In the ‘more’ section of this website I follow the pundit, keeping an eye on the predictive success of two pundits who systematically predict premier league score lines.
After 268 predictions, Paul Merson (Sky Sports) has edged ahead of Mark Lawrenson (BBC). Both are still calling over half of the games correctly and are performing far better than last season. The typical pattern is emerging in terms of successful score line predictions - the pundits usually get one right scoreline per gameweek.
Over the last few months a new pundit for the Championship has come along. Former Southampton and Leeds player David Prutton has taken over from Ian Holloway. Often he also predicts the outcome of League 1 and League 2 games. How has he performed?
Out of 154 lower league prediction Prutton has called 19 correct scorelines (12%) and an additional 51 correct outcomes (33%). Prutton calls over half of the games incorrectly (55%). That's approximately 10% more wrong match predictions when compared to Merson and Lawrenson for this season’s Premier League. The two Premier league pundits are getting between 42%-45% wrong. His most popular predictions are 2-1 (29 observations) and 2-0 (28 observations) – this is probably a naive strategy as matches commonly only have one goal. He only predicts 9 games will end with only one goal scored.
Maybe Merson and Lawro have a greater level of expertise to Prutton…or maybe the outcomes of lower leagues are more challenging to predict.