by Declan Jordan
The current issue of Kyklos has two football related papers - the first of which, on the trade effects of the FIFA World Cup, I posted about recently. The other looks at the effect of entertainment on crime, and more specifically the effect of Uruguayan football matches on the instances of property and assault crimes in Montevideo. The paper, written by Ignacio Munyo of the Business School at the University of Montevideo, contributes to the literature on incapacitation and crime (an open access version appears here). Incapacitation refers to any means of making it impossible to commit an offense by separating criminals from opportunities to commit a crime. It would appear from their analysis that important Uruguayan football matches are quite effective at separating criminals in the capital from opportunities to engage in property crime. Unfortunately, there is some displacement effect as the results show an increase in assaults (including domestic violence - which was the subject of another recent post) before and after these games.
Using data from the Montevideo Police Department from 2002 to 2010, which includes over 835,000 offences, the author finds that during high-importance matches (World Cup and World Cup qualifying matches) there is a reduction of 13 percent in property crimes, after controlling for holidays and weather conditions which have also been found to affect crime levels. There is no evidence of a significant increase in property crime before and after these high-importance matches. However, the matches are associated with a significant and sizeable increase in assaults.
The author suggests the decline in property crime is down to incapacitation , i.e. the criminals take time off to watch the match. However, the increase in concentration of individuals leads to a rise in potentially violent interactions that raises the level of assaults.
It's not clear from the paper whether Luiz Suarez's handball against Ghana in the 2010 World Cup quarter-final was included in the crime statistics.
Using data from the Montevideo Police Department from 2002 to 2010, which includes over 835,000 offences, the author finds that during high-importance matches (World Cup and World Cup qualifying matches) there is a reduction of 13 percent in property crimes, after controlling for holidays and weather conditions which have also been found to affect crime levels. There is no evidence of a significant increase in property crime before and after these high-importance matches. However, the matches are associated with a significant and sizeable increase in assaults.
The author suggests the decline in property crime is down to incapacitation , i.e. the criminals take time off to watch the match. However, the increase in concentration of individuals leads to a rise in potentially violent interactions that raises the level of assaults.
It's not clear from the paper whether Luiz Suarez's handball against Ghana in the 2010 World Cup quarter-final was included in the crime statistics.
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