The Economics of Sport
  • Sports Economics
  • About
  • Workshop
  • Selected Publications
  • Book Reviews
  • A Primer on Gaelic Games
  • Upcoming Events
  • Media
  • Education
  • Resources & Links
  • Data

Aleksandar Mitrovic & The Challenge of Promotion

8/8/2018

 
By David Butler

Fulham recently signed striker Aleksandar Mitrovic for a reported £22m transfer fee from Newcastle. Mitrovic scored 12 goals in 20 games in the 17/18 Championship while on loan at Fulham. The Serbian international wasn’t Fulham’s top goal scorer last season but held an impressive goal-to-game ratio.

Stepping up to the Premier League for Championship goalscorers is always a difficult task. While I doubt anyone would expect a Championship player to replicate their form at a higher level, measuring the gap between second and first tier football interests me.

The table below tracks the top goal scorers for promoted clubs since the start of the Premier League. Each player’s goal to game (GTG) ratio for the season in which they are promoted (Tier 2 - GTG Ratio) is compared to their Premier League goal to game ratio for their first season in the top flight (Tier 1 - GTG Ratio). Some players are excluded as they were transferred out, their contract expired or they incurred a serious injury (e.g. Tommy Moonie, David Speedie, Iwan Roberts and Svetoslav Todorov). For two others I couldn’t get the data from Soccerbase.com (Stan Collymore and Gifton Noel-Williams).  
​
With the exception of Andy Carroll (Newcastle), all of the other promoted top goalscorers saw a decrease in their GTG ratio when promoted. This would be expected, and is probably due to various factors associated with playing at a higher level, some of which may not be solely down to the individual in question (i.e. clubs may bring in new talent that take penalties etc.) 
Picture
Some interesting cases arise. John McGinlay (Bolton) seems to be one of the first tier-two goalscorers that just couldn’t replicate his early form in the Premier League. From time-to-time we see these interesting cases, where prolific goalscorers at a tier two level, can’t make the grade. Twice McGinlay was top goalscorer for Bolton during promotion seasons, with GTG ratios of 0.43 and 0.61. These fell to 0.19 and 0.20 respectively upon promotion. Bolton played in the 95/96 season and McGinlay was sold during the 97/98 Premier League campaign – perhaps the club learned from past mistakes.

Despite the GTG ratio decline some players still stepped up to the mark in the Premier League – Charlie Austin (QPR), Andy Johnson (Crystal Palace) and, of course, Kevin Phillips (Sunderland) are examples of players with an impressive GTG ratio following promotion. Other scored plenty of goals too in their first season despite having more game time. Examples include Dean Sturridge (Derby), Chris Armstrong (Crystal Palace), Matt Jansen (Blackburn), Michael Ricketts (Bolton), Marlon Harewood (West Ham) and Grant Holt (Norwich).

At the other end of the spectrum, several top goal scorers for promoted clubs have tanked spectacularly in terms of appearances and GTG ratio; Craig Maskell (Swindon) and David Connolly (Sunderland) both failed to score with their promoted club but neither received much of an opportunity. Graham Dorrans (WBA), Abel Taarabt (QPR), and last season Dwight Gayle (Newcastle) and Elias Kachunga (Huddersfield), are examples of goalscorers at a Championship level who appeared plenty of times but didn’t come anywhere close to replicating the goals they scored the previous season.

Perhaps others are victims of their own success. Pierre van Hooijdonk stand outs. The Dutchman has one of the most impressive tier-two records from the list, scoring 34 goals in 46 games when Nottingham Forrest were promoted from the second tier. Upon promotion, van Hooijdonk went on strike due to the on-goings at the club and only agreed to return in November. He didn’t play as much and scored just 7 times. Forrest duly finished bottom.

One final case is noteworthy; that of Marcus Stewart (Sunderland). In the 2004-2005 Championship season, Stewart fired the Black Cats to promotion scoring 17 goals in 46 appearances. The story goes however that at 33, Stewart  decided he was too old to play Premier League football, and instead opted to join Bristol City. 

While the GTG ratio’s are dispersed, on average, promoted top goalscorers are scoring one goal in just over every two games at a tier-two level. Once promoted to the Premier League, the average falls to one goal in just over every four games. Eyeballing the data, there doesn’t seem to be any trend. It’s not as if GTG ratio’s for these players are following any pattern over time.

With this in mind, it will be interesting to keep an eye on Mitrovic this season and all the top goalscorers for all promoted clubs. Expect Diogo Jota (Wolves), Junior Hoilett (Cardiff) and Ryan Sessegnon (Fulham) to face a tough season.

Comments are closed.

    Archives

    March 2023
    February 2023
    January 2023
    December 2022
    November 2022
    October 2022
    September 2022
    August 2022
    July 2022
    June 2022
    May 2022
    April 2022
    March 2022
    February 2022
    January 2022
    December 2021
    November 2021
    October 2021
    September 2021
    August 2021
    July 2021
    June 2021
    May 2021
    April 2021
    March 2021
    February 2021
    January 2021
    December 2020
    November 2020
    October 2020
    September 2020
    August 2020
    July 2020
    June 2020
    May 2020
    April 2020
    March 2020
    February 2020
    January 2020
    December 2019
    November 2019
    October 2019
    September 2019
    August 2019
    June 2019
    May 2019
    April 2019
    March 2019
    February 2019
    January 2019
    December 2018
    November 2018
    October 2018
    September 2018
    August 2018
    July 2018
    June 2018
    May 2018
    April 2018
    March 2018
    February 2018
    January 2018
    December 2017
    November 2017
    October 2017
    September 2017
    August 2017
    July 2017
    June 2017
    May 2017
    April 2017
    March 2017
    February 2017
    January 2017
    December 2016
    November 2016
    October 2016
    September 2016
    August 2016
    July 2016
    June 2016
    May 2016
    April 2016
    March 2016
    February 2016
    January 2016
    December 2015
    November 2015
    October 2015
    September 2015
    August 2015
    July 2015
    June 2015
    May 2015
    April 2015
    March 2015
    February 2015
    January 2015
    December 2014
    November 2014
    October 2014
    September 2014
    August 2014
    July 2014
    June 2014
    May 2014
    April 2014
    March 2014
    February 2014
    January 2014
    December 2013
    November 2013
    October 2013
    September 2013
    August 2013
    July 2013

    About

    This website was founded in July 2013.

    RSS Feed

    Categories

    All
    American Football
    Athletics
    Baseball
    Basketball
    Behavioural Economics
    Boxing
    Broadcasting
    Competitive Balance
    Cricket
    Cycling
    Darts
    David Butler
    Declan Jordan
    Drugs
    Ed Valentine
    Epl
    Esports
    Expenditure
    F1
    Fifa World Cup
    Finances
    Funding
    Gaa
    Gaelic Games
    Gambling
    Game Theory
    Gary Burns
    Geography
    Golf
    Greyhound Racing
    Guest Posts
    Horse Racing
    Impact Studies
    John Considine
    John Eakins
    League Of Ireland
    Location
    Media
    Mls
    Mma
    Olympics
    Participation
    Paul O'Sullivan
    Premier League
    Regulation
    Research
    Robbie Butler
    Rugby
    Simpsonomics
    Snooker
    Soccer
    Spatial Analysis
    Sporting Bodies
    Stephen Brosnan
    Swimming
    Taxation
    Teaching
    Technology
    Tennis
    Transfers
    Uefa
    Ufc
    World Cup
    Wwe

Related

The website is not formally affiliated to any institution and all of the entries represent the personal views and opinions of an individual contributor. The website operates on a not-for-profit basis. For this reason we decline all advertisement opportunities. 

Contact

To contact us email sportseconomics2013@gmail.com or find us on Twitter @SportEcon.