The Economics of Sport
  • Sports Economics
  • About
  • Workshop
  • Selected Publications
  • Book Reviews
  • A Primer on Gaelic Games
  • Upcoming Events
  • Media
  • Education
  • Resources & Links
  • Data

The Europa Cup Hangover - One for the Myth List?

14/11/2014

 

By David Butler

Not for the first time this year the media has referred to Tottenham’s ‘Europa League hangover‘ as a cause of their poor domestic form. This week the Independent in England reported that this was "their fourth defeat at home this season in the league, with each failure coming after they have played in the Europa League midweek".

The theory goes that playing on a Thursday evening in the Europa League gives teams only a limited recovery time for a Sunday fixture and that a long journey back to England from remote European destinations can cause fatigue. So does playing in the Europa League cause poor domestic performance? 

I collected data since the beginning of the Europa League competition in the 09-10 season for English teams that reached the group stages. Since the 09-10 season nine English clubs have played in the group stages of the competition; Tottenham, Manchester City, Fulham, Everton, Birmingham, Liverpool, Newcastle, Swansea and Stoke. Others have entered the competition but have failed to qualify for the group stages. English clubs have played 86 group stage matches to date. I also collected data on the 86 Premier League matches for these clubs for the Sunday after their Thursday European match (for the group stages only). I had to drop 10 observations from the sample as the teams competing in Europe played each other the following Sunday once and nine other times they didn’t play on the Sunday and had a longer rest period to their next domestic match. This left 76 matches that had a constant time gap between the Europa League and a domestic match.

As the pie-chart below shows, the clubs in the Europa League group stages have actually won more domestic matches following a Thursday night match than they have lost. There has been 33 wins, 28 loses and 15 draws on the following Sunday. The chart also breaks this down for matches played after home and away Europa League encounters. Interestingly, clubs have won more matches domestically having played away on a Thursday night than they have when they played at home. There may not be much in the ‘travel effect’ hypothesis.

While I only look at results after group stage matches and don’t control for the difficulty of a fixture or rotating squads, the moderate sample allows some insight to the ‘hangover’ phenomenon.   

Picture

As Tottenham have played in the competition over the last four seasons they provide an interesting case. In the 2011-2012 season Tottenham actually collected maximum points in the six games after their Europa League group stage matches (18), beating the likes of Liverpool and Arsenal on Sundays. The exact opposite of a hangover! In 2012-2013 Tottenham won four of the six Premier League matches and lost two.  In 2013-2014 they won two, drew one and lost three.  This season they have lost all four so far.

Given this past success after Europa League matches one would really have to question the idea of a ‘hangover’ as a cause of Tottenham's home defeats after the Europa Cup this season. While the competition structure has remained constant over four years for the club, their human capital hasn't. 

Why do some leap to the conclusion of a hangover effect?  I think this is a case of an availability bias. We may be taking a mental shortcut, thinking the possibility of Tottenham losing on Sunday is higher simply because recent, and easy to remember, examples of Sunday losses following a Thursday match exist. When all the data is collected the shortcomings off relying on memorable matches becomes apparent.

Next I want to control for the factors mentioned above and I will look at individual teams and their post Thursday night points compared to their total points haul.


Comments are closed.

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013

    About

    This website was founded in July 2013.

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    American Football
    Athletics
    Baseball
    Basketball
    Behavioural Economics
    Boxing
    Broadcasting
    Competitive Balance
    Cricket
    Cycling
    Darts
    David Butler
    Declan Jordan
    Drugs
    Ed Valentine
    Epl
    Esports
    Expenditure
    F1
    Fifa World Cup
    Finances
    Funding
    Gaa
    Gaelic Games
    Gambling
    Game Theory
    Gary Burns
    Geography
    Golf
    Greyhound Racing
    Guest Posts
    Horse Racing
    Impact Studies
    John Considine
    John Eakins
    League Of Ireland
    Location
    Media
    Mls
    Mma
    Olympics
    Participation
    Paul O'Sullivan
    Premier League
    Regulation
    Research
    Robbie Butler
    Rugby
    Simpsonomics
    Snooker
    Soccer
    Spatial Analysis
    Sporting Bodies
    Stephen Brosnan
    Swimming
    Taxation
    Teaching
    Technology
    Tennis
    Transfers
    Uefa
    Ufc
    World Cup
    Wwe

Related

The website is not formally affiliated to any institution and all of the entries represent the personal views and opinions of an individual contributor. The website operates on a not-for-profit basis. For this reason we decline all advertisement opportunities. 

Contact

To contact us email sportseconomics2013@gmail.com or find us on Twitter @SportEcon.