By John Eakins
This just goes to show why New Zealand are the best rugby team in the world – their attention to detail. Ken Quarrie who works as an analyst for New Zealand rugby has carried out research on the goal kicking performance of international rugby players using data from 582 international rugby matches played between 2002 to 2011. The research is about to be published in the Journal of Science and Medicine in Sport (February 2014 see here).
I first noticed this on the score.ie and you can read what they think of the research (here). They also provide a link to the rankings spreadsheet on the All Blacks’ official website but for convenience it can be found (here). Quarrie first ranks goal kickers based on their percentage success rate (a raw rank) and then adjusts this ranking (modelled rank) for factors that include kick distance, kick angle, a rating of the importance of each kick and venue-related conditions. Based on this modelled rank the top three goal kickers over the period 2001 to 2011 are Morne Steyn (South Africa), Federico Todeschini (Argentina) and Dan Carter (New Zealand). From an Irish point of view, David Humphreys is the top ranked Irish goal kicker (15th) followed by Ronan O’Gara (34th), Paddy Wallace (39th) and Jonny Sexton (90th). O’Gara was the second best ranked goal kicker in 2010 and 2011. What is interesting is that apart from Morne Steyn (who it appears stands head and shoulders above everybody else with an adjusted success rate of 87%), there is not too much difference in the goal kicking performance of say the top 50 players. Todeschini has an adjusted success rate of 80% while Gavin Williams (Samoa) in 50th place has an adjusted success rate of 73%. So as expected not much separates the top goal kickers at international level.
Quarrie also provides what he calls an importance ranking which ranks the goals kickers solely on the success rate for kicks under pressure. He defines an important kick as one that is likely to reflect affect the outcome of the match. Specifically, the score difference at the time of the kick and the time remaining in the match are used to measure the overall kick importance. Based on this ranking the top three goal kickers are James O Connor (Australia), Morne Steyn (South Africa) and Stirling Mortlock (Australia). Ronan O’Gara (39th) is now the most highly ranked Irish player followed by Jonny Sexton (42nd), then Paddy Wallace (51st) and finally David Humphreys (86th). A lot of reports picked up on this ranking but again it is important to note that the difference in the success rates on these kicks under pressure across all the kickers in the sample is not great. So while David Humphreys is ranked 86th, his actual success rate on pressure kicks is 71% compared to James O Connor at 76%.
One final interesting titbit from the research is the fact that over the matches studied, goal kicks comprised 45% of the total points scored, with penalties accounting for 29% and conversions 15%. This can be compared to 53% of scores that come from tries, and 2% that come from drop goals. This in itself highlights the important of the goal kicker in modern day international rugby.
Quarrie also provides what he calls an importance ranking which ranks the goals kickers solely on the success rate for kicks under pressure. He defines an important kick as one that is likely to reflect affect the outcome of the match. Specifically, the score difference at the time of the kick and the time remaining in the match are used to measure the overall kick importance. Based on this ranking the top three goal kickers are James O Connor (Australia), Morne Steyn (South Africa) and Stirling Mortlock (Australia). Ronan O’Gara (39th) is now the most highly ranked Irish player followed by Jonny Sexton (42nd), then Paddy Wallace (51st) and finally David Humphreys (86th). A lot of reports picked up on this ranking but again it is important to note that the difference in the success rates on these kicks under pressure across all the kickers in the sample is not great. So while David Humphreys is ranked 86th, his actual success rate on pressure kicks is 71% compared to James O Connor at 76%.
One final interesting titbit from the research is the fact that over the matches studied, goal kicks comprised 45% of the total points scored, with penalties accounting for 29% and conversions 15%. This can be compared to 53% of scores that come from tries, and 2% that come from drop goals. This in itself highlights the important of the goal kicker in modern day international rugby.
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