by Declan Jordan
Great minds think alike. Following on from John Eakins' post on whether better offensive teams or defensive teams win leagues, this post looks at the experience in Ireland. The table below shows the number and percentage of seasons from 1953 to 2013 when the champions were the team that scored most goals, the team that conceded fewest goals and the team with the best goal difference. Overall the analysis shows that a club's chances of winning the league are greater where they have the more stingy defence compared to those with more profligate strikers. It appears defences do win leagues. Of course the best predictor of who will succeed is a combination of both strong defence and attack. Clubs with the best goal difference have won the league just over 70% of the time in the last 60 years.
The Irish data also allows an extra dimension to be considered. Prior to 1977 when clubs were level on points, league position was determined by goals average. Since then it has bee goal difference. This may create different incentives for clubs. While the objective has remained to win games to achieve maximum points, there is also a consideration that, prior to 1977, it was important to score as many goals as possible. Since then, to go after more goals has to be balanced with the need to avoid conceding. The data has been split between pre and post 1977. It can be seen that, contrary to what may be expected, teams with the most goals won the league on fewer occasions before 1977. Fewer goals conceded was a stronger predictor of success. A previous post showed that the number of goals per game has declined in the League of Ireland over the same period. Perhaps the cavalier attitude of clubs in that period meant that more clubs were high goalscoring teams and the chances of the top team being the top scoring team is subsequently lower.
The Irish data also allows an extra dimension to be considered. Prior to 1977 when clubs were level on points, league position was determined by goals average. Since then it has bee goal difference. This may create different incentives for clubs. While the objective has remained to win games to achieve maximum points, there is also a consideration that, prior to 1977, it was important to score as many goals as possible. Since then, to go after more goals has to be balanced with the need to avoid conceding. The data has been split between pre and post 1977. It can be seen that, contrary to what may be expected, teams with the most goals won the league on fewer occasions before 1977. Fewer goals conceded was a stronger predictor of success. A previous post showed that the number of goals per game has declined in the League of Ireland over the same period. Perhaps the cavalier attitude of clubs in that period meant that more clubs were high goalscoring teams and the chances of the top team being the top scoring team is subsequently lower.
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