By Robbie Butler

A number of us have touched on the issues of competitive balance and the Six Nations in the recent past (see here and here). The performance of Italy brings another return to topic. The Italians were hammered again yesterday and Dublin, and have again lost their open three Six Nations games.

This will do nothing to stop questions about their participation into the future and whether having an non-competitive team in the six-team round-robin competition is good. As relegation is not used, the punishment for finishing last is not like what it is in other teams sports.

The problem for Italy and the organisers is that the Italians appear to be getting worse.

​The figure below shows all seasons from 2000-2021 where the Italian's have competed. The team are scoring less (blue) and conceding more (orange) then when they started. The 239 points against in 2021 was a new record. The team scored just 44 points in 2020 and 55 in 2021. Overall the points difference (grey) is trending downwards. 

By John Considine

On Sunday the Eurosport commentators changed their minds as the final 40km of the ultimate stage of the Tour du Var unfolded.  As the kilometers ticked down, the evidence being presented by the cyclists suggested that earlier statements needed to be amended.  Using their accumulated knowledge of cycling and the terrain of the race, the commentators were guessing about the physical condition of the riders and the strategy that they were following.  As the facts changed, they changed their minds.
 
At the start of the final stage, Tim Wellens held a tie-breaker advantage over Nairo Quintana with both having the same time for the first two days of racing.  With 40km remaining there was a breakaway group with a 40 second advantage over Wellens, Quintana, and what remained of the peloton.  It was at this point that the dynamics of the race were about to change.
 
With approximately 37km remaining, the breakaway itself had broken up.  Three riders were at the head of the race.  Two of these three riders were from the same team (Thibaut Pinot and Michael Storer).  While out of contention for the overall win, they could garner a stage win.  At around the same time, Guillaume Martin decided to attack from the peloton.  Fifth in General Classification, Martin posed a threat to riders like Wellens and Quintana.  The commentators speculated that Martin would join the three out front and all four would work together.  Hypothesis number one.
 
With 35.2km remaining, possibly spooked by Martin’s move, Quintana decided to attack.  With a teammate, he broke from what was left of the peloton.  The commentators commended Tim Wellens for not responding immediately to the explosive attack by the lighter rider on the steep slopes.  However, it was only a matter of seconds before he was forced to respond.
 
Out front, Pinot attacked.  Hypothesis one now invalid – at least in its original form.
 
Vuillermoz was second and Storer was third.  The speculation was that Storer remained third on Vuillermoz’s wheel as would be normal in these two-on-one situations.  Why would he help an opponent catch a teammate?  Let us call this hypothesis number two, namely, that Storer’s behaviour was part of a strategy rather than an inability to go with his teammate.
 
This speculation continued as Quintana and Martin joined Vuillermoz and Storer to form a group of four behind Pinot.  Storer’s strategy to free-ride on the effort of the other three continued to make strategic sense.  He was not going to help the others make up the 10 second on Pinot.  The commentators noted that Quintana and Martin accepted this (rational) behaviour as part of cycling’s informal rules.
 
When Quintana left Storer, Martin and Vuillermoz in his wake, it was Storer who tried to respond.  This was consistent with hypothesis two.  He would try to catch Quintana and then sit on Quintana wheel as Quintana chased Pinot.  However, Storer could not catch Quintana.
 
With 29.6km Quintana caught Pinot.  The Columbian and the Frenchman rode together for a number of kilometers.  At 25.5km the commentators speculated that Quintana might gift Pinot the stage if Pinot shared the workload.  Pinot would win the stage and Quintana the overall race.  Hypothesis number three.  At this point, Wellens was 25 second behind.
 
With 20.5km Wellens caught the three behind Quintana and Pinot.  The commentators predicted that Wellens would catch Quintana before the finish.  Hypothesis number four.  At this point, probably prompted by the change behind, and after 10km riding together, Quintana left Pinot to strike for home.  With that move hypothesis number three bit the dust.
 
Now the commentators started to speculate why Martin and Vuillermoz should help Wellens in his attempt to catch Quintana.  With just over 16km to go the group picked up Pinot.  The commentators predicted that the five riders would not just leave Quintana win the stage.  Moreover, they noted the fact that Storer had been free-riding and, therefore, might be in the strongest position.  The implicit hypothesis number five was that the five riders were in the physical condition to chase down Quintana.  Storer had earlier failed to lead Martin and Vuillermoz back to Quintana.  Now the group included Wellens and Pinot.  Five is better than three.  But only if all are able to contribute.
 
However, Quintana was starting to increase his advantage as Wellens was left to lead the chasing group.  The commentators found it “quite puzzling” as to why the others were not helping Wellens even though they acknowledged that there was a tradition of not helping the overall race leader catch the person in second place in General Classification.  At 12.3km the commentators said that the decision not to help Wellens must be part of a plan.  Hypothesis number six.
 
All the while Quintana stretched his lead.  It was 60 seconds with 11.5km remaining when Martin attacked and opened a gap on Wellens and the others.  This changed the mind of the commentators.  The lack of reaction of the other to the Martin-attack made them state that the others did not have the physical capacity to react rather than it being part of a plan.  Hypothesis five bit the dust.  Hypothesis six bit the dust.  And hypothesis four, that Wellens would catch Quintana before the finish, was about to bite the dust.
 
With just under 10km to go, the commentators declared that the efforts to catch Quintana were “mission impossible”.  From here to the finish Quintana’s efforts were described as a “force of nature”.  Only hypothesis two, of the six outlined, was left standing as the storm of the previous 30km settled.
 
As the facts changed, the commentators changed their mind.  I like this approach.  When it became apparent that the riders could not match Quintana, the commentators accepted what they saw and changed their minds.  It was no longer the plan that was the problem.  Too frequently, I listen as other commentators and analysts criticize competitors for not making their hypothesis hold water.  The more confidently the prediction were made, the more strident the criticism of the competitors.  This was not that case on Eurosport last Sunday.  The commentary highlighted the dazzling dynamics of professional road cycling where informal coalitions are formed and dissolved as the circumstances change.  Keynes would approve.

By David Butler

The Telegraph/Irish Independent featured a piece last Saturday looking at how Chelsea are 'weaponizing the loan system'. The argument is that Chelsea receive a triple benefit from the strategy of loaning players to league rivals; player development/experience with an EPL club, bolstering other squads to take on their competition and facing a weakened squad when it comes to their own fixture - the loanee is prohibited from playing against their parent club.

The rules could be changed to allow a player take on their parent club, but we see an obvious conflict of interest.
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Maybe the rules could revert to clubs not being allowed to loan within their league? This is probably not warranted however as within-EPL loans are rare.

The table shows the number of senior players EPL clubs have on loan this season and how many play in the EPL. These numbers include loan-to-buy obligations.  Chelsea lead the way, but only 3 of their loans are in the EPL. In total there are only 7 within-EPL loans – hardly mass weaponization? Within-EPL movement only counts for 3% of total loans.

By Robbie Butler

In September 2018 I wrote this regarding UEFA discussions to remove the away goals rule. In June 2021, UEFA decided to press ahead with the change so that away goals - a cornerstone of European club competition since 1965 - would no longer be worth double in the event of a draw.

UEFA made a statement saying that: "away goals would no longer be given additional weight to decide a tie, [and] be removed from the criteria used to determine the rankings when two or more teams are equal on points in the group stage i.e. the criteria applied to matches played by the teams in question.". 

European football's governing body provided a rationale for this, stating that: "Statistics from the mid-1970s until now show a clear trend of continuous reduction in the gap between the number of home/away wins (from 61%/19% to 47%/30%) and the average number of goals per match scored at home/away (from 2.02/0.95 to 1.58/1.15) in men’s competitions".

UEFA President Aleksander Čeferin went onto say: "The impact of the rule now runs counter to its original purpose as, in fact, it now dissuades home teams – especially in first legs – from attacking, because they fear conceding a goal that would give their opponents a crucial advantage. There is also criticism of the unfairness, especially in extra time, of obliging the home team to score twice when the away team has scored. It is fair to say that home advantage is nowadays no longer as significant as it once was. Taking into consideration the consistency across Europe in terms of styles of play, and many different factors which have led to a decline in home advantage, the UEFA Executive Committee has taken the correct decision in adopting the view that it is no longer appropriate for an away goal to carry more weight than one scored at home.”

An unintended consequence of the away goals rule (discouraging home teams from attacking in the first leg) appears to be central to the debate. 

With the return of the Champions League knock-out stage this week, it has been interesting to observe teams in action. PSG, Sporting Lisbon, RB Salzburg and Inter Milan all played at home. There was no longer a fear of conceding an "away goal".

While Real Madrid were held scoreless by PSG, the other three away teams (Manchester City, Bayern Munich and Liverpool) all scored at least once. However, these are no longer as valuable as before. This brings in another possible unintended consequence of the new rule - more penalty shootouts. 

Prior to 2021/22 there were five criteria to decide matches in the knockout stage, up to the Final;

1. Number of goals after two legs.
2. Number of away goals after two legs.
3. Number of goals after two legs and extra time.
4. Number of away goals after two legs and extra time.
5. Penalties.

Penalties could be avoided if either team outperformed their opponent in 1, then 2, then 3 and finally 4.​

UEFA's decision has reduced the list to just three.

1. Number of goals after two legs.
2. Number of goals after two legs and extra time.
3. Penalties.

Now penalties can only be avoided by steps 1 or 2. 

Since 2011/12, there have been just 4 penalty shootouts in the Champions League knockout stage (excluding the Final (just one: Chelsea vs Bayern Munich). 15 ties were decided by away goals. However, under the new rules, these 15 ties will now be decided by penalties.

It will be interesting to see how often the 'spot' will be required in the games ahead. My guess is that it will be more than we have seen before. 

By David Butler

On December 15th I compared COVID positive cases from this season to last in the EPL (here). While the positivity data does not control for the frequency of testing (and note that the dates do not map perfectly by game week, as last season began later), we saw a similar December increase. It took until mid/late January to get control of this last season.

The most recent data would suggest that the wave has passed for 21/22 (see series of weekly positive numbers below). Although the number of positive cases was still greater than last winter – perhaps partly due to additional testing capacity – the clubs seem to have got a hold on the virus.
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I would expect the positivity rate to fall further as we enter the final third of the season. The implication being almost no fixtures should be postponed going forward. Note, it is my understanding that these data are for all staff at clubs, not just players. 

By Robbie Butler
 
I am old enough to recall when former Minister of State for European Affairs and Lord Mayor of Dublin, Gay Mitchell, floated the idea of the 2016 Summer Olympics in Dublin. Yes, the Summer Olympics!

The year was 1992 and Barcelona had just staged a relatively successful Summer Games. Andrew Zimbalist's Circus Maximus provides a lovely summary of this and argues that part of the success of the Games was down to the funding model. The $11.5 billion cost (constant 2000 dollars) was 60% privately funded. Of the 40% that came from public funds, just 5% ($235 million) was sourced from Barcelona's city budget.
 
Mitchell's idea didn't gain much traction and Dublin never entered the race. This was before the start of the heady days of the Celtic Tiger. However, a seed had been planted.
 
By 2000 soccer was the focus. The Football Association of Ireland (FAI) sounded out the Scottish Football Association (SFA), Irish Football Association and Football Association of Wales regarding the possibility of a four-way Celtic bid for Euro 2008.
 
By February 2002 Wales and Northern Ireland had opted not to continue. However, undeterred, the FAI and SFA made public that they intended to make a joint bid to host Euro 2008. Scotland would provide 7 venues and Ireland 3. By December 2002 UEFA’s National Teams Committee had visited all potential host countries and concluded that only four bids had the capability of organising the tournament. The Scotland–Republic of Ireland (joint bid) was not one of them.
 
The failure of this effort was predictable. At the time a story circulated that the UEFA delegation had been brought to three locations in Dublin. The first was a stadium that was to be knocked down and rebuilt (Lansdowne Road). The second was a venue that did not allow association football to be played in at the time (Croke Park). The third was a greenfield site that was to be developed and become the new national stadium (often referred to as the Bertie Bowl after then Taoiseach Bertie Ahern). This was never built.
 
The following year would bring some success with the arrival of the 2003 Special Olympics World Summer Games. These Games were hosted in late June and held largely in Dublin. Further success would arrive in 2006 when Ireland and the K Club arguably held the biggest sporting event to date on these shores - the Ryder Cup.
 
Some compensation for the failed Euro 2008 bid gained when UEFA granted Dublin and the Aviva Stadium the right to host the 2011 Europa League Final. Portuguese club sides Porto and Braga met on the night, with former Manchester United striker Radamel Falcao scoring the winning goal. The Europa League Final will return to Dublin in 2024.
 
While the 2003, 2006 and 2011 events were successful and popular, Ireland was turning its attention to rugby. By summer 2013 it was widely reported that the island was to bid for the 2023 Rugby World Cup. On the back of economic impact estimates of between €600 million and €800 million the public was almost unanimously behind the bid. Such support was mirrored in the Houses of the Oireachtas (parliament). In 2017 the Rugby World Cup Act passed breezed through the Irish parliament. There was hardly a dissenting voice. The few that did raise concerns need not have worried. Despite some optimism in the lead up to the bidding, Ireland was eliminated and finished behind South Africa and the winning bid made by France.
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The country has not been discouraged by failure. The latest international hosting competition Ireland and Cork have entered is the America's Cup. The oldest international competition still operating in any sport may come to Ireland in 2024 if the bid is successful. While not on the scale of the Rugby World Cup, this would be a significant achievement for those behind the bid.
 
And those that hope to host an even bigger event don't have to wait too long. The journey is starting all over again. The joint England-Scotland-Wales-Northern Ireland-Republic of Ireland Euro 2028 bid has been kicked off. While England, and maybe even Scotland, could host this alone, chances of success for Ireland (or more likely Dublin) are higher. Having missed out on Euro 2020 due to Covid, the Irish capital might finally get to host European Championship Finals matches.
 
That said, our record since Gay Mitchell's idea back in 1992, isn't great. I await the outcome in hope (as a football fan) not expectation.

By John Considine

When I think of the economics of racial preferences, I think of Thomas Schelling and his story about his coins and his checkerboard.  To aid his thoughts about the issue, Schelling covered the checkerboard with two types of coins on alternate squares.  The coins happily coexisted.  Or, in the words of economists, there was equilibrium.  Schelling then removed a small number of coins at random.  This “shock” to the system started a process that ended in segregated neighbourhoods.  The process was driven by the preferences of the coins.  Specifically, coins had a preference not to be “surrounded” by coins of an opposite type.  The coins were happy to live in a perfectly mixed neighbourhood but the disturbance to this happy equilibrium produced a dynamic that resulted in a new equilibrium – one of segregated neighbourhoods.
 
In discussing the implications for policy, Schelling argued that “getting ‘over the hump’ from one stable equilibrium to another requires either a large perturbation or concerted action”.  Quotas are one such concerted action.  The Rooney Rule specifies a quota of interview candidates for NFL Head Coaching positions.  Maybe the quotas need to be on the number of actual Head Coaches.
 
Schelling’s analysis started with a checkerboard model and specified preferences.  He traced the logical implication from micro motives to macro outcomes.  The wonders of economic theory and thought experiments.
 
Aggregating micro preferences into macro outcomes can be complicated.  The system of aggregation plays a big role.  Consider the situation where 100 commentators are asked to predict the outcome of the Super Bowl.  (Or collect the predictions from before the Bengals-Chiefs game.)  The sum of individual predictions could give a distorted picture.  If each of the 100 commentators believes that the Rams have a 55% chance of winning the Super Bowl then all 100 will pick the Rams.  Looking at the macro picture one would see a “certainty” with 100/100 votes for the Rams.
 
Could a similar aggregation method be producing the outcome we see at the level of NFL Head Coaches?  Each team gets to pick only one Head Coach at a time.
 
How might a quota work given the dynamics of NFL firing and hiring?  At one stage last month there were eight vacancies.  If we were in a happy equilibrium, like Schelling’s coins before the “shock”, then we could require similar replacements to those being replaced.  Allow the owners of the eight NFL teams get together and agree the hires between them.  If they could not agree then get them to select a panel of eight coaches from which their next hire would be determined by lottery.
 
Unfortunately, the current situation does not seem to be a happy one.  How might the transition to such a happy equilibrium happen?  Here we might use the thinking behind the “Save More Tomorrow” concept.  That idea arose where individuals said that they were not saving enough but that they could not make savings at the moment.  These individuals signed up to a commitment to save a greater proportion of any income increase that they would receive in the future.  Back to our eight vacant NFL positions.  In the transition period, a greater proportion of these could be designated for minority candidates.  Again, the NFL owners could sort it out between themselves in the shadow of the lottery system.
 
Schelling used coins on a game board to educate us on how individual decisions can lead to less desirable collective outcomes.  He noted that our preferences could be driven by conscious or unconscious desires.  Our school football coach also used coins to educate his players.    He would put coins on a green cloth.  The green surface had the markings of a GAA field on one side.  The coach had made these markings.  On the other side were the original markings of a soccer field.  He used the coins to illustrate the decisions we should be making in given scenarios.  His words were all reason and rationalization.  However, he used the coins to feed our unconscious biases.  We were always the bigger, more valuable, silver coins.  Sometimes the unconscious can have a bigger impact unless explicitly guarded against.  Therefore, a conscious commitment by the NFL to a quota for hires rather than interviews might be a good idea.

By David Butler

Senegal won 4-2 on penalties last night with Liverpool’s Sadio Mane firing home the winner.  I was surprised though that Mo Salah didn’t step up earlier in the shootout. Like Mane, he was probably down for the fifth penalty for Egypt. Salah had scored the fifth penalty earlier in the tournament to knock out Ivory Coast.

The argument for holding Mo back is that star players might be able to cope with the pressure a little better going latter when it could be effectively in a sudden death scenario. This is a risky strategy however, as we saw last night.

But how much of a risk?

Going back through the previous African Cup of Nations finals since the competition expanded to 12 teams in 1992, there has been 32 penalty shootouts in the knockout rounds. 13 of these (40%) did not reach the tenth penalty. On first inspection, the odds were in Mo's favour but not greatly. 

However, only 6 of these previous shootouts were finals. In these 6 final matches only 1 shootout ended before the 10th spot kick. Ironically, Egypt won 5-4 in 2006 even though Ivory Coast sent Drogba up first! From scanning the data it seems that shoot outs in the final seem to go on longer when compared to earlier rounds.

By Robbie Butler

Nearly two years ago Sean O'Conaill wrote this piece about Irish players signings for British clubs post-Brexit. It specifically says "UK clubs will be locked out of signing Irish players until they are 18."

Yesterday, Irish U17 player Cathal Heffernan signed for AC Milan. Heffernan has joined a growing list of Irish players that play outside of Ireland or Great Britain. The list of clubs that now have Irish underage players includes Villarreal, Bordeaux, Wolfsburg, Schalke 04 and AC Milan's fierce rivals Inter Milan. Rewinding only a short number of years, and it would have been almost unheard of that a young Irish player would sign for a top European club outside of England or Scotland. 

As evidence would suggest, this can only be beneficial to the Republic of Ireland senior team and might mean better days are ahead. This is also a significant change to how Irish players were traditionally developed. For 100 years or more, the best players were exported to the UK and developed at club-level. The Irish national team's success was then largely a consequence of the ability of English clubs to train and coach their players. 

Brexit must be one of the reasons for this change. Given that the vast majority of players that play professional football are signed with full-time professional clubs before the age of 18, the inability of English clubs to import from Ireland, until a player turns 18 years of age, places them at a distinct disadvantage.

​Should the current rules remain in place, it is likely that a growing number of Irish players will move to other Europe countries and top European leagues rather than the traditional routes to the top offered in England and Scotland.