By Robbie Butler
Day 7 Results:
The final day proved to be just as disappointing as many before. The market had us all but beaten and the trend continued. In fact, it looked like we wouldn’t have any success until Windsor Park won the last race of the Festival at odds of 2-9. A truly disappointing week. Hats off to Eugene Fama. 2014 goes to the market.
Total stake: €10
Return: €2.44
P/L on Day 1: -€7.56
P/L on the week: -€29.14
Day 6 Results:
We needed somewhat of a minor miracle on Saturday to beat the market for 2014. Marty’s Magic got the ball rolling when finishing 2nd @ 9-4. However both Spryt and Initial failed to follow up on our early success. Silwana did win the 4.55pm but at odds of 2-5. Teach Nua and Call Vinnie were both unplaced in the final two races.
Total stake: €12
Return: €4.93
P/L on Day 1: -€7.07
P/L on the week: -€21.58
Day 5 Results:
Our busiest day of the week so far. A runner in all of the seven races but our luck didn't change. Only our 5th runner (Massinga 8-11) and our 7th (Forgotten Rules 9-10) passed the post first. Both were odds on and did little to stem the damage of the other five. We are well behind entering the weekend. 2014 isn't shaping up to be a success...
Total stake: €14
Return: €7.25
P/L on Day 1: -€6.75
P/L on the week: -€14.51
Day 4 Results:
Day four proved to be a tough one. Five horses went to post and for the first time this week D.K. Weld did not saddle a winner. 8-11 shot Tested finished 2nd but the odds were too short for us to collect. Only Hisaabaat's (16-1) 4th place finish in the Galway Hurdle saw a return.
Total stake: €10
Return: €5.00
P/L on Day 1: -€5.00
P/L on the week: -€7.76
Day 3 Results:
Five Dermot Weld trained horses took their chances on Day 3 of the Festival. Of the five, four went off at a price of 13-8 or shorter. Only Moonbi Creek (6.05pm) didn't start as the market favourite. Like yesterday we had two winners (Whitey O'Gwain @ 9-10 and Brooch @ 4-9). However, unlike yesterday we didn't finish ahead, leaving us behind overall for the week to date.
Total stake: €10
Return: €6.69
P/L on Day 1: -€3.31
P/L on the week: -€2.76
Day 2 Results:
Four horses when to post for us today. Chinese Light finished 3rd @ Evens in the 6.05pm but we failed to see a return given the short odds. However, things rapidly improved. Defining Year finished 4th @ 6-1, while both Hidden Universe (9-4) and Antique Platinum (2-5) crossed the line in front. This leaves us ahead for the week to date.
Total stake: €8
Return: €11.80
P/L on Day 1: €3.80
P/L on the week: €0.55
Day 1 Results:
As with previous years we stick to the following format: €2 win stake if the horse is shorter than 4-1; €1 each-way for horses 4-1 or more. DK Weld saddled seven runners on Day 1 resulting in an outlay of €14. Manhattan Swing (6th @ 15/8), Postulation (2nd @ 5/2), Pay Day Kitten (20th @ 14-1), Bobby’s Heart (10th @ 7-4) and Call Vinnie (2nd @ 5-4) all failed to deliver. We did collect in the 6.45pm when 7-1 shot Grecian Tiger finished 2nd. Our only winner arrived in the 7.45pm (Timiyan @ 3-1).
Total stake: €14
Return: €10.75
P/L on Day 1: -€3.25
P/L on the week: -€3.25
***************************************************************************************************************************************************
The Galway Festival starts on Monday with seven days of both flat and national hunt racing action. Since 2012 we have used the festival and horses trained by top horseman Dermot Weld to test put Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) to the test.
For non-economists, Fama published a groundbreaking article in May 1970 called the "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work", which appeared in the Journal of Finance and conceptualized the idea of the efficient market hypothesis. Put simply, Fama concluded that 'the house always wins' (as they say in Vegas).
We disagree. If you had followed D.K. Weld over the past two Festivals, assuming the same stake on all horse, you would have seen a return of 12.5% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013.
Monday will see that start of our quest to, once again, ‘beat the bookies’. Let's hope 2014 proves to be just as profitable.
Day 7 Results:
The final day proved to be just as disappointing as many before. The market had us all but beaten and the trend continued. In fact, it looked like we wouldn’t have any success until Windsor Park won the last race of the Festival at odds of 2-9. A truly disappointing week. Hats off to Eugene Fama. 2014 goes to the market.
Total stake: €10
Return: €2.44
P/L on Day 1: -€7.56
P/L on the week: -€29.14
Day 6 Results:
We needed somewhat of a minor miracle on Saturday to beat the market for 2014. Marty’s Magic got the ball rolling when finishing 2nd @ 9-4. However both Spryt and Initial failed to follow up on our early success. Silwana did win the 4.55pm but at odds of 2-5. Teach Nua and Call Vinnie were both unplaced in the final two races.
Total stake: €12
Return: €4.93
P/L on Day 1: -€7.07
P/L on the week: -€21.58
Day 5 Results:
Our busiest day of the week so far. A runner in all of the seven races but our luck didn't change. Only our 5th runner (Massinga 8-11) and our 7th (Forgotten Rules 9-10) passed the post first. Both were odds on and did little to stem the damage of the other five. We are well behind entering the weekend. 2014 isn't shaping up to be a success...
Total stake: €14
Return: €7.25
P/L on Day 1: -€6.75
P/L on the week: -€14.51
Day 4 Results:
Day four proved to be a tough one. Five horses went to post and for the first time this week D.K. Weld did not saddle a winner. 8-11 shot Tested finished 2nd but the odds were too short for us to collect. Only Hisaabaat's (16-1) 4th place finish in the Galway Hurdle saw a return.
Total stake: €10
Return: €5.00
P/L on Day 1: -€5.00
P/L on the week: -€7.76
Day 3 Results:
Five Dermot Weld trained horses took their chances on Day 3 of the Festival. Of the five, four went off at a price of 13-8 or shorter. Only Moonbi Creek (6.05pm) didn't start as the market favourite. Like yesterday we had two winners (Whitey O'Gwain @ 9-10 and Brooch @ 4-9). However, unlike yesterday we didn't finish ahead, leaving us behind overall for the week to date.
Total stake: €10
Return: €6.69
P/L on Day 1: -€3.31
P/L on the week: -€2.76
Day 2 Results:
Four horses when to post for us today. Chinese Light finished 3rd @ Evens in the 6.05pm but we failed to see a return given the short odds. However, things rapidly improved. Defining Year finished 4th @ 6-1, while both Hidden Universe (9-4) and Antique Platinum (2-5) crossed the line in front. This leaves us ahead for the week to date.
Total stake: €8
Return: €11.80
P/L on Day 1: €3.80
P/L on the week: €0.55
Day 1 Results:
As with previous years we stick to the following format: €2 win stake if the horse is shorter than 4-1; €1 each-way for horses 4-1 or more. DK Weld saddled seven runners on Day 1 resulting in an outlay of €14. Manhattan Swing (6th @ 15/8), Postulation (2nd @ 5/2), Pay Day Kitten (20th @ 14-1), Bobby’s Heart (10th @ 7-4) and Call Vinnie (2nd @ 5-4) all failed to deliver. We did collect in the 6.45pm when 7-1 shot Grecian Tiger finished 2nd. Our only winner arrived in the 7.45pm (Timiyan @ 3-1).
Total stake: €14
Return: €10.75
P/L on Day 1: -€3.25
P/L on the week: -€3.25
***************************************************************************************************************************************************
The Galway Festival starts on Monday with seven days of both flat and national hunt racing action. Since 2012 we have used the festival and horses trained by top horseman Dermot Weld to test put Eugene Fama's Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) to the test.
For non-economists, Fama published a groundbreaking article in May 1970 called the "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work", which appeared in the Journal of Finance and conceptualized the idea of the efficient market hypothesis. Put simply, Fama concluded that 'the house always wins' (as they say in Vegas).
We disagree. If you had followed D.K. Weld over the past two Festivals, assuming the same stake on all horse, you would have seen a return of 12.5% in 2012 and 4.6% in 2013.
Monday will see that start of our quest to, once again, ‘beat the bookies’. Let's hope 2014 proves to be just as profitable.
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