I’ve made various posts using xG recently. Here’s another using xG difference (the difference between xG for and against) for the 21/22 EPL. After just 7 games we are starting to see some structure and how things will probably play out – below plots the relationship between xG difference and points accrued.
Should Thomas Tuchel be concerned? Chelsea are top for now, but both Manchester City’s and Liverpool’s significantly greater (positive) xG difference is cause for concern. Winning the league and not scoring the most goals doesn’t usually go together. On occasion this happens but usually teams that score the most win the league (or are second). Tuchel will probably need to bump up the Xg (for). If not, Chelsea will be under pressure to continue to be very efficient with the chances they create. Any increase in xG may have to come at the expense of their excellent defensive record. At a market price of 23/10, Chelsea might not be good value. Liverpool at 4/1 champions might be slightly overpriced.
At the other end of the table, Daniel Farke should definitely be concerned. Priced at 1/4 to be relegated, everything suggests it's going to be a tough watch this season for a Canaries fan.