By Robbie Butler

Tokyo must be cursing their luck. What is it about the Japanese capital and cancellation of the Summer Olympics Games? The 2020 gathering were set to be the 29th installment of the modern Games, have first started back in Athens in 1896.

Organisers of the 2020 Games will be very much aware that the last time the event was cancelled, with everything in place, was back in 1940 with Tokyo set to host their first Games. London was subsequently cancelled in 1944, having been awarded the Games, but little planning was ever put into the event.

The cancellation of 1940 put to an end 5 Summer Games in a row (1920-1936). This was preceded by five Games in a row from Athens in 1896 to Stockholm in 1912. World War 1 broke the link. 

Based on these earlier experiences, where the world managed to string just 5 Games in a row before major disruption hit, the recent run of 19 Games is quite remarkable. It demonstrates the stability of the world order since 1945 and the general success in avoiding major upheaval on a global scale. Covid-19 has put an end of this run. 

We have taken this and many other things for granted. I recently read a tweet that said how unlucky someone born in the year 1990 has been. They have lived through a global financial crisis and now global pandemic by 30. But what about 1900? These people lived through a pandemic, world war and depression by the time they were 30. A second war was on the way.  If you were Russian this also included a revolution. 19 Games in a row is proof of the success of many global institutions, both economic and political.

Had we followed a similar pattern to the past, following the cancellation of Tokyo in 1940, the Games would have restarted in 1948 in London for a chain of 5. This would have meant London, Helsinki (1952), Melbourne (1956), Rome (1960) and Tokyo (1964). ​At least the Japanese city would have missed out of losing the Games again...just.

By Robbie Butler

Ireland's Economic and Social Research Institute have issued revised scenarios for economic activity in 2020. The projections have changed from gross domestic product increasing by around 3.5%, to a deep contraction in the order of 7.1%. 

Some have argued already that 7.1% might be on the conservative side, and that the Irish economy, which is driven by exports and imports, could contract by an even greater extent. Might we even surpass the 9% contraction of 2009 in the depths of the Irish banking crisis?

The fallout from the crisis will be extensive and long-lasting. The economic, political and social ramifications will probably last years. Right now however, the focus is on getting from one day to the next. Sadly, another 10 people lost their lives yesterday in Ireland due to Covid-19. This brings the total number here to 19. We can only hope that the actions of the vast majority of Irish people, and people around the world, will help slow the spread of this virus, so than 

Such actions have come at a cost. Restriction of movement requires sacrifices. Not seeing family, grandparents in particular, isn't easy. However, it is a price that is worth paying. Movements have been largely reduced to essential activities - basically trips to the supermarket or pharmacy.

The other form of movement encouraged is physical exercise. People have been advised to stay active by walking, jogging or running. This benefits both physical and mental health.

It seems to be very successful. I have noticed a marked increase in the number of people passing our house, at various speeds, over the past 2 weeks. In fact, the number seems to be growing daily. Not only have I witnessed this, but I have also been part of the increase.

Normally at this time of the year, my road running distance covered would be 0km. This only starts in mid to late April with our focus on the Cork City Marathon in early June. 2020 has been different. So far this year I have run nearly 26km in the past 9 days. I suspect this will grow in the weeks ahead, despite the cancellation of the Cork City Marathon until September.

The Covid-19 pandemic is going to leave many legacy effects. People might queue much further apart in shops in the years ahead. Handshakes might become a thing of the past. Working from home may become more frequent. Let's hope greater physical activity becomes habit and is retained long after this crisis passed. And pass it will. 

On the 30th of September 1859, Abraham Lincoln recounted the following story:
It is said an Eastern monarch once charged his wise men to invent him a sentence, to be ever in view, and which should be true and appropriate in all times and situations. They presented him the words: "And this, too, shall pass away."  How much it expresses! How chastening in the hour of pride! How consoling in the depths of affliction!

By Robbie Butler

While most popular team sports globally follow a playing season that mirrors that of the academic cycle (Aug-May), there are some examples of those that do not. On these islands netball, rugby league and most domestic soccer in Ireland are exceptions and play through the summer. However, the most obvious example of this in Ireland can be witnessed in Gaelic Games (GAA).

While GAA is now effectively played all year round with clubs, county, schools and 3rd level matches scheduled from January to December, the most significant games are held between around April and September. Under normal circumstances we would all be preparing for upcoming inter-county games across all codes of the sport (football and hurling). Sadly, Covid-19 has put pay to this and one can only wonder when the Championships will commence.

The competition design of these must now be under consideration. For more than 100 years, counties played each other based on geographic location, across 4 different provinces. A straight knockout system was employed so that the 4 area winners met in 2 semi-finals and a final. The winner of the final was crowned the All-Ireland Champion. 

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, both hurling and football deviated from the traditional competition style and a "back-door system" was introduced. Put simply, this separated the provincial championships and All-Ireland series so that counties had 2 chances of success but could only be beaten once in either competition.

Further changes have happened over the years and the system is now quite complicated for passive observers. For example, the football championship goes from knock-out (Provincial Championship) to league (Super 8s) to knock-out (All-Ireland). The upshot of all these competition changes is more games. More games means more tickets sold in total (average match attendance has declined) and more broadcasting revenue.

Attendees at our recent research event in county Kerry will also know that the design changes also decreased competitive balance. John Considine's research demonstrated this and provided an insight into how stronger teams are now more dominant. Removing a straight knockout reduced the role of luck and has made it harder for underdogs to win outright. 

The pandemic we find ourselves in has seen the postponement of the GAA Championships. Assuming it can restart in June or July, this could mean a reduction in the number of games. Could a return to the traditional knockout format be the solution? It served us well for more than 100 years and could be employed for a one-off event under these unprecedented circumstance. 

If straight knockout is introduced, the chances of a shock winner will increase. Less traditionally successful teams would only have to beat one of the "big" counties once to end their season. The likes of Dublin, Kerry, Kilkenny and Tipperary will only get once chance. It could result in winners like Galway, Wexford, Mayo or Waterford. The latter two are waiting a combined 130 years to regain the titles that last one.  

For example, in 2004 Wexford shocked Kilkenny to win the Leinster Championship. Waterford did the same in Munster to win only their seond title since 1963. Under the old rules both would have reached the semi-finals and competed with Antrim and Galway. One, if not both, would have almost certainly made the Final. Neither was in the All-Ireland Final. Instead Cork played Kilkenny, both of which had lost their respective provincial finals.

What excitement a return to a straight knockout would bring. Competitive balance may be the biggest winner of all. 

By Robbie Butler

In our latest post “Economic Impact of Sport in the EU” John explored the economic impact of sport in the EU. It can be seen from the bubbles in the graphic that Ireland is lower than in most countries, with sport accounting for 1.68% of total employment and 1.03% GDP. The impact that the cessation of sports fixtures as a result of Covid-19 will therefore be smaller on the Irish economy than it is in many other EU states.

It is interesting to consider this further.

There is very little professional sport in Ireland. The most recent CSO sports module in 2013 found that almost all sport in Ireland is non-professional. Rugby reported the highest number of professional/semi-professional athletes at 5.1%. Other professional sports people in Ireland are found in dance and gym related activities. Then there are the elite individual athletes that are either funded through Sport Ireland or very successful in their sport and are household names e.g. Shane Lowry and Katie Taylor spring to mind.

After rugby, the only other team sport with sizable employment is soccer. However, just 0.2% of players here are paid. The domestic league probably employees about 400-500 players on professional and semi-professional contracts. Clubs are now in serious financial trouble as fixtures have ground to a halt. The primary source of income is gate receipts and one can only wonder what is going to happen to players and other staff in the coming weeks. (More on this next week).

It is interesting to compare the current fate of the League of Ireland with another Irish sport – horse racing. Horse racing is not considered a “sport” but rather an industry in Ireland for data purposes and probably employees about 3,500-5,000 people directly. Indirect employment is much higher. If direct employees were included, the number of professional sports people working in Ireland would jump considerably.

Horse racing continues in Ireland – behind closed doors. Today Dundalk goes ahead. Tomorrow Thurles. Down Royal is on Sunday. Naas Monday. Clonmel Tuesday. Dundalk again next Wednesday. And Cork next Thursday.

Irish soccer cannot proceed like this. The reason racing can is because gate receipts are not terribly important. The broadcasting agreement with Racing TV trumps this. Irish soccer has no major broadcasting agreement. It suffers badly because of this.
​
The domestic game in Ireland will require support if it is to survive. This might mean State support through Sport Ireland or elsewhere. No domestic league means no national team. No Euro 2021. No World Cup in 2022.

By Robbie Butler

Regular readers of this blog will be familiar with posts I have written on sports broadcasting. There is a dedicated tab to the topic here. A common theme that runs through these is the ability of suppliers (broadcasters) to extract an economic profit from those seeking the product, often by virtue of the monopoly they hold in the market.

If anecdotal evidence is anything to go by, the past 5-7 days has seen an dramatic shift in power from supplier to consumer. Subscription sports channels throughout Europe, North America and elsewhere have seen their live content evaporate in a matter if days. The postponement of football, basketball, formula one, tennis, golf, and the list goes on, has surely resulted in a surge in cancellations of sports subscription channels. 

From experience, cancelling these is difficult in normal times. One can only imagine what it is like now. It begs the question, how will the providers respond?

Could a reduction in price be on the cards? Or cancellation of the March/April charges? 

A 2015 Ofcom Report which I wrote about here in 2016 identified "which specific sports and competitions within sports are important to subscribers". If these are no longer being provided to subscribers is it fair to charge full price, or even charge at all? 

It might be time for sports channels to rethink their present strategy.

By Robbie Butler

​As the Coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to spread throughout the world, many sporting fixtures are having to be rescheduled,  postponed or cancelled entirely. Some of the more obvious examples of this have been a Seria A fixture between Inter Milan and Sampdoria, upcoming fixtures in Genoa, Bergamo, Ferrara and Turin (all in the North of the country), as well as Six Nations games between Ireland and Italy, and Italy and England. There has been less obvious sporting cancellations too,  such as the Top Rank Boxing event due to take place in China last month. 

Turning to the Six Nations, Italy were due in Dublin this weekend. The Italian men were set to take on the Ireland on Saturday, while the women were due to face the Ireland women's team on Sunday afternoon. Both games have been cancelled and speculation about the economic consequences has commenced. 

Such fixture postponements are rare (although Ireland Six Nations rugby games were postponed in 2001 due to the Foot and Mouth outbreak in the UK) and provide a fitting setting to examine a branch of economics that first students will meet in introductory lectures; substitution and income effects. The postponement of both games will have an effect but it is probably nothing like what people expect. 

For instance, the match on Saturday at the Avivia Stadium was due to have around 51,700. The vast bulk of these people would have been from Ireland. Probably 95% or more. The postponement of the game means that these people will simply substitute their spending to something else - most likely in Ireland.

Some sectors of the economy do feel the postponement worse than others. Pubs around the Aviva, as well as transport services, restaurants and hotels all take a hit, but someone else probably gains. The money doesn't disappear. After all, one of the functions of money is that it is a "store of value". If the game goes ahead at some point - which is more than likely - those that lost out this time should gain later down the road. The net effect might be neutral. All that will have is that the time of consumption is pushed back.  Ireland Inc. loses little or nothing either way from the 95% of domestic fans.

The 5% that were due to support Italy might be lost. This is an income effect. If they fail to travel, the money that would have been spent in Dublin does 'disappear'. However, if flights have been paid for (with Ryanair) and hotels booking with cancellation fees, the losses might be much smaller than expected. Many could still probably still travel to Dublin. The losers here are again the services in and around the stadium, but winners will exist elsewhere. Maybe other tourist attractions. 

By Robbie Butler

We are in beautiful South-West Kerry this afternoon and will bring our second sports economics event on to the Ring of Kerry at Caherviceen Library.

Among other things, the town is famous for being the birthplace of Irish political heavyweight Daniel O'Connell. O'Connell was the preeminent force in Irish politics during  the first half of the 19th century, campaigning for Catholic emancipation and a repeal of the Acts of Union which combined Great Britain and Ireland. In 1829 he achieved Catholic emancipation in Ireland and is today often referred to as simply The Liberator or The Emancipator. 

Fittingly, our event today has a uniquely Irish theme and considers economic, social and sporting issues in Gaelic Games. Throw-in is at 4.30pm and all are welcome. 

By Robbie Butler,

When teaching undergraduate students’ introductory economics, I speak about different market structures at an early point. The classification of these, from perfect competition at one extreme to monopoly at the other, is aided by using examples. Sport can help here. There are many examples of sports operating as “monopolies”. For example, The International Olympic Committee has a monopoly right on the sale of the Summer and Winter Olympic Games. They use this power to maximise their position with would-be-host cities.

The Major League Baseball has an effective monopoly of professional baseball in the United States. It administers the 15 teams in the National League (NL) and 15 in the American League (AL). MLB also oversees Minor League Baseball, which comprises 256 teams affiliated with the major league clubs. The owners of these franchises often operate as a monopsony - a market situation in which there is only one buyer – and use their power to maximise their welfare.

The next step from monopoly is a duopoly - a situation in which two suppliers dominate the market for a commodity or service. Golf can provide a nice illustration of this. While not a perfect representation of an industry with just 2 suppliers, the PGA Tour based in the United States and PGA European Tour are an effective duopoly. There are other professional tours (the Japan Golf Tour or the Southern Africa–based Sunshine Tour) but few can compete in money terms with the US or Europe. For example, the top golfer in Japan would rank about 40th in European Tour money standing. The leading US player earns about 3 times are much as those in Europe.

The power of the PGA Tour and European Tour has worked well for decades. However, change may be afoot with recent talk of the Premier Golf League. This would involve the worlds best players in the US and Europe, creating their own tour of about 48 players, and playing weekly competitions over 54 rather than 72 holes. Leading players have suggested that they do not play each other outside of the 4 Majors and the Player’s Championship (5 events in total) and that there is demand for more frequent battles between the world’s best.

Both current tours could not be impressed. This is not dissimilar to a decision by 22 English Football Clubs in the early 1990s who decided to break away from an administrator founded in 1888. The English Premier League was born, and the rest is history.

It may be that case that the duopoly of golf is coming to an end. If the Premier Golf League is successful the supply of professional golf will not be the same again.

By Robbie Butler

The 25th season of Major League Soccer will kick-off at the end of next month and will include David Beckham's new franchise Inter Miami CF and Tennessee franchise Nashville SC. This will bring the total number of teams to 26 – the highest to date.

Inter Miami will form part of the Eastern Conference, while Nashville SC will join the Western Conference. This, despite the fact that the Nissan Stadium, home of Nashville, is more easterly than Soldier Field, the home of Chicago Fire who play in the Eastern Conference. The arrival of the new franchises, and the division they play in, got me thinking about the distances these teams must travel weekly in order to fulfill fixtures.

I recall Steven Gerrard’s time with LA Galaxy and comments by the former Liverpool player that the travel involved playing MLS was exhausting. This is especially true when one compares it to the Premier League in England.

In early January, Liverpool played Everton in an FA Cup 3rd round game. During a stoppage in play, a drone above the stadium moved slightly northwards, and Everton’s Goodison Park came into view. There is less than 1 mile between the two stadiums. For newly recruited players of Inter Miami, their 'derby match' with Orlando City SC will require a 205-mile journey north. This is just shy of Liverpool visiting a London club, which is hardly a derby.

The distances a franchise will travel in the MLS arequite something. In this post I considered only the Eastern Conference. The Western Conference would appear far worse. New players for Inter Miami have some serious travel ahead, given Miami’s location. After Orlando, the next closest venue is the 580-mile trip to the magnificent Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, a round trip of nearly 1,200 miles. This is like Liverpool heading to Cologne in Germany.

Inter Miami players will have at least seven trips in the Eastern conference that exceed 1,000 miles one way! The longest being the 1387-mile distance to play Montreal Impact – the greatest distance between two franchises in the Eastern Conference. Liverpool to Rome is almost the exact same distance.

Considering all franchises for the conference, there is probably just one derby, by European standards that is. The 20 miles separating the Yankee Stadium from the Red Bull Arena in New Jersey, homes of the New York City and New York Red Bulls.

Travel distances can be found to have significant impact on performance. I will consider the impact this has on match outcomes in the MLS in a future post. For new recruits of Inter Miami, they better be ready to travel. Although, Nashville SC will make this look short. More to follow on this. 

By Robbie Butler

Casual fans of football might have been surprised to see a score line from the Quarter Final of the Carabao (league) Cup that read Aston Villa 5 - 0 Liverpool. The recently promoted team beat the European Champions comfortably to book their place in the last 4.

What the score line doesn't tell you is that the average age of the Liverpool team was a little over 19. Probably more discrete, but equally telling, is that the sum of the squad numbers for Liverpool was just short of 1,300! That's an average of 72. The lowest number on the back of any Liverpool jersey at Villa Park was the "51" visible on the back of Ki-Jana Hoever. 

While the youngsters were battling against Villa the Liverpool first team was busy preparing in Qatar for the FIFA World Club Championship Semi-Final. Unfortunately for the Merseyside club, fixture congestion meant that the only way the club could compete in both competitions was to hold games within 24 hours of one another. 

There are many reasons why the club decided to priorities a trip to Qatar over Birmingham but probably the most obvious is the chasm in prizemoney available in both. The figures below provide sources of prizemoney for the 2019/20 season. Data for the Premier League is taken from 2018/1 as the variability in winnings are based on the number of appearances on television, as well as finishing position. 

On the left, all competitions that Liverpool will compete in are presented. The Premier League was the source of more than £150 million pounds in prize money last season. In 2019/20 success in the Champions League again would results in a windfall of around £70 million. The FA Cup could be worth almost £7 million in prizemoney.

While the FIFA World Club Championship is worth about half of the FA Cup (£3.75 million) it involves just two games. In fact, just showing up is worth in Qatar is worth £1.5 million to the Red. 

Compare this to winning the Carabao Cup. The figure to the right, takes a closer look at the FIFA World Club Championship and Carabao Cup, as the latter is too small to see on the left-hand graphic. At just £100,000 for the winners it is easy to see why Liverpool chose to head to the sun this week.