By David Butler,
Recent posts on this blog have considered the revenue implications of promotion/relegation if leagues are to end early. This is the case for the Scottish lower leagues. The table below shows estimates for average turnout for relegated and promoted Scottish clubs for the top two divisions.
The top half of the table considers the year a team was relegated, their average Premiership attendance and then their average Championship attendance the following season. The second half of the table looks at the promoted clubs average attendance in their year of promotion and subsequent season among the elite.
It's worth noting that Scottish clubs have a relative reliance on gate receipts as a revenue stream in comparison to other sources (broadcasting, commercial etc.) - according to UEFA's recent benchmarking report Scotland tops the lists for percentage of revenue coming from the gate (43%)
Recent posts on this blog have considered the revenue implications of promotion/relegation if leagues are to end early. This is the case for the Scottish lower leagues. The table below shows estimates for average turnout for relegated and promoted Scottish clubs for the top two divisions.
The top half of the table considers the year a team was relegated, their average Premiership attendance and then their average Championship attendance the following season. The second half of the table looks at the promoted clubs average attendance in their year of promotion and subsequent season among the elite.
It's worth noting that Scottish clubs have a relative reliance on gate receipts as a revenue stream in comparison to other sources (broadcasting, commercial etc.) - according to UEFA's recent benchmarking report Scotland tops the lists for percentage of revenue coming from the gate (43%)
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|
Year |
Relegated Club |
Premiership |
Championship |
Change |
|
2018/2019 |
Dundee |
6,024 |
5,505 |
-519 |
|
2017/2018 |
Partick Thistle |
4,721 |
3,043 |
-1,678 |
|
2017/2018 |
Ross County |
4,612 |
3,850 |
-762 |
|
2016/2017 |
Inverness CT |
3,949 |
2,395 |
-1,554 |
|
2015/2016 |
Dundee United |
6,071 |
6,584 |
513 |
|
2014/2015 |
St Mirren |
3,906 |
3,549 |
-357 |
|
2013/2014 |
Hibernian |
10,585 |
10,170 |
-415 |
|
2013/2014 |
Heart OM |
14,183 |
15,985 |
1,802 |
|
Year |
Promoted Club |
Championship |
Premiership |
Change |
|
2018/2019 |
Ross County |
3,850 |
4,664 |
814 |
|
2017/2018 |
Livingston |
1,350 |
3,876 |
2,526 |
|
2017/2018 |
St Mirren |
4,448 |
5,333 |
885 |
|
2016/2017 |
Hibernian |
15,394 |
17,964 |
2,570 |
|
2015/2016 |
Rangers |
45,325 |
48,941 |
3,616 |
|
2014/2015 |
Heart OM |
15,985 |
16,502 |
517 |
There is an expected relationship here. A falloff for relegated clubs and a boost for promoted ones. That said, it is sensitive to specific clubs. It would be interesting to go into greater detail on the strength of these changes, my hunch would be that promotion would have a stronger effect positive effect (than relegation would have negative).
The rises and falls above translate to revenue gains/losses. No doubt it is these types of numbers that will be sought after by sports lawyers arguing either way when it comes to ending seasons as is.
Perhaps the one interesting note is that while Hearts could be the unlucky due to COVID, the last time they were relegated the estimates say their attendance actually increased the following season...
The rises and falls above translate to revenue gains/losses. No doubt it is these types of numbers that will be sought after by sports lawyers arguing either way when it comes to ending seasons as is.
Perhaps the one interesting note is that while Hearts could be the unlucky due to COVID, the last time they were relegated the estimates say their attendance actually increased the following season...
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