The Economics of Sport
  • Sports Economics
  • About
  • Workshop
  • Selected Publications
  • Book Reviews
  • Media
  • A Primer on Gaelic Games
  • Upcoming Events
  • Education
  • Resources & Links
  • Data

*

14/10/2014

 
By David Butler

On the 17th of October 2007 a Kazakh midfielder named Dmitry Byakov did something quite unique. In the last minute of play against Portugal, he scored what was to become the only goal any bottom seeded nation would get against a top seed in qualification stage for the 2008 European Championships.  In 14 matches of top versus bottom and 1260 minutes of play, Byakov was the only footballer to hit the back of the net for any of the minnows.

After sitting through Ireland’s 7-0 thrashing of Gibraltar last weekend and watching both Deirdre McCloskey and Thomas Piketty thoughts on capitalism for the trip home, I got thinking about inequality across European International football.

Sports economists are quick to stress the role of uncertainty in sport. Not knowing an outcome for sure is critical to maintaining competitiveness and vital to the credibility of competitions.  We're commonly reminded of this need in International football contests. Like at the weekend for Ireland, there can be a complete talent mismatch. Great inequalities in ability create a near certain outcome and there is very little competitive balance in once of matches. Handicappers ensure that horse races are fair and boxing disparities can end very quickly. Unlike these sports, the option to constrain one opponent or throw in the towel early doesn't exist in football.

So what does the ‘inequality gap’ look like in European International football? I collected the dataset for European Championship Qualifiers from 1984 to 2012 and analysed the matches between the top seeded team in the group and the bottom seeded team. There were 64 groups and 127 matches in total (an odd number as Albania forfeited a match to Spain in 1992 due to political problems ...and maybe because of their earlier 9-0 thrashing!).

The measure I used to judge inequality is the margin in goals scored across the 180 minutes of play between the top and bottom seeded teams. The usual names crop up as top and bottom seeds. Germany, Italy Spain etc. versus Andorra, San Marino, Malta etc.

The graph of the average margin is below.  The gap between the biggest and the smallest since the 1980’s is on the rise. While the top seed beat the bottom seed by about 4.5 goals on average over the two games in the 1980’s there is approximately a 6.5 goal difference now. The average number of goals these bottom teams score per match since 1984 has never reached one.         
   
There was only one incident in the dataset out of 64 groups when the margin was negative i.e. the bottom seed outscored the top seed over 180 minutes. In the Euro 96' qualification campaign Sweden the top seed were beaten by Turkey  2-1 and also drew 2-2. The greatest margin occurred in the 2012 qualifiers when the Netherlands put 16 goals past San Marino over 180 minutes. 

Ireland twice held the honour of being the top seed.  We did little to increase the inequality gap (unlike last weekend) having a plus 4 margin in 1996 and a plus 1 margin in 2004. The two away fixtures for these ties are the rather infamous draws of 0-0 in Albania and 0-0  in Liechtenstein.

Maybe this gap can explained by the growth of the competition over the years and the entry of many small states around 1992. People have argued to me that these small states need the opportunity to be beaten badly by the best to allow them to learn and subsequently improve. I can understand this point of view. Oppositely this inequality is creating uncompetitive contests, as I'm sure anyone who sat in the Aviva last Saturday would attest. I can equally understand the point of view that’s in favour of a ‘pre-qualification’ round, where there is a barrier to the qualifiers to prevent these almost certain outcomes.
Picture
*This is part 1 of a 3 part series. Part 2 will look at whether there is a 'travel effect' and distinguish between home and away fixtures. Part 3 will discuss the change in the points bottom seeded teams are collecting and ask whether 'learning' occurs. 

Comments are closed.

    Archives

    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013

    About

    This website was founded in July 2013.

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    American Football
    Athletics
    Baseball
    Basketball
    Behavioural Economics
    Boxing
    Broadcasting
    Competitive Balance
    Cricket
    Cycling
    Darts
    David Butler
    Declan Jordan
    Drugs
    Ed Valentine
    Epl
    Expenditure
    F1
    Fifa World Cup
    Finances
    Funding
    Gaa
    Gaelic Games
    Gambling
    Game Theory
    Gary Burns
    Geography
    Golf
    Greyhound Racing
    Guest Posts
    Horse Racing
    Impact Studies
    John Considine
    John Eakins
    League Of Ireland
    Location
    Media
    Mls
    Mma
    Olympics
    Participation
    Paul O'Sullivan
    Premier League
    Regulation
    Research
    Robbie Butler
    Rugby
    Simpsonomics
    Snooker
    Soccer
    Spatial Analysis
    Sporting Bodies
    Stephen Brosnan
    Swimming
    Taxation
    Teaching
    Technology
    Tennis
    Transfers
    Ufc
    World Cup
    Wwe

Related

The website is not formally affiliated to any institution and all of the entries represent the personal views and opinions of an individual contributor. The website operates on a not-for-profit basis. For this reason we decline all advertisement opportunities. 

Contact

To contact us email sportseconomics2013@gmail.com or find us on Twitter @SportEcon.