If you are interested in knowing which country has the best chance of winning the upcoming Rugby World Cup (RWC) you should check out the recently launched www.rugbyvision.com. Dr Niven Winchester an economist at MIT has developed the site, bringing together several models that he has developed over the years. The website includes:
1) Probabilities of each team reaching various stages of the RWC
2) Global rugby rankings - which, unlike the official World Rugby rankings, can be used to predict game scores
3) Live predictions for selected RWC matches.
The model employed doesn’t throw up many surprises and no prizes for guessing who is predicted as eventual winners; New Zealand (46.4% chance). England are the second most likely winners with a 24.6% of home success.
Irish fans will be pleased to know that the model gives the team a 26.3% chance of making the final and an 8% chance of being crowned world champions. Slightly, more worrying, is the fact that a road map to the final (see below) expects Ireland to be knocked out at the semi-final stage to the hosts.
The site is certainly worth a closer look.