The Economics of Sport
  • Sports Economics
  • About
  • Workshop
  • Selected Publications
  • Book Reviews
  • A Primer on Gaelic Games
  • Upcoming Events
  • Media
  • Education
  • Resources & Links
  • Data

Quantifying 2018 FIFA World Cup Performance

10/8/2018

 
By Sean O Connor
​
Designing a methodology to quantify performance can be open to debate. Individuals can have different preferences of what should be more important when measuring how a team has performed. For instance, in a cup competition, should a strong team progressing to a semi-final be seen as performing better than a weaker team progressing to a quarter final, but knocking an extremely strong team out on the way?

Even the official ranking methodology utilised by FIFA to quantify international team performance can be open to criticism, particularly when you read stories about how teams such as Wales were able to rise up the rankings by forgoing friendly games.

Nonetheless, this post attempts to quantify how teams in this summer’s World Cup performed utilising an experimental methodology. The methodology can be summarised as follows.

World Cup performance in a game is based on the following;
  • 3 points are awarded for each win in the group stage and knockout stage.
  • 1 point is given for a draw for both teams.
  • 0.5 points is given if a team is knocked out in penalties in the group stage.
  • Winning the 3rd and 4th place play-off is only worth 2.5 points
  • Winning the final is worth 3.5 points
  • 0 points are given for a loss in 90 minutes in the group or knockout stage.
  • I control for goals scored and conceded.
  • I control for the team and opponents strength by using the FIFA ranking points given out on the June 7th 2018.
The method to calculate a score in a game is as follows;

Points for game i = (((Points in game after final whistle j + (Goals scored – Less Goals conceded)) * (FIFA Ranking of team j – (+/- Difference in FIFA Ranking of Opposition))

Prior to presenting the results here are some examples of calculating scores.

In the opening game of the tournament, Russia beat Egypt 5-0. For the latest FIFA rankings, Russia had 493 points, while Egypt had 465, therefore Russia where 28 points higher than Egypt. Russia’s points accumulated for this game would have been the following;(((3+ (5-0))*(493-28)) Russia would have gained 3,720 points for this game.

For the thrilling 3-3 between Spain and Portugal, Portugal would have accumulated 1,126 points, while Spain would have been given 1,274. The difference for this is that Portugal is considered a stronger side to Spain in the FIFA rankings. The Figure below plots team performance based on the methodology described above.
Picture
The red bars indicate the teams which progressed to the knockout stages, while the blue bars highlight those who left after the group games. According to the methodology adopted here, France and Belgium performed strongest at this World Cup. South Korea performed better than many teams who reached the knockout stages. This high ranking is no doubt due to their clean sheet victory over Germany and the circa 1,000 point difference between the two teams in the FIFA ranking charts.

Like all methodologies’ the metrics generated here has flaws, namely it gives no credit to poor teams who may hold a very good team to a narrow defeat. Moreover, two strong teams drawing or one beating another is has more a less the same impact of two weak teams drawing or beating one another. Similarly, it would be worthwhile to control for a countries population, given how larger countries tend to outperform smaller ones, given the pool of talent they have to choose from. Future posts, may try to account for this, along with control for other factors.   

Comments are closed.

    Archives

    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013

    About

    This website was founded in July 2013.

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    American Football
    Athletics
    Baseball
    Basketball
    Behavioural Economics
    Boxing
    Broadcasting
    Competitive Balance
    Cricket
    Cycling
    Darts
    David Butler
    Declan Jordan
    Drugs
    Ed Valentine
    Epl
    Esports
    Expenditure
    F1
    Fifa World Cup
    Finances
    Funding
    Gaa
    Gaelic Games
    Gambling
    Game Theory
    Gary Burns
    Geography
    Golf
    Greyhound Racing
    Guest Posts
    Horse Racing
    Impact Studies
    John Considine
    John Eakins
    League Of Ireland
    Location
    Media
    Mls
    Mma
    Olympics
    Participation
    Paul O'Sullivan
    Premier League
    Regulation
    Research
    Robbie Butler
    Rugby
    Simpsonomics
    Snooker
    Soccer
    Spatial Analysis
    Sporting Bodies
    Stephen Brosnan
    Swimming
    Taxation
    Teaching
    Technology
    Tennis
    Transfers
    Uefa
    Ufc
    World Cup
    Wwe

Related

The website is not formally affiliated to any institution and all of the entries represent the personal views and opinions of an individual contributor. The website operates on a not-for-profit basis. For this reason we decline all advertisement opportunities. 

Contact

To contact us email sportseconomics2013@gmail.com or find us on Twitter @SportEcon.