The Economics of Sport
  • Sports Economics
  • About
  • Workshop
  • Selected Publications
  • Book Reviews
  • A Primer on Gaelic Games
  • Upcoming Events
  • Media
  • Education
  • Resources & Links
  • Data

Analytics and Fourth Down

2/12/2021

 
By John Considine
Earlier this week I watched Seattle Seahawks play the Washington Football Team.  On their last drive of the game, Washington led by 8 and had an "easy" opportunity for a field goal on fourth down.  A field goal would have probably sealed the game.  Instead they opted to seek a touchdown.  They failed.  Seattle went the length of the field on their drive, scored a touchdown, and would have tied the game if their two-point attempt succeeded.  What influenced the Washington decision and did analytics play a role?

Ever since David Romer's paper "Do Firms Maximize?", a paper that examines the fourth down decision of NFL coaches, there seems to be an acceptance that the expected points approach is the appropriate way to examine virtually all such situations.  However, there may be situations where it is difficult to have a lot of confidence in the expected points approach.  The situation in the Seattle - Washington game might be an example.  Many commentators suggested that a key factor in the decision was the injury to the Washington kicker earlier in the game.  How much data was available on the potential success of any replacement kicker (or an injured kicker)?  How many attempts did they have in NFL games?  How many from this distance?  How many in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter?  How many with the team 8 ahead?  The number of observations on which to base any decision is likely to be very small.

That is not to say that a small amount of data on a kicker of a football does not add value.  Goalkeepers in the English Premier League like to keep data on a small number of penalty kicks by opposing players.  On the left hand side of the picture is the water bottle of one goalkeeper with data on West Ham United penalty kickers.  There is only a small number of kicks for each kicker but there does seem to be an element of predictability.  It is not exactly "big data" but it might be helpful.  We might call it "small analytics".
Picture
Even where there is access to big data we need to be careful in how it is used.  One takeaway from Romer's paper is that play-callers were conditioned by what was done in the past.  Conventions were established, e.g. kick/punt on fourth down.  In expected points terms, these conventions left some points on the field.  Romer acknowledged that the conventions might be explained by other decision making criteria.  However, in expected point terms these conventions were mistakes.  They were mistakes given the expected points from kicking compared to going for it on fourth down.

It is possible that Romer's paper changed the convention.  Brian Goff clearly suggests that Bill Belichick's play-calling was influenced by his knowledge of the paper (Goff has a chapter in Sports Economics Uncut called "Bill Belichick as economist").  Would the results be replicated with data from 20 years after the original paper?

Most would object to using Romer's data to guide play-calling in 2021.  It is clearly from a different era.  Different rules, different players.  But players are constantly changing.  How does Bill Belichick or Josh McDaniels use the data to guide decisions for the rookie quarterback?  They may be willing to pay the expected points price in some situations in order to develop Mac Jones.  Maybe the Washington Head Coach, (Riverboat) Ron Rivera, was not just betting on the current situation.  Maybe he was gathering data on the ability of his quarterback to convert.  Or he may have been investing in the development of his quarterback by providing him with the experience (passing up the chance to give any alternative kicker an opportunity).  Even if the analytics did not support Rivera's decision, we should not automatically assume he was incorrect.  I support Romer's approach but not to the exclusion of all other possibilities.

Comments are closed.

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013

    About

    This website was founded in July 2013.

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    American Football
    Athletics
    Baseball
    Basketball
    Behavioural Economics
    Boxing
    Broadcasting
    Competitive Balance
    Cricket
    Cycling
    Darts
    David Butler
    Declan Jordan
    Drugs
    Ed Valentine
    Epl
    Esports
    Expenditure
    F1
    Fifa World Cup
    Finances
    Funding
    Gaa
    Gaelic Games
    Gambling
    Game Theory
    Gary Burns
    Geography
    Golf
    Greyhound Racing
    Guest Posts
    Horse Racing
    Impact Studies
    John Considine
    John Eakins
    League Of Ireland
    Location
    Media
    Mls
    Mma
    Olympics
    Participation
    Paul O'Sullivan
    Premier League
    Regulation
    Research
    Robbie Butler
    Rugby
    Simpsonomics
    Snooker
    Soccer
    Spatial Analysis
    Sporting Bodies
    Stephen Brosnan
    Swimming
    Taxation
    Teaching
    Technology
    Tennis
    Transfers
    Uefa
    Ufc
    World Cup
    Wwe

Related

The website is not formally affiliated to any institution and all of the entries represent the personal views and opinions of an individual contributor. The website operates on a not-for-profit basis. For this reason we decline all advertisement opportunities. 

Contact

To contact us email sportseconomics2013@gmail.com or find us on Twitter @SportEcon.