By John Considine
At the end of normal time in the All-Ireland hurling final it was announced that there would be at least two added minutes. At the end of the two added minutes, with Cork leading by a point, the ball went out of play. Cork fans wanted the referee to blow his whistle to signal the end. However, he played another 30 second and Clare secured an equaliser. The initial ire of the Cork fans subsided and most agreed it was a fair result.
The consensus seems to be that the referee did not have one of his better games. Clare fans believe Shane O’Neill should have been sent off and that the referee gave some easy frees to Cork. Cork fans believe that the Clare defence were too close to the ball on two Cork 20m frees. They also believe that the referee gave Clare a chance to draw the game. Crucially, neither set of supporters believe the referee was biased against their team.
One criticism of Brian Gavin is that he gave Clare a chance to equalise. This ignores the fact that referees tend to act like parents. They tend to balance things out amongst their children by being flexible with the rules. They give everyone a fighting chance – especially those behind. Using research on baseball, Tobias Moskowitz (Professor of Finance, University of Chicago) and Jon Wertheim (writer, Sports Illustrated), confirm that the behaviour of Brian Gavin conformed to officiating behaviour in other sports. Moskowitz & Wertheim use millions of pitches in baseball to test their hypothesis. These are pitches recorded on camera by MLB. Table 1 presents their data.
The consensus seems to be that the referee did not have one of his better games. Clare fans believe Shane O’Neill should have been sent off and that the referee gave some easy frees to Cork. Cork fans believe that the Clare defence were too close to the ball on two Cork 20m frees. They also believe that the referee gave Clare a chance to draw the game. Crucially, neither set of supporters believe the referee was biased against their team.
One criticism of Brian Gavin is that he gave Clare a chance to equalise. This ignores the fact that referees tend to act like parents. They tend to balance things out amongst their children by being flexible with the rules. They give everyone a fighting chance – especially those behind. Using research on baseball, Tobias Moskowitz (Professor of Finance, University of Chicago) and Jon Wertheim (writer, Sports Illustrated), confirm that the behaviour of Brian Gavin conformed to officiating behaviour in other sports. Moskowitz & Wertheim use millions of pitches in baseball to test their hypothesis. These are pitches recorded on camera by MLB. Table 1 presents their data.
On the first pitch the officials call between 83.4% and 98.9% correctly. These are pitches that travel at speeds above 85mph. On the first pitch the batter and the pitcher are tied 0-0. At 0-0 the umpire call 84.9% of pitches in the strike zone correctly. What is revealing about the data presented by Moskowitz & Wertheim is that the umpire tends to favour the guy that is losing on subsequent pitches. When the batter is behind 0-2, the umpire only calls 57.7% of balls that passed through the strike zone correctly. The greater number of umpire “errors” favour the batter. When the pitcher is behind 3-0 the umpire calls 93.1% correctly. The decrease in “errors” from the 84.9% (when the score was 0-0) to 93.1% favours the pitcher.
It is clear that parents and neutral fans are not the only ones that favour the underdog.
It is clear that parents and neutral fans are not the only ones that favour the underdog.
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