By Robbie Butler
The race for the "Top 4" in the Premier League all but ended at the weekend. I have read a number of pieces about the race for 4th, and the recent failure of Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea or Manchester United to recently perform as expected. While Arsenal could still catch Tottenham it would take a three point and 9 goal swing on the last day for this to happen.
Although none of the four are playing particularly well at present, it would be wrong to deduce that the the race for the Top 4 this season is dramatically different to recent times. The form table for the past 5 games has Spurs 13th, Man United 15th and Arsenal 16th but the total number of points accrued after 37 games is not unlike most seasons over the past decade. The figure below presents the total number of points collected by the 4th placed team since 2009/10, and the minimum number required to finish 4th (assume better goal difference).
The race for the "Top 4" in the Premier League all but ended at the weekend. I have read a number of pieces about the race for 4th, and the recent failure of Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea or Manchester United to recently perform as expected. While Arsenal could still catch Tottenham it would take a three point and 9 goal swing on the last day for this to happen.
Although none of the four are playing particularly well at present, it would be wrong to deduce that the the race for the Top 4 this season is dramatically different to recent times. The form table for the past 5 games has Spurs 13th, Man United 15th and Arsenal 16th but the total number of points accrued after 37 games is not unlike most seasons over the past decade. The figure below presents the total number of points collected by the 4th placed team since 2009/10, and the minimum number required to finish 4th (assume better goal difference).
If 40 is the magic number to stay up (and this may have gotten even lower over recent history), 70 is generally good enough to make the Champions League. Spurs (or Arsenal) could finish 4th with 70 points. 72 (twice) and 75 points were needed in 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2016/17. Spurs are somewhat different given the number of games they have lost. 10 defeats is generally enough to rule out the Champions League. The North London club have lost 13 games but will still probably finish 4th. A single draw all season is the reason they have been able to carry such a heavy loss rate.
While the past 5 games have not seen the clubs racing for 4th at their best, their totals at the end of the season will look well in years to come. Whoever finishes 4th will certainly have earned the right to player in Europe's top club competition next season.
While the past 5 games have not seen the clubs racing for 4th at their best, their totals at the end of the season will look well in years to come. Whoever finishes 4th will certainly have earned the right to player in Europe's top club competition next season.
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