The Economics of Sport
  • Sports Economics
  • About
  • Workshop
  • Media
  • Selected Publications
  • Book Reviews
  • A Primer on Gaelic Games
  • Upcoming Events
  • Education
  • Resources & Links
  • Data

Munster's "Miracle Match"

8/5/2020

 
By Robbie Butler

The 18th of January 2003. That was the date. Munster versus Gloucester in the final pool game of the 2002-03 Heineken Cup - rugby unions' European Cup. 

For many reasons today, this seems like a lifetime ago. For one thing, the old Thomond Park was packed to the rafters with 12,500 people. No social distancing.

​The tale of the game is one that has never been forgot and demonstrates the power of incentives and the importance of bonuses for increased production (winning and losing bonus points) in today's game. What happened that day is testament to economic theory and has gone down in Munster folklore as the "Miracle Match". 

​Going into the final game Pool 2 looked like this. 
Picture
With Perpignan set to face Italian side Arix Viadana, it was accepted that Munster would have to beat the brilliant English side Gloucester to have any chance of progressing. If both of these things happen, all three teams would then end up on 8 points. 

Munster remarkably won the game 33-6, scoring four tries in the process. A winning margin of 27 thanks to Ronan O’Gara’s last second conversion. So too did Perpignan, meaning a three-way tie at the top. Munster's winning margin and method are crucial in the miracle. Here is why.

Before kick-off Munster knew that they would need at least a 27 point winning margin AND four tries to progress. This was a time before bonus points so no extra point was given for scoring four. There are a number of interesting article online that overview the match, and the winning combination needed for this miracle to happen, but none that I could find explained why this was needed. 

I was lucky enough to have a contact to a player that played a starring role for Munster on the day. He admitted to knowing what was needed (27 points winning margin and 4 tries) but not knowing why. With his help and those in Munster Rugby I was guided towards the tie-breaking rules. I could figure out the rest.

So here is why the Munster Miracle was a minimum margin of 27 points and at least 4 tries.
The rules dictated that in the event of a three-way tie like this, the next criteria used to separate the teams would not be points difference but tries scored. And not just tries scored, but tries scored excluding the games against the Italian team. 

Before the final pool game, head to head tries scored read:
 
Tries Scored (Before Last Game)
Perpignan = 10
​Munster = 5
Gloucester = 9
 
With Gloucester on 9, this is why Munster needed at least 4 tries. If Gloucester were to score a try in the game against Munster, the Irish team would have needed 5 tries in that game (total of 10). This of course would have had them level with Perpignan, with the French club stuck on 10.

Munster managed to get 4 tries which got them level with Gloucester, as the English club were held try-less. So, at the end of the final pool game, with all three teams on 8 points, the criteria for tie-breaker (Head-to-Head tries scored) read:
 
Tries Scored (After Last Game)
Perpignan = 10
Munster = 9
Gloucester = 9

As a result, Perpignan topped the Pool and qualified for the knock-out stages. This was not the end for Munster, as they could be one of the two best second placed teams to qualify from the pool stages. This was decided by points difference across all six pools.
 
To separate Munster and Gloucester, tie-breaker criteria two was Head-to-Head on points difference, but across all three teams. Before the last Pool game this read:
Picture
With Munster on -25 and Gloucester on +28, the Irish side were 53 worse off going into the last game or -26.5 when you consider a score for Munster is subtracted from Gloucester. This is why there was a need for a 27 winning margin. This then looked afterwards:
Picture
Munster were +2, and Gloucester +1. In the seconds before Ronan O'Gara's last minute conversion, Munster were 0 and Gloucester +3. That famous kick saw a 4-point swing and was enough for Munster to progress.

Interestingly, Perpignan were -3 and lucky Head-to-Head Tries Scored was the first criteria! In fact, any Munster win with 5 tries would have been enough to secure at least 2nd (even a one point win) so long as Gloucester didn’t score a try.  

Thankfully, the introduction of bonus points in the 2003/4 competition means the complications associated with Munster's "Miracle Match" is unlikely to be repeated. 

Comments are closed.

    Archives

    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013

    About

    This website was founded in July 2013.

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    American Football
    Athletics
    Baseball
    Basketball
    Behavioural Economics
    Boxing
    Broadcasting
    Competitive Balance
    Cricket
    Cycling
    Darts
    David Butler
    Declan Jordan
    Drugs
    Ed Valentine
    Epl
    Expenditure
    F1
    Fifa World Cup
    Finances
    Funding
    Gaa
    Gaelic Games
    Gambling
    Game Theory
    Gary Burns
    Geography
    Golf
    Greyhound Racing
    Guest Posts
    Horse Racing
    Impact Studies
    John Considine
    John Eakins
    League Of Ireland
    Location
    Media
    Mls
    Mma
    Olympics
    Participation
    Paul O'Sullivan
    Premier League
    Regulation
    Research
    Robbie Butler
    Rugby
    Simpsonomics
    Snooker
    Soccer
    Spatial Analysis
    Sporting Bodies
    Stephen Brosnan
    Swimming
    Taxation
    Teaching
    Technology
    Tennis
    Transfers
    Uefa
    Ufc
    World Cup
    Wwe

Related

The website is not formally affiliated to any institution and all of the entries represent the personal views and opinions of an individual contributor. The website operates on a not-for-profit basis. For this reason we decline all advertisement opportunities. 

Contact

To contact us email sportseconomics2013@gmail.com or find us on Twitter @SportEcon.