the GAA is something which facilitates this continued lack of compensation which its’ clubs receive for their high-quality players when they transition to the AFL. The lack of any contractual agreement between players and their GAA club makes it unclear as to why these clubs should be compensated when their players decide to leave and play for a professional team who can afford to pay them for 

By John Considine

Below is a chart showing the combinations of total points scores by teams in 803 games in 21st century hurling.  The games are from the intercounty senior hurling championship.  The highest recurring scoreline is 22 points for the winning team and 21 points for the losing team.  That occured 10 times this century.

Tied games are included and these are on the main diagonal with the numbers in blue font.  The scores are for normal time and do not include games where extra-time was played.

It includes two games where the losing team scored only 4 points.  One in Munster in 2000 and one in Ulster 7 years later.  The 0-09 to 0-08 scoreline comes from Leinster in 2006.

By John Considine

Today is Bloomsday.  A day commemorating James Joyce’s Ulysses where sport and economics come together in the character of The Citizen.
 
The Citizen is believed to be loosely based on Michael Cusack.  It is easy to see why.  Cusack believed that Irish sport and the Irish economy were diminished by being part of a British Isles association ruled from England.  An advocate of athletic activities, Cusack believed in the need for a local element and this resulted in him becoming the founder of the Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA).
 
When it came to the economy, The Citizen uttered the words “What do the yellowjohns of Anglia owe us for our ruined trade and our ruined hearths?”  Reparations, in 21st century language.  While the counterfactual scenario is difficult to construct, it is hard to imagine that what constitutes the Republic of Ireland would have the GDP per person it has today if it was still ruled from London.
 
Of course, nationalism is not always positive.  The Citizen is seen as an antisemite.  Nowadays, the organisation that Cusack founded is criticised for taking sponsorship from Allianz because of its links to Isreal.  I'm not sure what Michael Cusack would think.

For those taking an odessey along the West of Ireland this summer, they could do worse than visit Michael Cusack country.  There is the Michael Cusack Centre in Carron, County Clare.  A few miles down the road is Ballyvaughan and the Aillwee Caves.  Then one can take the coast road to Fanore, Doolin, Ballyfadeen, and the Cliffs of Moher.

By Robbie Butler

And just like that, two halves of football turned into four quarters under the guise of ‘player welfare’.

One can only be impressed with football’s governing body for pulling off a fundamental change to football with only the slightest resistance. The idea of moving the game to four quarters was actually floated for the World Cup in the USA in 1994, but was quickly kicked into touch. Football fans would never have accepted this change, even in the home of sports played in quarters rather than halves. Fast forward 32 years and things have changed.

Like many things in football today, I don’t like how the rules of the game are evolving. This appears, on the surface at least, to be less about player welfare (do professional players, used to playing for 45 minutes, really need to rehydrate after just 22 minutes or so of play?) and more about increasing revenues. At least one channel I know of has used the three-minute breaks to show advertisements. Thankfully, the BBC and ITV, the channels I am viewing, have not taken this route. The BBC does not advertise, and ITV has so far resisted the opportunity to do so.

The rule change has also fundamentally altered added time. Every half must now have three minutes of added time at the end. This is unprecedented.

The game is therefore now 96 minutes long, at a minimum. Forty-eight minutes in each half. It begs the question: why not stop the clock for three minutes if the time is fixed and the break is compulsory?

It is the same as half-time. The clock does not continue while the players rest and take instructions. I believe it continues in this case to give the illusion that there is “nothing to see here”.

Unfortunately, there is. The game has changed again. And not, in my opinion, for footballing reasons, but rather to ensure record revenues for yet another World Cup cycle.

Virgil van Djik captured it perfectly this week when he said "Hydration breaks are a bit interesting because I was obviously watching almost all of the games up until today [when he played] and, every time going to a commercial is a bit...not really that I like it. And I think for the neutral watchers on TV, it's also not great. So, if it's really hot, obviously it will be good to put them in, but I think you have to look at it in every game seperately in my opinion."

By Robbie Butler

During the winter I was stuck for reading material. I went on Amazon and found "The Power and the Glory: A New History of the World Cup" by Jonathan Wilson. An accidental find that was brilliant to read. The book was named "Winner of the Sports Book of the Year Award 2026". 

With Mexico vs South Africa at the Estadio Azteca today kicking-off World Cup 2026, it's going to be wall-to-wall football for the next five weeks. Reading this was the perfect set-up for understanding the politics and economics of the game today.

Anyone that thinks the 2026 tournament is somehow different to what went previously should read The Power and the Glory. Every World Cup since 1930 has nearly been more of a political economy than a football. The bidding processes, the television deals, the sponsorship.

Wilson's argument, which he builds up methodically across the book, is that the corruption and the sportswashing we associate with recent tournaments isn't new at all. It's basically been there from the start, just dressed differently each time.

This tournament starting today consists of 48 teams and 104 games, spread across three countries. The scale of it is hard to get your head around. The travel is enormous as we have published on here. From an economics point of view it's a fascinating case study in whether FIFA has traded competitive quality for market reach, and whether the host cities will actually see the returns they were promised. The former is probably "yes" and the latter most certainly "no".

Wilson explores how governments have used the tournament to project legitimacy, like Mussolini's Italy in 1934, and the Argentine junta in 1978, and plenty of others. He argues that the last traditional World Cup was in Mexico 1970. Sponsorship and broadcasting has taken over since. 

The book is also filled with great stories and Pelé, Cruyff and even the Republic of Ireland international team showing up to play Italy in New York in 1994 with the wrong coloured jerseys! The team then waited hours in the airport trying to catch a flight back to basecamp which had been delayed. Roy Keane experienced this as a young player.

Saipan in 2002 seemed all the more understandable...

By John Considine

Bernie Collins is an analyst for Sky’s F1 coverage.  She had previously worked as a strategist for a number of F1 teams and she is the author of How to Win a Grand Prix (written with Maurice Hamilton).  I was reminded of the book when listening to her and the Sky coverage of the qualifying session for the Monaco Grand Prix last Saturday.
 
The first reminder came when she explained to viewers the difficult with using GPS data in Monaco because of the buildings.  The second reminder came when Martin Brundel said of Q3, “this is the most important 15 minutes of the weekend”.  Q3 determines the Top-10 grid positions for the grand prix and a good grid position is more important in Monaco than anywhere else.  The reason grid position is so important in Monaco is because of the difficulty in overtaking.
 
The Monaco Grand Prix features repeatedly in How to Win a Grand Prix because it is an outlier.  Collins tells us that it is the race where track position is all important.  At the other end of the spectrum is Bahrain where overtaking is relatively easy.
 
But it is her explanation of a different spectrum that rang a bell with the educator in me.  She starts Chapter 15 with the sentence “The tyre model is the foundation for all strategy.”  The first thing they do is to work out the lap time if there was only one car on the track.  Their car.  I remember my delight in reading it.  Here in the “real-world”, with millions of euro/dollars in play, is somebody considering an unrealistic hypothetical situation.  The ends of a spectrum can be useful for helping us think about things.  It is a reason for studying market structure models like monopoly and perfect competition.  Everyone knows that there is no competition in what is called perfect competition and that it probably doesn't exist in the “real world”.  But if it can help our thinking then it is useful.  Why would anyone want to know the fastest lap time for only one car?  If there was only one car then one would drive slowly to win the race and reduce the possibility of a crash.  They do it to establish a limiting case.  It helps their thinking.

What did Collins do as a strategist after establishing the fastest lap time with only one car?  She examined what would be the time with all the cars on the track.  Having all the cars on the track during a Grand Prix is rare enough.  One car was gone on the first lap in Monaco last Sunday.  Yet, the second step was to establish the lap times with all the cars on the track.  They do this to help them think about what might normally happen.

Then there were estimates of the lap times needed to ensure survival in Q1 and Q2 when a quarter of the cars are eliminated at each stage.
 
Then the weather conditions, particularly rain and temperature, need to be included.
 
The layers of complication are added and added.  Including guessing as to what the other teams might be doing.  One needs to read the book to appreciate the complexity.  Yet, they started by establishing the lap times with one car on the track and followed it with establishing a time when all the cars were on the track.  It is not a textbook but it might help some to appreciate why market structure with many competitors or one “competitor” are studied.

By John Considine

This week the LA Rams traded for Myles Garrett.  In return for his services they gave the Cleveland Browns a bunch of draft picks plus Jared Verse.  This seems to be a deliberate strategy on the part of the Rams (as suggested previously here on this site).  The Rams seem happy to trade away "potential" for "proven" - although Verse was defensive rookie of the year.  The Rams previously did something similar for Matthew Stafford with glittering success.  Stafford is the reigning MVP and there was some questioning of the Rams when they selected a quarterback with their first round draft pick this year.  The move for Garrett seems to be more consistent with their approach to draft picks over the last decade.  It makes me wonder if the Rams are taking lessons, directly or indirectly, from the Nobel Laureate Richard Thaler.

Thaler devotes a chapter in Misbehaving: The Making of Behavior Economics to, what he sees as, systematic errors in decision making in the NFL.  His main focus is on the way early draft picks are overvalued. This is primarily based on a statistical analysis of the large number of decisions in his sample.  However, he does provide a case study of the Washington franchise and their inability to follow they advice that he was directly providing.  The LA Rams seem to be following an alternative approach.

By Daragh O'Leary

​As an Arsenal supporter who grew up during the Arsene Wegner era, I was always confused about the famous chant 1-nil-to-the-Arsenal. Wegner’s style of football was a very expansive and fluid way to play the game which resulted in great wins for the Gunners. In his later years, his approach remained somewhat the same in intention but became associated with physically weak players. This meant Arsenal were often bullied and fell short of victory. 

Accordingly, I wasn’t sure why Arsenal were ever associated with the famous chant that spoke of tight and unattractive victories because for as long as I could remember they either won beautifully or completely capitulated.

Of course, the famous chant harks back to a time of Arsenal’s history where they were led to success by George Graham who embraced a very defensive and pragmatic style of football. While I wasn’t around for this period, it’s safe to say I have become somewhat accustomed to this style of football throughout the last 9 months.

A frequent critique of Arsenal this season has been that they are an unattractive side to watch. I cannot dispute this. A lot of their games have been won by very tight margins, and this has led to more 1 nil victories than they have managed in previous seasons.

Arsenal have managed more victories this year which ended 1 nil (or nil 1) than they have in previous seasons where they finished second.

Furthermore, this year they managed as many 1 nil wins in the first half of the season as they did in the second half of the season (4) - with 3 of these coming in the final 4 games which led to the title. This is in stark contrast to the last two seasons where they managed just one 1 nil victory in their final 5 games and the 2023 season where they managed no 1 nil wins in their last five games.
​
As an Arsenal fan, I’m not quite sure how I feel about this. The presence of more 1 nil wins has certainly meant that I have had to endure a lot of matches that I didn’t enjoy watching. However, in previous seasons the absence of those 1 nil victories was associated with capitulation and key losses which ultimately resulted in no league title. Perhaps 1 nil wins late on in the season can be considered some kind of a proxy for grit or bottle. For my own sake I hope next year the Gunners can try to increase their number of 2 nil wins.