By Paul O'Sullivan
In a recent post, Robbie Butler referred to how brilliant two-mile hurdler Hurricane Fly won his 19th grade one race in Leopardstown last weekend. For racing fans, another major event last weekend was the return to action of three-mile hurdler Big Buck’s at Cheltenham after a lay-off of over 400 days. Prior to his injury, Big Buck’s had won his previous 18 races, while his starting odds in his previous 15 races had never been greater than 5/6 and was often heavily odds-on. It was not to be a dream comeback, however, as Big Buck’s, who went off as 6/5 favourite, was narrowly beaten into third place by two horses that he would surely have beaten prior to his injury.
Much effort went into analysing the horse’s performance. Some blamed his new jockey, Sam Twiston-Davies, for taking the lead too soon. Others blamed the heavy ground combined with the long lay-off for Big Buck’s not storming up the Cheltenham hill in his usual style. Whatever the reason, the effect has been to see his odds for the World Hurdle in Cheltenham in March, a race he has previously won four times, be as high as 9/4 with Paddy Power, while he is trading at 3.15 (equivalent to just under 11/5) on Betfair.
So, should I lump on Big Buck’s given his relatively high odds, or are the odds an accurate reflection of his chances? While I am a follower of national hunt racing, no one will, or should, ever mistake me for an expert on the sport.
I guess it comes down to how one reads his performance last Saturday. To me, it depends on what was the objective of his trainer, Paul Nicholls. If the objective was to win the race, the easiest thing would have been to sit behind the leader and then strike for home when turning into the straight. This may have led to a different result. However, by doing just enough to win the race, Nicholls may not have learned as much about the true condition of the horse. Winning may have suggested that all was well, which may have affected Nicholls’ training plans, and the horse’s true condition may not have been discovered until March, at which point it may have been too late.
On the other hand, Nicholls may have wanted to give Big Buck’s as stern a test as possible, and was prepared to risk losing the race in order to get a better picture of how fit his horse was. Nicholls’ statements after the race (see here) would, on the face of it, seem to back this up. Given his performance, it is to be expected that Big Buck’s will improve for the run and will be in much better condition with another six weeks of preparation. Having said that, if he has no race prior to Cheltenham, fans will be wary of the dreaded ‘bounce’, where a horse returning after a long lay-off
produces a poor second effort following a promising return.
Given how well he travelled for the vast majority of the race, I think odds of 11/5 and 9/4 are very attractive for a horse of Big Buck’s class. An ante-post bet is very likely.
So, should I lump on Big Buck’s given his relatively high odds, or are the odds an accurate reflection of his chances? While I am a follower of national hunt racing, no one will, or should, ever mistake me for an expert on the sport.
I guess it comes down to how one reads his performance last Saturday. To me, it depends on what was the objective of his trainer, Paul Nicholls. If the objective was to win the race, the easiest thing would have been to sit behind the leader and then strike for home when turning into the straight. This may have led to a different result. However, by doing just enough to win the race, Nicholls may not have learned as much about the true condition of the horse. Winning may have suggested that all was well, which may have affected Nicholls’ training plans, and the horse’s true condition may not have been discovered until March, at which point it may have been too late.
On the other hand, Nicholls may have wanted to give Big Buck’s as stern a test as possible, and was prepared to risk losing the race in order to get a better picture of how fit his horse was. Nicholls’ statements after the race (see here) would, on the face of it, seem to back this up. Given his performance, it is to be expected that Big Buck’s will improve for the run and will be in much better condition with another six weeks of preparation. Having said that, if he has no race prior to Cheltenham, fans will be wary of the dreaded ‘bounce’, where a horse returning after a long lay-off
produces a poor second effort following a promising return.
Given how well he travelled for the vast majority of the race, I think odds of 11/5 and 9/4 are very attractive for a horse of Big Buck’s class. An ante-post bet is very likely.
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