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xG's So Far in the EPL

10/4/2020

 
By David Butler

​Expected Goals (xG) is measure that considers a team’s efforts on goal relative to the difficulty of the chance created.  Lots of information on a given shot (player positioning, distance from goal,  angles, body-part used etc.) is plugged into a statistical model which in turn produces the xG stat. High xG generally transfers to more dangerous chance creation – it might be considered as a measure of threat. 

​The first table shows the xG table for the Premier League season so far using the publically available xG statistics (understat.com) ordered by total xG.

As expected, there's a correlation between xG's and actual goals scored but this is not perfect. For example, the correlation coefficient for for Home xG and home goals so far this season is .60. (and .62 for away xG and goals). 

Team/Stat

Home xG

Away xG

Total xG

Manchester City

34.71

38.37

73.08

Liverpool

35.21

25.81

61.02

Chelsea

33.23

22.69

55.92

Manchester United

28.07

20.99

49.06

Leicester City

22.28

25.47

47.75

Everton

23.43

23.17

46.6

Wolves

22.67

21.81

44.48

Southampton

20.19

20.88

41.07

Burnley

25.83

14.56

40.39

Tottenham Hotspur

20.49

19.12

39.61

Brighton & Hove Albion

20.13

18.88

39.01

Arsenal

22.14

16.28

38.42

Watford

23.77

13.34

37.11

Sheffield United

22.66

13.33

35.99

West Ham United

19.99

14.97

34.96

Aston Villa

17.96

16.85

34.81

AFC Bournemouth

18.75

15.47

34.22

Norwich City

15.61

16.71

32.32

Crystal Palace

14.72

13.75

28.47

Newcastle United

13.48

12.41

25.89

 

The next tables consider xG (home and away) in light of actual goals scored.  My understanding of xG is that having an xG that is lower than goals translates to better than expected performance - clinical finishing perhaps. Chelsea are interesting, they are the poorest relative to expectations at home but the best on the road. 

Team/Stat

Home xG

H Goals

Home Diff

Leicester City

22.28

30

7.72

Tottenham Hotspur

20.49

27

6.51

Liverpool

35.21

40

4.79

Arsenal

22.14

26

3.86

Norwich City

15.61

19

3.39

West Ham United

19.99

23

3.01

Manchester United

28.07

29

0.93

Aston Villa

17.96

18

0.04

Newcastle United

13.48

12

-1.48

Wolves

22.67

21

-1.67

AFC Bournemouth

18.75

17

-1.75

Crystal Palace

14.72

12

-2.72

Brighton & Hove Albion

20.13

17

-3.13

Manchester City

34.71

31

-3.71

Southampton

20.19

16

-4.19

Everton

23.43

19

-4.43

Sheffield United

22.66

17

-5.66

Burnley

25.83

20

-5.83

Watford

23.77

16

-7.77

Chelsea

33.23

22

-11.23

 

Team/Stat

Away xG

A Goals

Away Diff

Chelsea

22.69

28

5.31

Crystal Palace

13.75

19

5.25

Leicester City

25.47

28

2.53

Tottenham Hotspur

19.12

20

0.88

Newcastle United

12.41

13

0.59

Liverpool

25.81

26

0.19

Sheffield United

13.33

13

-0.33

Burnley

14.56

14

-0.56

Aston Villa

16.85

16

-0.85

West Ham United

14.97

14

-0.97

Wolverhampton Wanderers

21.81

20

-1.81

Southampton

20.88

19

-1.88

Arsenal

16.28

14

-2.28

Watford

13.34

11

-2.34

Manchester City

38.37

35

-3.37

AFC Bournemouth

15.47

12

-3.47

Brighton & Hove Albion

18.88

15

-3.88

Everton

23.17

18

-5.17

Manchester United

20.99

15

-5.99

Norwich City

16.71

6

-10.71

 

​The last table considers the total – Leicester's excellent season shines through. Not only do they have a relatively high xG but also have an xG that is lower than their total goal count. Man City’s position is also interesting – Liverpool and other challengers beware, this may just be an unlucky season for City.

Team/Stat

Total xG

Total Goals

Total Diff

Leicester City

47.75

58

10.25

Tottenham Hotspur

39.61

47

7.39

Liverpool

61.02

66

4.98

Crystal Palace

28.47

31

2.53

West Ham United

34.96

37

2.04

Arsenal

38.42

40

1.58

Aston Villa

34.81

34

-0.81

Newcastle United

25.89

25

-0.89

Wolverhampton Wanderers

44.48

41

-3.48

Manchester United

49.06

44

-5.06

AFC Bournemouth

34.22

29

-5.22

Chelsea

55.92

50

-5.92

Sheffield United

35.99

30

-5.99

Southampton

41.07

35

-6.07

Burnley

40.39

34

-6.39

Brighton & Hove Albion

39.01

32

-7.01

Manchester City

73.08

66

-7.08

Norwich City

32.32

25

-7.32

Everton

46.6

37

-9.6

Watford

37.11

27

-10.11

 


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