By Robbie Butler
At the start of the year I had an entry about the ever-expanding World Cup Finals and attempted to put some logic behind FIFA's plans to increase the number of teams at the Finals in 2026.
Prior to this weekend's world cup qualifying fixtures, I read a Sky Sports article focusing on the potential of a World Cup without Argentina. Since the weekend, the chances of this have reduced thanks to a Lionel Messi penalty in a 1-0 win over Chile. The current qualifications standings are below.
At the start of the year I had an entry about the ever-expanding World Cup Finals and attempted to put some logic behind FIFA's plans to increase the number of teams at the Finals in 2026.
Prior to this weekend's world cup qualifying fixtures, I read a Sky Sports article focusing on the potential of a World Cup without Argentina. Since the weekend, the chances of this have reduced thanks to a Lionel Messi penalty in a 1-0 win over Chile. The current qualifications standings are below.
Between 4 and 5 teams can qualify from this confederation. In percentage terms, this is far better than any other confederation. For example, if this were the end table, Ecuador could still qualify despite losing five games. No UEFA country could expect to qualify with this loss rate. Even controlling for the number of games played, five defeats in CONMEBOL qualifying would compare to almost 3 defeats in UEFA qualifying. I doubt any European country that loses three games will make a play-off, let alone qualify for the tournament in Russia.
The South America countries have things much more straight-forward, and not just over the European. The table below shows the percentage of countries that have qualified from each confederation since the World Cup
The South America countries have things much more straight-forward, and not just over the European. The table below shows the percentage of countries that have qualified from each confederation since the World Cup
expanded to 32 teams in 1998. European countries have the second highest number of teams qualifying as a percentage of the number of entrants.
The decision to increase the number of teams for further tournaments has been met with much criticism, and raised issues of the quality of teams that could now reach the finals. If 16 additional countries are to be given places, surely Africa, Asia, Oceania and North and Central American countries should be first in the queue. The quality may not improve but the distribution of places will be much closer to a model consistent with a "World Cup".
The decision to increase the number of teams for further tournaments has been met with much criticism, and raised issues of the quality of teams that could now reach the finals. If 16 additional countries are to be given places, surely Africa, Asia, Oceania and North and Central American countries should be first in the queue. The quality may not improve but the distribution of places will be much closer to a model consistent with a "World Cup".
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