by Declan Jordan
Recently I've posted a couple of times on African football and in particular the effects of seeding on the outcome of competitions there (specifically World Cup Finals qualification). The seeding system has meant that it is difficult for nations to break through to the higher rankings. There may be a positive effect for the African football federation (CAF) where nations that appear in several World Cup Finals may learn from their experiences and perform better at second and subsequent finals. The cost of that benefit may be less competition among the nations and a form of vicious (though for some virtuous) cycle and lock-in. The graph below shows the highest ranking African nation at the end of each calendar year from 1993 to 2013 (for 2013 obviously it is the September figure). The columns in blue represent World Cup years and it's clear that there is a positive effect on ranking from playing in a World Cup Finals. At these tournaments the African teams get to play higher ranked opposition from Europe and South America and results get a higher weighting (and this is on top of the wins gained in qualification).
It should be noted that the strong rankings of Nigeria in 2006 and Egypt in 2010 were achieved without qualification for the World Cup Finals in those years. Nigeria played at the previous World Cup (drawing with England) and had been third in the African Nations Cup in the three tournaments in 2002, 2004 and 2006. Egypt won the African Nations Cup three times in a row in 2006, 2008 and 2010. This shows it's possible for African nations to have a high ranking without the World Cup but it takes a significant achievement within the continent. At the start of 2011 Ghana reaped the benefits of its impressive showing at the 2010 World Cup, reaching the quarter-finals and coming within a missed penalty of the semi-finals.
What is striking from the graph is the repetition in the countries at the top of the rankings. In the 21 years since 1993 there have been only 7 different countries at the top of the rankings. These are shown in the table on the right. When second places are considered the number of different countries increases to 11. There are 53 African countries affiliated to FIFA. So, in 21 years only 13% of countries have reached the top ranked position at least once. 1 in 5 countries have been in the top two countries in the last 21 years.
What is striking from the graph is the repetition in the countries at the top of the rankings. In the 21 years since 1993 there have been only 7 different countries at the top of the rankings. These are shown in the table on the right. When second places are considered the number of different countries increases to 11. There are 53 African countries affiliated to FIFA. So, in 21 years only 13% of countries have reached the top ranked position at least once. 1 in 5 countries have been in the top two countries in the last 21 years.
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