By Ed Valentine
This simulation was run on the 29th of December 2018.
Where do you start to pick the highlights of the season so far? A rather unexpected title race has been jet propelled recently as Manchester City fell to unlikely defeats against Crystal Palace and Leicester. The tables looked to have turned in Liverpool’s favour with Origi’s 96th minute winner in the Merseyside Derby in early December, with many after the game comparing it to an Alex Fergusonesque title bearing result. Given the closeness of the contest I decided to run a simulation on the remainder of the season to gain an insight into how the Premier League table could pan out.
Methodology – The simulation was run using data from the 2018/19 season so far. The simulation model ran 200,000 times with the post sim averages for each attribute being captured and presented below. With 19 games remaining (at the time of writing) and all playing all once it seemed an interesting experiment to run.
Liverpool fans would have good reason to believe they will win their first Premier League era title and simulations back this up. The results demonstrate that the Merseysiders will lift the trophy in May, with Spurs finishing 2nd. Surprisingly, Man City are on a trajectory to finish 3rd. The recent defeats to Palace and Leicester have adjusted the model with extra weighting given they were consecutive and recent.
This simulation was run on the 29th of December 2018.
Where do you start to pick the highlights of the season so far? A rather unexpected title race has been jet propelled recently as Manchester City fell to unlikely defeats against Crystal Palace and Leicester. The tables looked to have turned in Liverpool’s favour with Origi’s 96th minute winner in the Merseyside Derby in early December, with many after the game comparing it to an Alex Fergusonesque title bearing result. Given the closeness of the contest I decided to run a simulation on the remainder of the season to gain an insight into how the Premier League table could pan out.
Methodology – The simulation was run using data from the 2018/19 season so far. The simulation model ran 200,000 times with the post sim averages for each attribute being captured and presented below. With 19 games remaining (at the time of writing) and all playing all once it seemed an interesting experiment to run.
Liverpool fans would have good reason to believe they will win their first Premier League era title and simulations back this up. The results demonstrate that the Merseysiders will lift the trophy in May, with Spurs finishing 2nd. Surprisingly, Man City are on a trajectory to finish 3rd. The recent defeats to Palace and Leicester have adjusted the model with extra weighting given they were consecutive and recent.
There are limitations of course. The model was run before City's win over Liverpool. Transfer activity in January, and managerial sackings with lower placed clubs, will also have a bearing which cannot be accurately captured in the model. It is unlikely Man City will lose 2 on the bounce again to significantly weaker opposition.
There are 6 clubs predicted to finish the season under 40 points – this has never happened in the Premier League era. It is expected that these will shift after a secondary simulation after 26 matches.
There are 6 clubs predicted to finish the season under 40 points – this has never happened in the Premier League era. It is expected that these will shift after a secondary simulation after 26 matches.
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