by Declan Jordan

My research interests of regional and sports economics probably mean I am very drawn to locational or spatial factors affecting sports performance. There is a very large literature on the effects of location on the performance of businesses, whether measured by innovation, productivity or profitability. As far back as 1890, Alfred Marshall recognised the tendency for economic activity to concentrate spatially - driven, he suggested, by external benefits to concentration (now referred to as localisation economies) including knowledge spillovers, availability of skilled labour, and access to specialised inputs. Michael Porter argued in 1998 that "paradoxically, the enduring competitive advantages in a global economy lie increasingly in local things". Recently I have done some work on this spatial aspect of performance, such as here. 

This area is a potentially very interesting one for sports economics and regional science, as the special features of sports leagues and competition and the availability of data make it possible to get at important spatial effects.

An obvious feature of sports is the importance of different sports across locations. Of course some of this may be obvious, where winter sports are perhaps more likely to be popular in colder locations. However, are there significant differences in success rates spatially, and can these be attributed to local features? Ireland may be an interesting case here, since the country is so small it is difficult to see why sports may be consistently successful on a regional or spatial basis.

I have just begun to look at the data for Ireland, but the table below is an interesting starting point. It shows the location of the winners of the League of Ireland (football), All-Ireland Gaelic Football championship, All-Ireland Hurling championship and All-Ireland rugby league since 1980 categorised by NUTS3 region. There are, of course, some data issues. NUTS3 classification has not been in place since 1980, there have been winners of each title (with the exception of hurling) from Northern Ireland in that period [these have been excluded], and the rugby league has only been in place since 1992. I have chosen 1980 because it allows me to include a football winner from the Mid-West - my own club Limerick who last won it back then.

Some counties do not have a senior hurling team or a team playing in the League of Ireland or at senior club level in rugby. However, there is nothing to prevent a team from any county participating and progressing in each of these sports, and the failure to have a team at those levels may indicate the lack of popularity of those sports in that county and/or the dominance of another sport there. (A difficulty also arises for the separation of Tipperary into two NUTS regions, while they compete as one county in gaelic games. Tipperary championship wins have been split 50:50 between the Mid-West and South-East regions - which explains why there are "half-wins" in hurling).

The table shows the number and proportion of winners by region. It is noticeable that for each sport there is a region that has won over half of the titles. Also, the most successful region is different for each sport. In some regions the success is driven by one county (such as Kilkenny in hurling in the South-East or Kerry in Gaelic football in the South-West).

It is clear that even in a small country like Ireland location matters for success in particular sports. There are some possible explanations, such as a type of demonstration effect where athletes in a county/region are drawn to the success of a particular sport in that area. This means history matters and there is an element of cumulative causation. This could also occur in relation to attracting funding and sponsorship. Perhaps there are strong clubs at the level under these elite championships that generate stronger competition and better players and teams at the elite level.

These are all interesting potential explanations and the research agenda for spatial analysis of sports performance in a fascinating future research area.

by Declan Jordan

Fans and commentators in Gaelic Football have been very exercised by the spate of one-sided games in the All-Ireland series recently (for a primer on Gaelic games see here). There have been calls for the Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA) to "do something" or risk turning spectators away from the sport. The future of the game itself has been called into question by the more doom-laden pieces. As someone with less than a love of this particular sport, I have given very little thought to the future of the game. However, there are some very interesting sports economics issues being raised by the current debate.

Jim McGuinness said, in an article in the Irish Times last week, that the one-sided games in the previous weekend made him fear for the game. He said "the gap between the elite counties and the rest is becoming a chasm. This is blatantly obvious now, and the GAA has to address the issue urgently". His suggestions to improve the situation centre around better coaching, paid for by more money from the GAA to "poorer" counties. An alternative proposal is Joe Brolly's suggestion of a two-tier Championship to ensure closer games is one proposed solution. 

What the arguments are based on is the classic idea of competitive balance. There are growing concerns that more games at the latter end of the Championship are so imbalanced that there is no uncertainty in the outcome. Jim McGuinness worries that "if what happened last weekend at Croke Park happens for the next five years in a row, then the 60,000 people who turned up will become 30,000 and it will dwindle from there. Who wants to see that?". 

Gaelic games are unusual in that they place greater importance on the knock-out Championship than the league tournament. In some ways the league is considered as a form of preparation for the Championship. Attendances at Championship games far exceeds attendances at league matches - even league play-offs and finals. A 'back-door' element was introduced to avoid the situation for decades where half of the counties would have one Championship game every year. Now counties are guaranteed a minimum of two - which is still a difficult situation for counties that train and prepare over the winter and spring. It also mitigates against team development where a county will find it difficult to progress on the basis of two matches at Championship level in a year.

The importance of the Championship also makes it difficult to measure competitive balance in Gaelic games. The structure of the Championships - with four provincial competitions leading into an All-Ireland series - also makes it difficult to determine how much (im)balance there may be nationally. Also, a knock-out tournament may at times through up mismatches simply because of the teams drawn against each other and how those teams have fared in previous rounds' draws. This is important in the current debate because very often the availability heuristic hinders good decision-making. This means we tend to rely on immediate examples and our opinions are more heavily weighted toward more recent information. In the Sunday Independent, Eamonn Sweeney was getting at just this notion (perhaps more succinctly than me) when he referred to the idea of a two-tier championship and worries about imbalance as this year's "Big Stupid GAA Idea".

So, is there any evidence, apart from a couple of games in which Dublin and Kerry rack up huge wins? The table below shows the number of counties that have appeared at different stages in the Championship since 2004. It also shows a breakdown between 2004 and 2009 (6 seasons) and 2010 and 2015 (6 seasons) - while the winners and finalists aren't known at this stage we do know that there won't be a new team reaching those milestones.

The main story in terms of imbalance in the Championship over the past 12 seasons has been a relative decline in  Kerry dominance between the two periods. Kerry appeared in every final in the first period - winning 4 of them. Since 2010 they have had to settle for "only" 2 final appearances and 2 semi-final appearances including this year. Interestingly Kerry's dominance at provincial level is stronger in the second period (winning 5 of 6) than the first period (winning 3 of 6). Dublin have dominated Leinster winning 10 of 12 titles while they have only recently appeared as the potentially dominant county. Over this period they have no final appearances until 2011 with 2 semi-finals in the first period. In the second period they have appeared in the same number of finals (2) as Donegal, Kerry and Mayo (this may after this year's semi-finals).

Looking at the numbers in general there would appear to be some evidence of greater imbalance as the number of counties reaching a semi-final has declined. However, it would seem that these counties may be more competitive as the number of different finalists and winners has increased.

I can't recall similar calls for two-tier Championships and moves to enhance competitive balance during the mid-2000s when Kerry were dominant. Perhaps the spectre of the most populated county (Dublin) with its potential for commercial success is dominating hearts and minds. If Dublin go on to win this year expect more calls for "something to be done". Otherwise we can wait for nest season's big GAA idea.

By John Considine

Tomorrow Kilkenny and Tipperary face-off in a replay of the All-Ireland hurling final.  It is very difficult to predict who will emerge victorious.  Most of us will provide a range of reasons why we believe one or other of the teams will be successful.  After the event we can often convince ourselves that we saw something coming.  However, those journalists who commit their predictions to print don’t have that escape route.
 
One such journalist is Emmet Ryan who writes a column called “The Spread” that features every week in The Sunday Business Post.  The column examines the betting associated with various sporting events.  Emmet puts his head on the block each week by providing the reader with a suggested bet.  Unfortunately for those following his GAA advice, his success rate for the latter stages of the All-Ireland series in hurling and football has not been good.
 
Emmet suggested punters go for a Kilkenny win in the hurling final at odds of 4/5.  The sides ended level.  Last week he advocated the selection of Donegal at 8/11.  Kerry won and the bet went down.  Except for the Dublin –Donegal football semi-final, he had little success at the semi-finals stage (I don’t have a record of his prediction for the Dublin-Donegal game).  In the hurling semi-finals he suggested the punters should take Limerick at 5/2 and Cork at evens.  Kilkenny and Tipperary triumphed.  In the drawn football game between Kerry and Mayo, Emmet opted for a Mayo win at 10/11.
 
It is to Emmet’s credit that one can read his columns after the event and believe the result should have gone the way he predicted.
 
I performed little better in my prediction for the drawn Kilkenny-Tipperary game.  My prediction was made with approximately 60 minutes of the 70 minutes elapsed.  With Kilkenny 4 points ahead of Tipperary, I turned to my nephew and said “put the house on a Tipperary win”.  I was convinced it was inevitable.  Fortunately, no money was wagered or lost.
 
My prediction for tomorrow’s game has to do with the attendance.  The table below shows that the replays of 2012 and 2013 attracted more spectators than the drawn games (although smaller TV audiences).  In 2012 the replay was on a Sunday.  Last year the replay was a Saturday evening game - just like tomorrow.  One of the reasons for the greater numbers at the replays is the decision of the GAA to reduce ticket prices for the replays.  This limited evidence suggests the attendance tomorrow will be greater than it was three weeks ago.  I'm not so sure.  Prior to the drawn game there were stories of tickets being returned to Croke Park (see how tickets are distributed for sale here). The availability of tickets in the surrounds of Croke Park three weeks ago suggests the demand for another Kilkenny-Tipperary game was down on previous years.  A cracking drawn game may restore the desire of the fans.  However, I'm predicting a decline in the numbers attending tomorrow.

By Robbie Butler

As a Waterford man living in Cork one cannot be but impressed at the attitude Leesiders have towards their sports teams. Each spring Cork fans are probably the only ones in the country with realistic hopes that they can win both the Senior All-Ireland Football and Hurling Championships. Their annual stroll in the ladies football equivalent is twinned with a fighting chance in the camogie (women’s hurling) championship, meaning that in any given year all four titles do have an outside chance of coming to the Rebel County.

League of Ireland fans will know Cork City aren’t doing too badly either. This season has probably been the best since the title winning season of 2005, with the Rebels just behind leaders Dundalk as the title race reaches its conclusion.

While the soccer team is probably viewed as somewhat of a lesser brand when compared to the hurlers (especially in the city), here’s something to think about.

This year the Cork Senior Hurlers played five Championship games; two against Waterford, one against Clare, the Munster Final against Limerick and the All-Ireland Senior Hurling Semi-final against Tipperary. In total, 171,581 spectators saw them in action.

Assuming Cork bring 60% of the fans to each game (based on the fact they probably have a bigger fan base than most of the counties they played this year) this means just under 103,000 people supported Cork at their five championship games this summer. If we assumed a  50/50 split in the crowd, this number falls to 85,791.

Fans of League of Ireland will know the supporter split at domestic games is far more unbalanced. I would estimate at the average game 90% of those attending are supporting the home team. Using this base, we can assume that just over 46,000 fans have supported Cork City in Turners Cross this season.

That's a ratio of just above 1:2 in favour of the hurlers. Given the elite nature of inter-county senior hurling, the limited number of games the Cork Senior Hurlers play and the value placed on the Munster Senior Hurling Title and All-Ireland Senior Hurling title by Irish society, Cork City are doing very well to keep the ratio so close.

It’s unlikely we will ever see 1:1 unless Cork City qualify for the group stages of the UEFA Champions League but we might be waiting a little while for that to happen.  

By John Considine

Yesterday was a significant day in Irish sport.  The international soccer team played the first game of the 2016 European Championships against Georgia while Kilkenny and Tipperary played in the All-Ireland hurling final.  The eleven Irish soccer players that started the game carried a range of squad numbers on their back, e.g. Stephen Ward wore the number 17.  The fifteen players that started on each of the hurling teams had numbers 1-15, although not all of the players started in the positions their numbers indicated.

One of the keys to understanding the significance of the numbers the players wear is the duration of the "contract" between the player and the team.  All three teams are representative teams.  The Irish players represent their country while the hurlers represent their respective counties.  Yesterday, they were in the team/squad for that particular game.  It is unlikely that the team/squad composition for the next soccer international or the replay of the All-Ireland hurling final will be the same.

The numbers are placed on the shirts to faciliate identification of the players by the referee, the spectators at the game, those watching on television, and those commentators who are relaying the game to those not in attendance.  The sporting organisations also leverage the numbering by selling match programmes that list the player numbers for spectators - this is a relatively larger source of revenue for the GAA given its stage of commercial development.  Unlike the situation in the GAA, the shirts of each soccer player also carried that player's name.  For an international soccer international, like yesterday's game against Georgia, the prime reason is to facilitate identification of the player so that particular player can be separated from his colleagues.  However, when these soccer players return to their clubs the name on the shirt helps with another form of identification that is important commercially.  The replica kit market is based on the consumer identifying with the team and the player.  Imagine a parent trying to convince their Liverpool supporting kid that another red shirt (Manchester United) suits them just as well.  Very few economists would suggest that Liverpool and Manchester United shirt are in the same market (and the UK competition authorities agree - see previous post here).  The kid might also identify with a particular player.  Again the parent would struggle getting the kid to accept the number 24 (with or without Joe Allen's surname) if the kid wants the number 8 jersey of Steven Gerrard.

The squad numbers assigned to the Irish players allowed the Irish manager to name his team closer to the start of the game than might otherwise be the case (as did the rule governing the naming of teams).  In an interview on Saturday, Martin O'Neill explained how it was not his practice to name the team too early.  Where a team is announced early then it might hand a strategic advantage to the opposition.  Where it is believed the opposition obtain the team unofficially then it could be seen as breaching the rules (see Cardiff's complaint against Crystal Palace here).

Assigning numbers to players in the GAA is becoming more strategic/tactical.  Yesterday, all the players did not lineout in the positions their numbers would indicate.  The teams were also announced closer to game-day than would have been the case 20 years ago.  In recent years Kilkenny announce their team on the Friday before the game (as most people know Kilkenny do strategy/tactics but they differ from most in that they don't make a big deal of it). The fact that the players did carry numbers 1-15 probably reflects the fact that history matters.  Kilkenny and Tipperary are two of the top three hurling counties in terms of All-Ireland success.  It is harder to justify changing something that is working.  For successful counties a change might be interpreted as fear of the opposition.  In two weeks time Kerry play Donegal in the All-Ireland football final.  Kerry are the most successful football county.  They will probably line out 1-15 (although they have been less likely to do so recently).  Donegal are more likely to have a number from outside 1-15 starting the game.  Donegal have 2 All-Ireland title whereas Kerry have 36.  The second title was secured a couple of years ago under a manager well versed in strategic and tactical innovation.  That manager is still in charge.  We have less than two weeks to see what happens.

By John Eakins

The All Ireland hurling final on Sunday once again sees Kilkenny and Tipperary facing each other in the latest edition of the age old rivalry. Over the next few days many different aspects of the game will be dissected by pundits and the ordinary public in an attempt to predict how the game will unfold. One which always generates debate, particularly in recent years is the role of the referee. Most GAA observers would prefer to have a referee who “lets the game flow” as this usually brings about a much more exciting game. Others suggest that this could favour the more physical team. When it comes to an All Ireland hurling final, small margins like this could matter. The famous interview between Marty Morrissey and Brian Cody after the 2009 All Ireland hurling final summarises these conflicting views quite well.
 
        MORRISSEY: "In terms of the referee, were you pleased overall? I'm sure you are now, considering you've won  the All-Ireland, but did you think he allowed a lot to go?"

        CODY: "Ah Marty, please, give me a break will you. The referee - we're supposed to say nothing about the referees. I make a habit of saying absolutely nothing about referees. Diarmuid Kirwan, I am certain in my head, was going out to be the very best he possibly could be. You seem to have had a problem with him; you tell me."

        MORRISSEY: "I had no problem with him, but it's obviously a point of debate after the game. In terms of ... "

        CODY: "I can't understand, Marty, how this discussion with me is turning into a debate about a referee. It started off about the four-in-a-row; now you want to talk about a referee, it sounds a bit silly.

So what can we say about the role of referees. Well we can look at data on the number of frees awarded per game. The first graph below gives figures for all of the games played in this season’s hurling championship (excluding the opening round robin matches in Leinster and the replay between Wexford and Clare where the figures I collected included extra time). What is of interest here is whether fewer number of frees are given as we get toward the closing stages of the championship – perhaps where the pressure to “let the game flow” is at its greatest. There may be some evidence to suggest that this is happening although it is far from conclusive (we’d need more data on previous seasons). The average number of frees awarded for the Munster and Leinster Finals, the All Ireland Quarter finals and Semi finals was 20.5. In comparison, for all of the other provincial matches, the average was 21.7 (with the Kilkenny v Offaly game dragging this average down somewhat) and for all of the qualifiers, the average was 24.8.

But what about the All-Ireland hurling final itself? The next graph shows the number of frees awarded in All-Ireland hurling finals from 2000 to 2013 (including the replay matches in the last two years). The average number of frees for this period is 26.3, which perhaps surprisingly is not toward the lower end of the range (in comparison to 2014 matches). And if we look at the trend in the data, the number of frees awarded is actually increasing slightly over time. So the perception of All Ireland hurling finals as being relatively "free-less" compared to other matches during the year may not be the case. One final note – the referee on Sunday, Barry Kelly, has referred three previous All-Ireland hurling finals, 2006, 2008 and the drawn 2012 match. The 2012 drawn final saw the highest number of frees awarded in the period from 2000-2013 (34) while the 2008 final is fourth on the list (30). The 2006 final is twelfth on the list (25). Given this I would expect something in the high 20’s once again on Sunday. Which team this will favour (if at all) is something we will just have to wait and see.

By John Eakins

There has much been much discussion as to the reasons why Cork performed so poorly against Tipperary last weekend. One factor frequently mentioned is the long lay-off that Cork had between the Munster Final and the Semi-Final (5 weeks). From what I have heard the debate seems to be split 50/50 with some saying that it’s too long a period to keep players’ minds focussed while others citing the fact that Kilkenny haven’t been affected to the same degree in previous seasons. The table below might perhaps give some further insight. It details the provincial winners in Munster and Leinster since the introduction of the‘back-door’ in 1997 and the number of weeks between playing the provincial final and the subsequent semi-final or quarter final (quarter finals were introduced in 2005 and lasted for 3 seasons). Those teams highlighted in red are ones who lost their subsequent semi-final or quarter final after playing a provincial final.

In the majority of cases, one of the provincial winners loses their next match (this happened 9 out of the 18 seasons). In 7 out of the 18 seasons, both provincial winners won their next match (although as explained in the footnote to the table, Kilkenny and Waterford lost semi-finals in two of these cases). In 2 out of the 18 seasons, both provincial winners lost their next match (2004 and 2013). So instances where provincial winners lose their next match occur more often than they don’t. There doesn’t appear to be any clear relationship between these figures and the number of week’s lay-off however. Even in 2010, Waterford had a shorter number of weeks compared to Kilkenny (due to a replay against Cork in the Munster final) and still lost their semi-final (to Tipperary). 

One interesting statistic from the table which could lead to a working hypothesis is the fact that 5 out of the last 7 Munster hurling winners have lost their subsequent semi-finals. In almost all of these cases, the Munster win was from a team who hadn’t won Munster in a number of years. For example, the 2008 Munster winners, Tipperary won their previous Munster title in 2001. There was a gap of 3 years between Waterford’s win in 2010 and their previous win. When Limerick won in 2013 it was their first Munster win in over 17 years while Cork’s win this year was their first in 8 years. In contrast, in Leinster, Kilkenny won 7 in a row between 2005 and 2011 and never lost their subsequent match that followed. When Dublin won the Leinster title in 2013 for the first time in 52 years they also lost their next match in the semi-final with Cork.

It’s only a hypothesis and there are a number of examples which run counter to it (Cork in 2000, Galway in 2012, Tipperary in 2012) but perhaps the effort that is put in and elation in winning a provincial title (particularly in the ultra-competitive Munster championship) for the first time in a number of years leave teams flat for the next match. This may be exacerbated by the long wait for that match. So perhaps a shorter time period between matches may work but only in tempering the joy of a provincial title and focusing minds on the next task quicker.

By John Considine

Last September both All-Ireland finals ended with questions about the amount of time played.  In the hurling final, the fourth official put up the board to say there would be at least 2 added minutes.  When the clock ticked over into the third minute, Cork led.  The referee allowed the game to proceed.  Clare scored an equaliser and went on to win the replay.  In the football final, Mayo were two points down when the minimum added time allocated was up.  Mayo also had a free kick.  The free-taker opted for a point in the belief that the referee would add some more time and Mayo would have a chance to get an equaliser.  Unfortunately for Mayo very little playing time was added after their point.

Last Sunday week, Mayo were on the other side of a similar decision when Cork were two points down with a free-kick.  Cork opted for a point but the game ended when the ball was put back into play after a Cork point.  Cork pointed to a consultation with the referee that took place before the free-kick was taken.  Following the game there were calls for the regulation of time played to be taken from the referee.

High profile incidents like these are likely to change the way the GAA regulate playing time.  In a previous post David Butler explained how one such high profile incident, in a game between Aston Villa and Stoke City, resulted in the introduction of injury or added time (here).  Another high profile incident that changed the rules of a sport occured in US college basketball on March 7th, 1982.  The game was between North Carolina and Virginia.

"... by the end of the game, the fans were booing, the players on both sides were disappointed, and both coaches were taking flack for thinking too much and playing too little.  With seven minutes and thirty-three seconds left to play and his team and his team ahead by one point, North Carolina's coach, the legendary Dean Smith, told his team to play keep away.  With Virginia's coach Terry Holland keeping his squad close to the basket in a zone defense, the North Carolina players were free to dribble and pass and stall and do everything but shoot.  As the game clock ticked away, and a glorious game turned foul, the chorus of boos rose in crescendo beyond the rafters of the Greensboro Coliseum.  ... The ACC championship wasn't the only "slowdown" game that year where fans booed; it was just the biggest."

The above description is taken from the beginning of a 2013 book called Madmen, Intellectuals, and Academic Scribblers written by Wayne Leighton and Edward Lopez.  Leighton & Lopez go on to explain how the profile of the North Carolina versus Virginia played a role in the NCAA introducing a shot clock.  That is why it is significant that the timing incidents in the three GAA games above occurred in such high profile games.  The GAA has already experimented with the used of a clock for the male game similar to the one used in the female game.  In time we will discover if the recent incident will prove pivotal.

Madmen, Intellectuals, and Academic Scribblers is not a sports economics book.  Rather, it is a book about how economic ideas matter for political change.  The sporting incident is used as an example of how, when people are unhappy by the outcomes produced within the existing rules, they set about changing the rules of the political and economic game.  Leighton & Lopez use the sporting analogy because they argue that sports are controlled experiments in human behaviour.  Many would agree.  It is a book worth reading for the economists among those who read this blog.

By John Considine

This weekend the 2014 All-Ireland senior hurling quarter-finals take place.  Both games will be played, as a double-header, in Thurles on Sunday.  Dublin play Tipperary in one quarter-final.  The second quarter-final is between Limerick and Wexford.  It will be the fourth week in a row that the Wexford hurlers will be playing.  During that time they have generated a wave of support that should ensure that Semple Stadium is close to full on Sunday.  In fact it has been suggested by Wexford officials and supporters that Croke Park rather than Semple Stadium might have been a better venue.  Wexford County Board Chairman, Diarmuid Devereux, made his view know in the Irish Examiner and on 2FM's Game On.  An examination of the last 21 years of data on Wexford hurling games suggests that it is not clear that it will be Wexford supporters that will swell the numbers on Sunday.

Looking at single games (black squares) in the figure below, it has been 10 years since Wexford followers played in front of a crowd of more than 40,000.  In 2004 a superb last minute goal by Michael Jacob knocked Kilkenny out of the Leinster championship at the semi-final stage.  Wexford beat Offaly in a Leinster final in front of 46,800 spectators.  Wexford supporters travelled in huge numbers to an All-Ireland semi-final where they were heavily defeated by Cork.  A successful Wexford will bring more of their supporters to games.

Between 2004 and 2013 the numbers attending Wexford hurling games have tailed off.  A lack of success and the dominance of Kilkenny contributing to the decline in numbers.  Since 2006 no single game involving the Wexford hurlers has attracted more than 13,000 spectators.  Since 2009 it took a triple-header to get more than 20,000 people through the turnstyles to see the Wexford hurlers.

The last five years were pretty bleak in terms of success on the field for Wexford.  As a result, Wexford hurling supporters have added little to the revenues of the GAA.  A victory over Limerick on Sunday will change this situation.  However, the GAA revenues as a whole may not increase because Limerick supporters will not follow a Wexford team to Croke Park.

Diarmuid Devereux  made some more interesting observations when he pointed out the limited number of stand tickets available and the timing of their sale.  Wexford were the last of the quarter-finalists to qualify.  Unfortunately, the tickets for the quarter-finals went on sale prior to their qualification.  It is something the GAA should consider for future years.

By John Considine

As Dublin footballers cruised past Laois, Wexford, and Meath on their way to another Leinster football title, a few grumbled about the advantage Dublin get from playing all their games in Croke Park.  To keep matters simple, it would be nice to be able to calculate the percentage of games that Dublin footballers win at home and the percentage that they win away from home.  Unfortunately, Dublin footballers rarely play outside Croke Park.  The size of the Dublin football following means that most grounds outside Croke Park would struggle to hold the crowd wanting to attend (see previous post here).  As an alternative the winning percentages of home teams in gaelic games for the period 2008-11 are presented below.

The numbers in the table below are for the four championship years between 2008 and 2011.  They are based on just over 60% of the senior championship games played in those years because the other 40% of games were played on neutral ground.  Croke Park features prominently in the games held at a neutral venue.  All later stages of the All-Ireland series tend to be held in Croke Park.  This is a neutral venue for all games not involving Dublin.

Let us ignore the anomaly that is the Connacht (football) championship for the moment. It seems that the home team wins between 50% and 60% of the games. The away team wins between 33% and 44%. It is clear that there is an advantage to being a home team.

Connacht is an outlier. One of the reasons for this is that New York and London play in the Connacht championship. Despite London's heroics in the 2013 championship, it would be fair to say that these teams are the weaker teams in the competition. To help foster the game in these parts of the world, the GAA allow London and New York to play their first games at home. In the period 2008-11 both teams lost their opening game in each year. If these games are removed then the winning percentage for home teams in the Connacht championship is 50% and the away team wins just under 44% of the time.

For the record, Dublin footballers have an impressive 81% win rate in Croke Park over the 2008-11 period.  It would require a more detailed analysis to say how much of this is due to them being a good team and how much is down to home advantage.