By John Considine
It seems to me that sports pundits verbally lash out when their predictions are wide of the mark. They defend their judgements. They explain how the team management got it wrong. Or the players did not execute the team plan properly. The possibility that they got it wrong is rarely considered. When their predictions go to plan they sit a little more smugly in their seats. It is all part of the entertainment. However, there can be a darker side to sports predictions going wrong.
In 2011 David Card and Gordon Dahl had a paper published in the prestigious Quarterly Journal of Economics. The paper was titled “Family Violence and Football”. What Card & Dahl found was that, during the American football season, domestic violence increased when a team lost unexpectedly. Expected losses did not trigger an increase in violence.
Card & Dahl also found that there were other things that explained increases in domestic violence. An increase in temperature and holidays contributed to domestic violence. These were of less interest to the authors as they were more concerned with emotional cues. Another emotional cue examined by Card & Dahl was the important of the game. They found that the more important the game the greater level of domestic violence.
This year the Card & Dahl hypothesis was tested with data from Glasgow. The research was conducted by three people from the University of Strathclyde. Like their US counterparts, Alex Dickson, Colin Jennings and Gary Koop found that significant increases in domestic violence in holiday periods, i.e. around the Christmas and New Year period.
Card & Dahl also found that there were other things that explained increases in domestic violence. An increase in temperature and holidays contributed to domestic violence. These were of less interest to the authors as they were more concerned with emotional cues. Another emotional cue examined by Card & Dahl was the important of the game. They found that the more important the game the greater level of domestic violence.
This year the Card & Dahl hypothesis was tested with data from Glasgow. The research was conducted by three people from the University of Strathclyde. Like their US counterparts, Alex Dickson, Colin Jennings and Gary Koop found that significant increases in domestic violence in holiday periods, i.e. around the Christmas and New Year period.
They found little statistical evidence of an impact from unexpected losses except in some games close to the end of season. However, they did find evidence in support of another emotional cue. Alex Dickson, Colin Jennings and Gary
Koop found that Old Firm games (between rivals Celtic and Rangers) increased domestic violence between 28% and 41% depending on the outcome. These games “mattered” to the supporters. Unfortunately, they also “mattered” to their family members.
Dickson, Jennings & Koop end their paper with the hope that Rangers' relegation to the lowest division in Scottish football, for financial irregularities, will allow the authorities time to somehow put in place a plan to deal with future Old Firm games. Agreed.
Koop found that Old Firm games (between rivals Celtic and Rangers) increased domestic violence between 28% and 41% depending on the outcome. These games “mattered” to the supporters. Unfortunately, they also “mattered” to their family members.
Dickson, Jennings & Koop end their paper with the hope that Rangers' relegation to the lowest division in Scottish football, for financial irregularities, will allow the authorities time to somehow put in place a plan to deal with future Old Firm games. Agreed.
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