The expected value of a point with a 100% chance is 1 x 1 = 1, whereas the expected value of a goal with a 48% chance is 0.48 x 3 = 1.44. The 48% figure comes from the Hurling 2020 Committee Report. In this report, they describe a testing session at Semple Stadium Thurles that included several top inter-county penalty takers and goalkeepers. A total of 114 shots were taken, with a 48% success rate on an 18-meter shot with three people in the goal. As a result, the certainty of scoring 1 point is appealing, but the expected value is lower (1), going for 3 points (a goal) although there’s a risk (48% chance), the expected value is higher (1.44).
The potential to score a goal may be more valuable to some people than the assurance of scoring a point because they have different risk preferences or attitudes. However, rationality is not the only factor that influences decision-making, other elements, such as feelings, prejudices, or social norms might also have an impact. Consequently, the decision to take a score of 1 or 3 is influenced by the decision maker's subjective values and beliefs in addition to the objective probabilities and payoffs. In this case, Shefflin opted for the safer option of scoring a point, giving his team a slight edge.
The pressure of the circumstance, the player’s self-assurance in their abilities, the expectations of their teammates and supporters, and the unpredictability of the result may have had an impact on the player. These elements may have affected their decision-making in different ways. The accuracy of a player’s shots is impacted by human error. Shefflin might have underestimated the likelihood of scoring a goal.
Since 2012, there is now only one defender, and the ball must be struck from outside the 20-meter line. As a result of these changes, the chances of scoring have changed; in 2022, there were two goals for every save. The chance of scoring a goal is 66%, so the expected value has changed as well.
(Megan is a student of economics in the BA at University College Cork.)