What have you done for me lately? Promoted managers under pressure

by Declan Jordan

If reports are to be believed, Ian Holloway is under pressure to keep his job as manager of newly promoted Crystal Palace. Only two games into the Premier League season the owners of the club are apparently lining up alternative managers. The defeat to Bristol City in the Capital One Cup has intensified speculation on his future following losses to Tottenham and Stoke in the League.

Holloway guided the Eagles to the Premier League through the play-offs last season after finishing in fifth place. Since winning promotion tehy have not been big spenders, signing Dwight Gayle for £6 million pounds, Marouanne Chamakh for an undisclosed amount and a handful of other players on free transfers. This signalled that the club was not going to spend a fortune trying to stay in the Premier League. This is always a delicate balancing act and Holloway has been here previously with Blackpool when he failed to keep them in the Premier League after the club followed a similar frugal approach to it's only season in the Premier League. 

The pressure on Holloway now seems to indicate the club owners are more willing to take a punt on survival, though it's unclear why any investment would be more productive with a different manager.

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The pressure on Holloway may indicate an unrealistic assessment of Crystal Palace's chances of doing well or even surviving in the top flight. Since 2005 half of the 8 clubs promoted from the play-offs went back down in the next season. This means Crystal Palace have a 50-50 chance of avoiding the drop.

It does however seem premature to consider changing manager for a promoted club. It would also seem disloyal when Holloway has been so instrumental in getting the club to this position in the first place. An analysis of the recent history of the Premier League's promoted clubs suggests however that promoted clubs are developing a greater tendency to get rid of managers in their first season after promotion. The table below shows the clubs (in bold) that have parted company with their manager within a season after gaining promotion to the Premier League. The clubs highlighted in yellow were those relegated in their first season. 

The table shows that in the last three seasons five of the nine teams promoted changed their managers in their first season, although only one went straight back down. Interestingly three of these came up as Champions and the other two as runners-up. It is more unusual for teams promoted via the play-offs to change manager even though over the period they are marginally more likely to be relegated straight off. Perhaps this is due to a sense of loyalty to the manager that got them there perhaps unexpectedly.

It's more likely to be a hard-nosed business decision. The only manager of a club promoted through the play-offs to retain his job while not avoiding the the drop is Ian Holloway himself. The odds are short on him doing something similar this year.