By Ed Valentine
Among the many rule changes for the 2014 F1 season is the decision to award double points for the final race of the 19 round championship. The idea, put forward in a response to Red Bull’s dominance over the last four years, is intended to give a greater chance for the driver’s championship to remain undecided heading into the final weekend in the hope of retaining TV audiences for the entire duration of the calendar.
The FIA have thrown a dart rather than attempting to find a credible solution but claim that the alteration to the points on offer for the final GP would “maximise focus on the championship until the end of the campaign”. Only three of the previous 20 championships would have had a different outcome had the double points rule been in force. One of Schumacher’s seven titles and one of Vettel’s four would have ended up going to another driver but hindsight doesn’t count in this scenario as the rules were the rules on those days in history.
By attempting to make the final race a prized commodity there are a number of unintended consequences and perverse incentives which may result.
Among the many rule changes for the 2014 F1 season is the decision to award double points for the final race of the 19 round championship. The idea, put forward in a response to Red Bull’s dominance over the last four years, is intended to give a greater chance for the driver’s championship to remain undecided heading into the final weekend in the hope of retaining TV audiences for the entire duration of the calendar.
The FIA have thrown a dart rather than attempting to find a credible solution but claim that the alteration to the points on offer for the final GP would “maximise focus on the championship until the end of the campaign”. Only three of the previous 20 championships would have had a different outcome had the double points rule been in force. One of Schumacher’s seven titles and one of Vettel’s four would have ended up going to another driver but hindsight doesn’t count in this scenario as the rules were the rules on those days in history.
By attempting to make the final race a prized commodity there are a number of unintended consequences and perverse incentives which may result.
As F1 teams, like all rational economic agents respond to costs, benefits and incentives a change in the approach to the championship from those lower down the rankings is likely to take place. 53 points separated the 7th and 11th placed teams going into the final round of the 2013 championship. With 86 points on offer for a one two finish instead of 43 the smaller teams will almost certainly alter their design process and pour resources into a specific chassis construction for the Abu Dhabi circuit in order to secure those points. This will heavily compromise their competitiveness in the preceding 18 rounds of the championship. Although it is unlikely for the minnows of Williams and Caterham to be tussling for a podium finish there is a high value in creating a 1 race championship as the difference between 8th and 11th place in the standings could be as much as $35 million.
The new regulations state that engines and gear boxes must last 4,000km before being replaced. If there is a mechanical failure a team can make a change but cannot replace a unit if they want fresh equipment without taking a penalty. This essentially means that the smaller teams will keep 1 unused gear box and engine per car in order to limit the risks of mechanical failure going into Abu Dhabi. Everyone finishing outside the points scoring positions for the penultimate race in Brazilwill register a DNF in order to take a penalty free gear box and engine change. Some drivers running well inside the top 10 may also forsake their points finish if they feel there is a chance of scoring more than double that amount in the last race. We may see only four or five finishers. Honda F1 received a reprimand in 2005 for purposely “retiring” Jenson Button on the last lap in Australia in order to take a free engine change as they felt they had a chance of winning the following GP. If Button had crossed the line and not registered a DNF then a 10 place grid penalty would have been awarded for the next race had they elected to maximise their chances with a fresh engine.
The new engine and power-train rules are likely to cause a shakeup in the pecking order. Until the lights go out in Melbourne nobody will truly know where each team stands. This coupled with the certainty of engine reliability issues (some teams, Red Bull included, have voiced concern over engine reliability across the entire season) means there is a strong chance that the wrong driver could win the championship from external circumstances arising
from the double points scenario during the final race.
It has not been a popular idea with the teams or most purists but for the upcoming F1 season the FIA’s dart will keep double top!
The new engine and power-train rules are likely to cause a shakeup in the pecking order. Until the lights go out in Melbourne nobody will truly know where each team stands. This coupled with the certainty of engine reliability issues (some teams, Red Bull included, have voiced concern over engine reliability across the entire season) means there is a strong chance that the wrong driver could win the championship from external circumstances arising
from the double points scenario during the final race.
It has not been a popular idea with the teams or most purists but for the upcoming F1 season the FIA’s dart will keep double top!
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