Two features are returning to Sporteconomics.org for the forthcoming season – our ‘beat the bookies’ and ‘follow the pundit’ section. Both can be accessed under the ‘More’ tab.
In the case of the former, Ed Valentine from OPTA thinks about using his information to beat the bookies on the football pitch. In a similar vein to the horse racing festivals over the years, Ed aims to win ‘fantasy’ money by selecting teams before every game week across the EPL, Serie A, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and La Liga and calculating the best strategy by which to go about placing bets on them. In contrast to last year, this season's 'beat the bookies' will not be constrained by betting rules or the teams that must be selected. Essentially, it is Ed (the analyst) Vs. Paddy (the bookie)!
For the latter, I will provide regular updates regarding the success of pundits as they systematically predict Premier League scores – it’s not very often we see media organisations who pundits represent disclose the outcome of their performance (although they are getting slightly better). For the 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 season I recorded the predictions of Sky Sports pundit Paul Merson and BBC pundit Mark Lawrenson for English Premier League matches. The ‘Follow the Pundit!’ section will provides updates on the success of football these ‘experts’ again this year. The data gathered here is part of an ongoing running research project (with John Eakins and Robbie Butler) which concerns score predictions. The work is entitled ‘the mystics and the market’ and will be presented at the European Association of Sports Economics conference next week in Groningen.