By John Eakins
There has much been much discussion as to the reasons why Cork performed so poorly against Tipperary last weekend. One factor frequently mentioned is the long lay-off that Cork had between the Munster Final and the Semi-Final (5 weeks). From what I have heard the debate seems to be split 50/50 with some saying that it’s too long a period to keep players’ minds focussed while others citing the fact that Kilkenny haven’t been affected to the same degree in previous seasons. The table below might perhaps give some further insight. It details the provincial winners in Munster and Leinster since the introduction of the‘back-door’ in 1997 and the number of weeks between playing the provincial final and the subsequent semi-final or quarter final (quarter finals were introduced in 2005 and lasted for 3 seasons). Those teams highlighted in red are ones who lost their subsequent semi-final or quarter final after playing a provincial final.
In the majority of cases, one of the provincial winners loses their next match (this happened 9 out of the 18 seasons). In 7 out of the 18 seasons, both provincial winners won their next match (although as explained in the footnote to the table, Kilkenny and Waterford lost semi-finals in two of these cases). In 2 out of the 18 seasons, both provincial winners lost their next match (2004 and 2013). So instances where provincial winners lose their next match occur more often than they don’t. There doesn’t appear to be any clear relationship between these figures and the number of week’s lay-off however. Even in 2010, Waterford had a shorter number of weeks compared to Kilkenny (due to a replay against Cork in the Munster final) and still lost their semi-final (to Tipperary).
One interesting statistic from the table which could lead to a working hypothesis is the fact that 5 out of the last 7 Munster hurling winners have lost their subsequent semi-finals. In almost all of these cases, the Munster win was from a team who hadn’t won Munster in a number of years. For example, the 2008 Munster winners, Tipperary won their previous Munster title in 2001. There was a gap of 3 years between Waterford’s win in 2010 and their previous win. When Limerick won in 2013 it was their first Munster win in over 17 years while Cork’s win this year was their first in 8 years. In contrast, in Leinster, Kilkenny won 7 in a row between 2005 and 2011 and never lost their subsequent match that followed. When Dublin won the Leinster title in 2013 for the first time in 52 years they also lost their next match in the semi-final with Cork.
It’s only a hypothesis and there are a number of examples which run counter to it (Cork in 2000, Galway in 2012, Tipperary in 2012) but perhaps the effort that is put in and elation in winning a provincial title (particularly in the ultra-competitive Munster championship) for the first time in a number of years leave teams flat for the next match. This may be exacerbated by the long wait for that match. So perhaps a shorter time period between matches may work but only in tempering the joy of a provincial title and focusing minds on the next task quicker.
One interesting statistic from the table which could lead to a working hypothesis is the fact that 5 out of the last 7 Munster hurling winners have lost their subsequent semi-finals. In almost all of these cases, the Munster win was from a team who hadn’t won Munster in a number of years. For example, the 2008 Munster winners, Tipperary won their previous Munster title in 2001. There was a gap of 3 years between Waterford’s win in 2010 and their previous win. When Limerick won in 2013 it was their first Munster win in over 17 years while Cork’s win this year was their first in 8 years. In contrast, in Leinster, Kilkenny won 7 in a row between 2005 and 2011 and never lost their subsequent match that followed. When Dublin won the Leinster title in 2013 for the first time in 52 years they also lost their next match in the semi-final with Cork.
It’s only a hypothesis and there are a number of examples which run counter to it (Cork in 2000, Galway in 2012, Tipperary in 2012) but perhaps the effort that is put in and elation in winning a provincial title (particularly in the ultra-competitive Munster championship) for the first time in a number of years leave teams flat for the next match. This may be exacerbated by the long wait for that match. So perhaps a shorter time period between matches may work but only in tempering the joy of a provincial title and focusing minds on the next task quicker.
RSS Feed